Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1294

(+) Yeah! (+)

honestly Isabelle will probably finish bottom ten in the X-Stats
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LeonhartFour posted...

CasanovaZelos posted...

Why do we think this Mewtwo performance is bad? Mewtwo and GlaDOS were next to each other on the 2013 x-stats. I'm sure GlaDOS has fallen a bit, but I think Mewtwo going 62-38 here is actually impressive. GlaDOS isn't Gordon; she actually has a memorable character.

Even as the foremost expert in Mewtwo fraudulence, there's really nothing wrong with this performance. This is pretty much where I pegged this match. It's hard to say where GlaDOS is compared to 2013 (which was already a massive boost from where she was in 2010). Western characters have nearly all noticeably fallen off from 2013, and we don't yet know if GlaDOS is the rare exception.

Kratos?
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LeonhartFour posted...

honestly Isabelle will probably finish bottom ten in the X-Stats

Yeah but

The other characters in the bottom 10 all escaped a quadrupling.

Because none of them were facing something as strong as MMX.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Didn't Ocelot lose to Pac-Man when given MGS1 art?

It was melty MGS2 art, actually.
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Kratos?

and who did Kratos face in round 1

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Yeah but

The other characters in the bottom 10 all escaped a quadrupling.

Because none of them were facing something as strong as MMX.

I'd wager about half of the characters could break 80% on Cayde-6.

Yes, you have to be strong to hit 80% unless you're facing something truly awful, but this isn't just "Mega Man X must be Noble Nine level if he broke 80%"
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Oh okay.

IIRC the one time Ocelot was given his MGS1 art was in Round 1 of 2007, and he did advance.
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I was just saying that Kratos should be stronger now compared to in 2013.
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Seeing X Blue Bombering chumps like it's 2002 (almost) is really warming my heart.
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well we're still a long way from 90%+ but it's nice to see someone finally hit 80%
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Insane future round prediction:
Tifa has actually severely fallen, but we're not noticing because she's actually subtly SFF'ing Geno, being that they are both party members form Square JRPGs released only a year apart.
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CasanovaZelos posted...

Insane future round prediction:
Tifa has actually severely fallen, but we're not noticing because she's actually subtly SFF'ing Geno, being that they are both party members form Square JRPGs released only a year apart.

I mean this isn't the first Square character Geno has faced and this is pretty much always what he does
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CasanovaZelos posted...

Insane future round prediction:
Tifa has actually severely fallen, but we're not noticing because she's actually subtly SFF'ing Geno, being that they are both party members form Square JRPGs released only a year apart.

This was I honestly thought when I saw her at 70%~ which isn't bad per se... but I think she should be at least 75-80% based on how they've both looked in the past

But I think many people just want Tifa to look strong to beat Mewtwo (and possibly X) but I still dont think shes not making it past Mewtwo and definitley not past X with how this contest has been going
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I mean Tifa is only doing about 1% worse than Squall did in 2005

high 70s or even 80% was not a realistic expectation
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LeonhartFour posted...

well we're still a long way from 90%

Link vs Ganondorf maybe?

ZeldaTPLink posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

well we're still a long way from 90%

Link vs Ganondorf maybe?

Nah, if Link couldn't get 90% in 2004, he's not getting it now. He doesn't SFF as hard now as he used to because he gets anti-voted.
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

well we're still a long way from 90%

Link vs Ganondorf maybe?

Enough people will anti-vote Link to prevent that I'd say
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oh right I always forget that it's pointless to respond to anything Ange says

but it still pleases me that it causes him to frequently post completely redundant information
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Still the best 4-pack of the entire bracket.
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It's wild that D3 has such an advantage in the US and is still losing.

5 hours to go, Ocelot! Hold the line!
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ExThaNemesis posted...

It's wild that D3 has such an advantage in the US and is still losing.

5 hours to go, Ocelot! Hold the line!

well it's because Ocelot is winning just about everywhere outside of North America
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Can the 300-vote barrier hold this time?
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LeonhartFour posted...

ExThaNemesis posted...

It's wild that D3 has such an advantage in the US and is still losing.

5 hours to go, Ocelot! Hold the line!

well it's because Ocelot is winning just about everywhere outside of North America

I've always known it but it's still shocking to me how much of a cult Nintendo is in the US
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Ocelot's lead is slightly under 300 votes at the moment. Does anyone know at what time we can expect an after school impact?
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Rexxar500 posted...

Ocelot's lead is slightly under 300 votes at the moment. Does anyone know at what time we can expect an after school impact?

Never. After School Vote is a thing of early contests, nowadays most people who come to this site are over 20.

If you see anyone talking about ASV here, it's a meme.

Surprised that Ocelots holding up so far
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Smash got deboosted because of the direct. Ocelots got this.
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but ocelot himself was in the direct!
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XIII_rocks posted...

I've always known it but it's still shocking to me how much of a cult Nintendo is in the US

Nintendo actually usually does noticeably better in Canada than in the U.S.

Old Square stuff like FFVI and CT do, too, so it might just be a SNES thing.
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What's the largest lead been in this match so far, anyway?
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DanKirby posted...

What's the largest lead been in this match so far, anyway?

308 for Ocelot

206 for Dedede
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Match LVII: (1) Sephiroth vs. (16) Albert Wesker

Previous Contest Performance

Sephiroth - 2013
Round 1: 57.37% against Midna (24.55%) and Little Mac (18.08%)
Round 2: 52.04% against Morrigan Aensland (26.30%) and Spyro the Dragon (21.66%)
Round 3: 37.93% against Kirby (33.65%) and Big Boss (28.42%)
Round 4: 23.06% against Draven (45.07%) and Mewtwo (31.88%)

Albert Wesker - 2013
Round 1: 28.06% against Leon Kennedy (51.21%) and Oliver (20.73%)

Analysis

Sephiroth was the odd character out and was relegated to the main bracket. Based on his 2013 performance he does have a good chance at being the weakest noble nine character. Regardless, he is still the huge favourite at winning this division with only Ryu likely to pose any threat and while the board vote will make him look weak, hell have the rest of the match to increase his percentage.

Wesker was rather unfortunate to be placed against Leon in the last contest, but he surprisingly held up quite well. Sadly, he wont have much of a chance here, but he can provide us with decent information as to how strong Sephiroth will be in this contest.

charmander6000s Bracket: Sephiroth > Albert Wesker

charmander6000s Prediction: Sephiroth wins, 72.47% - 27.53%




Match LVIII: (8) Richter Belmont vs. (9) Captain Falcon

Previous Contest Performance

Richter Belmont - N/A
N/A

Captain Falcon - 2013
Round 1: 35.95% against Alucard (36.32%) and Rydia (27.73%)

Analysis

Thanks to Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, Richter was able to make the bracket. Its quite unlikely that hell be as strong as Simon, but given how well Smash characters have been performing perhaps he has some strength.

Too bad his opponent is Smash fan favourite Captain Falcon. In 2013 Captain Falcon barely lost to Alucard so I doubt he would have an issue with a lesser character from the series. I also doubt that hell get much of a Nintendo boost from this match so well pretty much get to see him at pre-Smash boost.

charmander6000s Bracket: Captain Falcon > Richter Belmont

charmander6000s Prediction: Captain Falcon wins, 66.26% - 33.74%
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Match LIX: (5) Amaterasu vs. (12) Draven

Previous Contest Performance

Amaterasu - 2013
Round 1: 66.79% against Vyse (20.59%) and Adol Christin (12.62%)
Round 2: 24.81% against Squall Leonhart (39.38%) and Missingno (35.81%)

Draven - 2013
Round 1: 40.47% against Jak (33.20%) and Chie Satonaka (26.34%)
Round 2: 66.52% against Mega Man X (19.15%) and Ryu (14.32%)
Round 3: 44.65% against Link (44.02%) and Commander Shepard (11.34%)
Round 4: 45.07% against Mewtwo (31.88%) and Sephiroth (23.06%)
Round 5: 49.13% against Solid Snake (32.81%) and Samus Aran (18.06%)

Analysis

The champion returns. Draven was heavily rallied in 2013 to win the contest. Since then, League of Legends has relatively dropped in popularity and the reddit page has banned rallies, though I imagine some people will try regardless so itll be up to the mod crew to enforce their own rules. Considering what Jak was doing to him before the rally Draven does have a chance at being the weakest character in the bracket, but I imagine his run in 2013 will at least make him recognizable to some people. Which may be helpful in this match.

Amaterasus strength has always perplexed me in these contests. While other characters from new IPs have been flopping, I feel Amaterasu will be an exception. Okami still performed well during the games contest. Regardless, unless a rally occurs she should have no issue winning this match. Though next round may be tough should she lose significant strength.

charmander6000s Bracket: Amaterasu > Draven

charmander6000s Prediction: Amateraus wins, 73.51% - 26.49%




Match LX: (4) Lara Croft vs. (13) Metal Man

Previous Contest Performance

Lara Croft - 2013
Round 1: 57.55% against Slime (32.46%) and Yuri Hyuga (10.00%)
Round 2: 28.82% against Kefka (41.93%) and Altair (29.26%)

Metal Man - N/A
N/A

Analysis

How strong will a random boss in Mega Man be? Not very, I imagine. Together the series can make Mega Man into a noble nine character, but separately the games have been shown to be quite weak. Metal Man is a great example of the difference of strength a character can have if the game/series they are from was listed. If a significant portion of voters can recognize that hes a Mega Man boss there is a chance that he may not be terrible fodder.

Lara Croft has had a bit of a revival since we last saw her, though I dont feel that will translate in much of a boost. Still, she should have no issue in winning this match. Given that Kefka has shown to retain his strength, if the same was to apply for Lara we may have an interesting match next round. Too bad we wont get much information from this match.

charmander6000s Bracket: Lara Croft > Metal Man

charmander6000s Prediction: Lara Croft wins, 69.31% - 30.69%
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Master Hand boost with the new Smash trailer?
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AxemRedRanger posted...

but ocelot himself was in the direct!

And it was MGS3 Ocelot, too! Even Nintendo recognizes what the best Ocelot is!

also those Hands have a One-Winged Angel vibe to them

Sephiroth for Smash?!
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LeonhartFour posted...

XIII_rocks posted...

I've always known it but it's still shocking to me how much of a cult Nintendo is in the US

Nintendo actually usually does noticeably better in Canada than in the U.S.

Old Square stuff like FFVI and CT do, too, so it might just be a SNES thing.

N64 was big here in Canada too, relative to elsewhere, I think.
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damn it charmander how am i supposed to pass you when we keep having the same picks? im 1 point back and its been like this for at least 3 matches now. i suspect i will fall off the table during the second round so im probably going to have my highest percentile after the current match or the next.
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I mean what else are you likely going to pick in tomorrow's matches?
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its not just tomorrow, its today and the day before and i think the day before that.
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What if Draven DOES get a rally

Are we mentally and emotionally prepared for this
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So Dedede can win? Or not?
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Nanis23 posted...

What if Draven DOES get a rally

Are we mentally and emotionally prepared for this

No one can prepare their butts for that.

I don't think I'll give a damn. We've been through that twice already.

Safer_777 posted...

So Dedede can win? Or not?

I mean he can. He just needs to cut 9.51 votes per update to win, but he hasn't shown any indication of being able to cut consistently.

But we might break the record for closest wire to wire 24-hour match again just a few days after Garrus/Ramza broke it.
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BTW congrats for MMX to be the first one to finish above 80% this contest (it's not over yet, but come on)
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All the complaining about Dedede winning... and he doesn't. Way to go, guys.
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of course after I say that Dedede's got the lead down to the lowest it's been in over 3.5 hours so maybe it's not over yet
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Too bad Ken missed the bracket. He could have been a decent midcarder.
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well Ken could've been eliminated by now even if he had gotten in
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I still believe that direct did absolutely nothing to this match.

Now cmon Ocelot
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Good pushback by Ocelot.

With exactly 2 hours to go, Dedede needs to cut 10.04 votes per update to win.
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