Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

(+) Yeah! (+)

it's been extremely rare this year that we've had a 5-0 consensus and lost
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Round 3 2B vs. Bowser

Moltars Analysis

2B
Round 1 - 77.80% vs. Cayde-6
Round 2 - 53.72% vs. Ness

Bowser
Round 1 - 77.39% vs. Gordon Freeman
Round 2 - 56.55% vs. Charizard

2Bowser?

The newcomer has done very well for herself in getting this far. Beating Ness means shes somewhat legit, which for a new character on GameFAQs is highly impressive.

Now she runs up against Bowser, and this is most likely where 2Bs run ends. Bowser looks strong as ever, putting up a good showing on Charizard. If 2B can break 40% here, that would definitely solidify her as the strongest newcomer in the bracket.

Moltars Bracket: Bowser

Moltars Prediction: Bowser 62%

transiences Analysis

2B seems like the contest's underdog, despite her #1 seed status. I think she's a feel-good story that might attract some compassion votes, especially against a contest fixture like Bowser. She doesn't have a major upset to her name so she's not like 2013 Vivi or 2005 Knuckles, but she'll do better than she should. Then, next year, (or in 5 years) she'll get a competitive match and drop it.

transience's prediction: Bowser with 58.35%

Leonharts Analysis

Its time to find out what 2B is really worth! Her win over Ness is pretty impressive considering the current state of the contests where newer characters rarely display midcard level strength anymore. Itll be interesting to see if she can hold on to that strength down the line though because weve seen some new characters look strong but then cant retain it a few years later (looking at you, Shepard), but thats a story for a future contest.

Long story short, Bowsers going to win this easily. Im not really sure what would be considered an impressive showing for 2B though. I feel like breaking 40% is probably out of reach, but maybe she can get close to that.

Leonharts Vote: Bowser

Leonharts Prediction: Bowser with 62.53%

Kleenexs Analysis

Time to finally see how good 2B actually is. She doesnt have any shot to win this match - Bowser has looked too dang good this year - but she can still put up some impressive numbers to prove her status as a decent midcarder. I hope she does great, but this is likely just a minor speed bump for Bowser en route to a big match against Kirby next round.

Kleenexs Prediction: Bowser with 60%

Crew Consensus: This cannot continue. We all watch 2B lose and become as gods.
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and the Guest was doing so well the last several days too
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Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx4

Trainer Red vs Big Boss
Well this should be an easy win for Red after seeing Red narrowly beat Sora and Big Boss squeak by Crash

Leonhart's Analysis posted...
Would anyone really be surprised if Crash Bandicoot got 47-48% on Sora?

Hurkh... urgh... ERROR_ERROR. ... nah. Let's not quite go that far, but let's rein in the percents I guess.

Red with 51.45%

Alucard vs Kefka
Alucard SFFed Yuna. I stand by that and don't just make this a Yuna vs Bomberman gimme. Alucard probably won't SFF Kefka due to him being TOO OLD SCHOOL so this one will actually be a tough one to call. I still like Alucard to squeak by here, though.

Alucard with 53.97%

2B vs Bowser
I can only accept 2B as so low when Tails beats Master Chief and 2B beats the guy who beat the guy who beat Sonic the Edgehog convincingly. 2B defying all odds I believe has some strength here. She didn't squeak by some gutter trash like the likes of Ocelot or Shepard? Does she have a lot? Well... probably not... a lot... but enough to beat Charizard's percentage? Hell yeah, why not! Dude's a fraud anyway, right guys? Right.

Bowser with 55.22%

Kirby vs Phoenix Wright
Please destroy the enemies, Kirby. ... you're my only hope left to have some fun results in this contest. You must defeat Phoenix convincingly to be the favorite against Bowser. ;_;

Kirby with 65.87%
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Alucard is the old-school guy.
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Listen man I know he was in Castlevania 3 well but in terms of fishy overlap he's had it more convincingly with new Square not old Square which the jury is still out on. Also I think Kefka resists SFF better in general anyway.
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Round 3 Phoenix Wright vs. Kirby

Moltars Analysis

Phoenix
Round 1 - 56.93% vs. Chris Redfield
Round 2 - 50.67% vs. Ike

Kirby
Round 1 - 74.54% vs. Guile
Round 2 - 70.29% vs. Isaac

Another underdog run ends today as Phoenix goes up against the brick wall that is Kirby. This is a really bad opponent for Phoenix too. Against someone like Ike, who people dont care super strongly about, Phoenix can grab voters. Kirby is someone thats much more recognizable and much more beloved.

That means I wouldnt be surprised if Phoenix under-performed here.

Moltars Bracket: Kirby

Moltars Prediction: Kirby 66%

transiences Analysis

Phoenix did an awesome job holding off Ike. Kirby's like 2-3 levels above Ike though, and has a good early vote to boot. No one's got an early vote like Phoenix outside of board 8-friendly jokes but Kirby will probably be able to lead after the first minute and could rise to heaven from there. It'll be fun to compare Phoenix and 2B for the much-anticipated Bowser/Kirby rematch. It's so hard to read those two correctly, but I guess you could say they're about equal when going off of Ike and Ness.

transience's prediction: Kirby with 63.48%

Leonharts Analysis

Like with 2B, Im not sure what would be considered a good performance for Phoenix. Regardless, hes already had his one shining moment, so anything beyond this is gravy for him. Looking ahead to next round, I feel like 2B and Phoenix are probably relatively close in strength, so if Kirby can really shoot beyond what Bowser got (or vice-versa), that would speak well for his chances in the big showdown next round. Its quite a conundrum for me here! I want Phoenix to look good, but I also want Kirby to win next round! I guess Ive gotta think big picture here!

Leonharts Vote: Phoenix Wright

Leonharts Prediction: Kirby with 64.17%

Kleenexs Analysis

Phoenix even being here is a miracle in and of itself. The dream definitely ends today, but much like 2B, its still great to see him get this far, and I hope he does well. Kirby really just needs to do his thing and get ready for next round.

Kleenexs Prediction: Kirby with 60%
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Guests Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII

Well, heres the big test of Phoenixs newfound strength. I mean, we all watched him beat a pic-sabotaged Vincent last contest but the contest before that he lost to a non-playable character from FFX. Then again, huge swings in strength between consecutive contests arent so weird given that were literally further removed from CBVIII than CBVIII was from CBI. And the conventional wisdom is that Ike gains most of his strength from Smash rather than from his own games. Isnt the same true of Kirby? I mean, honestly, Fire Emblem has done a lot more in Games Contests than Kirby ever has. 3 games from the series have made contests, with a combined record of 3-5one win for each of the three games, plus two first-round losses for one of them, both in SFF situations. (Except not really because the consensus among those who had actually played both FFTA and FE7 was that the latter is the better game. So really, FE7s first loss was attributable to the fact that Fire Emblem wasnt a recognizable name yet, and it was up against something with Final Fantasy in the name even if that thing was a sub-par spinoff.) Kirby games? 0-1, also in an SFF situation but honestly the competition was strong enough that it wouldnt have been able to beat the second-place game in the fourway even if you replaced Super Mario 64 with, say, Final Fantasy VII. So by that logic, Phoenix should have this in the bag!

And you know what? The 2013 X-Stats support this! Kirby got just over 47% on Sephiroth in Round 3, and Sephiroth turned around and got just under 42% on Mewtwo the following round; this translates to Kirby getting 39.47% on Mewtwo. Two rounds earlier, in the match with DoC Vincent, Phoenix got 40.31% on Mewtwo. More proof that Phoenix has the advantage! Then again, Phoenix does his best work with a disadvantage, so is that really a good thing?

But in all seriousness, Kirby is insanely impressive. Only once has a character broken 60% directly on Kirby, and it was in a fourway match where Kirby still advanced in second place. And went on to get revenge on the offending character outright in the following round. Phoenix, well, gave Gordon Freeman his first ever win. So yeah, Ill take Kirbybut its going to be a lot closer than anyone in the Oracle thinks! (Including my own pick; I noticed that I was already one of the lowest pickers for Kirby, so it doesnt necessarily pay for me to go as low as I actually believe since I can still nail a number one pick with an overestimation if Im right, and dont lose as much ground if Im wrong.)

Kirby with 54.67% of the vote

Crew Consensus: Kirby avoids the hand of Phoenix.
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boy and I thought I was being generous to Phoenix
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I have too much integrity to use the Guest spot for an outright "crazy upset", but the more I looked at numbers the more it felt like Phoenix is actually legit now for some reason.

Also, Kirby has plenty of befuddling results of his own, where characters that should be total fodder somehow manage to not totally suck against him. Kain from Legacy of Kain broke 35% on him. Prince of Persia got 38.3%.

...And yet, GLaDOS could only manage 31.2% in 2010, and Cecil got tripled the year before the PoP match happened, important because it means you can't chalk the former result up to Kirby simply being stronger in 2010. It should be noted that the match with Cecil is the only time outside of Round 1 of the fourway contests that Kirby has tripled anyone. And you all know how fodderiffic the 2007 and 2008 contests could be in the first round; Kirby nearly quadrupled the third place finisher in his 2008 R1 match, and that was a match where he was never really even threatening to take first place! Man, Cecil really is an embarrassment.
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such a flirtatious match. they're both so close
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my kirby as #10 march continues on for another round
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Leon give me xstats on Alucards division cause im guessing theyre wild
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2b > charizard what a time to be alive
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

I have too much integrity to use the Guest spot for an outright "crazy upset", but the more I looked at numbers the more it felt like Phoenix is actually legit now for some reason.

PW is legit now.

Kirby is between "elite" and "noble nine breaker"

They don't compare.

not bad 2B, not bad
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Smh Leon doubting The Plan
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So Red kinda sucks here? Alucard is looking decent to win the division?
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The Mana Sword posted...

So Red kinda sucks here? Alucard is looking decent to win the division?

If Red = Alucard I think that implies a lot of good things about Crash, Cecil, Ridley etc. relative to the other side of the division.
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should I deliver my solid snake take here now or wait until there's another metal gear character in the contest (aka next month)

also -- kirby, wow
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Gotta wonder if that Smash Bros trailer where Kirby was the savior of all Nintendo is having an effect here
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Everything has pointed to Kirby/Guile being a lot better performance than we thought at the time.
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What happens to the Kirby story if Phoenix just isnt that hot? Is everyone pretty confident in Kirby > Bowser? How big are we thinking?

heroicmario posted...

What happens to the Kirby story if Phoenix just isnt that hot? Is everyone pretty confident in Kirby > Bowser? How big are we thinking?

Kirby's had three big wins in a row. Considering how good he's looked and his awesome role in the final Smash trailer, I'm somewhat confident in him taking his division. I think he goes for the same % Pika just had.
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Time for those Bowsette pics.
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Here is an interesting question:

How do Lucina, Ike, and Shulk all stand up to one another?
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what did Kirby even do in that trailer? that seems like after the fact rationalization to me.

now if he's got some main character role post release, let's talk
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He didn't die

transience posted...

what did Kirby even do in that trailer? that seems like after the fact rationalization to me.

now if he's got some main character role post release, let's talk

I was quite thankful to take Kirby > Bowser after watching the trailer; I actually said that on the podcast last week.

As for what he did, not sure if you've seen it, but he was the only character to escape the death beams that... froze everyone into another dimension or something. Watching Link, Snake, Mario, and Bowser all get zapped while freaking Kirby escapes to save them all was hilarious and epic. It seems very likely that the story mode begins with Kirby as the onlycharacter. That's a big deal.
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Hmm. 54% on Bowser? I could see that. The wins been big, for sure, but Guile and Isaac? I dunno, those arent anyone Id be expecting to be worth that much, you know? And then we have Phoenix being called legit, but he just beat up Chris and skimmed by Ike? Hes being put real close to that level hereIke, that is. Im just wondering how much of this is Kirby being an absolute minster, and how much is it that his competition has been, well, you knowreal soft. 54% on Bowser feels like it could happen, though.

transience posted...

what did Kirby even do in that trailer? that seems like after the fact rationalization to me.

now if he's got some main character role post release, let's talk

Yeah, I agree with this. He did nothing, really, haha. He just was the only one who didnt get zapped!

I think you're downplaying it. For a community like GameFAQs, that was probably the biggest gaming trailer since Cloud's reveal three years ago.
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Guile and Isaac aren't worldbeaters but he still stomped them (and also specifically well exceeded his projected 2013 result on Isaac). Blowing out fodder still matters. People tried to rationalize Vivi blowing out Yu and Aya as it not being important due to them being fodder and then he went and clowned Super DK.

Kirby being the only one in the trailer can definitely matter. It got a lot of buzz.
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dammit yoblazer

I think that's a pretty great trailer to get you excited about smash bros but it's not turning kirby into a noble niner. (because he was already there)
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Oh, no, the trailer was super cool! Same with the mural commercial that just came out. Im just dont see Kirby not getting zapped as a big oh my god moment, you know? He just sort of ran and poofed away, haha. Its more like, of course Sakurai would let ol Kirby be the first character into the single player.

What I do this time, I haven't even posted about Link!
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speaking of link it's going to be hilarious seeing all the 'strong' characters from the main bracket get stomped one after the other
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hell yeah it is
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'there aren't blowouts this year'

*link outdoes his 2004 numbers on ganon*
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Yeah, see, 5 years for a character like Isaac could be him as much as Kirby. I get what youre saying, though. It is still real impressive that Kirby has consistently put up these 70% numbers against three different people. Just feels like 2B might be too unknown to throw Bowser to the wolves, but then, when you size up these two matches, its hard to imagine a scenario where Bowser would be competitive.

Im down for 2B to be near Kirby level if Bowser wins next round !!
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Oooof, now that you mention itthat is what that would mean, isnt it? Yiiiiiikes, Bowser, yikes.

Here is another important question.

If Terra = Kefka, what does Alucard get on Bowser?
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If Terra = Kefka, what is PEACH expected on Bowser?
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Were falling down a rabbit hole of bad things send help

heroicmario posted...

And then we have Phoenix being called legit, but he just beat up Chris and skimmed by Ike? Hes being put real close to that level hereIke, that is. Im just wondering how much of this is Kirby being an absolute minster, and how much is it that his competition has been, well, you knowreal soft.

Ike vs. Ness who ya got

because Ness would have to stomp Ike at this point for Bowser to look good to win
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NEW THREAD WHERE
5caps
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Moltar waits until it hits 500.
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Alucard > Bowser
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PEACH > Bowser believe
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