Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

(+) Yeah! (+)

I think Leon created a board meme that hilariously backfired
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How so? Mewtwo is definitely a fraud
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_Dog_ posted...

So is Mewtwo the Turd of the Round? Knowing how Square characters haven't done all too great this contest, for Tifa to win by this much really speaks something. What makes her an exception to the trend?

FF being a little weaker than before is one thing. Being called turd of the round for doing 45% on a near-elite character who is also the Guru favorite is another. Tifa was never expected to be so weak.

I'd say Mewtwo is a fraud but not a turd. This match is going as most people expected.

_Dog_ posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

_Dog_ posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Two big reasons

And they are?

Tits. The answer is tits. I'm not joking.

So is TJF stronger than ever?

Not exactly. TJF is when characters overperform by getting picks with boobs. It's a type of pic factor.

Tifa has always been a monster. She is not just boobs, she is FF7 and stuff.

transcience posted...

lasa, are you just nitpicking every match we got wrong weeks later? why?

...what? i hardly even post in these topics.

i was replying to dog's point that square isn't well doing in the contest, aside from tifa. i said "square is doing fine, it may just seem like the characters are not doing well because the crew sometimes makes some of the characters appear stronger than they actually are in their writeups." seems like a perfectly legitimate and relevant point to me.
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KamikazePotato posted...

How so? Mewtwo is definitely a fraud

frauds need to fail so he got antivoted! instead Tifa somehow won the board vote vs a Pokmon

(im not serious)
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What is the minimal Tifa % for Mewtwo to be a fraud?

ZeldaTPLink posted...

What is the minimal Tifa % for Mewtwo to be a fraud?

50.01%
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What is with all these people calling everything a fraud? You do know that many years passed since Charizard and Mewtwo overperformed for some strange reason right?
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Safer_777 posted...

What is with all these people calling everything a fraud? You do know that many years passed since Charizard and Mewtwo overperformed for some strange reason right?

LeonhartFour posted...

the only reason Mewtwo is a fraud is a thing is because I did a poll before the contest seeing who people thought was the strongest non-Noble Nine Nintendo character and Mewtwo won it, which stunned me

thus the campaign was born

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Didn't see that. Okay thanks. But seriously? Not Kirby or MMX? Damn!
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I had Mewtwo getting to Link in my first bracket draft.

The hype was real.

I have him losing to Tifa now.

The board took some convincing to settle down on Mewtwo! Leon went all-in on the Fraud thing and I pushed Tifa>Mewtwo pretty hard in mine as well (and I'm pretty those two topics influence like 1/3 of B8 brackets. Suckers. I'm doing bad this contest)
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Well

Fuck
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I listened to Leon's thread more than yours, but that's mostly because his got posted much earlier. By the time I got to reading yours I had much stronger opinions on things.

That 4 hour ep. of The Show also influenced a lot.

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Well

Fuck

In your defense that was a really entertaining read!

I didn't even know about that poll. the benefits of pulling a Moltar!
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With so much talk about TJF why is Lulu not in the contest??? She should be near elite tier.
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Well

Fuck

In your defense that was a really entertaining read!

Thanks! I enjoyed writing it.
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chief making moves
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Master Chief pulling 59% updates while down 56-44. He's so great, man.
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transcience posted...

Im not 1000% sure that Chief is done here. just a feeling with how weird he is.

LET'S GO CHIEF

WATCH OUT FOR WASHED ICONS
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Master Chief defies the trends by still having trends.
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Lets go chief!

Would suck that drake is weaker than chief, but either of them beating tails is worth it.
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Safer_777 posted...

But seriously? Not Kirby or MMX?

Well, MMX isn't technically a Nintendo character, so I didn't include him, but yeah.

KamikazePotato posted...

Suckers. I'm doing bad this contest

^5

although to be fair I did tell people not to copy my bracket because I never win
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Yeah obviously my bracket is cooked but Chief making a comeback would make this contest worth having alone

Arguably Master Chief stalling/cutting while down 56-44 in a contest that doesn't have trends has almost already made it worth it to some extent but LET'S GO CHIEF
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

_Dog_ posted...

Knowing how Square characters haven't done all too great this contest, for Tifa to win by this much really speaks something. What makes her an exception to the trend?

eh, gotta agree with leonhart that people exaggerate how much square sucks this contest. the square characters who lose are guys like noctis, not powerhouses.

just seems like the crew sometimes overrates square's strength so they get some of these matches wrong (i think most of them took noctis over master hand, right?).

"Old Square", which was originally everything prior to FF7 but I feel like now it's e.g. everything up to and including FFIX, has been doing just fine. It's just the characters from FFX and beyond that have struggled (with the exception of Auron, who still seems fine.)
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Really you could argue just Noctis, Lightning, and Yuna did poorly after seeing Donkey Kong handle Leon like he did. And really that might just be Noctis-- the state of Dante and Alucard this year isn't entirely clear.
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I am here for the Retro Renaissance GameFAQs is currently experiencing.

Yeah, I got really tired of all those "new" characters winning. I think guys like Link deserve a shot.
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

"Old Square", which was originally everything prior to FF7 but I feel like now it's e.g. everything up to and including FFIX, has been doing just fine. It's just the characters from FFX and beyond that have struggled (with the exception of Auron, who still seems fine.)

yeah, it's fair to say new square isn't doing well (with the exception of auron - though i'd say a character created in 2001 is only borderline "new square") but that isn't emblematic of square. newer characters in general aren't doing that hot. "nostalgiaFAQs" is a thing for a reason.
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We all know we don't play new games here so of course the old characters/games do well.
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Personally I would group FFX with the PS FFs since we use to combine them before.

Old Square - 1-6
Middle Square - 7-12
New Square - 13-15+
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FFXII is more akin to 13 and 15.

Old Square is 1-6
Modern Square is 7-10 (and Tactics)
Postmodern Square is everything since then
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.
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Tails heard Master Chief call him a weak little fox and mistook it for weak little f***s.
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heroicmario posted...

I am here for the Retro Renaissance GameFAQs is currently experiencing.

Won't believe it till I see a Space Invader or Garland for "old Square" in the contest and doing fine.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7322

Geralt struggles a bit with Simon.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7323

Bayonetta barely fended off Pac-Man.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7324

Auron does okay against Vincent.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7325

Subby puts up a strong result against Claire.

Crew Predictions: 78/88

Next Round Thoughts: Geralt/Bayonetta seems like a toss-up, and you can make a case for either side right now. Auron/Sub-Zero would look interesting, but it's likely to go the same way it has in the past.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 76
transience: 75
Leonhart: 72
Kleenex: 70
Guest: 68

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Janus5k gets the point for Geralt, Kleenex gets the point for Bayonetta, Leonhart gets the point for Auron, and Kleenex get the point for Sub-Zero.

Guest: 21 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k)
Kleenex: 21
transience: 19
Moltar: 16
Leonhart: 14
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Round 2 Sephiroth vs. Captain Falcon

Moltars Analysis

Sephiroth
Round 1 - 70.28% vs. Albert Wesker

Falcon
Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Richter Belmont

Anyone up for some Seph getting embarassed? Cuz Im up for some Seph getting embarassed.

Falcon broke 30% on Cloud five years ago, and since then Nintendo stock has been way up and Square/FF7 stock has been way down. Not expecting Falcon to get the upset here, but hes probably going to make Sephy look bad.

Moltars Bracket: Sephiroth

Moltars Prediction: Sephiroth 62%

transiences Analysis

Captain Falcon is like the prototypical character to make Sephiroth look bad. Nintendo never lays down unless it's the one blowing you out. Seph is a tier and a half above the other guys in the baby bracket, or he should be anyway, so he might still drop 70 on a low-to-middle-tier Nintendo guy like Falcon. I'll be curious to compare this match to, say, Pikachu/Scorpion or Auron/Lucina. No matter what happens here, it really won't matter because nothing is going to give Sephiroth much trouble in this division.

transience's prediction: Sephiroth with 68.01%

Leonharts Analysis

The board vote for this one ought to be fun. When Captain Falcon faced Cloud in 2010, he had over 40% at the freeze and finished the match under 30%, so that should give you an idea of how extreme the trends were for FFVII and Smash back in the day. Trends are super diluted this year, but Nintendo is still extremely frontloaded and we have seen a few FF characters rise to heaven after the board vote. I wouldnt be surprised if this were similar to what we saw at the end of the Villains Contest where Bowser and Ganondorf went 50/50 with Sephiroth at the start of the match and then he climbed up to around 60% by the end.

Leonharts Vote: Sephiroth

Leonharts Prediction: Sephiroth with 59.99%
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Kleenexs Analysis

I know it doesnt need to be said again, but FF7 has had it rough this contest. The early vote has been abysmal, and though they tend to recover over the course of the day, those first few hours are a frightening time. Even moreso when theyre up against a Nintendo character. By conventional wisdom, Sephiroth should be miles ahead of Captain Falcon. However, Im not going to be surprised if Falcon is leading this match early on. Hes a Nintendo character, hes meme-y and everyone hates Sephiroth. I think with and early lead and the idea of lol Sephiroth is losing permeating, theres a chance this upset actually happens. Im not picking it, but I think the pieces are there.

Kleenexs Prediction: Sephiroth with 56%

Guests Analysis - Janus5k

Okay, let's do some numbers.

In 2010, Captain Falcon got 41.09% on Cloud. Meanwhile, Sephiroth got 41.79% against Snake, while Cloud got 47.41% against him. This projects Sephiroth to get 44.07% on Cloud, which in turn projects Falcon to get 46.62% on Sephiroth.

HOWEVER, this is the year of SmashFEAR. Falcon embodies the Smash boost, with his iconic techniques and stunning pecs, so even if he's not the focus of Ultimate hype you can bet the good Captain will benefit. Further, FFVII hasn't looked too great. Currently Aeris is barely putting 60% on a Toad, while Vincent barely broke 52% on a running joke and is looking to get the Death Penalty except from Auron this time.

As such, I am making the bold claim that Falcon gains the upper hand and scores 51% on Sephiroth, while ExTha plunges into endless despair.

...Incidentally, those numbers were all based on the first five minutes of each match. But who's winning at the freeze is much less predictable than the rest of this.

Guest prediction: Sephiroth with 61.50%

Crew Consensus: One Winged Angel > Two Winged Falcon
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Man and here I was thinking that pick was stupidly low. That Sephiroth disrespect.
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yeah, think how I feel. i had no idea people were in the 50s when Tifas pulling near 60 on Mewtwo.
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Round 2 Amaterasu vs. Lara Croft

Moltars Analysis

Amatersau
Round 1 - 88.15% vs. Draven

Lara
Round 1 - 67.89% vs. Metal Man

man that ammy number from last round brings a smile to my face

Lara did fine too, but she needed to go bigger in R1 as she was always the underdog (lol) in this match. She can be seen as both iconic and still relevant on GameFAQs, so I dont think shes going to roll over (lol) here. Like the other icons, shell put up a respectable performance and then bow out of the contest...woof.

Moltars Bracket: Amaterasu

Moltars Prediction: Amaterasu 57%

transiences Analysis

Look, I've been an early convert of these non-Nintendo mascot characters doing unusually well. Pac-Man, Crash, Simon and Master Chief didn't win, but put 47-48% on heavily favored characters. Mid-tier icons like Alucard and DK killed it against respectable competition.

Lara is perfect for that kind of environment and is ready to go. This is like a round 1 match because the Draven and Metal Man matches mean absolutely nothing. Lara at least went against a character who could potentially have some fans on gamefaqs, and she did a number on him. Metal Man isn't fundamentally different from Metal Sonic but Lara still put a doubling on him. Not many dudes get doubled these days! Lara is legit. She's way more notable than Amaterasu. She's gotten better with all her new games - which we don't care about, but it's better than Okami's gotten lately.

So yeah, I believe in Lara. Just one thing.. I have a contest rule. Don't fucking bet against Amaterasu in any kind of debatable match. She will prove you wrong every god damn time.

transience's prediction: Amaterasu with 56.66%
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Leonharts Analysis

Its hard to make much of anything out of either characters round 1 match. Amaterasu landed the blowout of the contest against Draven, but that was basically catharsis for the entire voting populace who was here in 2013. Metal Man is certainly weak, but its hard to gauge exactly how weak since hes sort of a unique entity as someone who is simply a boss fight from an NES game.

Amaterasu has traditionally been the stronger of the two over the years, and while Lara has rebounded in recent years with the Tomb Raider reboot, shes never been able to beat someone this good before. Its hard to totally trust her in this spot, although I think she can put up a good fight.

Leonharts Vote: Amaterasu

Leonharts Prediction: Amaterasu with 54.84%

Kleenexs Analysis

Iconic Character Boost aint got nothing on Ammy. She put up the best percentage of anyone in round 1, completely dominating out previous Character Battle Champion. I cant imagine Lara has any real shot here.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ammy with 65%

Guests Analysis - Luster Soldier

Here's a match that could have potential upset potential, albeit a rather small chance. The upset potential is dependent how much strength Lara Croft has been able to maintain over the past several years. Western characters of the realistic human variety have mostly declined in strength, but Lara Croft should hold up better than most of those characters as she established herself as a 1990s video game icon and is still appearing in new games often enough to remain relevant in the eyes of the voters.

It's hard to know for sure where Lara Croft stands today because she faced Metal Man in round 1, a character of unknown strength. Amaterasu is probably still the same character that we've seen since 2010 and has no reason to decline. In addition, Amaterasu's character design means that she will age very well on this site and maintain her strength incredibly well.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Amaterasu

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Amaterasu - 55.22%

Crew Consensus: Ammy erases Lara from the bracket.
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Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx4

Sephiroth vs Captain Falcon
Who knows. Seph walks but how easily? Wesker probably isn't a total pushover. I'll just predict whatever makes Richter X-Stat to higher than Wesker. ... what is that number? I don't x-stat so help me out guys. Fine let's just go with...

Sephiroth with 66.52%

Amaterasu vs Lara Croft
Feel like Lara is going to win this one. Doge looked good against Draven but pretty much everyone would. I really liked Lara's big number against Metal Man more last round, and her looking stronger than usual would be consistent with the other PSX icon boosts we've been seeing.

Lara Croft with 53.24%

Ryu vs Commander Shepard
Once upon a time this would be a vaguely debatable match. Not really so much anymore! Having seen more of round 2 I think it's more likely that Shepard really is just that weak and King K Rool isn't worth much, more than "OMG EVERYONE FROM SMASH IS A BIG DEAL NOW"

Ryu with 63.33%

Aqua vs KOS-MOS
Aqua's beatdown last round was a mirage caused by her opponent having poorly edited hair. That's my theory and I'm sticking to it. KOS should beat Aqua even more easily than she did Ellie.

KOS-MOS with 58.98%
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Round 2 Ryu vs. Commander Shepard

Moltars Analysis

Ryu
Round 1 - 68.44% vs. Lloyd Irving

Shepard
Round 1 - 51.23% vs. King K. Rool

I would have such a hard time processing a world where Shepard struggled to beat King K. Rool and then came even close to beating Ryu. This seems to be another one of those not close but not blowout mid-to-high-50s kind of matches so...

Moltars Bracket: Ryu

Moltars Prediction: Ryu 56%

transiences Analysis

Garrus did alright against Squall. There's still a huge debate over how Square is doing, but I'll take not getting blown up by a former top 12 character as being something to write home about. Maybe Shepard getting like 51% against King K Rool isn't as bad as I think it is.

Oh wait. Yes it is. That really happened. Ryu's gonna hadoken this guy to dust.

transience's prediction: Ryu with 59.78%

Leonharts Analysis

Im LeonhartFour, and this is my favorite matchup of round 2! really curious to see how this one plays out. King K. Rool made Commander Shepard look really bad in round 1, but we might be able to chalk that up to Smash quirkiness if he can hold his own here against Ryu, who looked fine but not overwhelming (as always; he is Mr. Consistency, after all) against Lloyd. Shepard might have been a sexy upset pick here in 2013, but after what weve seen from Mass Effect so far, I feel like 45%+ would be a major achievement.

Leonharts Vote: Commander Shepard

Leonharts Prediction: Ryu with 56.99%

Kleenexs Analysis

Garrus looked weak. Shepard looked weak. You might have been able to make a case for this being a close-ish match 5 years ago, but not today. Ryu should have no issues.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ryu with 63%

Guests Analysis - garetha200

Now here's a match I don't know what to think about. I never really believed in the hype that Ryu could give Sephiroth any kind of a run in the divisional finals: even if he's in Smash, he isn't a Nintendo icon and he's still just a fighting game character. Nevertheless, he's against a Shepard who had difficulty with King K. Rool of all characters last round, so you don't need to be a big-time icon to take down this match.

However, I don't see some huge percentage blowout happening, as Shepard doesn't seem like the kind of character who'd roll over and die even if he isn't strong anymore. Mass Effects 1 and 2 are very fondly remembered games, and the main character should still have enough strength to avoid a crushing at the hands of Ryu. Furthermore, Garrus rebounded slightly and didn't completely die against Squall, and I would never take Ryu over Squall so I'd be surprised if Shepard came out of this looking too bad.

Ryu with 60%

Crew Consensus: Shep gets blown up by Ryu.
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transcience posted...

yeah, think how I feel. i had no idea people were in the 50s when Tifas pulling near 60 on Mewtwo.

Tifa > Sephiroth book it

or Falcon > Mewtwo...?
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Falcon > Mewtwo sounds vaguely plausible actually
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it would just further confirm his fraudulence so I'll allow it
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Round 2 KOS-MOS vs. Aqua

Moltars Analysis

KOS-MOS
Round 1 - 54.45% vs. Ellie

Aqua
Round 1 - 64.11% vs. Quiet

Aqua the last standing KH representative. What a time to be alive.

I think KOS-MOS should still be the favorite here, despite not looking too great in R1. Ellie is probably okay, and Id trust her more than Quiet or anything else from MGS at this point.

I get Fox/D.Va-lite vibes from this, and while KOS-MOS isnt as strong as Fox, shell have less trouble here than she did in Round 1.

Moltars Bracket: KOS-MOS

Moltars Prediction: KOS-MOS 61%

transiences Analysis

KOS struggled with Ellie which, yeah, isn't a great look. But Aqua? She's gotta be sub-Riku unless we're just all in on trailers now. And Riku got killed by Bayonetta who barely held off Pac-Man. I believe in Pac-Man, and Bayonetta by extension, but still. Sora losing to a human Pokemon character doesn't say much for that franchise.

KOS-MOS feels like she could get the Vyse treatment, where she's right there at the fodder line and then suddenly falls off the earth. I won't be totally surprised if the more relevant character today takes this just out of pure apathy. But I'm not picking a PSP Kingdom Hearts character over KOS-MOS. She'll have to prove it.

transience's prediction: KOS-MOS with 59.44%
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