Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6

(+) Yeah! (+)

Welcome to the Contest Analysis Club!

Im the president of the Club, Master Moltar! Pretty cool name, right? The club also has several other members you should meet, theyre all really fun!

First up, we have transience! Hes very reliable and social, but sometimes can be a little out of touch. Its okay though, no ones perfect.well except for me, ahaha~.

Next, theres Leonhart! Hes super smart, and the most technical member of the club. Some think he needs to make better predictions, but I like him just the way he is!

Then, theres Kleenex! Hes full of energy and super spunky! His writing style does take a while to get used to, but some people find that charming!

And those are the current members, but I didnt forget you! Whats your name?



Huh? Guest? Thats a silly name...but I like it, ahaha! Congratulations, youre the newest member of the Contest Analysis Club!



What do we do? Well, in addition to fun activities and social gatherings, were all really big fans of analyzing contests! You showed up at the perfect time too, because a Character Battle is happening now! Our club looks at each match in the Contest and does a write-up about it. In the write-up, we talk about our thoughts for each match, and give a prediction of what we think is going to happen. Then we share our write-ups with each other and the world! Its pretty fun!



Its not hard at all! Just put your pen to the paper...or keys to the keyboard as the kids say these days, ahaha. Everyone in the club has a different writing style, so its up to you to find the style that suits you best. The most important thing is to enjoy yourself here and have a good time!

Okay, everyone! It's almost time for the real show to begin! Ehehe~

Current Guest List: Send write-ups to [email protected]

Squall Leonhart vs. Zelda - ZenOfThunder
Fox McCloud vs. Aerith Gainsborough - MetalmindStats

Geralt vs. Bayonetta - paulg235
Auron vs. Sub-Zero - MetalmindStats

Luigi vs. Miles 'Tails' Prower - Xeybozn
Tifa Lockheart vs. Mega Man X - TsunamiXXVIII

Sephiroth vs. Amaterasu - SuperNiceDog
Ryu vs. KOS-MOS - Lopen
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ya go my Kirby
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Kirby the god

lemme see those squall/zelda writeups
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7334

Lot to unpack here. If you ignore Ganondorf's R2 showing, this result seems perfectly normal. So what happened in that Chun-Li match? Is it an anomaly? Maybe. I think in this environment of icons and respect, she's much closer to Ryu in strength than she used to be. We couldn't really tell in 2013 since it got masked by the Tifa beatdown (confirmed under-performance?), but this match gave her a chance to shine. This also makes Spyro look pretty good, but again, with Crash and Pac-Man and others like him looking decent, it's understandable that Spyro is somewhere in that mix.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7335

DK finally improved a little against Vivi and beat his old result by a little over 1%. Vivi has gotten stronger since those matches, so the fact that DK did even better means he's also stronger. Tidus and Leon also dropped in strength, which only made DK look better than he should have going into the match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7336

Zero doesn't do too well against Wario. Wario did stand to benefit from being a Smash character and pretty recognizable, so it makes sense for him to look better this year. Him beating Master Hand so...handily is also interesting and probably a result of some slight SFF.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7337

"Pokemon has been underperforming and when Pikachu faces real competition he'll get exposed."

*Pikachu wins*

https://imgur.com/joqGRIC

Crew Predictions: 90/100

Next Round Thoughts: Ganon did well enough against Dante to earn his favorite status back against Vivi, and it's likely that both Pikachu and Yoshi are stronger than Zero, so whoever won that would be favored to escape the division.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 88
transience: 86
Leonhart: 84
Kleenex: 82
Guest: 77

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Ganon, Leonhart gets the point for Vivi, BT gets the point for Zero, and Kleenex get the point for Yoshi.

Kleenex: 25
Guest: 22 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT)
transience: 22
Moltar: 17
Leonhart: 17
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I really gotta wonder how Vivi keeps his strength while someone like Tidus, Sora or Zidane have dropped quite a bit.
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2B really keeping it above 40%? incredible

is she the strongest post 2010 character
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Who even is number two?

Geralt, I guess, but he seem pretty distant at this point.

MetalmindStats posted...

Who even is number two?

Geralt, I guess, but he seem pretty distant at this point.

Not necessarily. Compare his numbers on Rosalina to 2B's numbers on Ness and they seem like they could possibly in the same league, depending on where Rosalina is.

Wouldn't write Geralt off as kinda decent just yet in any case
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I really wish it were the actual FF1 Black Mage who had Vivi's strength.
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If Terra = Kefka and using the current results.... wow. Bowser and Alucard would be exactly tied! Of course, I would take Kefka over Terra. I would have never guessed before today that Alucard could be stronger than Bowser. Would you guys buy Alucard > Bowser, though?
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I wouldn't be confident in an Alucard win, but I could definitely see a closer match than people anticipate.

Why the hell I have Bowser beating Cloud is a mystery beyond me
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MetalmindStats posted...

Who even is number two?

Geralt, I guess, but he seem pretty distant at this point.

Witcher 1 is from 2007.
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Whoops, I should really remember these things! I don't think 2B has any remote competition for strongest character from the 2010s, then.

Bayonetta's from 2010, right? She might be next.

But yeah this is a really good performance from 2B. Kinda surprised how good it makes Ness look, honestly.
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Round 3 Squall Leonhart vs. Zelda

Moltars Analysis

Squall
Round 1 - 75.88% vs. Hat Kid
Round 2 - 64.02% vs. Garrus Vakarian

Zelda
Round 1 - 75.33% vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze
Round 2 - 70.70% vs. The Boss

Unlike Ganondorf, Zelda doesnt have a shaky Round 2 performance that brings her Round 3 match into question. Zelda has clearly looked stronger than Squall all contest. Ryu doing better on Shepard than Squall on Garrus also does him no favors.

Ganondorf redeemed himself with an elite-level performance on Dante, and I think were going to see another one from Zelda here. Shes just looked too good this contest to make me think otherwise.

Moltars Bracket: Zelda

Moltars Prediction: Zelda 56%

transiences Analysis

Just about every contest match this year has pointed to Zelda beating Squall. Squall struggling to triple a dude named Hat Kid; Shepard almost losing to a trailer and getting doubled by Ryu, but Garrus putting up a better number on Squall; Kingdom Hearts sucking and FF10 not doing much better; Vincent and Aerith struggling with midcard-at-best characters; Zelda putting 71% on The Boss; Ganondorf pounding Dante, and so on. Oh, and Breath of the Wild's the hottest game here in the last 7 years. Squall just looks outclassed.

Squall's best hope is that Street Fighter is stronger than ever, Kirby is a god (per Guile) and Zelda's a bit of a fake elite, just a victim of people loving her series and getting series votes until she runs up against someone that people actually care about. She gets into a match with an elite (if you want to still call Squall that) and folds. That's... well, I've never seen Nintendo fans, Zelda fans, not protect their own. Good luck, Leon.

transience's prediction: Zelda with 56.76%
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Leonharts Analysis

Everything weve seen from this contest so far, whether its Squall and Zeldas individual performances or the general trends, point to Zelda winning this one relatively effortlessly. Now I could make all sorts of rationalizations about why Squalls performances arent so bad (anti-voting mattering more against fodder, or Shepard being worse than Garrus now because hes more of the face of an anti-voted franchise) or why Zeldas arent as good as they seem (Bowser did the same to Gordon that she did to Ezio and didnt dominate Charizard, or that MGS has fallen even harder than Mass Effect), but why bother? Everyone knows Im sticking with my fanboy guns here, so as a wise man once said, Whatever.

Leonharts Vote: Squall Leonhart

Leonharts Prediction: Squall Leonhart with 51.44%

Kleenexs Analysis

Here we are, the day of reckoning. This is probably the most talked about R3 match we have, so Im going to spend a bunch of time not really talking about it. Fact of the matter is, Squall disappointed a bit in both of his first two rounds, while Zelda kind of killed it. Her performance on The Boss might be a little less impressive now that we know MGS is a FRAUD, but I dont think you can look at the results of the past two rounds and not call Zelda the favorite.

Thats not to say Squall is dead in the water. Its definitely possible that Zeldas performances in R1 & R2 were overblown because her opponents were just that bad, but Squalls performance on Garrus really gives me pause, especially considering how badly Shepard got smashed by Ryu the other day. Unless you think Garrus > Shepard, or Ryu > Squall, its not a great showing! So Im casting my lot with Zelda here. RIP Squall.

Kleenexs Prediction: Zelda with 52%

Guests Analysis - ZenOfThunder

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lmM2PTrV0Q" data-time="

ZenOfThunder's Prediction: Zelda with 53.86%

Crew Consensus: Zelda winning on my GameFAQs? Its more likely than you think!
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Will Red and Pikachu be boosted by the Detective Pikachu trailer?
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Janus5k posted...

Bayonetta's from 2010, right? She might be next.

No, Bayonetta came out in late 2009 in Japan.

Janus5k posted...

Bayonetta's from 2010, right? She might be next.

Bayonetta is from 2010 if you go by the US release date. The Japanese release date was in 2009.
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Janus5k posted...

Bayonetta's from 2010, right? She might be next.

But yeah this is a really good performance from 2B. Kinda surprised how good it makes Ness look, honestly.

Ness is a good bit better than anyone in the Stats Topic likes to admit (probably because no one there likes Earthbound).

Bowser (2013c) has a strength of 35.94 against Base Link.
Ness (2013c) has a strength of 27.69 against Base Link.
Bowser61.48%33,173
Ness38.52%20,787
Bowser wins with 61.48% of the vote!

Current Bowser projection on Ness through 2B: 60.79%.
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Master Moltar posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7334

Lot to unpack here. If you ignore Ganondorf's R2 showing, this result seems perfectly normal. So what happened in that Chun-Li match? Is it an anomaly? Maybe. I think in this environment of icons and respect, she's much closer to Ryu in strength than she used to be. We couldn't really tell in 2013 since it got masked by the Tifa beatdown (confirmed under-performance?), but this match gave her a chance to shine. This also makes Spyro look pretty good, but again, with Crash and Pac-Man and others like him looking decent, it's understandable that Spyro is somewhere in that mix.

Going back through past polls, I found these favorite Street Fighter II character polls:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6239-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4828-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3967-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3395-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/840-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/73-

Here's Ryu's percentage on Chun-Li over the history of those polls:

2/12/2016 - 58.15%
8/31/2012 - 63.01%
7/10/2010 - 68.95%
2/15/2009 - 72.56%
3/24/2002 - 73.95%
2/11/2000 - 70.86%

Chun-Li has actually improved her percentage on Ryu over the history of those polls, so maybe we should have seen a Chun-Li boost coming.
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oh my god zen
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Round 3 Fox McCloud vs. Aerith Gainsborough

Moltars Analysis

Fox
Round 1 - 54.10% vs. Jill Valentine
Round 2 - 71.52% vs. D.Va

Aerith
Round 1 - 57.43% vs. Waluigi
Round 2 - 59.99% vs. Captain Toad

Bad day for Square?

Aerith has beat two Nintendo characters so far, but didnt look impressive beating either. Fox should easily be stronger than both Waluigi and Toad (Capt).

The problem is that its hard to get a good read on Fox so far. The number against Jill seemed fine early on, but DK managed to dispose of Leon pretty easily too, and Jill is weaker than Leon (at least I think she still is). The D.Va number also looks good, but shes a total unknown who beat another unknown in R1.

These two seemed to be pretty close in strength historically, and in close matches between Nintendo and Square, this is the year to side with Nintendo.

Moltars Bracket: Aerith

Moltars Prediction: Fox 52%

transiences Analysis

It's no secret that I think Aerith sucks as a contest character. 57% on Waluigi, 60% on Captain Toad (not even real Toad). Shovel Knight is worth like 38% on her.

Fox, though. How is Fox not better in this environment? That Jill match is pretty bad for someone so obsolete. Fox should have been winning this match for the last 13 years and yet he's still only worth 54%. The Dva match is.. okay? I guess I'd expect Aerith to go under that number but that's more antivotes than anything.

I guess this comes down to, can Fox make up the 10% gap that Captain Toad couldn't? Let's throw Wauigi out because who the hell knows with that dude. Can Fox get more than 62% on Shovel Knight?

I'm... I'm skeptical, actually. Fox has no really impressive contest wins, unless you count weird fourways and even those are not that great. Aerith should probably be the pick here... but I'm stubborn.

transience's prediction: Fox with 51.06%

Leonharts Analysis

This one is a bit tricky to me. Aerith has traditionally always been stronger than Fox in these things, but her two wins over Waluigi and Captain Toad werent all that impressive and you know hes better than them. Fox looked good against D. Va, but he let Jill Valentine stay pretty close to him in a year where Resident Evil appears to be on the downswing. Part of me says theres no way Aerith would lose to Jill, so that doesnt give Fox much margin for error, but who knows this year? Weve seen some weird results in the current environment. Final Fantasy VII has been a mixed bag this year, too, with Sephiroth and Tifa looking good while Vincent and Aerith have been mediocre. I honestly have no idea who to pick here. As a stats nerd, I just kinda hope that whoever wins between Squall/Zelda, the opposite wins here to avoid an SFF beatdown in the division finals!

Leonharts Vote: Aerith Gainsborough

Leonharts Prediction: Fox McCloud with 51.86%
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Kleenexs Analysis

So this is basically just the first match but on a weaker scale. I think Aeris actually has a better chance at winning this than Squall has at beating Zelda, but Im still inclined to side with Nintendo when unsure, because its Nintendo. If Fox wins this, hes going to get annihilated by Zelda next round and this whole half of the division is going to look like trash.

Kleenexs Prediction: Fox with 52%

Guests Analysis - MetalmindStats

Before CBX started, Fox vs. Aerith looked like a classic close Square vs. Nintendo match one of quite a few that Allen set up in this bracket (of which we had only previously seen Ganondorf versus Vivi, in questionable circumstances). Unfortunately for Aerith, though, Nintendo characters have mostly looked anywhere from strong to beastly so far, while New Square characters have been at best on par with their generally weak 2013 results. To make matters worse, Aerith failed to even reach 60% on Captain Toad last round, despite Allen unjustly robbing him of his title.

After Fox managed only 54.1% on Jill Valentine, however, Im sure many are thinking that Aerith should be stronger than her and thusly should make Fox look vulnerable. Thats especially true after Leon failed to come particularly close to DK, and seemingly proved to be barely ahead of Tidus in the process. However, I beg to differ. For me, one of the big trends of this contest so far has been sexy and badass female characters consistently overperforming. From 2B through Lara to Tifa, theyve pretty much continually impressed, and I see no reason why a nostalgia-powered Jill wouldnt be part of those ranks. Leon himself has reason to fade, as a 2000s icon whose big game has been getting more and more distant in most peoples memories, so Jill could even be the strongest Resident Evil character and I wouldnt bat an eye.

All this is to say that I fully expect Fox to embarrass Aerith, and all those bracket-makers who picked her to advance to Round 4 in the process, despite his minor hiccup against Jill.

Prediction: Fox McCloud wins with 56.65%

Crew Consensus: 1v1, no items, Fox only.
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Yeah with the way this contest has been going I wouldn't really be surprised if Jill was stronger than Leon now.
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Frauds everywhere.
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now that is a crew curse.
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Master Moltar posted...

Before CBX started, Fox vs. Aerith looked like a classic close Square vs. Nintendo match one of quite a few that Allen set up in this bracket (of which we had only previously seen Ganondorf versus Vivi, in questionable circumstances)

don't forget Master Hand vs. Noctis
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Hey Noctis is from Square-enix, not Square!
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Tidus vs. DK, then.
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I love the uninanimous Zelda/Fox picks. Really goes to show just how much the pendulum has swung towards Nintendo when these previously obvious picks have been completely reversed.
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Fox beating Aeris feels like some twilight zone stuff. It feels like something that shouldnt happen, because 2003 was a year at one point, haha. Its the total antithesis of what I have known GameFAQs to be, and yet... I kinda wanna see it?

Lopen's Unofficial Analysis x4

Zelda v Squall
Yeah not really seeing this one as competitive anymore after seeing their performances leading up to this point and others in the bracket. Not even a little. Sorry Leonhart. Hope I'm wrong here.

Zelda with 58.88%

Fox v Aeris
This one on the other hand, Fox hasn't exactly convinced me he can beat Aeris with his previous round performances. To me this is less "can Fox do 10% better than Captain Toad" (not entirely a given, I think the Captain is being a bit underrated) and more "can Aeris do a bit more than 4% better than Jill Valentine did" and I'm thinking the answer to the second question is a yes-- Jill hasn't ever performed at a level that gives me a lot of confidence in her. Not a commanding yes or anything, but enough to squeak by.

Aeris with 51.88%

Geralt vs Bayonetta
I've been saying that Bayonetta's fiercest competition to get out of this division will be Pac-Man since Pac-Man wrecked Sans. Geralt vs Simon was a squeaker of a match, so I don't really see any reason to adjust that prediction aside from maybe more Simon RESPECT after Alucard tore it up today. But I mean Richter didn't do so hot either so I'm really not feeling the idea of Simon being super legitimate. Beating Ryu Hayabusa and I guess even Rosalina is worth more than nothing, but it's still not enough for me to buy either of these guys as being above Pac's level.

Bayonetta with 55.38%

Auron vs Sub-Zero
Magus and Sub-Zero being in about the same place makes sense to me. By extension, Sub-Zero and Vincent being in about the same place makes sense to me. Auron continues to walk through this division without too much issue.

Auron with 56.57%
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Master Moltar posted...

Guests Analysis - ZenOfThunder

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lmM2PTrV0Q" data-time="

ZenOfThunder's Prediction: Zelda with 53.86%

Crew Consensus: Zelda winning on my GameFAQs? Its more likely than you think!

Alright Zen that's your best one yet.

lmao

Round 3 Geralt vs. Bayonetta

Moltars Analysis

Geralt
Round 1 - 56.03% vs. Rosalina
Round 2 - 52.19% vs. Simon Belmont

Bayonetta
Round 1 - 64.40% vs. Riku
Round 2 - 52.07% vs. Pac-Man

I dont really know what to think here other than that I think Bayonetta wins this. This is the only Round 3 match that I cant make anything definitive out of the past two rounds.

Bayo crushing Riku in a down year for KH and beating Pac-Man in a year where iconic, recognizable characters are performing strongly looks very good for her. Geralts wins over Rosalina and Simon seem less impressive in comparison, but maybe he wins here and they actually were really good? I dunno.

Moltars Bracket: Geralt

Moltars Prediction: Bayonetta 53%

transiences Analysis

I find it kinda hard to come up with reasons for Geralt to take this. His performances have been less than stellar but he's been able to get over the hump. Bayo's cleared the hump quite impressively with Riku and I think higher of 2018 Pac than I do 2018 Simon. He has to hope he's on the 2B path and is just way better than we think. 2B still blows my mind.

These two feel like they should be about equal and then there's the Nintendo stuff on top of things. I think Bayo takes this and takes it easy.

transience's prediction: Bayonetta with 57.11%

Leonharts Analysis

Man, the upper half of this division has largely been inscrutable, and it all comes to a head here. I honestly wont be too surprised by just about anything this match produces because I have no clue what any of the match results before this have meant (other than Riku is trash). I think I favor Bayonetta here because I think she would beat Simon Belmont, and Pac-Man would, too. Of course, if were going to see a Geralt rally materialize, this is probably the place since its likely to be close regardless of which one finishes on top. I dont think it will though.

Leonharts Vote: Bayonetta

Leonharts Prediction: Bayonetta with 52.04%

Kleenexs Analysis

This is tough. I dont really have a good read on either of these guys. Geralt is still pretty much untested, and Bayonetta doesnt have much more to look back on than Geralt. Bayos R2 match is tough to pin down because I have no clue where to put Pac-Man this year either. At the end of the day, I think 64% on Riku is more impressive than either of Geralts matches, so I expect the Witcher to get Witchd.

Kleenexs Prediction: Bayonetta with 55%

Guests Analysis - paulg235

I kinda felt this would've been an easy win Bayonetta pre-contest but now I am really not sure if she will win at all. We've seen nostalgic characters like Pac-Man look good throughout the contest and Pac-Man does have Smash now but so does Bayonetta and I felt a little disappointed in her match against the Pac last round. She looked good against Riku, but for all we know, he could be fodder now.

Geralt has looked crap in his first two matches but managed to pass by thanks to a seemingly weak fourpack. I'm not sure what Pac-Man would score over Simon or Hayabusa in a direct match but I would think he should be able to beat both. Part of me thinks Bayonetta easily beats Geralt but another part is no longer convinced Bayonetta will take it.

So I'm going on instinct and predicting Geralt barely speaks by.

Winner - Geralt (Geralt 50.42%)

Crew Consensus: Bayonetta wins by a hair.
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dont guest us, Guest
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So both of these are newcomers right? That means that a newcomer will go to Round 4? Damn!
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Bayonetta was in the 2013 contest.
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Safer_777 posted...

So both of these are newcomers right? That means that a newcomer will go to Round 4? Damn!

Bayonetta was in the 2013 contest. She even won a match!
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Oh okay. So Geralt is our hope then eh? Man it would be awesome if he won. But alas I believe. Eh we will see.
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Simon > Pac-Man isn't the strangest thing in the world to happen. Geralt winning is plausible I think.
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Round 3 Auron vs. Sub-Zero

Moltars Analysis

Auron
Round 1 - 65.44% vs. Lucina
Round 2 - 55.80% vs. Vincent Valentine

Sub-Zero
Round 1 - 62.57% vs. Shulk
Round 2 - 66.26% vs. Claire Redfield

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2546
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3273

How much have things changed over the years?

Well if Vivi/DK says anything, its not much.

Moltars Bracket: Auron

Moltars Prediction: Auron 59%

transiences Analysis

Auron should outclass Sub. Sub had a really nice r2 performance against Claire and passed the generic Smash Bros dude test quite easily, but Auron's on another level. This is a classic 60/40 type of match.

Sub might be a little better than before, gauging off of Street Fighter and his performances, and Auron might be a little worse than we would normally expect given Yuna and Tidus, but I doubt this is closer than 55/45. If it is, we need to start considering big bracket implications.

transience's prediction: Auron with 58.99%

Leonharts Analysis

Weve seen this match a few times in the past, and theyve all been around 60/40. I guess its possible Sub-Zero could get a little bit closer now like DK did with Vivi, but I cant envision a scenario where he actually wins. Even if Auron has dropped off a little bit, it hasnt been THAT much.

Leonharts Vote: Sub-Zero

Leonharts Prediction: Auron with 59.59%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Weve seen this before. Yes, it was 12 years ago, but I havent seen any evidence to suggest the result of this match would flip since then. Auron looked just fine so far, and thats more than enough for him to put away Subby.

Kleenexs Prediction: Auron with 58%

Guests Analysis - MetalmindStats

I know its a longshot, but I really think that Sub-Zero can surprise everyone and pull off a victory here. Why, you might ask? Thats a very good question!
For one, Auron hasnt really impressed so far. 65% on Lucina is good if you think she isnt fodder, but less than 56% on a vastly diminished Vincent isnt impressive at all, and Vincents weakness incidentally speaks to his own struggles, as the two are similar characters in where they get their appeal from (character design and being popular side characters in Golden Age Final Fantasies).

In direct contrast, Sub-Zero has looked rock solid so far, pulling over 62% on Shulk, who has quite a few reasons to boost tremendously from 2013 and could easily be a low midcarder at this point. Then, the ninja bettered that still next round by almost doubling an admittedly pic-hindered Claire Redfield, an established decent presence in these contests fresh off her long overdue first victory.

The trends weve seen so far benefit Subby here too. In particular, 90s icons have overperformed time and time again so far, with even Lara looking as strong as she did back in 2013 fresh off that years Tomb Raider revitalizing her series. Incidentally, Sub-Zero was also revitalized that year in the wake of 2011s Mortal Kombat, and the case of Lara is a good sign for him retaining his strength. Another indicator backing that up is Scorpion managing to avoid a doubling against Pikachu, which makes his strength look essentially unchanged in light of the mouses validation. And in addition to his old-school appeal, Sub-Zero is likely to accrue a significant portion of Nintendo fans votes given his roots versus Aurons lack of any major appearances on Nintendo platforms.

Ultimately, this might be a longshot, grasping-at-straws upset for the sake of picking an upset, but what does the guest slot exist for but as a platform to foster wild gambles on potential upsets?

Prediction: Sub-Zero wins with 51.01%

Crew Consensus: History repeats itself and Auron wins again.
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I'm surprised people think Lucina is that much stronger than Shulk, tbh.
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

I love the uninanimous Zelda/Fox picks. Really goes to show just how much the pendulum has swung towards Nintendo when these previously obvious picks have been completely reversed.

Wasn't unanimous

Wishing I had stuck with Aerith now though

Also I guess I was supposed to click on that Zen thing
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Well at minimum on the stats Lucina 55-45s Shulk based on 2013 and the three Fire Emblem Awakening stats in the bracket vs Shulk

At maximum it's more like a 60-40 if you take the highest value vs him (Chrom) instead.

Fire Emblem Awakening is a pretty big deal here, never mind any Heroes boost, so to me it passes the 'common sense' test to think the 60-40 is possible too.
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Xenoblade Chronicles did better than Awakening against the same opponent, and there's been way more stuff for Shulk since then than for Lucina!
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

and there's been way more stuff for Shulk since then than for Lucina!

Not really
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Xenoblade Chronicles did better than Awakening against the same opponent, and there's been way more stuff for Shulk since then than for Lucina!

We're going to talk about Xenoblade barely beating out Awakening as a reason for Shulk to be stronger?
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Leonhart4 posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Xenoblade Chronicles did better than Awakening against the same opponent, and there's been way more stuff for Shulk since then than for Lucina!

We're going to talk about Xenoblade barely beating out Awakening as a reason for Shilk to be stronger?

I'm using it as a counter to 'Awakening is a big deal here!' as though that is a reason for Lucina to be stronger than Shulk.

If anything Awakening doing worse than Xenoblade should be a sign of Awakening weakening in 2 years if you're going to credit Awakening being a big deal as a reason for 2013 stats, let alone since then.
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