Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1313

(+) Yeah! (+)

Those were sprite match round. Getting a sprite is incredibly damaging to Snake's strength.
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I mean this is what Snake looks like in the first MSX game. A completely generic and unidentifiable soldier guy. He doesn't look much better in MG2 either.

If Solid Shit loses, I have to say it's because the remaining people on this site have no experience with the archaic MSX games, and it doesn't affect Zelda, like TRE is saying.
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I would say that nobody on B8 would intentionally submit sprites after all we've seen from them in the past, but I guess I was wrong.
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huge spike for ganondorf and alucard
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Huh. This is not looking good here. Come on Bowser, you can do better than that!
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KamikazePotato posted...

I would say that nobody on B8 would intentionally submit sprites after all we've seen from them in the past, but I guess I was wrong.

Only Ulti really seems to love sprite pictures and he was the one who submitted all of today's sprite pictures.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

IJudging by Alucards Performance. I wouldn't take that at all.

Cloud would Comfortably beat both Pikachu and MM. Crono probably would too but i the low 50's.

And Ganon isn't on any level anymore. Absolute weak Fraud.

Obviously if we take Ganon as being a fraud then Cloud comfortably beats Pika/MM.

But I was saying if we are taking Ganon=Bowser (which could still be the case and the two have been pretty close in the past) we have:

MM 60-40 Ganon
Cloud 60-40 Alucard
Alucard 47-53 Bowser

From that we could see MM (and by extension Pika) > Cloud
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Also i haven't visted this board Pre Contest for years.

Did noone try and rally to get Linkle in the Character Contest? I mean that would have been so amazing to see.
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KamikazePotato posted...

I would say that nobody on B8 would intentionally submit sprites after all we've seen from them in the past, but I guess I was wrong.

Some characters have good sprites and I think it is okay if they get them. But, submitting something like Sprite Snake is blatant sabotage.
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Link versus Cloud posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

IJudging by Alucards Performance. I wouldn't take that at all.

Cloud would Comfortably beat both Pikachu and MM. Crono probably would too but i the low 50's.

And Ganon isn't on any level anymore. Absolute weak Fraud.

Obviously if we take Ganon as being a fraud then Cloud comfortably beats Pika/MM.

But I was saying if we are taking Ganon=Bowser (which could still be the case and the two have been pretty close in the past) we have:

MM 60-40 Ganon
Cloud 60-40 Alucard
Alucard 47-53 Bowser

From that we could see MM (and by extension Pika) > Cloud

Noones taking Ganon= Bowser though

Theres no way Bowser would be getting 60-40'd by friggin Mega Man. Maybe 10 years ago but Mario doing amazingly well should tell you Bowser is no joke.

And neither is Alucard by the looks of it. Jesus.
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Everybody start submitting PS1 Snake pics. It might count, especially since he'll be going up against PS2 model Auron.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

I would say that nobody on B8 would intentionally submit sprites after all we've seen from them in the past, but I guess I was wrong.

Some characters have good sprites and I think it is okay if they get them. But, submitting something like Sprite Snake is blatant sabotage.

It would be agaisnt Sonic or other N9's or even peopel ike Tifa and Bowser but He should beat Auron with a Sprite pic. Hell he would definotely beat Spire Ganon.
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Nameless2000 posted...

Everybody start submitting PS1 Snake pics. It might count, especially since he'll be going up against PS2 model Auron.

i think its based on first appearance ;/ So, we SHOULD see chubby sonic back(hell ya!) for example.
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Snake wins with around 60% I believe. If it is anything lower I will be suprised. Yeah he lost to Zelda who is the strongest Zelda has ever been.
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SlugSh0t posted...

Nameless2000 posted...

Everybody start submitting PS1 Snake pics. It might count, especially since he'll be going up against PS2 model Auron.

i think its based on first appearance ;/ So, we SHOULD see chubby sonic back(hell ya!) for example.

Alucard is from Castlevania 3 originally!
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After seeing this I'm happy Pikachu is getting fed to Link next round. I'd rather not see him wreck the mid-Noble Nine.
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Oh wait, I forgot. Then he'll be in losers bracket.
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red sox 777 posted...

After seeing this I'm happy Pikachu is getting fed to Link next round. I'd rather not see him wreck the mid-Noble Nine.

He'll most likely Face Crono.

But I'm going to take Crono in that match. He has far bette suppot in Europe than MM and imo just that little bit more powerful to withstand rallying from Pikachu
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red sox 777 posted...

Oh wait, I forgot. Then he'll be in losers bracket.

There's a chance Pikachu loses the rematch to Mega Man, stopping Pikachu from going on a rampage through the Losers bracket.
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3 people fell off the Top 50. redrocket, Metal_DK and Ranticoot did not have Mario and Samus winning.

1 person got one wrong but survived. pronouncemyname also did not have Mario and Samus winning.

23 people fell off the Second Chance Top 50. awesomesega94, Ghost_Turtle, belisar6, dancing_cactuar, gunplagirl, ShiryuChaos, Sevon, Correct_Facts, Frankie_Spankie, Full_Throttle, drude247, FaultyGourry, SuikoKid2, TyVulpine, AzureTheShade, GallerieDuIb, Gaiden325, sickie09ismine, Sutekidane, Darkmoonchild08, koakuma666, fat8me and Syd_CB did not have Mario and Samus winning.
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Ganondorf currently has 56% in the UK.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

Noones taking Ganon= Bowser though

Theres no way Bowser would be getting 60-40'd by friggin Mega Man. Maybe 10 years ago but Mario doing amazingly well should tell you Bowser is no joke.

And neither is Alucard by the looks of it. Jesus.

I mean coming into this no one thought Ganon would be getting 60-40'd by friggin Mega Man either. The spread betting line for the match was 53-47.

Also if we are going to extrapolate Bowser from how beastly Mario has looked, Link will still be stronger than Mario so why does that mean Ganon shouldn't be strong as well?

I think this beat down shows its at least POSSIBLE that MM didn't actually drop much at all in order to lose to Pika and its instead a massive Pika boost to where he could even be mid-noble 9. I wouldn't be super confident in taking anyone in the NN besides Link/Mario/Samus over Pika atm.
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In a way, I guess this result isn't really that surprising since Sonic got 57% on Ganon in 2010 in the sprite round, where Ganon got an ALttP sprite instead of this even uglier LoZ1 sprite.
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Link versus Cloud posted...

I think this beat down shows its at least POSSIBLE that MM didn't actually drop much at all in order to lose to Pika and its instead a massive Pika boost to where he could even be mid-noble 9

My initial impression is Pika lower noble 9 status now. Same with Zelda.
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NowItsAngeTime posted...

Link versus Cloud posted...

I think this beat down shows its at least POSSIBLE that MM didn't actually drop much at all in order to lose to Pika and its instead a massive Pika boost to where he could even be mid-noble 9

My initial impression is Pika lower noble 9 status now. Same with Zelda.

Zelda might be stronger. I would take her over MM and Sonic right now so above Pikachu.

We don't even knw how strong Crono is really or even cloud to an Extent.

What we do know is Indirectly Link and Mario are 1 and 2 right now without any doubt. Samus is most likely 3rd but we have to see Cloud perform first I still would take Samus>Cloud by a whisker.
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I wonder if the sprites affect Bowser/Alucard at all. Probably not because the result seems fairly normal so far, but who knows.
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Bowser and Alcuard are very recognizable since you see them all the time in their game origination in sprite form so highly doubt
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We're already about 500 votes behind yesterday's matches at the end of the first hour. The sprite pictures could be hurting our vote totals, but it's also possible we're seeing the "Saturday vote total penalty" again since these matches are starting on Friday night heading into Saturday.

I did research a while back and calculated average vote totals for each day of the week in the regular polls and the research shows the highest average vote totals happen on Monday-Thursday. Friday polls show roughly a 7% reduction in vote totals compared to Monday-Thursday. Saturday polls are even more severe at a 12% reduction in vote totals, while Sunday has only about 3% reduction.
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LusterSoldier posted...

We're already about 500 votes behind yesterday's matches at the end of the first hour. The sprite pictures could be hurting our vote totals, but it's also possible we're seeing the "Saturday vote total penalty" again since these matches are starting on Friday night heading into Saturday.

I did research a while back and calculated average vote totals for each day of the week in the regular polls and the research shows the highest average vote totals happen on Monday-Thursday. Friday polls show roughly a 7% reduction in vote totals compared to Monday-Thursday. Saturday polls are even more severe at a 12% reduction in vote totals, while Sunday has only about 3% reduction.

Seems about right. Friday night is when people party or hang out at friends places or play video games or do anything
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The fact that it's the losers bracket could also be hurting vote totals.

LusterSoldier posted...

We're already about 500 votes behind yesterday's matches at the end of the first hour. The sprite pictures could be hurting our vote totals, but it's also possible we're seeing the "Saturday vote total penalty" again since these matches are starting on Friday night heading into Saturday.

I did research a while back and calculated average vote totals for each day of the week in the regular polls and the research shows the highest average vote totals happen on Monday-Thursday. Friday polls show roughly a 7% reduction in vote totals compared to Monday-Thursday. Saturday polls are even more severe at a 12% reduction in vote totals, while Sunday has only about 3% reduction.

Damn. Why couldn't the Zelda Snake match be on a Saturday? Snake might have won the anonmyous votes
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tennisboy213 posted...

The fact that it's the losers bracket could also be hurting vote totals.

Smash is coming out next week. Which means a lot more user trafic on this site(and just about any site that has Nintendo forums on it) So expect much higher Votals
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Wasn't planning on submitting pics this year, but I went ahead and submitted these in case Allen is still accepting match pics for tomorrow. Had to use Metal Gear (MSX) for the background because Snake blended in too much with anything I tried to use from MGS1.

https://imgur.com/AWzGcBH
https://imgur.com/5bzNmMK
https://imgur.com/tuGfcyY
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Hahaha what a garbage sprite.

Dorf's division is going to look so bad.
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Wow, Alucard's been cutting.
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This sucks. Crono is doomed against Cloud now isn't he?
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Yeah, Crono doesn't really have much of a chance to win.
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NowItsAngeTime posted...

Seems about right. Friday night is when people party or hang out at friends places or play video games or do anything

In terms of the raw vote totals, a match being on a Saturday only reduces the raw vote totals by about 5.55% compared to matches on Monday-Thursday. This is only about half of the normal Saturday penalty for regular polls. This could reflect the fact that contest matches are more effective in getting people to vote compared to regular polls, which lessens the penalty for a match happening on a Saturday.

I got around to researching whether registered users or anonymous users are impacted more by the Saturday vote total penalty. I had a very limited sample size of only 4 Saturdays to work with, since the first day of Saturday matches had terrible vote totals because that was only Day 2 of the contest, before vote totals started to increase to their current level right now. I tossed out the first Saturday matches as they could skew the average due to the limited sample size.

The results showed that Saturday matches saw about a 6.2% reduction in votes from registered users and a 4.9% reduction in votes from anonymous users. Clearly registered users saw a bigger reduction in vote totals than anonymous users on a Saturday, but both groups of users were impacted by the Saturday vote total penalty.
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Looks like the winner of Pika/MM #2 will make top 6!
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Bacondorf screwing up the x-stats. :[ Now we'll forever have an underrated Division 1.

I suppose the best estimate we can get as far as adjusting Ganondorf up is perhaps using the 2007 contest where Luigi and Ganondorf were against each other twice in a row (and their second match had Bacondorf).
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Poor Neku. :(
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Based on Bowser/Kirby this year and Alucard/Kirby in 2003, what would Alucard get here?

Wondering because he seems close to that but it's likely a bizarre coincidence
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Jeez Alucard.

Equal to Kirby??
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Think people might be putting a bit too much stock in Mega Man's (and subsequently Pikachu's) performance. I'd say bacondorf is at least a 4-5% penalty here, which still puts MM at a respectable 55-45 on Ganondorf, but doesn't look likely to beat Cloud (although the Pokemon hentai forums will guarantee a Pikachu win there)
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

(although the Pokemon hentai forums will guarantee a Pikachu win there)

https://i.imgur.com/g9XrSBa.gif?1
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could Bowser also be underperforming a bit based on picture? especially compared to last round when he got an amazing pic

Wow, we might actually have a match between Bowser and Alucard.
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It's hard to really say if Bowser's picture is hurting him or not. Even if it is, it isn't a huge amount.
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Bowser's sprite, while not being the greatest look for him, should be sufficiently recognizable given how often the NES sprites show up in Nintendo works.
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Can you imagine Alucard's strength if he were actually playable in Ultimate? Or if sotn were released on switch(maybe not as much from this)?
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