Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1313

(+) Yeah! (+)

Legends and Loser Bracker, Round 1

Samus Aran vs. Tifa Lockheart
Registered Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 5675 (59.38%)
Tifa Lockheart - 3882 (40.62%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 5993 (58.11%)
Tifa Lockheart - 4321 (41.89%)

Mario vs. Sephiroth
Registered Vote Result:
Mario - 5750 (60.16%)
Sephiroth - 3808 (39.84%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Mario - 5937 (57.56%)
Sephiroth - 4377 (42.44%)

Samus does only barely more than 1% better with registered users, as the female characters in FFVII show that they hold up far better with the registered user vote compared to anyone else from FFVII.

Mario only does about 2.5% better with registered users. Falcon did about 3.5% better earlier in the contest for comparison purposes.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Bowser's sprite, while not being the greatest look for him, should be sufficiently recognizable given how often the NES sprites show up in Nintendo works.

This is sort of my thinking as well. It does look like Bowser and everyone has played SMB1. It might not be hurting Bowser at all. I just wish he had a normal picture to remove any doubt. Alucard's run deserves better than to end with an asterisk.
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Literally the only thing that suggests Alucard shouldn't be capable of this was Kirby vs Bowser, which wasn't a match to trust at face value anyway. I mean we have fairly standard comparisons of Alucard to Kefka vs Bowser through Charizard through Terra.
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Who's projected to do better in the night vote between Bowser and The Plan?
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Division 7

Samus Aran 50.00%
Tifa Lockhart 41.07%
Mega Man X 40.92%
Luigi 39.95%
Mewtwo 34.42%
Frog 30.66%
Revolver Ocelot 25.86%
GlaDOS 25.82%
King Dedede 25.60%
Miles Tails Prower 24.25%
Geno 22.02%
Master Chief 21.59%
Nathan Drake 20.99%
Miles Edgeworth 18.01%
Isabelle 15.84%
Monokuma 14.49%
Goro Majima 13.38%

Division 8

Mario 50.00%
Sephiroth 40.75%
Ryu 32.39%
Amaterasu 31.48%
Captain Falcon 28.58%
Lara Croft 28.39%
Albert Wesker 24.22%
Richter Belmont 22.64%
KOS-MOS 22.62%
Commander Shepard 21.67%
King K. Rool 21.13%
Ellie 20.61%
Lloyd Irving 20.44%
Aqua 19.28%
Metal Man 18.23%
Quiet 13.84%
Draven 7.47%
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For Chloe Price > Draven in the unadjusted stats Link needs to get 57.85% against Mario.
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So for Tifa>Sephiroth, Mewtwo has to be able to beat Ryu, eh
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charmander6000 posted...

For Chloe Price > Draven in the unadjusted stats Link needs to get 57.85% against Mario.

Oh no

Maybe I'll have to vote for Mario after all...
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Samus Aran 50.00%
Frog 30.66%

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2100-zebes-division-round-2-samus-aran-vs-frog
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I can't believe that if you replace KOS-MOS with Miles Edgeworth we could have had him winning two matches.
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SSBU isn't able to double eight other games combined in the hype poll. Somehow I find this disappointing.

Ooh, looks like it might still do it, though
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DoctorJimmy133 posted...

SSBU isn't able to double eight other games combined in the hype poll. Somehow I find this disappointing.

Ooh, looks like it might still do it, though

So much hype over an enhanced port...only on DroneFAQs
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SSBU is not an enhanced port of a previous Smash game. It's a completely new game in the series.
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Thank you for clearing that up, Luster. I'm sure he's seen the error of his ways and he won't make the mistake again.
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Does anyone know what will be Snake's pic tomorrow? PS1 or the horrible sprite?

We don't know what the pictures will be right now but a user has confirmed that they submitted a sprite picture for Snake.
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Really hope Allen doesn't use it. Pic sabotage is super lame.
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INTERWEBUSER posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

SSBU isn't able to double eight other games combined in the hype poll. Somehow I find this disappointing.

Ooh, looks like it might still do it, though

So much hype over an enhanced port...only on DroneFAQs

Do be fair, all those games are pretty much "what the fuck are they"

Katamari Damacy is liked enough, but it's just a HD port

Just Cause 4...I am surprised there is even 4, I thought 3 didn't sell? I played the second game and it was boring, the whole idea of 100% it is doing the same thing over and over again, destroying same-looking bases and outposts and the main story isn't much better either

Monster Boy and the Cursed Kingdom...I played Dragon's Curse back in the day and liked it, but nobody really cares about this series, so having a new game in it is whatever

Persona 3/5 - I have no idea why but nobody cares about Persona spin-offs. When a mainline Persona game comes out, it's hard to not hear about it, but spin offs like Persona Q are ignored

The rest I have no idea what they are even
Why is this month so weak when Christmas is coming up?
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Nanis23 posted...

Why is this month so weak when Christmas is coming up?

It's because Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the other associated retail occasions are huge deals from a sales perspective, so big holiday season games tend to release before Black Friday in order to squeeze the most money out of the holidays.

Seems Alucard will lose. If only there was a place to rally for him. But I don't think there is one.
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Twilight subreddit.
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Netflix subreddit

We're already about 2200 votes behind Red/Alucard and Bowser/Kirby, which is a fair comparison because they were also matches that happened on Saturday. This puts us on pace for less than 26000 votes, which would be even lower than our first 2 days of the contest.

There isn't really any obvious SFF matches today that could hurt our vote totals. At least Bowser/Kirby could have also dragged down Red/Alucard as well for a possible excuse. Seems like the sprite pictures are hurting us worse than expected.
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I can't believe that if you replace KOS-MOS with Miles Edgeworth we could have had him winning two matches.

I mean, Mario is stronger than Samus so no he would not. The idea of him being within striking range of Master Chief is pretty funny though. Granted Tails got SFF'd so it likely isn't legit.
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LusterSoldier posted...

We're already about 2200 votes behind Red/Alucard and Bowser/Kirby, which is a fair comparison because they were also matches that happened on Saturday. This puts us on pace for less than 26000 votes, which would be even lower than our first 2 days of the contest.

There isn't really any obvious SFF matches today that could hurt our vote totals. At least Bowser/Kirby could have also dragged down Red/Alucard as well for a possible excuse. Seems like the sprite pictures are hurting us worse than expected.

Losers bracket is boring
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So Alucard really redeemed Div 3 with this performance.

- Red now gets about 45% on Bowser, making him possibly the second strongest Pokemon character after Pikachu and ahead of Charizard.

- Sora now gets about 44% on Bowser, which is only slightly worse than the 45% he got on Bowser in 2010.

- Big Boss now gets about 43% on Bowser. This is only slightly lower than the 45% that he's projected to get on Bowser by 2010 xstats and Big Boss didn't have his Naked Snake picture this time.

So it seems like KH and MGS might not have fallen off as much as feared, although Bowser could have also fallen and I suspect there's a chance that Red overperformed in his match against Alucard due to LGPE. There's also a possibility that Alucard got a significant bandwagon against Bowser, but I feel the bandwagon should already be in full swing against Red.
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All these seem strange. But the stats don't lie!
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Yeah, it does seem strange doesn't it? I really feel like Red had to have overperformed a little against Alucard due to the LGPE timing.

- On the other hand, the theory that KH fell off a cliff also felt strange, considering how good the series looked in 2015 (KH2 put up some great numbers on Melee) and how much KH3 hype there is out there. Well, Riku still looks awful, but he looked awful in 2013 as well.

- As for Pokemon, Red looked stronger than Charizard in 2013 as well, so I suppose it's not that surprising. Remember, in 2013, Mewtwo was the main target of the rally, so he's the actual fraud and it's a mistake to group all Pokemon as frauds. Pikachu at the very least has clearly proven that he's legit.

- As for MGS, yes the series looked awful in 2015 and Ocelot looked awful in his match against X. But other than that, the assumption that MGS is complete s*** nowadays comes entirely from assuming Big Boss, The Boss and Snake fell off a cliff as well. We'll need to see how well Snake does against Auron tonight, but it's possible that The Boss and Snake fell less than we thought and it's mostly Zelda boosting.
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I expect Snake to score at least 57% myself.
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That's what I would assume. Although if he gets his NES sprites.... all bets are off.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3807-heart-division-round-2-kefka-vs-bowser

looks like Kefka is around the same strength he was in 2010.

thinking 2013 Kefka and GLaDOS might be frauds causing by having a really close wire-to-wire for second when the winner was obvious, and with the expert bracket giving who got second some actual stakes. Ike was behind them that year too, which would help explain why Phoenix looked so bad against Kirby. Wouldn't trust the likes of Altair, Zack, or Ryu Hayabusa to be consistent either; Zack in particular probably should have started dying off as Crisis Core got older. Lara Croft has looked good since but she at least potentially has being an icon and continuing to get new games as reasons to have gotten stronger since then, or maybe her and Altair had some overlap against Kefka.
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charmander6000 posted...

Any time I see/hear someone under the age of 40 complaining about Millennials, I assume what they really complaining about are people from Generation Z.

I feel like even dedicated KH fans don't really have any affection for Riku.
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The Owner of FF9 posted...

I feel like even dedicated KH fans don't really have any affection for Riku.

I suspect the general theory that villains lose their strength faster than heroes and are more dependent on having consistent releases/appearances to keep them fresh in people's minds has broad validity.
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Nanis23 posted...

LusterSoldier posted...

We're already about 2200 votes behind Red/Alucard and Bowser/Kirby, which is a fair comparison because they were also matches that happened on Saturday. This puts us on pace for less than 26000 votes, which would be even lower than our first 2 days of the contest.

There isn't really any obvious SFF matches today that could hurt our vote totals. At least Bowser/Kirby could have also dragged down Red/Alucard as well for a possible excuse. Seems like the sprite pictures are hurting us worse than expected.

Losers bracket is boring

The rematches will be even more boring.

Allen messed up badly by not shuffling the losers.

Crono and bowser and mm pikachu will go at it again when they should have been shuffled.

For example switch round 1 loser winners around.

Instead of MM facing Pikachu next round. He faces Crono. Pikachu faces Bowser

Sonic(assuming he loses to Zelda) faces Samus and sephiroth faces Snake.

That way we eliminate more duplicate matches until the losers semi finals.
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does the lower vote totals hurt someone more then the other in Alucard/Bowser? also is the lower vote total more a drop in unregistered voters or is it proportionate to the drop in registered votes?
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The first two rounds of Loser's bracket are boring, since the first one is just midcarder vs midcarder (or disgraced N9er beating a midcarder) and the second round are mostly repeat matches.

After that it should get more interesting though, since we get a lot of debated matches between powerhouses. And heck, none of them with Link.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

The first two rounds of Loser's bracket are boring, since the first one is just midcarder vs midcarder (or disgraced N9er beating a midcarder) and the second round are mostly repeat matches.

After that it should get more interesting though, since we get a lot of debated matches between powerhouses. And heck, none of them with Link.

Yeah but I think the 2nd of losers would be more interesting if it was shuffled.

I rather see crono v mega man than mm and pikachu again. Pikachu/bowser would be a great match too
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Kotetsu534 posted...

The Owner of FF9 posted...

I feel like even dedicated KH fans don't really have any affection for Riku.

I suspect the general theory that villains lose their strength faster than heroes and are more dependent on having consistent releases/appearances to keep them fresh in people's minds has broad validity.

Riku isn't a villain though.

He's a minor antagonist in the first game, being manipulated by Maleficent, and then his body is taken over by the main villain, Ansem. In the rest of the series, as far as I know (I haven't played coded or 3D), he's one of the good guys.
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God I've actually got platinum trophies for KH1 and KH2 and I completely forgot all that. I just remember his boss fights in KH1 (second fight with Forza del Male is probably one of the best fights in the series).
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Dude, I just replayed KHII in prep for KHIII, and I didn't remember 90% of the game.
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im317 posted...

does the lower vote totals hurt someone more then the other in Alucard/Bowser? also is the lower vote total more a drop in unregistered voters or is it proportionate to the drop in registered votes?

KP did some research and found there is some relationship between vote totals in the percentage of registered user votes. Lower vote totals seem to favor a higher percentage of registered users (and fewer unregistered users).

I also did some research on the Saturday vote total penalty in this post:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77252587/913331918
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Are you guys ready for Tifa > Sephiroth
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I don't think this happen. Unless Hentai rallies.
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Nanis23 posted...

Are you guys ready for Tifa > Sephiroth

Maybe for 10 minutes at the most, then Sephiroth takes the lead and never looks back.
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What's the biggest margin Tifa can win with that still gets us Mario > Samus
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pjbasis posted...

What's the biggest margin Tifa can win with that still gets us Mario > Samus

50.39%

Though if she gets more we can once and for all prove the existence of rSFF.
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LusterSoldier posted...

We're already about 2200 votes behind Red/Alucard and Bowser/Kirby, which is a fair comparison because they were also matches that happened on Saturday. This puts us on pace for less than 26000 votes, which would be even lower than our first 2 days of the contest.

There isn't really any obvious SFF matches today that could hurt our vote totals. At least Bowser/Kirby could have also dragged down Red/Alucard as well for a possible excuse. Seems like the sprite pictures are hurting us worse than expected.

Or everyone is sick of NintenDrones taking a giant dump on every single contest. If I dont like the characters I just dont vote.
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pjbasis posted...

What's the biggest margin Tifa can win with that still gets us Mario > Samus

100-0, Even if the stats say Samus is stronger than Mario she will still lose to HIERARCHY
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