Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1317

(+) Yeah! (+)

I can't believe Zelda is our second strongest character this year. Smdh
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We will have a record for lowest prediction ever right? In this contest Tifa with her 2.35 holds the record. Zelda will break it right?
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I think if it comes to Cloud v. Zelda the site will blink and realize that they are about to have a Link vs. Zelda grand final unless they come to their senses. And they will snap out of it and vote for Cloud.
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Yeah, I get the feeling that whoever loses to Link in match 147 isn't going to be in match 150.
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red sox 777 posted...

And they will snap out of it and vote for Cloud.

LOL
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red sox 777 posted...

I think if it comes to Cloud v. Zelda the site will blink and realize that they are about to have a Link vs. Zelda grand final unless they come to their senses. And they will snap out of it and vote for Cloud.

Then, they will remember Cloud got 40/60ed and won't vote at all !

Also give it a few more hours and Cloud will be at 44% on Link.
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@creativename

Okay, I think I have all of the match pictures for every match since the contest resumed after the Thanksgiving break.

I cannot fit all of the match picture URLs into a single post, but you can find all of them right here:

https://pastebin.com/GBMSd1e6
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Talk about Pic sabotage of the Highest ORder.

Seriously?
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Thank you Luster for doing that!

GO ZELDA! Crush my calculations!

So, either Zelda is rSFFing Mario, or.... my estimation of Mario's strength was way off. The only non-SFF match we have to measure Mario is his match against Sephiroth. Maybe Sephiroth's performance on Tifa was not rSFF, after all...
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Cloud will do better in the grand final too. The ideal way for this to go is for Zelda to beat Mario today, Samus to beat Mario in the rematch, and then Zelda to beat Samus. This will generate the maximum amount of Legend of Zelda anti-voting.
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LOZ anti voting on this site? Yeah sure.
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Safer_777 posted...

LOZ anti voting on this site? Yeah sure.

Did you see Link's early vote yesterday? It's come a long way.
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red sox 777 posted...

Cloud will do better in the grand final too. The ideal way for this to go is for Zelda to beat Mario today, Samus to beat Mario in the rematch, and then Zelda to beat Samus. This will generate the maximum amount of Legend of Zelda anti-voting.

Or Snake to beat Samus Beat Mario then Beat Zelda in a rematch and Then Beat link to win it all....
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OrangeCrush980 posted...

Yeah, I get the feeling that whoever loses to Link in match 147 isn't going to be in match 150.

Hopefully Snake pulls through.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Cloud will do better in the grand final too. The ideal way for this to go is for Zelda to beat Mario today, Samus to beat Mario in the rematch, and then Zelda to beat Samus. This will generate the maximum amount of Legend of Zelda anti-voting.

Or Snake to beat Samus Beat Mario then Beat Zelda in a rematch and Then Beat link to win it all....

Worst timeline no thank you. We had to endure this possibility from 2008 through 2013 and it was not pleasant, especially the 6 hours that Snake dared to actually lead against the king. Bow down before the might of the Hero of Time and admit that you will never ever win over him, Snake.
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red sox 777 posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Cloud will do better in the grand final too. The ideal way for this to go is for Zelda to beat Mario today, Samus to beat Mario in the rematch, and then Zelda to beat Samus. This will generate the maximum amount of Legend of Zelda anti-voting.

Or Snake to beat Samus Beat Mario then Beat Zelda in a rematch and Then Beat link to win it all....

Worst timeline no thank you. We had to endure this possibility from 2008 through 2013 and it was not pleasant, especially the 6 hours that Snake dared to actually lead against the king. Bow down before the might of the Hero of Time and admit that you will never ever win over him, Snake.

Yeah Obviously i was joking. But how cool woudl it be if he beat all those other guys
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Mario is Charging back now

I never thought id be rooting for Mario in this contest.

Go Mario Go Mario Go MArio!
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Tell me we are all voting Mario
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Like I said, I was really nervous about it for several years. Even in the Link/Snake bonus poll, I knew all it would take for Snake to win is for some people on the League of Legends subreddit to rally for Snake to stick it to our hero Link. Luckily they seemed not to realize how much more Link has won this contest than Snake.
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I've voted against Zelda in every match this contest. I can't stand her new BOTW look tbh. And shes awful in Ultimate. So is Shiek.
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red sox 777 posted...

Like I said, I was really nervous about it for several years. Even in the Link/Snake bonus poll, I knew all it would take for Snake to win is for some people on the League of Legends subreddit to rally for Snake to stick it to our hero Link. Luckily they seemed not to realize how much more Link has won this contest than Snake.

#

Back then Snake was the #2 on the site for sure.

If he was in MGSV and Kojima was still there Snake would undoubtedbly be stronger.
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And in retrospect, while I acknowledge Link probably would have lost both matches, I wish we had gotten Link vs. L-Block and Link vs. Draven 1v1 at the end of those contests.
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red sox 777 posted...

And in retrospect, while I acknowledge Link probably would have lost both matches, I wish we had gotten Link vs. L-Block and Link vs. Draven 1v1 at the end of those contests.

I wanted Link vs Draven now

I mean...Can we not get that as a Bonus Poll? Just to see Link get like 95% would be utterly hilarious.
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Bonus poll should be for the 3rd position.
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fuck mario go zelda
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Safer_777 posted...

Bonus poll should be for the 3rd position.

Not if it's a Duplicate match weve already seen.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

Back then Snake was the #2 on the site for sure.

There was never a time here when this applied to Snake.
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Link vs. Draven may have been the most fun I have had with a contest match. I was doing some long distance driving that day, which became much longer (timewise) because I spent hours at McDonalds restaurants along the road following the match and posting.

Draven's rally started from the opening of the match and I and a couple other people were the only ones who reasoned that Link still had a chance because the rally would fade off faster, and sure enough, come morning, the rally fell off and Gamefaqs natural vote intake rose and Link started cutting 1000+ per hour. Then came the DDOS attack during the height of Link's best time, which added controversy, and a little after that Draven caught his second rally and the match looked finished. Then came Link's fightback rally, where he started pulling updates on par with Draven and Undertale and cut 4000 votes into the face of a Draven rally before time ran out. What a match.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Back then Snake was the #2 on the site for sure.

There was never a time here when this applied to Snake.

I think people are just assuming based on 2013 and how he held up on rallies and perceived strength but remember that was a 3 ways
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There are also lots of people who falsely believe Snake gets hierarchy'd because of Smash.

What happened to Snake against Samus is no different than what happened to Mario against Seph in 2005 when he dominated the bracket for two months and then lost to a guy who looked bad against Bowser and Ganondorf. There was no hierarchy. Samus and Seph were just stronger that year despite underwhelming performances in the last two matches of the female and Villains Contest.
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A 3rd place poll isn't necessary, whoever loses in Losers Finals is a clear cut 3rd.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Back then Snake was the #2 on the site for sure.

There was never a time here when this applied to Snake.

Snake was top for danger level, for sure. As a Link fan, one never feels nervous about Link vs. Cloud. I can comfortably vote for Cloud, rooting for him to make the margin closer, year after year after year, never thinking that I might put Link's victory in jeopardy. Snake.....always seemed on the verge of catching one of those really dangerous bandwagons/rallies.
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Safer_777 posted...

Bonus poll should be for the 3rd position.

Bonus polls I want to see:

Link/Zelda (assuming Zelda loses to Mario)
Tifa/Cloud
Ganon/Seph (Got Villains finals rematch, alternatively Bowser/Seph and Bowser/Ganon will be great as well)
Mega Man/Mega Man X (need to settle this debate)
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also this year is showing that Snake has probably been on Mario and Samus's level for many years and still is

so while Snake might not have ever been a clear #2 he certainly could have been #2 in terms of X-Stats (and I think he would've been in 2013 because Nintendo was at a lower point than they are now)
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Back then Snake was the #2 on the site for sure.

There was never a time here when this applied to Snake.

Maybe in 2013, based on the Link/Snake bonus match. But it's hard to say if that bonus match really represented Snake's actual strength that year or if Snake was stronger than usual in that match due to his recent match against Draven.

But 2013 probably wouldn't have been a good year for Nintendo if that contest didn't get run over by rallies. 2013 was during a time when the site had soured on the Wii for a few years and the site wasn't in the mood to embrace the Wii U either. Nintendo's most popular characters probably would have been weaker that year based on the site's overall opinion of Nintendo at the time.
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I'd be very surprised if some of this isn't Zelda bandwagoning after getting to the semis, the insane board vote is a good indicator too. Mario probably beats her without too much trouble earlier in the contest. I really doubt Snake has a chance against Samus or Mario even if he might not look terrible going on.
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I'd like to see a Link vs. Link mini-contest or something fun like that, not just a regular bonus match. Separate Adult from Young Link and we could potentially have a TP Link vs. BotW Link final.
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squexa posted...

Bonus polls I want to see:

Link/Zelda (assuming Zelda loses to Mario)
Tifa/Cloud
Ganon/Seph (Got Villains finals rematch, alternatively Bowser/Seph and Bowser/Ganon will be great as well)
Mega Man/Mega Man X (need to settle this debate)

My idea was for some bonus polls involving only Noble Niners that have never faced each other in a 1v1 match. That requirement limits the pool of potential matches to the following:

Cloud/Mega Man
Crono/Samus
Crono/Sephiroth
Mario/Sonic
Mega Man/Samus
Sephiroth/Sonic

Mario/Sonic is the obvious match that most people want. I'd also choose Crono/Sephiroth to get a better read on Sephiroth's strength (and how he compares to Cloud). Cloud/Mega Man could technically happen in the Loser bracket if everything goes right, so it could be removed from consideration if Mega Man beats Crono.

However, we would have to avoid using the same character in more than one match if we're going to run multiple matches at the same time.
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Advokaiser posted...

I'd like to see a Link vs. Link mini-contest or something fun like that, not just a regular bonus match. Separate Adult from Young Link and we could potentially have a TP Link vs. BotW Link final.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3308-character-battle-bonus-link-link-link-link

CD-I Link final
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As fun as it might be to have a Link vs. Link final, that feels like tempting fate too much. Too much winning creates resentment and anger, and attracts outside rallies to stop Link. Link vs. Link, even if it's only technically one contest, feels like a lightning rod for anger and rallies. It's better to quietly win consistently than to make an ostentatious show of superiority only to be crushed under an outside rally.
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I think Snake may have been #2 in 2013, but it's never been a certainty like it was with Cloud for pretty much six years.
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LusterSoldier posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Back then Snake was the #2 on the site for sure.

There was never a time here when this applied to Snake.

Maybe in 2013, based on the Link/Snake bonus match. But it's hard to say if that bonus match really represented Snake's actual strength that year or if Snake was stronger than usual in that match due to his recent match against Draven.

But 2013 probably wouldn't have been a good year for Nintendo if that contest didn't get run over by rallies. 2013 was during a time when the site had soured on the Wii for a few years and the site wasn't in the mood to embrace the Wii U either. Nintendo's most popular characters probably would have been weaker that year based on the site's overall opinion of Nintendo at the time.

You sure about that? Drones defended the Wii U just as ferociously as any other Nintendo product. They kept insisting next years big release (sm3dw, mk8, ssbu) would catapult the Wii U ahead of PS4 and XB1,
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red sox 777 posted...

As fun as it might be to have a Link vs. Link final, that feels like tempting fate too much. Too much winning creates resentment and anger, and attracts outside rallies to stop Link. Link vs. Link, even if it's only technically one contest, feels like a lightning rod for anger and rallies. It's better to quietly win consistently than to make an ostentatious show of superiority only to be crushed under an outside rally.

Or we can have a real, exciting contest by excluding all Nintendo and classic Square products.
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INTERWEBUSER posted...

Drones defended the Wii U just as ferociously as any other Nintendo product.

Yeah but there were also a lot less drones
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INTERWEBUSER posted...

red sox 777 posted...

As fun as it might be to have a Link vs. Link final, that feels like tempting fate too much. Too much winning creates resentment and anger, and attracts outside rallies to stop Link. Link vs. Link, even if it's only technically one contest, feels like a lightning rod for anger and rallies. It's better to quietly win consistently than to make an ostentatious show of superiority only to be crushed under an outside rally.

Or we can have a real, exciting contest by excluding all Nintendo and classic Square products.

nobody agreed with you the last 500 times you posted this I doubt anyone will this time

LusterSoldier posted...

My idea was for some bonus polls involving only Noble Niners that have never faced each other in a 1v1 match. That requirement limits the pool of potential matches to the following:

Cloud/Mega Man
Crono/Samus
Crono/Sephiroth
Mario/Sonic
Mega Man/Samus
Sephiroth/Sonic

Mario/Sonic is the obvious match that most people want. I'd also choose Crono/Sephiroth to get a better read on Sephiroth's strength (and how he compares to Cloud). Cloud/Mega Man could technically happen in the Loser bracket if everything goes right, so it could be removed from consideration if Mega Man beats Crono.

However, we would have to avoid using the same character in more than one match if we're going to run multiple matches at the same time.

Wish we got Mario/Sonic back in the early 2000s... feel like it's too much of a one sided beating these days unfortunately. And Cloud/Mega Man can still happen in the loser's bracket.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I think Snake may have been #2 in 2013, but it's never been a certainty like it was with Cloud for pretty much six years.

Cloud was stronger than Snake in 2008, but Snake still beat Cloud in the matches that mattered. 2-1, the last one in the final without LFF (barring whatever minor LFF Crono was giving with his 12%). That final was the first time I had ever felt fear when rooting for Link in these things, and it's because Snake was doing the classic bandwagon trait of getting stronger every round. (I called Cloud > Link 2003 based on anti-champion voting so I was rooting for that result).
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pjbasis posted...

INTERWEBUSER posted...

Drones defended the Wii U just as ferociously as any other Nintendo product.

Yeah but there were also a lot less drones

Ok. Maybe it was 98% of this site as opposed to the 99.9% now.
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Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 3 and later

Link vs. Cloud Strife
Registered Vote Result:
Link - 5849 (61.27%)
Cloud Strife - 3697 (38.73%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Link - 6065 (59.11%)
Cloud Strife - 4196 (40.89%)

This is the first time Link has done better with registered users in this contest, around 2% better compared to the anonymous users.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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