Current Events > americans, how likely is it that trump will be re-elected?

(+) Yeah! (+)

times like these i much prefer living in the eu.
---

50/50
---

99.9%

Have you seen the democratic nomination field lol
---

both 50/50 and 99.9 is too much, something seriously needs to be done.

Yao posted...

99.9%

Have you seen the democratic nomination field lol

not really, i know there is a lot of them though. surely one of them can get back a lot of the so called center people that trump took. though i doubt parts of that theory anyway since he didnt win the popular vote.
---

Pretty likely. There are really only 2 types of people in America, old and/or racist pieces of shit and people who don't vote.
---

He received 45 percent of the vote in 2016 and his approval rating since has hovered in the low 40s. In a two-party system, that's generally bad news. Additionally, his opponent in 2020 will almost certainly be more popular than Hillary Clinton. But the undemocratic aspects of our electoral system might reward him with a win anyways.
---

Antifar posted...

He received 45 percent of the vote in 2016 and his approval rating since has hovered in the low 40s. In a two-party system, that's generally bad news. Additionally, his opponent in 2020 will almost certainly be more popular than Hillary Clinton. But the undemocratic aspects of our electoral system might reward him with a win anyways.

the dems/whoever is on the other side need to seriously bring about change to that silly system. the fact the republicans have had TWO people elected to the highest position in the country with less votes is crazy.
---

StanZarnack posted...

Antifar posted...

He received 45 percent of the vote in 2016 and his approval rating since has hovered in the low 40s. In a two-party system, that's generally bad news. Additionally, his opponent in 2020 will almost certainly be more popular than Hillary Clinton. But the undemocratic aspects of our electoral system might reward him with a win anyways.

the dems/whoever is on the other side need to seriously bring about change to that silly system. the fact the republicans have had TWO people elected to the highest position in the country with less votes is crazy.

Please, this is America. The billionaires like it and that's the only thing that could possibly matter. We're in this bitch until the crash.
---

With Russias help again probably very likely bunch of traitors
---

Pretty high. The two parties are certified insane.

Trump shouldn't win anything, but when your party can make Trump seem more appealing, that should be an eye opener
---

Too likely
---

At least 75% if you ask me. Incumbents almost always win, and Trump is ludicrously popular within the Republican voter base, so it's unlikely we'll see many people change votes.
---

I really don't know.
---

Republican governers will continue to try and supress votes aswell
---

I don't want him to win, but I'm estimating an 80% chance of him winning, purely on the idiocy of the DNC's cream of the crop.
---

It's 50/50 so far >_> It honestly could go either way.
---

30% to 35%
---

I think its pretty likely he'll be reelected. If people are really upset about him being in office then they need to participate in voting as much as possible and not just for the presidential election. It'll depend on whether the democratic nominee will encourage more people to vote.
---

It depends a lot on who the Democrats nominate. Biden and Buttigieg would probably lose, and Harris is basically employing a lot of the old Clinton types, so that's not great either(Harris herself is horrible and cynical, but she's at least got some charisma and can speak well).

He barely won the last term, his popularity has gone down since, and we don't have Hildawg at the head anymore.

A significant minority of his voterbase only went with him as the lesser of two evils.
---

Very likely with a booming economy and a sea of shitty nominations from the other side.
---

It's pretty much entirely down to who the Democrat candidate is. Republicans that dislike Trump will still vote Republican.

If the voter turnout doesn't change from 2016, he'll win it again. His floor hasn't moved in three years.

The biggest opportunity for change here is for new voters registered from 2017 to 2020. On one side, a lot of these new voters are popping up in purple electoral districts and turning them blue, Trump hate is partially to blame for that. On the other, these new voters are much less engaged than the average politico and much more vulnerable to losing interest because of lack of enthusiasm. And that's kind of what circles around all the criticism Pelosi is getting from the left. They worry Pelosi is playing political games to the detriment of liberal moral certainty and potential voter enthusiasm.

No one should be in the prediction game, and no matter what you want as your outcome you have to think as though all of the balls are in play. That said, on a general history reading, this is the president's race to lose.
---

Dems are going lose, and AOC is going to win the election after. No other Democratic candidate has the charisma to pull it off.
---

ill tell you one thing

if the democrats lose again, its because they didn't go far left enough

obviously

Pretty likely.
The economy is doing good. He's an incumbent. He's seems to be the most popular Rep amongst that party since Reagan. The constant outrage on the news over him is just the same people still bitter over Hillary losing. It's not anyone or anything new.

While the other side is at war with themselves. The far left isn't satisfied with anyone. No one is left enough for them. So they rant and scream and if Biden gets the nom they won't vote for him. If somehow one of the far left candidates gets picked you'll have the opposite problem. The centrist dems are not going to vote for someone that crazy.
And that's it overall. Trump's rude, he shoots off his mouth, etc, etc. Whatever. End of the day he hasn't done a thing to actually negatively impact any of us. And who he is and what his policies are is a known element.
If someone like Warren were to be the Dem nom. That's a whole new bag of crazy that most people are not going to be willing to make an exchange for.
A republican will vote republican. A leftist, which a sizable enough chunk of these Dem voters are, won't vote democrat simply because. They'll have a dozen bs reasons as to why they won't. All coming down to "it's not the candidate I wanted".
---

Gobstoppers12 posted...

Incumbents almost always win

only true in the legislature

of the 43 men who served as president before the current incumbent, only 16 won two consecutive elections

granted, many of them died or didn't win their party's primary, but even of those who did, only 16/26 won, and four of those were washington, adams, madison, and jefferson
---

The constant outrage on the news over him is just the same people still bitter over Hillary losing

Imagine actually believing this.
---

EternalDivide posted...

They'll have a dozen bs reasons as to why they won't. All coming down to "it's not the candidate I wanted".

We hear this a lot, but to some degree those people are a very vocal minority, as in less than 10%. The overwhelming majority bit their tongue and voted Hillary. After these past three years, I don't think those people will do that again. New voters might, though.
---

If the Dems can pull off a repeat of the 2018 mid term turnout, the GOP is in trouble. That's a big IF though...
---

Trump only won by less than 100k votes spread across three states because people stayed home thinking Hillary was going to win by so much that their single vote wouldn't make a difference, not realizing a shitload of other people did the same thing

Four years of his bullshit will have them showing up to fucking vote this time.
---

littlebro07 posted...

Trump only won by less than 100k votes spread across three states because people stayed home thinking Hillary was going to win by so much that their single vote wouldn't make a difference, not realizing a shitload of other people did the same thing

Four years of his bullshit will have them showing up to fucking vote this time.

A lot of citizens have immigrant relatives and friends. Ironically, ICE is doing the opposite of the chilling effect.
---

I really don't want Trump being in charge of the 9/11 20 year ceremony.
---

45% probability

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election
---

Less than 25 percent.
---

He'll prolly be re-elected, since Dems are gonna fuck over the only 2 good candidates they have for Biden and that dude's gonna get slapped around like a fish by Trump
---

Solid Sonic posted...

I really don't want Trump being in charge of the 9/11 20 year ceremony.

It will be all about how he heroically rushed into both towers to save as many real Americans as possible
---

Evening_Dragon posted...

The constant outrage on the news over him is just the same people still bitter over Hillary losing

Imagine actually believing this.

I believed this for the first part of his presidency, but then Trump went and done be Trump and I realize "woah, maybe they weren't overreacting after all"
---

Pretty good. The left is eating itself and he constantly pops them with zingers that really seem to stick. Almost all of bidens momentum was killed by the memes.
---

Very likely. DNC is getting cocky and not stepping up with decent candidates imo.
---

0xDEFECADE posted...

Very likely. DNC is getting cocky and not stepping up with decent candidates imo.

I'm behind Butt.
---