Board 8 > Yu Yu Hakusho Mafia Topic 3: ROSE WHIP!!!

(+) Yeah! (+)

Please follow me on Scare if you want an easy scum lynch today. This is not based on Blade's play but Scare's.
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Think we should wait for Lea the counterclaimed watcher, Ben!
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I dont think Ben actually reads the day if he thinks you're obvtown to be fair
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You've said that about others...!
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Official Votals as of post 204

(4) Chris: IGCD, Corrik, Lopen, Scare
(2) Corrik: Gravy, Chris
(1) FD: MZero
(1) Scare: Ben

@ me with any errors

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

@MysticBrohan your vote did not count because it was not bolded.

DAY THREE KING BAY BEE caps

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Lopen posted...

Easier theory

1. Scum solves that Sultan is likely SK due to a random night action on him failing. Probably a rolecop or something as you would leave Sultan alive if he's not a power role, so strong rolecop choice.
2. Chris gambits to rid the SK because he knows his lifespan is short anyway after that day 1. Note his initial role could actually plausibly hit an untargetable SK had town just bought the claim. It is almost too convenient in that way.
3. Problem is people don't believe Chris, and further, people are fighting the theory that Chris would be bussing a scummate as well. At that point, if Chris goes down and flips scum, they've got an SK in the game that is going to be super hard to lunch.
4. It's looking like Chris is going to be lynched, leaving a relatively cleared SK to go wild. Scummate Lea goes in and doubles down to get the SK lynched. She expects that Sultan will expect watch and claim to have targeted Chris. And if he's SK and doc protected Chris, this isn't even that weird to consider since only one kill. Open and shut case if he does that.
5. Sultan is crazy and just claims his actual target, which is BP explaining the one kill. Problem here is that now Lea's claim now makes almost no sense, so two are exposed.

So yeah I think both Chris and Lea are scum here.

.... your takes disgust me. I want to argue against every point, but I'll make it simple by asking - why would scum have thought Sultan was SK? Wouldn't they just assume bluffing Chris?
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Who is more drunk Ben or Brohan
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I have not been reading in much depth. Spent about a total of 45 minutes of time in total on this game so far because of being busy. However I read enough to know Chris is town. And that was based on day 1, not the Sultan crusade (which only helps his case more)
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I give credit to fellow Dark Nationer Lopen for making me think further about the Watch however!

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Oh you're basing everything off of Chris being scum. I getcha now.

If you are even town, we are simply incompatible.
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Current theory scum Chris knew his time was up and decided to go super hard on sultan.

Weird game.
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Ironically you could have quoted Gravy's take where he said scum guessed Sultan was untargetable based on Chris's claiming roleblocked

Which is almost suspicious in a way like why did you both come to that stupid conclusion
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Allow me to be more precise with my words.

When it comes to hosting I don't need to have reviewed a game to make statements about setup meta. SK + scum vig in a 17 player game could result in 4 dead town before day 2 which is pretty crazy and very unlikely. So when you snidely dismiss my questioning of your theory with experience and this in mind I am going to be a bit snide back.

My point was maybe the game is imbalanced. I have never been in a game hosted by either of them so that would mean it's been at least a long time since they hosted. We also don't know what the setup is. Town could have a BP and a player that can revive or be revived, hell someone mentioned that Ulti is a character that gets revived.
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MysticBrohan posted...

okay im typing this up at ~4:30am est because when the day starts tomorrow im gonna be fucking annihilated so hopefully drunk me remembers to post this

okay first and foremost igcd you fuckin suck what a garbage hammer wow that was the worst im mad and nobody invited when the had ample time i am livid

okay so I am Botan, TOWN Watcher.
N1 i watched Blade and he was visited by nobody. why, you ask? no real reason i kinda just picked without thinking too hard
N2 i watched greengravy294 and he was visited by _______ yada yada words im gay hejjjh gotem
right now i regret watching him cuz i think he might be scum but i already sent the PM so oh well. i mean he could be town. it just depends if you think he would go through the trouble of typing out all of that shit defending chris as scum. gut says no, but i could also totally see a world where scum gravy does do that so im not completely convinced. either way i probably couldve picked a better target lol oh well

now i know whoever you are reading this post you probably think im pretty scummy/youre mafia and i HATE you, but just for a moment put those feelings away and try really hard to pretend everything im saying is true.

what i POSTULATE is that chris and Lea are in cahoots; scum teaming up to take down the pillar of board 8 mafia that is sultanofslam. or rather just a pretty easy target they figured they could nail with some good old-fashioned pressure (thank god they didnt pick me). i believe Lea is actually a Watcher, just for mafia. [this will be extra true if the doctor is dead today cuz they probably tried to save chris].

im pretty sure chris just pulled that gambit because he figured he was on borrowed time and wanted to take down as much town power as possible. little did he know sultan was actually independent so we sure lucked out on that one. the doctor probably saved him from the serial killer wow way to go dude smh fuckin chris dick-riders. had sultan flipped town i imagine they Lea wouldve just claimed bus driver shenanigans. dang so they have a bus driver, or at least one use of the power. im kind of just rambling gosh i hope people are reading this.

ive considered the possibility of Lea being town and us having 2 watchers, but it doesnt really make sense to me with us also having a Tracker. ive also thought about chris actually being town, but again that makes much less sense than the alternative. chris working with Lea explains why he went after sultan immediately with that gambit, and gives him an out

i sure hope night 2 doesnt invalidate all of this. if it does imma still post it cuz i went through all the trouble of typing it on my phone at fuckin geez its already 5 time for bed

also i hope this day lasts more than 6 god damn hours

##vote: Lea

Kmg I love this man.
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Should have been omg
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Brogan is just joking.

And Scare already knows that I know he's scum
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Well it is almost certain at this point that the RB occurred because red RB'd Chris both nights. I am confident in this read.

I dont think coming to the conclusion that sultan caused the role block is that crazy though, especially on day 2.

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IGCD is town of course. And I think FD is town just because of that comment he made being annoyed with Mzero.

There's my low effort but still probably accurate reads
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IfGodCouldDie posted...

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Allow me to be more precise with my words.

When it comes to hosting I don't need to have reviewed a game to make statements about setup meta. SK + scum vig in a 17 player game could result in 4 dead town before day 2 which is pretty crazy and very unlikely. So when you snidely dismiss my questioning of your theory with experience and this in mind I am going to be a bit snide back.

My point was maybe the game is imbalanced. I have never been in a game hosted by either of them so that would mean it's been at least a long time since they hosted. We also don't know what the setup is. Town could have a BP and a player that can revive or be revived, hell someone mentioned that Ulti is a character that gets revived.

Ah. I know Pez and Tom, they aren't crazy.
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Lea is undoubtedly an actual watcher since there's no reason to risk messing up that claim on a high risk low reward situation like that. Could be scum watcher just revealing at a time when he can be "helpful", but I still think it's high risk because anyone on the scum team would have been expecting Sultan flips town. And Watchers can't just keep surviving night kills. If another town scanning role exists then Lea is a lot more likely scum, but for now tracker and watcher is a perfectly viable combo
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Nothing Corrik has done yet has given me any town reads
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##vote: lea
no one visited gravy in crosses ad but im not lying im
botan watxher

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And I picked a horrible time to start FF14
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MysticBrohan posted...

##vote: lea
no one visited gravy in crosses ad but im not lying im
botan watxher

Psst, join me on Scare. Just pretend he claimed watcher
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benjamin3740 posted...

IGCD is town of course. And I think FD is town just because of that comment he made being annoyed with Mzero.

There's my low effort but still probably accurate reads

That FD outage post was so fabricated
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benjamin3740 posted...

I have not been reading in much depth. Spent about a total of 45 minutes of time in total on this game so far because of being busy. However I read enough to know Chris is town. And that was based on day 1, not the Sultan crusade (which only helps his case more)

You dont get credit for third party lynches.
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MysticBrohan posted...

vote: lea
no one visited gravy in crosses ad but im not lying im
botan watxher

Help us lynch Chris instead.
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You do get credit for not doing any of that as scum though!
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what

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What's the case on Scare

I like Blade's day 1 but have no read on Scare himself cause he hasn't done much
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The case is who cares? The day is dominated by power contradictions. Splintering imo is bad and dumb

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Scare may be scum but lynching Chris or Lea is more important right now.

I would concede Lea is marginally safer. I could see a chain of events where only Lea is scum. It's still hard to envision town Chris playing like this for like a dozen reasons but Lea's claim is the completely implausible one right now
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Why do you assume I am scum

What have I done this game at all to make you think this?

You, Lopen, have yet to see any of my scum play
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Who were you gonna say was the other person in Chris if pressed?
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Like I said yesterday, I liked Blade day 1. Scare hasn't said anything to make me reconsider that at this point.

Regarding Chris x Lea I've was getting pretty convinced by Lopen even before Brohan claimed, but now nothing else makes sense.

I've gone over Red's contributions to day 2 and the main points he was presenting were "damn you for ending the day quickly, Chris is bad, we should still Target sultan first, don't end day early". To that end, I think Chris is the better choice today. If there is an extra kill on scum I think it's more likely to be the person who made up an absurd claim rather than than the fake watcher who only seems to have stepped in to make sure Chris didn't get lynched between the two. I think if Chris was desperate enough to ask someone to step in for him it would probably be a vanilla.

So consider my preference to be Chris, but I'm not voting for ANYONE until we hit the 36 how mark. We need to have a proper length day, we've only been hampering and handicapping ourselves by limiting the amount of available information.
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... and while I was typing that Lea changed his story.

I'm not sure that I feel that changes anything.

Lea, is bluffing something you do often? And what do you usually expect to gain by it?
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ScareChan posted...

Why do you assume I am scum

What have I done this game at all to make you think this?

You, Lopen, have yet to see any of my scum play

You actually haven't done anything (which is consistent with your town play I've seen) the read is entirely based on Blade
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Lea making that play as vanilla doesn't even make sense considering she was pushing for Chris's lynch earlier in the day. Let's just lynch em both.
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Lopen, I disagree with you so hard on blade. Scare hasn't done anything of note though, so on that we agree.
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Leanansidhe posted...

Yes. People claim scum when I do usually, like Red in the last game when I "scanned him guilty"

I wasn't in last game so I don't know anything about that. Why don't you give me a brief run down of what happened and why you think day 2 required your intervention.
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I mean Scare has a lot of time to change my mind cause I'm not voting for anyone that isn't Chris or Lea for the next two days but yeah I gotta think some of the tail end of those Ulti votes was scum and Blade looked the worst by far. SBell or Ben are also possibilities. Probably Scare > Ben > SBell out of that lot in terms of suspicion.

On other suspicions if we assume scumteam put two lives down to secure the death of SK that also makes IGCD worth considering due to early hammer on him which seemed utterly pointless-- it's certainly possible as the day progressed Sultan may have done something dire like just openly claim SK or something, which scum may not have wanted to risk with two gambit claims out there.
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Leanansidhe posted...

Lopen posted...

Lea making that play as vanilla doesn't even make sense considering she was pushing for Chris's lynch earlier in the day. Let's just lynch em both.

Yeah, I neverrrrr change my mind in a game of mafia~

Having enough conviction in something that straight up changes your mind, a 180, to fakeclaim as vanilla? Nah. It's too much. Too risky. You move your vote around a lot but I don't see you as the type to do that. You played pretty safe games in your recent games as town.
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Leanansidhe posted...

I was cop and I scanned the player who got shot that night. I was tilted so I said I scanned Red guilty instead.

Technically you didn't even have the guts to do this much. You implied it a bit, then came clean
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I can kind of see how it makes sense to make a big play to take out an SK, but putting 2 lives on a single play seems like a steep price even for that. I also still don't understand how they would knowthat it would be worth it. At best they could have figured out that targeting sultan failed, but if they received a RB message how can they have assumed "untargetable SK" rather than "got stuck by a stay RB". When I hear hoof beats I think 'Horse', not 'Zebra'.

It's just so messy.
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

I can kind of see how it makes sense to make a big play to take out an SK, but putting 2 lives on a single play seems like a steep price even for that. I also still don't understand how they would knowthat it would be worth it. At best they could have figured out that targeting sultan failed, but if they received a RB message how can they have assumed "untargetable SK" rather than "got stuck by a stay RB". When I hear hoof beats I think 'Horse', not 'Zebra'.

It's just so messy.

Here's the thing. Two miscalculations were made to get to that point. The first was Chris expecting his gravy role claim to work. You considered his initial claim as stated would catch an untargetable SK, that's a little too convenient for me.

The second is that if Chris is scum bulletproof (or scumteam gambled that town doctor targeted Chris) this play from Lea is a lot cleaner. Lea expects that Sultan targeted Chris due to single kill, fakes a watch on Chris, if Sultan claims targeting Chris then her claim is a lot harder to call bs on.

It's only because Sultan claimed to target Cirrik, and Corrik claimed bulletproof, that things got really dicey

The simple answer to "were scum wanting to lay down two lives for an SK" is they weren't and it just played out that way.
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