Poll of the Day > Canadian Federal Election Topic

(+) Yeah! (+)

I voted in the advance polls last week, and it was lined out the door. There's going to be very high voter turnout this election, but the country is extremely divided. None of the parties are showing more than even 33% of public support. We are nearly guaranteed to have a minority government, which I don't see as being a bad thing right now.

The pollsters agree that it's going to be very close, with the Liberals and the Conservatives virtually tied at about 31% each, but the pollsters also agree from analysis of riding-by-riding trends that the Liberals are likely to win. The NDP has a relatively high amount of support at around 20%, but are unlikely to win even as many seats as the Bloc Qubcois, despite them only having 6% of public support.

I voted Liberal, as I've taken issue with the populist bullshit and billionaire ass-kissing spewed from Conservatives in the past several years. That being said, I'm predicting a Conservative minority government, despite what pollsters are predicting. There's a lot of hatred towards Trudeau in this country, and even though the source of that hatred is generally idiotic and misplaced (for instance, hating him for his embarrassing India trip, or his cringy feminist ideas), it's still strong enough to have a political impact.

Tomorrow will be very interesting, seeing how this will unfold.
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In dreamland I'd like to see an NDP minority with a liberal coalition. Realistically a Liberal minority coalition with the NDP. I don't really want any candidate to have a majority given the current field.

This election has had a lot of mudslinging (not compared to the American shitshow of course), I hope things get better. But given that Scheer's supporters were chanting "lock him up" probably not. Reflects really poorly on the future of the conservative party.
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Blighboy posted...

In dreamland I'd like to see an NDP minority with a liberal coalition. Realistically a Liberal minority coalition with the NDP. I don't really want any candidate to have a majority given the current field.

This election has had a lot of mudslinging (not compared to the American shitshow of course), I hope things get better. But given that Scheer's supporters were chanting "lock him up" probably not. Reflects really poorly on the future of the conservative party.

I agree with most of that.

I found it very interesting that Singh said last week that if the Conservatives get a minority, the NDP will form a coalition with the Liberals to block that from happening. He backpedalled the next day, probably due to advice from his campaign managers, but we now know where he stands.

It's pretty safe to say that Andrew Scheer will not be prime minister, but I could be wrong. I still think the outcome will be a Conservative minority, but what happens after that is unknown.
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Cons are the Libs with a different name. And now NDP is talking about joining the Liberals if the Cons get in after Maxime broke off which will take votes from the Cons. Its going to be a mess.
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zebatov posted...

Cons are the Libs with a different name. And now NDP is talking about joining the Liberals if the Cons get in after Maxime broke off which will take votes from the Cons. Its going to be a mess.

The Naz-, err, I mean, People's Party, is only polling at like 2% right now, lmao. Bernier is unlikely to even win his own seat. They're not really taking any notable amount of votes from anyone, especially given that most of their supporters live in ridings that have always gone Conservative.
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I'm liking the sound of a minority, regardless of who takes the reins. Really, none of the parties are inspiring enough confidence right now for me to want anyone to have majority-level power. I'm probably going to be voting NDP, though I need to check local polling data to figure out if voting Liberal instead will help keep the Cons out (since I'm really not a fan of how Scheer's been approaching this, even if he's proving to be a different sort of awful than Harper was).
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I know. Its actually sad since theyre the only ones who seem to care about Canada and Canadians. If they ran years before all of this (erroneously-named) nazi, racist garb they probably would have had a better shot. Since Trump has done what he did you cant say reduce immigration without people linking that to race in their minds. I usually cast a vote based on who I want in, not who I want to keep out. The latter landed us with Trudeau.
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This really does feel like a mainstream remake of the Ontario provincial election, with libs shitting the bed and Cons running a total non campaign of "red sign bad". It's super disheartening.
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faramir77 posted...

zebatov posted...

Cons are the Libs with a different name. And now NDP is talking about joining the Liberals if the Cons get in after Maxime broke off which will take votes from the Cons. Its going to be a mess.

The Naz-, err, I mean, People's Party, is only polling at like 2% right now, lmao. Bernier is unlikely to even win his own seat. They're not really taking any notable amount of votes from anyone, especially given that most of their supporters live in ridings that have always gone Conservative.

PPC is kind of a joke that's been shot down every time they've tried to rear their ugly heads. I especially like that they include "protecting Canadian culture" in their platform without acknowledging that the only credible threat to Canada's cultural identity is American culture. Somehow I don't think any of the party's supporters would actually like to see an expansion of CBC's funding, stronger Canadian Content rules for networks, or restrictions on how much American media can be imported.

Blighboy posted...

This really does feel like a mainstream remake of the Ontario provincial election, with libs shitting the bed and Cons running a total non campaign of "red sign bad". It's super disheartening.

Especially where none of that should be fooling anyone when you look at what a complete mess Ford has made of Ontario.
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Adjl we gotta team up and paint london orange it will be PotDs greatest crossover
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Blighboy posted...

Adjl we gotta team up and paint london orange it will be PotDs greatest crossover

I'm honestly surprised that London (at least north-centre, which is my riding) voted in the Liberals last time, given the overall political feel of so much of the city. I would have expected the conservatives to have a pretty solid hold on it.
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adjl posted...

Especially where none of that should be fooling anyone when you look at what a complete mess Ford has made of Ontario.

Baffles me that anyone thought voting for him was a good idea. And terrifies me.

The brother of a corrupt crack smoking politician runs on literally no election platform and then wins a majority. Yeah, the Ontario liberals sucked, but that election should have been an NDP sweep.
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my riding is pretty deep red so thats probably what Im voting. my pie in the sky would be a liberal-NDP coalition at this point but its probably better if it doesnt even come to that
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faramir77 posted...

adjl posted...

Especially where none of that should be fooling anyone when you look at what a complete mess Ford has made of Ontario.

Baffles me that anyone thought voting for him was a good idea. And terrifies me.

The brother of a corrupt crack smoking politician runs on literally no election platform and then wins a majority. Yeah, the Ontario liberals sucked, but that election should have been an NDP sweep.

If you look into NDPs history youll understand why it wasnt. Im actually surprised they got in in BC again. Pretty sure its going Liberal again next election. The sad thing is they dont even really have to try. Theres basically no competition because the people vote like drones.
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Make sure you all vote if you haven't already

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snidely whiplash
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It's funny, I'm voting Conservative, but if the NDP had agreed to Ranked Ballot I would be voting something like

1 Green
2 NDP
3 PPC
4 Liberal
5 Conservative

Like literally anyone but the core left/right parties. Anyone.
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I have never been so disillusioned with politics. I literally hate all the options. Normally I vote either Conservative or Liberal, but I really really dislike both party leaders.

I'm also in the Ralph Goodale riding, and that boy has been in power there for nearly as long as I've been alive, so I don't expect that will change.

Kungfu Kenobi posted...

It's funny, I'm voting Conservative, but if the NDP had agreed to Ranked Ballot I would be voting something like

I'm convinced that if Ranked Ballot became a thing, the Liberals would never lose an election ever again. Anyone who voted conservative would have Liberals as their second, and most people who voted NDP would have liberals as their second.
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Dynalo posted...

I'm convinced that if Ranked Ballot became a thing, the Liberals would never lose an election ever again. Anyone who voted conservative would have Liberals as their second, and most people who voted NDP would have liberals as their second.

And this is why the Liberals want a ranked ballot. Conservatives like FPTP because it means they don't need anything close to a majority vote to take power (conservatives generally being a minority in Canada), and NDP wants proportional representation because it's the most plausible way for them to end up with any power at all. I'm personally in favour of proportional representation for the sake of giving voices to more diverse viewpoints in parliament, but I can definitely see why the other parties don't like it.
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At first blush, I think I'd want proportional representation, but my biggest fear is that if that is implemented, nothing would ever get done in parliament because you would quite often end up with the house very split. Even in landslide wins, it's unusual for a party to get more than 50% of the vote.

In the 2015 election the liberals won a majority with only 39% of the vote. Imagine how difficult it would have been for them to implement any of their promises if the 32% of conservative seats were able to stonewall them? It would effectively force us into a two party system as there's just no way to get anything done if all the parties have different ideas and on what action should be taken.

I understand why the liberals gave up on that promise. No voting option is without downsides.
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Dynalo posted...

I have never been so disillusioned with politics. I literally hate all the options.

I ultimately could not bring myself to go to a polling station. There's still time as of this writing, and it's just a short walk away, but I'm not likely to.

I'm convinced that if Ranked Ballot became a thing, the Liberals would never lose an election ever again.

At first, yes. However it would give the other parties a chance to play and win at a game that right now can only be played by the conservatives. It would give the Liberals an advantage only in the short term.

Anyone who voted conservative would have Liberals as their second, and most people who voted NDP would have liberals as their second.

There are plenty that would put both PPC and Conservatives ahead of liberals, and a growing contingent of politically homeless Liberals like myself that would vote PPC ahead of Liberal.

adjl posted...

I'm personally in favour of proportional representation for the sake of giving voices to more diverse viewpoints in parliament, but I can definitely see why the other parties don't like it.

I'm coming around on PropRep. Then again I was never married to Ranked Ballot, and would take either over our current system in a heartbeat.
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I'm in one of those annoying toss-up ridings that makes the FPTP system so infuriating. I can't vote for who I want, because I have to vote strategically to make sure the guys I *don't* want don't get in via vote splitting.
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Trudeau to keep the conservative cucks crying.
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I'm for anybody except Trudeau.
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a ranked ballot sounds like an incredibly bad idea
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Krazy_Kirby posted...

a ranked ballot sounds like an incredibly bad idea

Conceptually, it's not unreasonable. You end up with a result that's not necessarily everyone's first choice, but is at least most people's second or third choice, which aligns well with the fundamental idea of democracy (that is, a government that reflects what the majority wants). It runs into problems, though, when you have relatively few choices (I think we've got a grand total of 7 now if we count the bloc and the communist party), especially when 2-3 of those choices are consistently expected to be at least second-favourite for most people. It's better with larger ballots and more evenly-matched candidates.

The entire liberal ideology is "we support whatever most Canadians support" it's not unreasonable that they usually win, barring major ideological splits in the populace.

If they lose due to vote splitting though it's 100% on them at this point.

Zeus posted...

I'm for anybody except Trudeau.

You're for anyone except the left leaning centrist?
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Can I vote for a moose?

They all suck but the Liberals are the worst. Done nothing for Canada but massively increase our national debt. Also Justin Trudeau is the worst face of Canada maybe ever. I hope Conservatives take it I guess... meh

Kungfu Kenobi posted...

It's funny, I'm voting Conservative, but if the NDP had agreed to Ranked Ballot I would be voting something like

1 Green
2 NDP
3 PPC
4 Liberal
5 Conservative

Like literally anyone but the core left/right parties. Anyone.

I'm actually legitimately curious as to what confluence of factors would make you vote for your least-wanted party, because I can't even imagine a hypothetical scenario where that would be the right move to make.

Krazy_Kirby posted...

a ranked ballot sounds like an incredibly bad idea

Why? What's wrong with it?

It ensures that votes aren't wasted. Hell, I'd love a ranked ballot in my current predicament.

My party of choice is currently running fourth in my riding. I'm not going to vote for them, because a) My vote would be a waste, given that they have no reasonable path to victory in this riding and b) A party I really don't want to get in is competitive here. In a ranked ballot world, I could put my first-choice party at the top of my ballot and, if no one earns an outright majority in the first-choice counting, my votes could be rolled into my second- or third-choice candidates without me worrying about wasting my vote.
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Blighboy posted...

Zeus posted...

I'm for anybody except Trudeau.

You're for anyone except the left leaning centrist?

blown out
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Polls close here in Alberta in 3 minutes. The polls in BC close last, in just over 30 minutes.

Atlantic Canada ended polls hours ago, and has gone very Liberal apparently, but that doesn't mean much.
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CTV News has declared a Liberal win tonight. I'm happy to have been wrong on my prediction.
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Yay another 4 cringy years in Canada. Billions more in debt and no trade deals with other countries. Gas will probs hit $2 a liter soon.

xjayguyx posted...

Yay another 4 cringy years in Canada. Billions more in debt and no trade deals with other countries. Gas will probs hit $2 a liter soon.

Gas was $1.30 a decade ago under Harper, wtf are you talking about.
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I was feeling like a lib minority was going to happen earlier today.

Minority governments are terrible, doesnt matter who is in power as nothing happens 99% of the time.
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Ogurisama posted...

I was feeling like a lib minority was going to happen earlier today.

Minority governments are terrible, doesnt matter who is in power as nothing happens 99% of the time.

To be honest, I think we need this. A Liberal minority isn't as ineffective as a Conservative minority given that they generally get support from the NDP and even sometimes the BQ.
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Dynalo posted...

I'm also in the Ralph Goodale riding, and that boy has been in power there for nearly as long as I've been alive, so I don't expect that will change.

Looks like you might be wrong. He's trailing considerably to the Conservatives right now. He was first elected when Trudeau Sr. was in. That's kind of sad to see a legacy like that end, but that's democracy.
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faramir77 posted...

xjayguyx posted...

Yay another 4 cringy years in Canada. Billions more in debt and no trade deals with other countries. Gas will probs hit $2 a liter soon.

Gas was $1.30 a decade ago under Harper, wtf are you talking about.

Looking at oil prices I can see why it was that much then.. oil prices are much lower today and price of gas is not lower. So wtf I'm talking about is a useless carbon tax ( or tax rip off to off set crazy Liberal spending ).

faramir77 posted...

xjayguyx posted...

Yay another 4 cringy years in Canada. Billions more in debt and no trade deals with other countries. Gas will probs hit $2 a liter soon.

Gas was $1.30 a decade ago under Harper, wtf are you talking about.

Oh and Harper.. Harper ummm Harper Harper Harper... hmm aaaa umm Harper. You and Trudeau would have lots of fun together ;)

I am surprised the Bloc has gotten more seats this time around
I though their party was dying
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xjayguyx posted...

a useless carbon tax

People have won Nobel prizes for demonstrating that carbon taxes work. Have you won a Nobel prize for stating that they don't?
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adjl posted...

xjayguyx posted...

a useless carbon tax

People have won Nobel prizes for demonstrating that carbon taxes work. Have you won a Nobel prize for stating that they don't?

It's useless because all the money is going to pay off stupid spending. If it was actually used for things to cut down on carbon then it wouldn't be useless.

Dynalo posted...

I'm also in the Ralph Goodale riding, and that boy has been in power there for nearly as long as I've been alive, so I don't expect that will change.

Well I'll be damned. He lost.
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It's looking like the Conservatives may have actually won the popular vote. This is like a reverse Donald Trump situation.
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xjayguyx posted...

Yay another 4 cringy years in Canada.

minorities don't typically last more than 2 years
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Well, this is about the best result possible given the possibilities, really.

I wonder where all the Cons are who spent the last two years telling me that Trudeau was toast as of this election.

TheWitchMorgana posted...

xjayguyx posted...

Yay another 4 cringy years in Canada.

minorities don't typically last more than 2 years

I could see this one being more stable than most.

Politics has changed since we last saw a Liberal minority. The NDP have abandoned a lot of their Democratic-Socialist roots and moved more towards the centre, while left-wing views against the Conservatives have hardened. The Liberals in the Martin era were still reeling from the sponsorship scandal and all but collapsed over the following two elections, giving the NDP an opportunity to eat their lunch.

In the current environment, I don't think the NDP voters would look kindly on them collapsing a Liberal government if it led to the Conservatives taking their place. The current Liberals are not as unstable as their early-2000s counterparts and unless that changes, I think the Liberals will have a solid government, albeit one where they will need to make concessions to either the NDP or the Bloc (my money's on the former) to stay intact.
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TheWitchMorgana posted...

xjayguyx posted...

Yay another 4 cringy years in Canada.

minorities don't typically last more than 2 years

Not true, this is a strong minority. The Conservatives in 2006-2008 only lasted 2 years because they were nowhere near a majority.

A strong minority government usually holds 3 to the full 4 years.
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xjayguyx posted...

adjl posted...

xjayguyx posted...

a useless carbon tax

People have won Nobel prizes for demonstrating that carbon taxes work. Have you won a Nobel prize for stating that they don't?

It's useless because all the money is going to pay off stupid spending. If it was actually used for things to cut down on carbon then it wouldn't be useless.

So no, you haven't won a Nobel prize for stating that they don't. In that case I'm going to accept the research of Nobel laureates over whatever it is you're talking about.
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faramir77 posted...

xjayguyx posted...

Yay another 4 cringy years in Canada. Billions more in debt and no trade deals with other countries. Gas will probs hit $2 a liter soon.

Gas was $1.30 a decade ago under Harper, wtf are you talking about.

Lol in Vancouver maybe. The guys who constantly fight a resource we have an abundance of.

If they didnt charge GST on top of the carbon tax more people might want to side with these laureates. Most likely bought and paid for. Governments have a history of misspending money. Liberals borrowing from ICBC followed by increasing insurance premiums ring a bell?

http://www.vancouversun.com/touch/news/metro/government+grabbing+cash+from+icbc+hydro+they+raise+rates/9527548/story.html
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