Board 8 > [VGMC] Officially announcing VGMCXIV: A Bracket Reborn -- nominations 3/13

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azuarc
03/01/20 11:01:25 AM
#1:


I have another topic floating that was supposed to serve as a prelude, but I want to lay down an actual topic telling everyone to get freaking ready already. My intended start got delayed (it was going to be this weekend) by a combination of realizing the script was broken and some RL things, but I also don't want to drop nominations without warning. So this is your warning. Please get the word out to anyone off-site who may be interested. Make sure you mention the waiting period for new accounts to be able to post on the forums.

VGMC will be opening nominations on Friday, 3/13, later in the day.

The plan at this present moment is to keep nominations running through the following Sunday, for a total of 9 days.

I'd say topic over, but there are two important matters to discuss now and one additional thing I'm toying with.

.

Discussion bit #1 - rule changes

I proposed three rule changes for this year in the other topic. I'm going to go through with two of them.

  1. Any song earning at least 5 votes during nominations, prior to the end of the one-week mark in nominations, will be LOCKED. It will be guaranteed to enter the bracket, and you may not reclaim your supports from it. As such, I strongly recommend not blowing your doubles early.
  2. The bracket will feature 192 songs again, but with a structure change. Rather than byes, each division will contain 12 songs, and the final four-pack will be a reserved slot for one of the losers of the first two rounds to slip back into the contest. This will help soften the impact of tragic bracket placement. (There will be a weighted preference "play-in" among the 9 songs that lost in R1 and R2, and the winner will be positioned in the neighboring division's open slot.)
  3. I will *NOT* be admitting retirees to this year's bracket. Comments for that suggestion were lukewarm at best, and I'm not sure that there's a strong upside. If there's an outpouring of support for this idea here, at the 11th hour, I won't take it off the table.
In any other regard, you should assume the contest will function the same as other years.

.

Discussion bit #2 - looking for volunteers

I am proposing that this year be the last that I run VGMC before turning over the contest to fresh blood. Five years is a good haul, and although the contest has flourished under my watch, I honestly can't take credit for that. However, I'm definitely suffering from some general fatigue and would be happy to delegate some or all of the responsibilities of the contest. At the very least, I will be taking a trip in May where I will be gone for 10 days, and although wi-fi is a thing, I'd still rather know that someone else will be handling those matches. Therefore I am looking for people to handle some or all of the following tasks related to the contest.

  • Bracket design (2 people) -- I will handle nominations myself. That's the fun part of the contest, TBH. But once noms end, that's when the real work begins. I have no qualms about creating the bracket, and I think Mycro was a great foil for me last year, but if anybody (Mycro included) wants to try their hand at the bracket, I'm willing to let someone else give it a shot. If you volunteer for this, recognize that you're committing to a task that must happen immediately after nominations and will take up a solid chunk of your time that week.
  • Playlist maintenance (1 person) -- I've kept up a couple playlists in the past. One during nominations to track all the songs that were proposed to the nom thread, and a second to easily give people a chance to listen to forthcoming matches without having to click individual links. Last year (and maybe the year before?) NFUN handled the first of those tasks, for which I'm grateful.
  • Topic posting (at least 1 person) -- One of the things that's awkward about running the contest is knowing that, like clockwork, you need to post the topic at the same time each day. After posting every day for 90+ days at a fairly awkward point in my evening, it gets very tiresome. This task should either be handled by one person who feels very confident they will be reliable or simply handled by committee. It's mostly an easy copy-paste job, with the optional creative freedom to post a poll. The topic creator should also try to remember to close the thread when the match ends. I might turn thread posting over to Discord and just rely on someone to call out in #vgmusic before posting shortly before the match topic is scheduled to go up, especially if a number of people offer to help in this regard.
  • Vote counting (at least 2 people) -- This is the one task I have consistently relied on people for in the past already. Although I've done all the official vote counting, which is easier to screw up than you might think, I have been very fortunate that there have been several people (especially xp) willing to look over my shoulder and confirm the results. Ideally, the vote counter also needs to announce the winner in the results thread and mark this in the appropriate parts of the spreadsheet.
  • Spreadsheet/bracket updating (1 person) -- This is probably a task I should simply handle myself. It's probably best not to have too many people with their paws in the spreadsheet, and Bracketmaker only allows one person to input results anyhow. Still, I'm throwing this out there if anyone feels especially inclined. It is not required to attend to this job on a daily basis.
  • Fun extras -- This isn't a position so much as an acknowledgement that several people have done stats analysis and other fun things for the contest such as compatibility rankings, evaluating the retirees, etc. I'm putting this bullet point here simply to recognize those folks and that I have appreciated their efforts.
If anyone is interested in helping in any capacity, please send me a message or post here. Obviously, there's also a strong opportunity here to audition for future VGMC host if that's of interest to you.

.

And one last pre-contest thing...

I'm considering running a guessing game on the night of the 13th. It would effectively be a crowdsourced listening party. I would want to start this game as early in the night as possible so that ideally I would open nominations immediately after it ends. I'd like everyone to send me one song they're thinking of nominating this year and would like everyone to get some exposure to. It does not have to be a new or unique song. But I figure, if I can't follow through with my ranking topic, I can at least do this much to get the hype train rolling for songs people are excited about. (And yes, just 5 non-support nominations on day 1, please.)

.

I think that's everything. I hope everyone's psyched for the contest!
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azuarc
03/01/20 11:08:53 AM
#2:


For anyone confused about the bracket structure, each division will look like this: https://imgur.com/fqpi0s8

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xp1337
03/01/20 11:40:15 AM
#3:


azuarc posted...
The bracket will feature 192 songs again, but with a structure change. Rather than byes, each division will contain 12 songs, and the final four-pack will be a reserved slot for one of the losers of the first two rounds to slip back into the contest. This will help soften the impact of tragic bracket placement. (There will be a weighted preference "play-in" among the 9 songs that lost in R1 and R2, and the winner will be positioned in the neighboring division's open slot.)
I understand how the bracket would look under this structure but I'm more concerned on the mechanics of the "play-in." How exactly is that going to work or is it still a WIP?

azuarc posted...
Vote counting (at least 2 people) -- This is the one task I have consistently relied on people for in the past already. Although I've done all the official vote counting, which is easier to screw up than you might think, I have been very fortunate that there have been several people (especially xp) willing to look over my shoulder and confirm the results. Ideally, the vote counter also needs to announce the winner in the results thread and mark this in the appropriate parts of the spreadsheet.

I always planned to continue that role the way I have been so yeah.

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pyresword
03/01/20 11:58:08 AM
#4:


Tag
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Toxtricity
03/01/20 12:10:00 PM
#5:


azuarc posted...
Bracket design (2 people) -- I will handle nominations myself. That's the fun part of the contest, TBH. But once noms end, that's when the real work begins. I have no qualms about creating the bracket, and I think Mycro was a great foil for me last year, but if anybody (Mycro included) wants to try their hand at the bracket, I'm willing to let someone else give it a shot. If you volunteer for this, recognize that you're committing to a task that must happen immediately after nominations and will take up a solid chunk of your time that week.
I'll totally do this again. Like I said last year, it doesn't make much of a difference in time commitment for me because for the past many years I've done my personal ranking of every song in the contest so I'm listening to them all before it starts anyways. plus i just had a lot of fun assembling it last time and have adequate sense of strength prediction / song memory for the process to go smoothly-ish and fairly quick

azuarc posted...
Fun extras -- This isn't a position so much as an acknowledgement that several people have done stats analysis and other fun things for the contest such as compatibility rankings, evaluating the retirees, etc. I'm putting this bullet point here simply to recognize those folks and that I have appreciated their efforts.
dire said he doesn't want to run the compatibility stats spreadsheet anymore but I'd be very up for maintaining that (if only because last year I was obsessed with that sheet and constantly refreshing). If he could tutorial me on how to set it up and use it I'd be up for inputting stuff in as the contest goes!

Willing to contribute in other ways to the contest as well if not enough people are interested in the other things but these are the things i'm immediately volunteering to help with anyways!

-Mycro

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azuarc
03/01/20 12:44:48 PM
#6:


xp1337 posted...
I understand how the bracket would look under this structure but I'm more concerned on the mechanics of the "play-in." How exactly is that going to work or is it still a WIP?

My plan was to give people six points they could distribute among the songs as they liked, with a max of 3 on any one song. So effectively they get a +3, +2, +1, but they can spread it around a little differently if they prefer. The play-in, understandably, would occupy a day to itself since there's 9 songs involved.

I don't want to think about how I'm going to resolve the matter when there is, inevitably, a three-way tie.

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pyresword
03/01/20 12:58:48 PM
#7:


azuarc posted...
I don't want to think about how I'm going to resolve the matter when there is, inevitably, a three-way tie.

Simplest way seems to be a tiebreaker between those three where everyone gets 1 vote. If there's a 2-way tie in the tiebreaker, re-run a head-to-head. If there's a 3-way tie, either re-run in an attempt to tiebreak or disqualify the host vote and then run a 2-way runoff?
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NFUN
03/01/20 12:59:15 PM
#8:


azuarc posted...
If there's an outpouring of support for this idea here, at the 11th hour, I won't take it off the table.

Finally... OneShot in VGMC confirmed

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Bossman_Coolguy
03/01/20 1:01:43 PM
#9:


is granado esparda retired yet?

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azuarc
03/01/20 1:05:59 PM
#10:


two songs from it are.

Total stats sheet, including retiree list, for those keeping score at home: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K1XdLWiUKB2kX99qYBgnRbLU_sCz4dvZSByKKJHCT6o/edit#gid=0

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PIayer_0
03/01/20 1:12:23 PM
#11:


VGMC Queli->XIV

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azuarc
03/01/20 1:19:57 PM
#12:


but there are no excess crayons here.

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SuperNiceDog
03/01/20 1:25:03 PM
#13:


yay it's back!

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dowolf
03/01/20 1:28:08 PM
#14:


i mean, now that we're in the glorious timeline where EXSPHERE_NOSURGE surges to victory...

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Zigzagoon
03/01/20 1:29:03 PM
#15:


will i have a song make the contest this year?

all that and more...!

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GameBopAdv
03/01/20 2:08:19 PM
#16:


I mentioned this last topic but I still think that there should be a system for picking which songs get in the contest from the last nomination tier, based on the disadvantaged nominators & supporters instead of pure random selection.
I still haven't really finalized thinking about -exactly- what that system should be (feel free to suggest something if you think you have a better idea) but I was sort of thinking like going in order:
  • Any songs with a supporter with no other supported songs in
  • Any songs with a nominator with no other nominated songs in
  • Any songs with a supporter with 1 or 2 other supported songs in
  • Any songs with a nominator with only one other nominated song in
  • And then from here, taking the total number of supports in from everyone supporting the songs (if doubles are involved, those users' support counts are counted twice), going in order from the lowest up
Something like that, hopefully that's explained alright. It makes sense to me and I'll be totally willing to do the work for this system if it can be used.

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azuarc
03/01/20 2:13:27 PM
#17:


GBA, you're talking strictly about tiebreakers, as opposed to being pure random, right?

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GameBopAdv
03/01/20 2:41:41 PM
#18:


I'm talking about the part of the last contest where during the nominations phase, the group of songs with 4 supports from 3 users had a random selection of which songs were getting in, and I'm proposing that instead of being random we go with a system that looks for songs from that tier from those with the fewest in, so there's less chances of feeling totally screwed over by RNG at that part, and more potential for variety from smaller viewpoints.

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Mac Arrowny
03/01/20 3:22:28 PM
#19:


I like GBA's idea.
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KCF0107
03/01/20 3:27:47 PM
#20:


I am like 0-8 all-time in the RNG last-song-in setup, so I am up for anything that gives me a better chance.
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banshiryuu
03/01/20 3:57:48 PM
#21:


Hype!!!! Im down for helping out with literally any section of the contest; after BOST5 I definitely have an interest in bracket design but I also feel like me and Mycro have too similar a taste to make a well-balanced bracket together possibly, assuming of course Mycro will return for that role as well. Probably could, but yeah Im listening to everything anyway so might as well lmao

As for hosting future VGMCs... thats an idea for me that is certainly on the table. Its definitely something that now I know I would have fun doing, the question is just if the time it would happen would be right for me.
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UF8
03/01/20 8:35:19 PM
#22:


I suppose i have a lot of spare time and care somewhat more strongly about various things still being handed unkind placements last contest too so

def mark me down as a person of interest for assisting in bracket design

i'm not reliable at posting exactly on the hour but if others aren't free, i could consistently manage it within the first couple of mins. it's generally not at a bad time for me after all. i also check votecounts on my own regularly too so

as for other stuff involving spreadsheets or playlists and all, there are others simply a lot more suited than me
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NFUN
03/01/20 8:37:30 PM
#23:


i can make the playlist again idrc

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PIayer_0
03/02/20 11:06:26 AM
#24:


The mechanics of new rule 2 are the only thing I'm not sure about. Any song that gets saved does not go back into the same division it got knocked out of, right? If it already lost there, there's no reason to believe it would make it out given a second chance, but the idea is that a retiree-worthy song that got stuck with a future semifinalist might be able to make it out from a different division.

Also, you may want to tighten the requirements for new rule 1. There were already 155 songs with 5+ votes at the end of last year's noms, and it might be a self-fulfilling prophecy where everyone now guns for the 5-vote threshold and you end up with more than 192 songs that are "guaranteed" a spot, especially with the likely influx of new people this year.

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azuarc
03/02/20 12:08:51 PM
#25:


They go into a different division, correct, for precisely the reason you laid out. Maybe, for example, the final song could have retired if it hadn't drawn exsphere in R2.

For the second point, what do you suggest? A cap on locked songs? I mean sure, there were a ton of 5s by the end, but most of that happened in the last 48 hours as people consolidated. So by old dynamics, that wouldn't have much bearing. It only remains to be seen if nominators will flock to the prospect of guaranteeing their songs get in. I think we'll see a bunch of doubles dropped on 4s as the deadline looms, as well as a few overly reactionary folks who will do so at the earliest opportunity. (Nominations are very much a game of patience, and even sometimes playing chicken.)

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Mac Arrowny
03/02/20 1:35:03 PM
#26:


PIayer_0 posted...
Also, you may want to tighten the requirements for new rule 1. There were already 155 songs with 5+ votes at the end of last year's noms, and it might be a self-fulfilling prophecy where everyone now guns for the 5-vote threshold and you end up with more than 192 songs that are "guaranteed" a spot, especially with the likely influx of new people this year.


That would just mean nominations ending a bit early, which wouldn't be terrible
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Haste_2
03/02/20 10:34:03 PM
#27:


Everything sounds good to me! Except for..,.

There will be a weighted preference "play-in" among the 9 songs that lost in R1 and R2, and the winner will be positioned in the neighboring division's open slot.)

I'd prefer moving them over to the neighboring bracket instead, because we could theoretically still have a few unwanted rematches if they're just placed in the neighboring division. (unless I missed something here)

As for assistance, I would be willing to help with anything. It looks like you've got enough help already, though. I think I'm going to impose the weekly playlist (that I mentioned before) for this contest, though... it's only post a week, so hopefully nobody would object. Again, the idea is to provide the most convenient, compact playlists possible for listeners in hopes they listen through the music a few times prior to the actual matches. Thank you NFUN for taking care of the general playlist.

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PIayer_0
03/02/20 11:04:13 PM
#28:


Yeah, I can't really say I'm someone with good intuition for how the cutoff line might move towards the end. I like the early locks because you get the peace of mind of aiming for a numerical threshold rather than a moving cutoff, and it would kinda suck to find out after that you still ended up on the bubble and have to roll RNG.

I think the nicest way to do it would be a guarantee if you get 4-5 votes by the Tuesday or Wednesday, rather than Friday. It seems much less likely that 192 songs would be eligible by then and the threshold stays low enough that people don't feel like they're locking in unnecessary supports just for early entry.

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azuarc
03/02/20 11:42:36 PM
#29:


Haste_2 posted...
I'd prefer moving them over to the neighboring bracket instead, because we could theoretically still have a few unwanted rematches if they're just placed in the neighboring division. (unless I missed something here)

I mean, that's fair, too. The emphasis here is that they can't stay where they were.

PIayer_0 posted...
I think the nicest way to do it would be a guarantee if you get 4-5 votes by the Tuesday or Wednesday, rather than Friday. It seems much less likely that 192 songs would be eligible by then and the threshold stays low enough that people don't feel like they're locking in unnecessary supports just for early entry.

Reasonable. I guess the question is, at what point does the endgame madness normally begin? Because wherever that would be, I want to set the deadline right before it.

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PIayer_0
03/03/20 12:10:08 AM
#30:


If early locks weren't a thing, I feel like you were right the first time with Friday? It just depends on how cautious you wanna be with this new deadline affecting how early people go into endgame mode; I don't want you to have to go back on your guarantee if 2 fewer days still provides enough time for people to figure out their supports and push 192+ songs past the 5-vote requirement.

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azuarc
03/03/20 8:57:25 AM
#31:


I'm reasonably confident that Friday will work for two reasons.

  1. Maybe 155 songs hit 5+ last year, but 48 hours before close, I doubt that number was even 55.
  2. 5 votes is a pretty high threshold. Even if I didn't explicitly state that a 5 was guaranteed, all the 5s from last year still made the bracket. Unless we have a much higher turnout this year, it's hard to imagine 5 wouldn't be safe anyway.
Locking sounds like it could have an impact on voting trends, and indeed some people might act a little differently if that security and peace of mind is worth it to them, but ultimately anyone who stops and considers should recognize that this really doesn't change much, if anything at all. It's an acknowledgement that some people are sore about watching the rising waters and feeling like they have to play the game alongside everyone else, when they'd rather just fire and forget. I'm giving them an out.

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TheArkOfTurus
03/03/20 2:11:46 PM
#32:


What was the limit on nominations from one game, again? Three?

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Mac Arrowny
03/03/20 2:53:56 PM
#33:


Yeah, Friday should be fine. Could even do Saturday, probably.
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xp1337
03/03/20 3:36:46 PM
#34:


TheArkOfTurus posted...
What was the limit on nominations from one game, again? Three?
Traditionally it's been 2/game, 5/series but I forget if that was changed in the last contest. I doubt it but I'm only around 90% sure.

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PIayer_0
03/05/20 11:02:23 AM
#35:


azuarc posted...
I'm reasonably confident that Friday will work for two reasons.

1. Maybe 155 songs hit 5+ last year, but 48 hours before close, I doubt that number was even 55.
2. 5 votes is a pretty high threshold. Even if I didn't explicitly state that a 5 was guaranteed, all the 5s from last year still made the bracket. Unless we have a much higher turnout this year, it's hard to imagine 5 wouldn't be safe anyway.
Locking sounds like it could have an impact on voting trends, and indeed some people might act a little differently if that security and peace of mind is worth it to them, but ultimately anyone who stops and considers should recognize that this really doesn't change much, if anything at all. It's an acknowledgement that some people are sore about watching the rising waters and feeling like they have to play the game alongside everyone else, when they'd rather just fire and forget. I'm giving them an out.
Okay, I'd say you're justified in setting it for Friday then. Just gotta monitor how the line moves throughout the week!

Soooo the bigger thing I actually wanted to comment on was how songs that get saved return into a different retirement division. Being able to give songs a second chance is really great, but I'm iffy on the fact that they get to knock someone else out on their way to potential retirement. It wouldn't feel great to be a strong retirement candidate in your three-pack only to get eliminated by a new challenger who dropped in from the division next door, then be denied a second chance yourself (as amusingly WWE-esque as that scenario would be). I feel like if you get a second chance, the only songs you should be able to knock out are other second chancers, not songs who rightfully made it to round 3 or 4 in their division.

Why not something like 12 divisions of 16 to decide the main group of retirees, then place the 12 R4 losers (or 36 R3+R4 losers) into their own bracket to decide the remaining 4 retirements? This has the added benefit of giving R4 losers another shot at retirement, whom I'd feel are more deserving than the R1 or R2 losers.

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Haste_2
03/05/20 12:10:03 PM
#36:


That's a brilliant idea!

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azuarc
03/05/20 12:41:08 PM
#37:


I'm listening. It's an interesting idea. It runs counter to what I was going for, but I'll listen to input.

My purpose is creating this variant was to give songs that got a really tragic bracket placement a chance to be heard...y'know, twice? Literally every song will play twice this way, and I can only see that as a good thing. A big reason we run guessing games and play the whole song is to double as a listening party. Nominations are the best part of the contest for several reasons, but one is because we get to listen to a ton of new stuff. It's easy to overlook or underappreciate something in the literally hundreds of songs trotted out there for the bracket.

It wouldn't feel great to be a strong retirement candidate in your three-pack only to get eliminated by a new challenger who dropped in from the division next door

I feel like this is a bit of a non-issue. Sure, it feels bad, but are you telling me this scenario is unfair? The song that lost in R1/R2 and won their nine-way must have also been a strong retirement candidate, too. As far as I see it, that song has proven itself more than a song that merely was the best of four songs. And since, in general, bracket design is intended to put the top 25% of the bracket in separate four-packs, that means that if I or Mycro or whoever thought you met that description, there's a good chance you didn't face stiff competition to get there. Where this idea shines is when we miss the mark. VGMC12 literally had two 16 seeds retiring. Last year, The Final Song, a previous retirement round competitor, lost in its first match. And what about the songs that simply get a really bad placement each year because of low confidence but might have actually done okay? 23 songs on our retiree list also lost in round 1 in a previous year. Two of them, Meaning of Birth and Seymour Battle, lost twice.

I feel like there are a ton of scenarios this patches over. Either bracket placement is done semi-randomly and you end up with matches like Baba Yetu vs MGS2 main theme in round 2 (hi VGMC1) or you have someone placing them intelligently, and you're subject to their biases. I certainly feel the second is better than the first, but even with a second person involved in bracket design as I used Mycro last year, there's still going to be mismatches. Two years ago, I purposely gave Besaid a bad placement (because something had to go there). Last year, I intended to redeem it a little, but Mycro decided it wouldn't do well and it still got a poor position. I feel bad for the people who nominated it two years in a row, got it into the bracket, and then received that kind of treatment. I seriously doubt that it would ever retire, but doesn't it deserve better than to run into a buzzsaw each year?

So basically, I'm trying to make sure that every song gets an opportunity. An opportunity to be heard. An opportunity to win a match. An opportunity to not simply be fed to the eventual champion.

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azuarc
03/05/20 12:43:33 PM
#38:


Also, I have a total of three people who have given me a song for next Friday. I don't have to run something that night. It certainly makes it easier for me to say "the topic will be up at 8:00" or whatever. But if you'd like to be included, please PM me your pick.

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pyresword
03/05/20 12:58:37 PM
#39:


Totally skipped over that part of the opening post I will send something tonight.
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xp1337
03/05/20 3:00:14 PM
#40:


azuarc posted...
I feel like this is a bit of a non-issue. Sure, it feels bad, but are you telling me this scenario is unfair?
i will tell you if it is unfair after the results come in on the objectively fair "what did this do to songs i like" metric.

To be serious though I don't think there's anything wrong with azuarc's proposal. If anything, in theory, sending all the second-chance songs to their own division would make for a pretty nuts division. Perhaps that's "fair" in the sense that it's a second-chance-only region so they're all playing with house money anyway but eh.

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Haste_2
03/05/20 3:55:17 PM
#41:


Hm.

With the way it's currently set up, there are four brackets of 48 (3/4 full, i.e. 12-games per division), and the "extra life" occurs in Round 3. There are 16 songs ending up with a second chance this way. The second chancers are limited to R1 and R2 losers.

If we did it according to Player 0's idea, there would be three brackets of 64 (completely full, i.e. 16-games per division). The "extra lives" would then end up in the fourth division.... it appears we would have a lot of flexibility in this scenario. We could have as many as 64 songs given a second chance in that fourth division. We would have the option of doing 16 the exact way as in the first paragraph (R1 and R2 losers). Alternatively, we could allow R3 and R4 losers (in addition to R1/R2) among the second chancers this way, as well!

Yeah, I'm liking Player 0's idea for one main reason: R3 and R4 losers could also be given second chances, depending on how we do it!


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PIayer_0
03/05/20 8:06:04 PM
#42:


I guess the issue is that it feels unjustified to lose due to circumstances external to the actual matches; if you got a really tough round 1 matchup, it feels like you lost because of unfortunate seeding, and if you got matched with an impressive second-chance opponent from some other division, it feels like you lost because they just happened to be the one that got sent to you. Sure, they're both fair in that the better songs end up advancing further, the loss just stings extra badly because you've lost your momentum partly due to bad luck with bracket placement shenanigans.

I don't really mind whether R1 or R4 songs are the ones up for redemption; I was thinking of it from the perspective of who deserves to retire, but making sure early losers are still heard twice + trying to specifically redeem the most unfortunate of seeding placements makes a lot of sense as well.

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GameBopAdv
03/05/20 9:42:26 PM
#43:


hmm, some thoughts I have on this thing, is that if all the second chancers are grouped together, the number of them that will retire is set & guaranteed. If they simply faced the normal bracket it could make their wins feel more "earned," that giving them a second chance really was the right call.

However, I guess it does feel awkward that the path to retirement would technically be arbitrarily different for 4 of the songs in each bracket, as they'd need to face a song that people decided looks strong in the current voteset, but also lost a match. Whether that difference ultimately matters, or the thing I noted at earlier in this post, or anything else brought up about this is a question I don't know the answer to. I guess in a way I talked myself into accepting either way

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Haste_2
03/05/20 10:02:54 PM
#44:


When I think about it, I would prefer R1 and R2 losers getting an extra life as opposed to R3 and R4 losers... personally I feel more pain when they lose their first or second match. If my noms make it to R3 or R4, I'm generally pretty happy with that, so I wouldn't care as much about extra lives for those. As far as how I feel if a second chancer beats one that didn't get an extra life... I don't feel it's unfair personally, looking at the match itself without factoring anything else in.

Good point in your first paragraph, GBA. That does leave doubt as to whether any of the revived songs even deserve to be retired. Maybe putting them in a separate bracket is not such a good idea, after all. However, I still think second chancers should still be moved to a different bracket.


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Mac Arrowny
03/05/20 11:14:53 PM
#45:


GameBopAdv posted...
hmm, some thoughts I have on this thing, is that if all the second chancers are grouped together, the number of them that will retire is set & guaranteed.


You could say the same thing about every division...
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azuarc
03/06/20 12:07:59 AM
#46:


Since we're talking about, let's bring some math into this. Let's pretend that every song has a strength that is (a) consistent, (b) transitive, and (c) unalterable. Obviously, none of those things are true. Then let's also pretend the placement in the bracket is purely random. Now let's rank the songs in a division 1-12.

The 1 seed will make round 3 100% of the time.
The 2 seed will make round 3 8/11 (73%) of the time and be eliminated by the 1 3/11 (27%) of the time.
The 3 seed will reach round 3 {8/11 * 4/10 + 3/11 * 8/10} (51%) of the time. It AND the 2 will lose 6/110 (5%) of the time. So it will be the bonus poll winner about 44% of the time.
It's nearly guaranteed that the remaining 29% of the time, the 4 seed will win the bonus poll.

Using more math...the chance the overall 2 seed across two divisions is in the same division as the 1 is 11/23 (47%). The chance that it loses to it in the first two rounds is 3/23 (13%). So there's roughly a 13% chance of the top two songs retiring as a result of one invading the other division. (As opposed to 52% they simply start in opposite divisions.) The chance the overall 3 seed across two divisions is ALSO in the same division is 21.7%. If it wins the bonus poll 44% of the time, as noted above, this means an invading 3 seed surpassing the other division is roughly 9.5%. Between the two, averaged across 16 divisions, we can expect roughly 3.5 division winners making the runback after losing in their initial division.

And y'know what? I'm fine with that, as long as that number is under 4. Because 4 out of 16 is the likelihood the bottom fourpack winner would triumph if we had normal 16-entry divisions. What this back-of-the-envelope math tells us is that -- with some REALLY heavy assumptions, particularly about how bad the bracket designers are -- the second-chancers have a realistic chance of winning, but not a superior (or even equal) chance.

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SuperNiceDog
03/06/20 12:11:15 AM
#47:


thanks azuarc for hosting this!

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xp1337
03/06/20 12:12:17 AM
#48:


azuarc posted...
the second-chancers have a realistic chance of winning, but not a superior (or even equal) chance.
shoving all-in on the number of second-chancers retiring being double-digits

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azuarc
03/06/20 12:25:58 AM
#49:


xp1337 posted...
shoving all-in on the number of second-chancers retiring being double-digits

*quickly changes the bracket design so there's only 8 divisions*

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azuarc
03/06/20 11:38:22 AM
#50:


Page 2 hype

Testing something...interesting, apparently you can copy-paste bolded/italicized now, but you can't use <b> tags.

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