Board 8 > The Coronavirus Topic #2 - COMPLETE GLOBAL SATURATION

(+) Yeah! (+)

One of WA Sen Maria Cantwells staffers has tested positive for covid:

https://twitter.com/nataliewsj/status/1237923762865090561?s=21

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Also:

https://twitter.com/broderick/status/1237846071851675651?s=21

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colliding posted...

Estimates are that 45% of the U.S. will get this, though I've seen reports as high as 70%.

I remain puzzled by this given China, the epicenter, will definitely not hit this mark.
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v_charon posted...

I remain puzzled by this given China, the epicenter, will definitely not hit this mark.

China got it under control with pretty draconian enforced containment. We cant do that here.

Theres a lot of uncertainty though; its possible that the US will succeed in containment, but this is looking less likely every day.

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colliding posted...

can someone post the cliff notes of trump's talk

He apparently misspoke about some very key things like whether or not goods are banned from Europe and whether or not insurance companies have agreed to waive copay for treatment, so maybe wait until its all sorted out
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Theres a lot of uncertainty though

That's my biggest issue with all this. Reports like those, especially ones claiming 70% of the population will be infected, don't seem to actually be founded in any actual conclusive evidence. On a virus that doesn't seem to really have a lot known about it at this time, accusations like that are downright dangerous and are leading to hysteria, which is dangerous in itself.
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I'm supposed to get a consultation for wisdom teeth extraction, but now I'm wondering how safe it is to do that surgery right now. Perhaps if I don't NEED them taken out in the short term, the best bet would be to wait a while.

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v_charon posted...

That's my biggest issue with all this. Reports like those, especially ones claiming 70% of the population will be infected, don't seem to actually be founded in any actual conclusive evidence. On a virus that doesn't seem to really have a lot known about it at this time, accusations like that are downright dangerous and are leading to hysteria, which is dangerous in itself.

I disagree, though it probably is important to explain more carefully.

Basically, because growth is exponential (at least until a substantial fraction of the population is infected) you should really be thinking of the error bars as being for the logarithm of the number of people infected (so if my best estimate is that 1000 people get infected in a much larger population, 100 and 10000 are roughly equally likely).

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Didn't China literally weld people into their houses to contain things?

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Wasn't Trump just posting twitter memes about how the coronovirus isn't a big deal?

this escalated quickly

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GANON1025 posted...

I'm supposed to get a consultation for wisdom teeth extraction, but now I'm wondering how safe it is to do that surgery right now. Perhaps if I don't NEED them taken out in the short term, the best bet would be to wait a while.

Why would it be unsafe? Isn't a pandemic a good time to take surgery that will put you out of commission in your house for a couple weeks?

Just don't catch the coronovarius

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For once in a long while Im glad to be in HK, unreal how much quicker it spread in Europe and US despite being a month behind

I booked a $600 hotel this weekend in a major city for St Patrick's Day like two months ago, and I'm being told that I can't cancel the reservation and will be charged the full amount.

Hotels in that city are now like $200 for the weekend. Really don't want to be out $600, but they're also cancelling like all activities so there isn't really even a reason to go now. Ugh.

Nanahara715 posted...

I booked a $600 hotel this weekend in a major city for St Patrick's Day like two months ago, and I'm being told that I can't cancel the reservation and will be charged the full amount.

Hotels in that city are now like $200 for the weekend. Really don't want to be out $600, but they're also cancelling like all activities so there isn't really even a reason to go now. Ugh.

Cause a ruckus.

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It's causing Space Jam to trend lmao

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Life is like a box of chocolates.
You never know what you're gonna get.
Even Coronavirus.

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I booked a hotel in Vegas and was worried I'd lose my money if EDC in May is cancelled since they don't offer refunds. But MGM Resorts sent me an email and said anyone who books a hotel by April 30 and can't make the reservation due to the Coronavirus can cancel or rebook for a future date. Phew.

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Going to Vegas in 2 1/2 weeks, hopefully will still be happening!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I disagree, though it probably is important to explain more carefully.

Basically, because growth is exponential (at least until a substantial fraction of the population is infected) you should really be thinking of the error bars as being for the logarithm of the number of people infected (so if my best estimate is that 1000 people get infected in a much larger population, 100 and 10000 are roughly equally likely).

Oh another point that's relevant here as far as the upper estimates go: because people develop immunity after having been infected (though we don't know how long that lasts...) and the rate of infection is proportional to the (local) fraction of the population who are not infected/immune, we can get an idea of how many people will ultimately *not* get infected. Afaik it's estimated that on average a person infected with the virus will infect between two and three people in a completely vulnerable population that's not taking any precautions. If that's the case, once somewhere between half and two thirds of the population has been infected, each victim will be infecting fewer than one person on average and the epidemic will die on its own. If with social distancing we can get the average number of infected people down to some R, roughly 1/R of the population will remain uninfected (so only a third of people will get it if we can bring it down to 1.5). That's a bit of a simplification, but that's the rough idea (of course, this breaks down if the immunity period is really short and lots of people start getting reinfected).

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This is hilarious. People are furious that the NBA is cancelled and their first argument is the flu is worse. Wow, cant cure stupid.

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Idiots are spouting "tHe FlU iS wOrSe" everywhere.

I found out if they end up shutting down my job I get 2 weeks paid vacation for free. I work at Walmart so I'm kinda liking the chances of that happening


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Been trying to stay away from hitting the panic button on this but I think we've hit the point we are right on the edge of hitting the button. Going to say everyone should make sure they are ready to hole up at home for two weeks in the imminent future. Talking 2 to 5 days, not a week or two future. If the spread isn't halted soon we will pass the point of no return.

Ive been somewhat encouraged by the large amount of high profile cancellations/closures. I kind of feel like the last day or two was really an inflection point in people getting it. Even Trump is starting to seem like he might be on the verge of realizing how fucked the situation could get.

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genuinely convinced that tucker carlson's segments on it have made trump take it more seriously. it's the only show he watches start to finish and he takes that guy's opinion very seriously. would be what, the third time tucker says something and flips trump's stance?

also you should've definitely been with 2-3 weeks worth of food by now. if you haven't, you spent a bit too long a time in the just a flu camp or something, definitely get your bread, canned food, rice, beans, meat, frozen foods, etc.

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So we had the first death here in Greece. He was 66 years old and he was in poor health. And we have almost 100 cases too. Sad times. We closed the schools for 2 weeks, and all gatherings above a specific number of people are banned. And these are for start.

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I have like maybe a weeks worth of food. Damnit.

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Please do not be discouraged to go out and get food. Prior viruses have been just as bed but the lack of social media prevented the crazy frantic mess that we are now enduring.

Why go out when I can get it delivered

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As a general rule, two weeks of food is good practice anyway.

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NHL season, as well as MLS, suspended currently. MLB as well, and likely delaying opening day

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Moonroof posted...

Please do not be discouraged to go out and get food. Prior viruses have been just as bed but the lack of social media prevented the crazy frantic mess that we are now enduring.

Indeed. If not for social media maybe there wouldn't have been 2,000 new cases in Italy in the last day.

Go to your room, the adults are talking

Safer_777 posted...

and all gatherings above a specific number of people are banned. And these are for start.

Same here in the Netherlands. No events with more than 100 people. Not that I ever went to those, but still..
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WWE and Tampa are still locked in a game of political chicken about who will take the responsibility to cancel WM
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colliding posted...

Indeed. If not for social media maybe there wouldn't have been 2,000 new cases in Italy in the last day.

Go to your room, the adults are talking

Ignore him, it's a troll account. Has been his gimmick for the past month when he randomly showed up.

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Looks like I'm never gonna find out how The Inheritance on Broadway ends! Was hoping to see part 2 this weekend, but Cuomo just shut down the Broadway theaters. The play was set to end this Sunday, so I doubt it'll come back.

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Yeah, NY rule is anything over 500 is with heavy restrictions, Broadway taking effect today at 5pm, the rest Friday. We'll find out what that soon means.

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I just saw Hamilton with my brother on Friday in SF and he forwarded me an article last night that said it was cancelled until further notice

That was a day before SF got its first announced cases and Ive been kinda paranoid since!

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Paleyfest got postponed which is kind of a bummer since I was going to see The Mandalorian. I know a lot of people who are going to lose a lot of money on that decision.

Disneyland is still open despite the ban on large gatherings due to "special circumstances". I believe those circumstances are "it makes us a lot of money".

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My kids' school is closing tomorrow

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Grand Kirby posted...

Disneyland is still open despite the ban on large gatherings due to "special circumstances". I believe those circumstances are "it makes us a lot of money".

I returned from attempting to head to Arizona for spring training the rain is calming down in a couple hours and then I'm heading right to Disneyland.

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Ohio is banning all gatherings of more than 100 people in the same room, and effective Monday is closing schools for 3 weeks.

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Meanwhile we arent closing schools because the government doesnt think kids should be in the same house as homeworking parents all day or something. Sucks to be you kids.
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Wondercon postponed

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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Ohio is banning all gatherings of more than 100 people in the same room, and effective Monday is closing schools for 3 weeks.

Holy fuck.

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My work is doing mandatory work from home until March 31 at a minimum

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That is a fucking power move by Ohio. Wow.

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Kinglicious posted...

That is a fucking power move by Ohio. Wow.

The moment a case showed up DeWine started acting. He isn't beginning to pretend the goal of this is to stop the spread. This is specifically to slow things down to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed and leading to unnecessary deaths.

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Hotel didnt charge me for the room I booked for spring training. Good points for Marriott.

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I don't know what other states are doing, but I will say I've been pretty happy with the Ohio response, especially given how early it is relative to the number of cases identified so far (5 as of today).

It did take them a long time to get access to the test, but I'm not sure how at fault Ohio is for that.
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