Current Events > A leaked presentation of the coronavirus outbreak

(+) Yeah! (+)

From Business Insider it estimates 96 million US coronavirus cases and 480,000 deaths.

Their model included a 0.5% mortality rate even though the current rate in Italy is at 4.25%.



Here's the Tweet.
https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1236054532116877312

Its like The Stand is coming true.

Mmm nah

Its good to prepare for a worst case scenario but those numbers frankly just dont make sense. Everyone is predicting based on confirmed cases and not the very likely (almost definite) possibility that there are people who have been going unreported due to mildness of symptoms.

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Mmm nah

so are you saying that these are fake, or that they're wrong?

because hey if you know something they don't i'm sure the aha would like to hear from you. go on and enlighten them.

i think there's value to being skeptical about something like this. fake leaks are a thing, and they can trick anyone. don't get me wrong.
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better to assume the worst and be prepared than not
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E32005 posted...

better to assume the worst and be prepared than not

Making numbers up and calling them the "worst" isn't wise though. You should create realistic case scenarios. This sounds like a wild stab in the dark to appear like they are more competent than they are.

Pancake posted...

Mmm nah

so are you saying that these are fake, or that they're wrong?

because hey if you know something they don't i'm sure the aha would like to hear from you. go on and enlighten them.

Im saying that many epidemics have had far worse predictions than what actually happened.

Its a good thing. The AHA cant take the liberty of assuming unreported cases in this sort of statistic, and so we should prepare for a worst-case scenario. But it was leaked, and not just released, for a reason. Theres not enough data to make these sorts of predictions yet. This will only add to the panic, which is a far bigger threat than the virus itself.

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Bananana posted...

Its a good thing. The AHA cant take the liberty of assuming unreported cases in this sort of statistic, and so we should prepare for a worst-case scenario. But it was leaked, and not just released, for a reason. Theres not enough data to make these sorts of predictions yet. This will only add to the panic, which is a far bigger threat than the virus itself.

The media being incompetent as always.