Poll of the Day > I wish we could know how much of a difference these quarantines actually make.

(+) Yeah! (+)

When you consider that we're crippling economies, and causing millions to go without paychecks for nearly a month (or longer), it'd be nice to know definitively how WORTH IT these measures actually are. Even with the higher death tolls than influenza, the vast majority of the people sick with COVID-19 still make a full recovery. In reality, most people catch a good virus or two every single year (sometimes more than that), and even though you feel like shit, you understand that the bug will pass, and the world keeps on spinning (No shutdowns. No panic buying. No plummeting stock prices.)

Furthermore, if nobody in or around your life ever catches COVID-19, there's no way to definitively PROVE that you actually would have caught the bug in a scenario WITHOUT the massive quarantine / shutdown measures. (There's a very real chance that the virus would have dissipated on its own without affecting you, even though the media would SAY it's because "The quarantine worked.")

Lastly, even WITH the quarantines, you still have assholes like this guy in Kentucky, who disregard the rules of the quarantine, further undermining the effectiveness of the concept (and we all know damn well, this old geezer in KY is only one of thousands who don't give a shit.)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/us/kentucky-refused-quarantine-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

TL'DR Version: I wish we could know how much of a difference these quarantines actually make for health purposes, because they sure as hell make a difference to people's livelihoods. If people have a choice of feeling like shit for 4 days, or going without pay for a month, I'd wager many would rather just feel like shit and get back to work on day 5.

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It would be nice, but realistically the vast majority of people lack the background knowledge to properly assess a complex situation like this. Best thing we can do is pay attention to what the experts say.

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We do know.
https://fox2now.com/news/philadelphia-didnt-cancel-a-parade-during-a-1918-pandemic-the-results-were-devastating/
While not a quarantine, the link above shows what can happen when you allow large groups of people get together during a pandemic.

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https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/

historically we know that this is an example of how social distancing works during an epidemic



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We've already seen some of the impact in other nations. The bigger problem right now is that we're doing things in half-measure instead of just shutting down everything for a week or two, mostly because we're more concerned by the potential economic damage than the potential for massive harm.

And it's impossible to know how many lives will be saved by even the smaller measures seen now.

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Playsaver posted...

We do know.
https://fox2now.com/news/philadelphia-didnt-cancel-a-parade-during-a-1918-pandemic-the-results-were-devastating/
While not a quarantine, the link above shows what can happen when you allow large groups of people get together during a pandemic.

Mead posted...

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/

historically we know that this is an example of how social distancing works during an epidemic

But, mind you, they didn't shut the entire fucking city of St. Louis down. They merely cancelled the parade. But indeed, I guess that's the best measure we have to go by. (Learning from past mistakes). Also, just based on the napkin math of that incident's statistics, the death rate of Spanish Flu was about 3% (same as COVID-19, at least to date).

I guess the big question here is, How minimal can you make the damage to the economy while still curbing the spread of disease?

Nobody is saying that the CONCEPT of quarantines is faulty. We all know that (at least on paper, and historically) they CAN make a difference. There are just so many questions that reasonably follow. Do you JUST cancel mass events? (e.g. parades / stadiums full of 20,000+ people / etc.) Do we close down stores / restaurants / service industries? Italy has pretty much shut down everything at this point. Drawing the perfect line is easier said than done.

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waaah line go down, we should let millions of elderly and immunocompromised people die instead

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OniRonin posted...

waaah line go down, we should let millions of elderly and immunocompromised people die instead

Well, that's one way to draw the line. Perhaps there's a more balanced approach.

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funkyfritter posted...

It would be nice, but realistically the vast majority of people lack the background knowledge to properly assess a complex situation like this. Best thing we can do is pay attention to what the experts say.

That's been the general consensus. Learning from Italy's mistakes, it'll be better to overreact than to underreact (since once the damage is done, there's very little you can do to correct the issue at that point). I guess that's what's driving the general panic and fear as well. We don't want another Italy, so economy be damned.

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If we just closed the stock market at the same time as quarantine, the damage would be fairly minimal. But apparently the world wants to trade off the pandemic to push cash higher up.
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shipwreckers posted...

Do you JUST cancel mass events? (e.g. parades / stadiums full of 20,000+ people / etc.) Do we close down stores / restaurants / service industries? Italy has pretty much shut down everything at this point. Drawing the perfect line is easier said than done.

Err on the side of caution. Dont gather in groups and try to stay 6 or so feet away from people when possible. Wash your hands regularly. Try not to touch your face.

eat some pizza. Its good.


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Zangulus posted...

TC: I wish we had an idea whether this would work...

Multiple responses: It does, and it saves lives.

TC: Yeah, but does it actually work! Also money is more important than people dying because we overloaded our medical system.

I think you still have it in for me from that other topic where I made that piss-poor comparison with Steve Jobs.

That's fair. But, here in reality-land where people are struggling to make ends meet, it doesn't seem unreasonable to seek a balanced approach. Perhaps I could have also worded the topic title better. The REAL question I'm getting at is How minimal can you make the damage to the economy while still curbing the spread of disease?

That's not an unreasonable question. But, hey, I'm on your shitlist, so who gives a fuck what my question is?

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Zangulus posted...

I didnt even know that was you... Youre really not that special. So no, I was just commenting on what I saw in this topic, and this topic alone.

As for your real question, which didnt come out until now, the economy will recover.

People who die because of overcrowded hospitals dont.

But thats just my take.

Meh, either way. I'm willing to own my mistakes. Bad topic is bad (both that one and this one).

It's just that if there IS a way to minimize people's lives going to shit (whether via health or economics), it merits discussion. Sadly, there's no real winner in a pandemic, so no matter how you slice it, some people's lives are gonna go to shit (no matter how much planning / discussion / precaution / etc.)

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Zangulus posted...

Youre responding way stronger than I am with this response. I merely pointed out the bad idea of this topic, and more importantly the refusal to accept information given in this topic.

Much the same as the other topic, I merely responded and pointed out the problems with your logic in that topic. Here you are thinking I even gave 1 second of thought about you outside of that topic. I havent.

I see your point. Fair enough.

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Kyuubi4269 posted...

If we just closed the stock market at the same time as quarantine, the damage would be fairly minimal. But apparently the world wants to trade off the pandemic to push cash higher up.

idk, the last time the stock market was shut down there was a lot of damage

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nppON29OZ_4

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Its a lesser of two evils kinda thing. Social and economic disruption or hundreds of thousands (maybe millions?) of deaths which would cause social and economic disruption AND have the virus still chugging along at full infection speed. It sucks, but its the better choice, imho. Plus, if it works well ever really know if we went too far. Thats kinda the point of extreme measures.

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