Board 8 > The Show EP 2 - Undertale Dethroned, Mario/Doom Amaze + All Time Gurus w/ swirl!

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hey, show shoutout!

Yeah it was me who made the comment on 80% results. To the despair of my Oracle, because I based all my div 1-4 picks on the assumption nothing breaks 80% here (and 75% is hard to achieve).

Of course I could go and change the picks, but who the hell has the time for that. I have to play Celeste.

The 2018 X-Stats were just recently made available because I finally bothered to try to make sense of that double elimination section!
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Yes this Ori result was designed as the perfect Show Curse, but someone just had to go and spoil it!


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Whew, good episode! Enjoyed the walk down memory lane with the top 11 Gurus of all-time. I didn't have anything really to add there. You guys did a good job covering it.
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So I skipped right to the Show's *SPECIAL*, and it was pretty enlightening and funny. XD

I wonder how swirl managed to count all the points. Probably Excel, but I'm not very good at it.

It was nice to hear you guys' voices again. Such a trip back to a-year-and-a-half ago. Forgot that I personally and unconsciously visualized Yoblazer with a great beard back in the day. Yo has an awesome, deep voice, I should note.

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Ngamer64 posted...

Yes this Ori result was designed as the perfect Show Curse, but someone just had to go and spoil it!

Well, someone had to save The Show from ruin.

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Advokaiser posted...

I wonder how swirl managed to count all the points. Probably Excel, but I'm not very good at it.

Just copy pasted results from the guru website to excel and ran some sum formulas. It's pretty easy to learn.

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Danganronpa is basically Phoenix Wright with more tragedy and death, and crazier plot (though PW's cases are better written imo).

I feel like this series would be a lot more popular if Board 8 had a banner on top of it saying "Like PW? Check out DR!" It's really our type of game.

Eh, it's also a lot more "anime" than Ace Attorney, which turns some people away from it. I think most PW fans are aware of DR's existence and have either played it or are aware it isn't for them!
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Lightning Strikes posted...

To put the Outer Worlds performance in some context: it got a higher percentage in a ten option poll than it did against Breath of the Wild.

This made me laugh really hard.

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As of right now, I am now listening to this episode.
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When Ngamer started talking about the world changing in between episode 1 and episode 2, I thought he was going to mention coronavirus. Instead, he goes into talking about Breath of the Wild's performance on The Outer Worlds. He later did mention coronavirus, still.
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

Danganronpa is basically Phoenix Wright with more tragedy and death, and crazier plot (though PW's cases are better written imo).

I feel like this series would be a lot more popular if Board 8 had a banner on top of it saying "Like PW? Check out DR!" It's really our type of game.

Pretty much. Phoenix Wright has a greater emphasis on the mystery itself, with complex murder set ups, particularly in later games when the bar has been raised.

Danganronpa puts more emphasis on its characters and their motives/relations, since the character that was instrumental in a solving a previous case can turn out to the perpetrator this time around.

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tag

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LeonhartFour posted...

The whole "DKC is a stronger series than DMC" argument is why you can't just take that at face value when picking individual games.

At this point, I wouldn't even say DKC is the stronger series, even independent of what the match between their latest installments tells us. DMC3 scored 35% on Metroid Prime and DMC managed 42% on KotOR in GotD I. Those results, at least to me, are a bit better than DKC2's 38% on SotN in the contest of the SNES. Dante's also a bit stronger than DK through extrapolation of the same division in 2018.

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all time guru here we go

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Another three hour episode...

May have to split it between a couple of days.

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yoblazer's take on that Overwatch/Death Stranding match is pretty good. GameFAQs has heavily moved away from multiplayer games in general over the course of the last decade. That's why Call of Duty has gone from being very relevant on GameFAQs at the beginning of the decade (in 2010) to being turbofodder weak for games not named "Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare".

Smash and Mario Kart may be the only 2 multiplayer heavy series on GameFAQs that still remain very relevant, but they break all the rules and are the exception here.

As for why multiplayer gaming has faded very hard on this site - I think this is a product of the increasing average age of this site's users. When much of this site's users is now over 30 and have full time jobs or are now focusing on raising kids, it's much harder to find time to play games online with other people. A combination of full time jobs, raising kids, or doing outdoor activities has made it difficult to arrange an optimal time for playing games with other people. Like, if you tried to set a specific date/time to play a specific game online, you'll find some people who can play at that time, but lots of others who will be busy doing other things.
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Major props to yoblazer for taking Bloodborne to win its round 2 match against Fire Emblem: Awakening. I took the same upset in my bracket because I felt like Bloodborne is even stronger now than it showed in 2015.
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MetalmindStats posted...

Those results, at least to me, are a bit better than DKC2's 38% on SotN in the contest of the SNES.

Yeah, but I'd take DKC1 to be stronger than DKC2, and it doesn't necessarily mean that DMC is the stronger series anyway.
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Agree with swirl that BotW's performance is a step above the other blowouts we've seen. Outer Worlds is not that weak.

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Not quite sure I agree that Odyssey is a threat to BotW.

I think people are forgetting the very clear Nintendo pecking order

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Think you guys are overestimating FF15 here. Tripling Edith Finch doesn't look so great after a lot of the other blowouts we've seen happen.

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I agree with yo that Bayonetta and her game sharing the same name helps both of their strength. It's just how those things work sometimes. Zelda the character is nowhere near as strong as she is if her name is Tiffany or something.

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I was in the middle of typing a 'DMC5 was well-received yadda yadda' post just as yo said that he knew someone was going to go into the topic and say something like that to justify the result.

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Anyway, here's my actual explanation for that outside of the bits swirldude already touched upon:

DMC5 was a bigger deal than Tropical Freeze. It simply was. Even if you're not a fan of the DMC series, you probably know Dante, and you knew that Capcom had done Dante dirty. DmC: Devil May Cry was a catastrophe for the series' reputation, and 90% of that was because they replaced its beloved icon protagonist with...that. For all intents and purposes, Dante and Devil May Cry as people knew it was dead. Again, even if you never played the series, you knew about this meta-narrative. DmC's story and writing sucked, but the story behind the story is what really mattered, and it got a lot of press at the time.

Then the first trailer for DMC5 drops. Outside of being a great trailer with an extremely catchy song that got really popular, it has five seconds of Dante - the real Dante - in it. The game looked amazing, and more importantly, Dante was BACK. Capcom had listened to their fans and given them what they asked for, and I think gamers appreciate it when companies do that. DMC5 itself lived up to the hype, but the reason it had that hype to begin with was because of the meta-narrative behind the entire DMC series. It turned the series around and gave people Dante back.

In contrast, Tropical Freeze was just another platformer. One with a great reception and solid sales, but it wasn't an 'event' like DMC5 was. I don't think DMC5 will be very strong at all, but that's enough to put it over a game that I think is going to be preeeetty far down the final Xstats list for this contest.

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Tropical Freeze has always been a victim of both timing and platform. A lot of great games got sucked into the black hole that was the Wii U. On top of that, Tropical Freeze was initially a February release and was totally snubbed from any GotY discussion among the gaming media. TF struggled to get attention back in 2014 and it's still overlooked today, despite a Switch re-release.

I think it's the best 2D platformer since DKC2 and I probably let my personal opinion of the game get in the way when I chose it to win. I mean, I was blindsided by the result too.

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Galaxy lost to CoD when CoD was at its peak here and Pokmon then Smash were in the poll.

KP is basically right, DMC5 was a big return while TF was a well-received iteration. The five seconds of Dante is the worst part of that trailer too - it was an incredibly hype trailer, one of the all time greats.

https://youtu.be/KMSGj9Y2T9Q

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My one-third-through thoughts:

• I agree with 128 entrants over 64, in part because making a decade with more diversity and many more games have only 64 entrants versus 128 for last GotD would be highly suspect. However, I'm convinced this bracket would have been much more competitive without meaningfully impacting representation or seeds as a gauge of GotD prestige if Allen hadn't excised second and third installments in certain series - say, if 15 such games were allowed in, just enough to keep Trails SC in the field. As an aside to Ng, the 350 nominations you guessed for FTL would be almost double the 196 for 12-seeds Jak and Ocelot in 2010, even though site traffic as measured by polls is now only an eighth of what it was then (and also fewer noms per user were allowed this time than in the 2010 character battle).
• Now onto the format and entrants we did have, rather than hypotheticals: normally, I'd agree with Yo that an 85-15 blowout is more interesting than a 65-35 win. However, the 65-35s have always had something going on so far, even if that's typically just been the winner getting exposed, whereas the mega-blowouts have overplayed themselves a bit by now. Also, a thought I couldn't fit anywhere else: indies generally overperforming to date shouldn't necessarily be taken as an indication that Rocket League will do the same, because it's a casual-skewing, multiplayer-focused sports game, something GameFAQs has never cared about.
• I also concur with swirl, BotW's 85 is still amazing, and it has nothing to do with title confusion (as Outer Wilds' GotY results indicated, new indies don't tend to have any strength here) or obvious winner antivotes causing a lack of transitivity. The Outer Worlds is simply a bigger deal than other blowout victims: it's essentially New Vegas developer Obsidian's long-awaited successor to that game, and it almost beat Sekiro in a GotY poll (albeit it was an Xbox One poll, and no one really thinks of Sekiro as an Xbox One game).
• To me, Dragon Quest XI's first round showing was still very impressive even amidst a series of 80% blowouts, just because it was a better percent than Kirby is projected to score on Estelle through Isaac. I doubt there was a huge degree of SFF contributing, either, since DQ11 is mainly a PS4 and Switch game, whereas Trails SC is only on PC and PSP stateside.
• As KP said, you guys are underestimating FF15's chances of becoming a Round 2 upset victim. Most notably, I don't think its antivotes have peaked yet, if only because it would be easy for anyone who doesn't outright hate FF15 to bracket vote for it against the non-entity that is Edith Finch. Hollow Knight is legitimately well-liked, so I doubt such a divisive game can eke out many 'who cares' bracket votes. In fact, FF15 would have to double Berseria indirectly to beat Hollow Knight by the type of margin you all seem to be expecting, which is pretty implausible considering Velvet is actually stronger than Noctis.
• Likewise, I think there were plenty of reasons to be worried about Mass Effect 2 even before its Bioware sibling put up the biggest bomb of the contest to date. You don't have to be a big believer in GotY polls translating to contest strength to notice Resident Evil 7's consistent flops in them - 30% on NieR: Automata is said game's best GotY result. I also doubt the VR version made much of a difference, considering that only 10% of the site has a PlayStation VR. That the Resident Evil brand is in a good place now is a fair point, but there's only so strong RE7 could be even with that in mind. As greatone pointed out, whichever game faces ME2 in the divisional finals (If the latter makes it there) will also be coming off two close matches for further momentum - against an antivote-susceptible game, a sub-class which has pretty consistently choked so far this contest. Yes, there's Fallout 4, but with everything we've seen to date, Occam's Razor suggests that VVVVVV is about as weak as you'd expect from a 2010 indie game that's not exactly within GameFAQs' wheelhouse.
• Finally, while Doom was obviously more impressive than Resident Evil 2, it doesn't necessarily look stronger considering Danganrompa has a real, albeit small, fanbase on GameFAQs.

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Tag

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Congrats to the 11 GOAT gurus!

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I don't think 128 entrants goes far enough

we didn't get Captain Toad so clearly we need 256 entrants

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MetalmindStats posted...

However, I'm convinced this bracket would have been much more competitive without meaningfully impacting representation or seeds as a gauge of GotD prestige if Allen hadn't excised second and third installments in certain series

still not convinced this actually happened when your biggest snubs are the Zelda game we didn't care about, Pokemon games that we aren't high on, and a Smash game that's totally obsolete now

and there isn't a single snub from that list that I feel like this contest really needed, and I'm sure not crying any tears over those series getting raw deals even if it did happen

MetalmindStats posted...

To me, Dragon Quest XI's first round showing was still very impressive even amidst a series of 80% blowouts, just because it was a better percent than Kirby is projected to score on Estelle through Isaac.

Eh, Estelle would be stronger than Trails SC because you can vote for Estelle without playing the game if you like her design, or you just don't like Isaac or Golden Sun.
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MetalmindStats posted...

Finally, while Doom was obviously more impressive than Resident Evil 2, it doesn't necessarily look stronger considering Danganrompa has a real, albeit small, fanbase on GameFAQs.

there is a big difference between 13% and 16% believe it or not

if you assume DR2 = INSIDE, DOOM beats RE2 with 58.68%

that's why DOOM getting over 86% is so impressive
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Since you mentioned future picks, allow me to hype up my upset of Starcraft 2>Mass Effect 3:

So first of all, there has been some major underestimation of Starcraft 2 going on. That game was huge when it came out, it got a great reception, it did very, very well in the GotY polls that year, beating HGSS, and coming very close to God of War III and Super Mario Galaxy 2. The first expansion came second in the PC poll that year, and the third, after the hype had faded, was in an effective tie with MGSV. Second, Mass Effect 3 not only has a history of choking but Bioware in general has looked awful this year. Look at this result - of the four Bioware games released in the last ten years from now (ie not ME2), this is the one people like, and it is choking. Ori will be fine, but it's not a top tier indie either. It would certainly lose to Starcraft 2. Add to that the fact that with everything that has happened to the Mass Effect franchise recently and everything ME3 represents, that game will get antivoted. So that's why I took Starcraft 2.

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I feel like we're talking about two different Starcraft 2s! I think people were initially hyped because of how long it had been since the first. Then people realized it wasn't as good as the original and stopped caring because they didn't want to keep paying for separate expansions.

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Ngamer64 posted...

Good news for Dark Souls brackets: Last of Us 2 has been delayed until probably the middle of Summer (was previously going to come out shortly after this bracket).

Seems like I'll have to place my hopes on the HBO show now.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Since I'm hitting this part of The Show at a good time, I think you guys might have overestimated how much hated Overwatch is. It's definitely not GameFAQs's wheelhouse, but it's not an anti-vote magnet earlier. D'Va proved last time that GameFAQs will take it in certain situations, and Death Stranding reminded me too much of Aloy in that contest.

Well Overwatch is basically Team Fortress' spiritual successor, and I don't think that game is hated here either.

LusterSoldier posted...

Smash and Mario Kart may be the only 2 multiplayer heavy series on GameFAQs that still remain very relevant, but they break all the rules and are the exception here.

I actually believe this multiplayer downward trend may weaken Smash and it is the main reason I'm picking it to lose to Mario. Sure, we all love Smash, but did we love it more than the quintessential Nintendo single player experience? DId we even have friends to play Ultimate with?

KamikazePotato posted...

Think you guys are overestimating FF15 here. Tripling Edith Finch doesn't look so great after a lot of the other blowouts we've seen happen.

As the dumbass who picked Berseria to beat FF15 on a whim a few hours before the bracket closed:

I still think FF15 is a paper tiger. Go look at its board. Half the threads in there are bashing the game. The other half are FF7R hype.

It also happens to have a single FAQ for each system it's in (Berseria, in comparison, has about 4 FAQs per system). It's freaking Final Fantasy on gameFAQs, and we did not bother to make Walkthroughs for it.

I know that's all anedoctical evidence, but it feels to me this site doesn't have any kind of passion for it. Something like Hollow Knight, who has passion, could snag that victory.

Oh, FFXV is definitely vulnerable next round. It's just hard to envision it actually losing until it does.

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Tropical Freeze is a legit game of the decade for me. Best 2D platformer I've ever played.

That DMC win made no sense to me, but it does help my Uncharted > Mario Kart pick. Uncharted has always done decently well and Mario Kart has always had that kind of casual stigma.

A few more:

Stars: Dragon Quest, Resident Evil 7, Shovel Knight, Xenoblade
Turds: Halo Reach, Fire Emblem Awakening, Dota, Overwatch

LeonhartFour posted...

Eh, Estelle would be stronger than Trails SC because you can vote for Estelle without playing the game if you like her design, or you just don't like Isaac or Golden Sun.

True. DQ11 probably also did SFF Trails SC somewhat because they both share old-school JRPG appeal, even though it likely wasn't extreme due to their lack of platform overlap. That being said, we all know DQ11 is nowhere near a near-elite, so the fact that its closest comparison (no matter how skewed) puts it in that rarefied air says words about how much it impressed in its match.

LeonhartFour posted...

if you assume DR2 = INSIDE, DOOM beats RE2 with 58.68%

Okay, but why would I possibly assume that? Everyone knows INSIDE is the foremost candidate for Tanner status so far, whereas Danganrompa has an actual playrate and fanbase here. That's even without getting into the DOOM INSIDE/pic-related 'something fishy factor' that could have caused DOOM to overperform there.

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I'm just saying DOOM has a pretty decent buffer for DR2 to be stronger and still beat RE2.

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wow look at these blowouts
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TRE is godlike, yes.

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I would like to hear a guru ranking by perecentage of only the contests they entered, so it wasn't so heavily weighted towards users who have been here the longest

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More of my thoughts, another third of the way through:

• I don't necessarily agree Link Between Worlds' bracket placement this contest was a massive waste, though it is unfortunate that we might not get a fully legit read on it. That being said, it feels like moving it up or down a division would have led to a much more predictable pre-contest phase, because I get the sense the majority of B8 (including myself) would have picked it to win either division without thinking pre-contest. Of course, I doubt it actually would have pulled it off given what we've seen so far, but I don't think so many B8 brackets losing points in practice would have been worth blanking one of the two most debatable divisions on paper.
• I think what really distinguished Mario Odyssey's result as beastly for me, besides the Mortal Kombat name actually having some pull here, was its trends in that match. Normally, a blowout winner's percent would peak with the board vote, and it would start falling off even before the power hour had ended. However, (besides a brief blip five minutes in), Odyssey's percent actually peaked 48 minutes in, and MK11 wasn't even able to consistently shave it for the rest of the match.
• That being said, I would guess MK11 is not so well-liked, considering how low its GameFAQs and especially Metacritic user ratings are, and how it only lasted one year in Evo (compare six and counting for Tekken 7) as the latest installment of the second biggest fighting game franchise. I'm not sure what, if anything, contributes to that besides an apparent kerfuffle over microtransactions, but there you have it. Mario also has a heinous history against Smash, as Yo pointed out, so I could see Odyssey being the Samus to Ultimate's Mario and losing close solely due to the Nintendo hierarchy.
• That Yo rant in praise of Ng's Octopath pick was legendary; personally, I can certainly say it felt great to call its win using similar logic to Ng. Also, I never really thought of the similarities between the two Knight games' second round matches before Yo pointed them out.
• No swirl, nothing DK-related had choked for ten years prior to this latest match, whereas everything DMC-related had spent the entire last decade choking beforehand. However, I do like your Wii U explanation, particularly since straight ports never make an impact here. I'm also fond of KP's DMC theory, considering how much antivotes have dragged down practically every susceptible game this contest.
• Finally, I have an idle, maybe foolish question: why would XCOM 2 be substantially stronger than the other three pieces of fodder at the start of Division 4?

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I assumed Undertale was weak, just assumed Octopath was weaker than it. I was wrong

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