Board 8 > The All Time Guru Rankings, plus Guru of the Decade (2010-2020)

(+) Yeah! (+)

kateee posted...

kateee
blindhobo
KateWadman

are all me

i still don't think i make top 100 tho =/

Okay I'll do a merge.

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Okay, rankings have been updated based on all the corrections. If you see anything that's still off, post it! New results are here

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SHvaA-wSmhlnQzeZb0TxpfgK-r8aE-Vc/view?usp=sharing

Changes in the overall Top 25- greatone moves to 16th place, knocking MMX off the list.

Changes in the GotD Top 25- ToadYoshi is the new #6, Magmortar is the new #12, greatone and ff6 slot in at 17 and 18.


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As for the other convo going on- if someone would like to calculate Best Average Performance, I'd be all for it! Volunteer to do the calculations and I'll give you edit access to the sheet.


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44th overall and 18th of the decade damn I'll take it.

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RayDyn is me

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I don't know why I missed the Villains contest. That was the contest where I won the Oracle, which isn't saying much.

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So close to the Top 10 of all time!!!

Man, I really wish I had more time to discuss things about the contest. Even with a quasi-quarantine life is just way too busy to give my thoughts on contest stats and matches as much as I used to. Board 8 will ALWAYS hold a special place in my heart - even if I don't get to spend as much time here as I used to.

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Wow, I'm surprised I am so high, although I've been around for long enough. I didn't bother entering the Guru this year since I've barely played any new games this decade, but I would have if I knew I had such an reputation to uphold!

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Nice! Sad I missed sign ups this time :(

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Ngamer64 posted...

As for the other convo going on- if someone would like to calculate Best Average Performance, I'd be all for it! Volunteer to do the calculations and I'll give you edit access to the sheet.

I would be happy to do this.

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SgtSphynx posted...

RayDyn is me

Oh yeah now I remember. I'll merge in a bit.

hylianknight3 posted...

I would be happy to do this.

Great! Could you pm me your best e-mail address?


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Updated, that moved Ray to 78 on the overall and Top 50 for Guru of the Decade.


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Glenn_and_Toad aka ToadYoshi here

This is a really cool project. I lurk and don't post much, but I've submitted a guru bracket each year for a while, and I did not expect a 6th place finish for the decade.

My message for everyone else is that even if you don't think you're good at these contests, you should still totally enter the guru contest because it's fun and you really don't need stats knowledge to do well. I never trust/rely on the X-Stats; they are a good starting point and I do look at them, but I never base my final decision off of them. Just do that and pick a few upsets each year, and you'll have a fighting chance.

Thanks for compiling this data.

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Thanks for considering my suggestion Ngamer and thanks for handling it hylianknight! Trust ya'll with whatever angle you think is most fair to gauge.

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This Guru thing has been going on for years but I have only took part in the last 2 and I am not sure why. Not that I would have done good but still .

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556th isn't too great, but apparently I only did this for the two contests in 2005 as well as the current one. I think I'd do better with the best average performance, assuming the 0's are removed.

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The zeroes will be removed.

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hylianknight3 posted...

The zeroes will be removed.

This sentence sounds wonderfully sinister out of context.

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https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/nightinthewoods/images/b/ba/Mae-Gif.gif/

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Rereading the topic:

Glenn_and_Toad posted...

My message for everyone else is that even if you don't think you're good at these contests, you should still totally enter the guru contest because it's fun and you really don't need stats knowledge to do well. I never trust/rely on the X-Stats; they are a good starting point and I do look at them, but I never base my final decision off of them. Just do that and pick a few upsets each year, and you'll have a fighting chance.

Good encouragement and nice message -- it's one of the best parts of the contest and you never know when you're gonna be at the top or near it.

Leonhart4 posted...

Better than I would've expected considering I'm almost always middle of the pack!

You were like THE person here where my jaw dropped a bit when I saw I finished ahead of ya. You've always brought your A-game to these contests and conversations, plus like besides Master Hand I feel like I'm usually on the wrong side of our debates.

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I always take too many risks!

well except this year somehow
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I do have a question about the data for the 2018 contest. There are quite a few Gurus who finished on the final leaderboard, but their numbers there do not match their numbers in the spreadsheet. Our reigning champ, Advokaiser, won his crown with 532 points according to the scoreboard but only 456 according to the spreadsheet. Swifty and Swirl each have 526 on the board but 450 in the sheet. I apologize if this discrepancy has already been explained and I missed it.

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hylianknight3 posted...

I do have a question about the data for the 2018 contest. There are quite a few Gurus who finished on the final leaderboard, but their numbers there do not match their numbers in the spreadsheet. Our reigning champ, Advokaiser, won his crown with 532 points according to the scoreboard but only 456 according to the spreadsheet. Swifty and Swirl each have 526 on the board but 450 in the sheet. I apologize if this discrepancy has already been explained and I missed it.

The guru site never updated with the final matches results, which was worth 76 points.

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I added 76 points to the scores of everyone who picked Link in the final match of the last contest. This does shake up the leaderboard, pushing Master Moltar ahead of Ultimaterializer, who predicted Monika would win.

I created two tabs for adjusted average performance, one relative to the overall contest winner and one relative to the guru champ. It is beyond my station to say which is the more meaningful metric, so I thought I would use both and let you decide for yourselves.

You may notice that the top of each list is dominated by all-time Board 8 luminaries like Cavemanbob and KrustytheKlown, who entered one contest and scored an extremely high percentage in their one showing. You may also notice that the bottom of each list is dominated by people who entered one contest and scored a very low percentage and also Wizardsfan.

I have not yet done anything with the 2010-2020 data, neither adding the 76 points for the 2018 finale nor entering any average performance calculations on this data set, but I would be more than happy to do so tomorrow. It is possible that a list with further adjustments, such as including only people who entered a certain number of contests, would be worthwhile, though I'm not sure what parameters would be best. I will leave that question in NGamer's hands. I don't want to add too many tabs to another man's spreadsheet without permission!

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Cool job, thank you for trying this out! I didn't realize how different the lists could look like in comparison, wow.

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Well the last match's points should definitely be counted for the all-time rankings. Would anyone actually argue against that?

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I updated the 2010-2020 data to include the points for the 2018 finale, and I have created two tabs for adjusted performance for the decade, again with one measured relative to the contest winner and one relative to the Guru champ. That can, of course, still be found here:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SHvaA-wSmhlnQzeZb0TxpfgK-r8aE-Vc/view?usp=sharing

HaRRicH posted...

Cool job, thank you for trying this out! I didn't realize how different the lists could look like in comparison, wow.

I was very surprised as well! When I began, I was not sure whether or not both sets would be worth keeping, but I now believe they are. Both metrics have a valid claim to legitimacy, and at least for data nerds like ourselves, both have reason to be interesting in their own right.

To sate my ego, I will use myself as an example. I am 280th as measured against the contest winner, which is worse than my lifetime Guru ranking of 251st. However, when measured against the Guru champ, I move all the way up to 49th!

This has a lot to do with the 2013 and 2015 contests, in which Draven and Undertale wreaked swaths of destruction through all of our brackets, champs included. 2013 Guru champ raytan scored 64.74% on contest winner ERLiNo, while 2015 Guru champ DPOblivion scored 78.21% on contest winner Meowgoocat.

Clearly being graded relative to the most successful members of our peer group, who did not see Draven and Undertale being megarallied to victory any more than the rest of us*, is more forgiving than being graded relative to the contest winners, who took weird chances that paid off big time.

* raytan picked Draven to win one match, while DPOBlivion picked Undertale to lose in the first round!


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The sheet is looking great! I can see how both versions of the average score rankings have value, yes.

Personally I'd be in favor of putting some limits on the average sheets though. How about, since there have been 16 contests with results so far, we list the people who sent brackets for 7 or more at the top of the Average All Time sheets? Those that don't make the threshold could be listed in order below them.

For 2010-2020 we've had 7 brackets, so I think listing those who participated in at least 3 would be a good way to do it. Maybe we want to stretch that to 4 though? And again, everyone else could be ranked in order underneath.


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Whatever you think is best!

Would you prefer leaving the current tabs intact so that the lists of averages without qualifications remain for curiositys sake and making new tabs with these limits in place?

Or do you think that would mean simply too many tabs in a single spreadsheet and prefer that I simply place the limits on the existing tabs instead?

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Oh shoot! I didn't get around to posting that I did put these limits in place as requested, setting a minimum of seven for the lifetime averages and a minimum of three for the decade averages. My apologies.

For the time being, I left the sets of averages without minimums in as separate tabs, but if you feel the spreadsheet is becoming too unwieldy, @Ngamer64 , feel free to get rid of them or say the word and I can do so.

Also, would you like me to add yo's missing numbers? If so, would it be okay to add the numbers for any leaderboard finish by a Guru in a year in which they did not officially enter the Guru? (I admit I have a bit of a vested interest in that question since I finished on the leaderboard for Rivalry Rumble.)

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hylianknight3 posted...

If so, would it be okay to add the numbers for any leaderboard finish by a Guru in a year in which they did not officially enter the Guru? (I admit I have a bit of a vested interest in that question since I finished on the leaderboard for Rivalry Rumble.)

Just to kind of echo this, is there anyway to see prior results? For me personally, there was a period of time when I entered brackets but was too lazy to submit to guru. I've been a lurker here for a long time.

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good stuff. I didn't enter in 2018 because I wanted to submit without reading the board at all that year, for some odd reason. I'd look better, but probably not much better, with one more data point!

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Top 100 booyaaaa!

Shame i didnt participate this year.

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I'm against adding in legacy scores after the fact. If you want those points counted, you have to enter officially each year (encourages participation)!


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Okay, makes sense!

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