Current Events > New estimates says the US will have around 60k deaths.

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/830664814/fauci-says-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-may-be-more-like-60-000-antibody-tests-on-way

That's much better than where we were a week ago. The idiots will say that this means it was overblown, no it means enough people weren't idiots. Think about it, even with these new estimates, hospitals across the nation talk about their job being like a war. Imagine what it would be like if we didn't do anything. This is a sign that enough Americans can come together for the greater good, not that we shouldn't trust science.

This will backfire because people will take it as a sign we beat the virus and open up too early. Say hello to wave 2 then

The best news we can hope for at this point. I hope people continue to stay home and be diligent.

---

this is less than the flu a few years ago

---

We are already close to 16,000 and seeing close to 2,000 per day. Many cities havent even peaked yet. having it stop completely in 3 weeks seems impossible to me unfortunately

---

Galcian posted...

this is less than the flu a few years ago

When did the flu have 60k deaths in a year recently?

---

but an anonymous person on the internet said it will be in the millions

i trust them more than some "expert"

---

the biggest thing is people with underlying conditions need to stay home and be safe

if you look at NYC stats (most robust stats we can get really...) you see a clear trend

84k cases

here are the deaths

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04092020-1.pdf

If you have an underlying, death rate is 3.7% once infected

No underlying = 0.09% once infected

Under 44 w or w/o underlying = 0.02%
Under 44 no underlying = 0.01%

could all change but so far the rule of thumb is if you have underlying conditions, stay safe

Trump's bold and decisive leadership stopped us from having 100k+ deaths

solosnake posted...

We are already close to 16,000 and seeing close to 2,000 per day. Many cities havent even peaked yet. having it stop completely in 3 weeks seems impossible to me unfortunately

This. Their math is way too optimistic.

---

-Starbucks- posted...

Trump's bold and decisive leadership stopped us from having 100k+ deaths

Lol no. His failure as a leader is why deaths are above 10k to begin with

CableZL posted...

When did the flu have 60k deaths in a year recently?

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/
flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

Here is tinyurl
https://tinyurl.com/yaxjvf2u

---

This is somewhat misinformation.

The estimate from the model is only based on the following factors:

-If the rest of the country that hasn't yet gone on lockdown does by next week
-If the entire country stays on lockdown until August

If those things happen, then the model they use estimates 60k deaths by August - not total. Hundreds of thousands of deaths is still the predicted final total. Additionally, multiple waves are expected.

Sewage posted...

no it means enough people weren't idiots.

Eh there must be some third explanation.

---

Daphneries39 posted...

-If the rest of the country that hasn't yet gone on lockdown does by next week
-If the entire country stays on lockdown until August

Neither of these are happening. Trump will declare victory and open us up in May

Daphneries39 posted...

-If the entire country stays on lockdown until August

Your correction is also somewhat misinformation. It's if the country stays on lockdown through May.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Sweet only 15x as many dead Americans as 9/11 and only 15 million lost jobs. Let's throw a celebration for how well Donald Trump handled this

---

Galcian posted...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/
flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

Here is tinyurl
https://tinyurl.com/yaxjvf2u

1. That was the worst since 1976
2. We didnt take drastic measures to slow the spread and life was pretty much normal. If we treated Corona like we did the flu(minus the vaccine because we obviously dont have one yet) the death toll would be several to dozens of times worse in the end.

---

Nice, go us

---

Tenlaar posted...

Your correction is also somewhat misinformation. It's if the country stays on lockdown through May.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Ahh you are right. Anyhow, I highly doubt GOP governors and Trump are going to extend lockdowns another full month. They are incompetent. Trump said just yesterday that they will open the country back up by the beginning of May.

https://imgur.com/AiDnUFZ

---

If we didn't social distance, this would be several times worse.

Of course it will because they value the economy more than human life. Plus most people don't care about social distancing.

---

Romes187 posted...

the biggest thing is people with underlying conditions need to stay home and be safe

if you look at NYC stats (most robust stats we can get really...) you see a clear trend

84k cases

here are the deaths

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04092020-1.pdf

If you have an underlying, death rate is 3.7% once infected

No underlying = 0.09% once infected

Under 44 w or w/o underlying = 0.02%
Under 44 no underlying = 0.01%

could all change but so far the rule of thumb is if you have underlying conditions, stay safe

Sewage posted...

The idiots will say that this means it was overblown, no it means enough people weren't idiots.

No matter what theres idiots on all sides and theyll find a way to complain about everything. Any deaths over 0 is awful, its nobodies fault, and thats about all that should be said.

---

This seems a way too optimistic take on how it has been going.

---

pikachupwnage posted...

1. That was the worst since 1976
2. We didnt take drastic measures to slow the spread and life was pretty much normal. If we treated Corona like we did the flu(minus the vaccine because we obviously dont have one yet) the death toll would be several to dozens of times worse in the end.

That and that's 80k deaths over the course of a year, whereas this is talking about 60k COVID-19 deaths over the course of a few months.

---

Galcian posted...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/
flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

Here is tinyurl
https://tinyurl.com/yaxjvf2u

Oh...lets compare a full year worth of cases compared to 2-3 months where are people taking refuge in their homes. Dont you have some online 6th grade course to go back to?

---

monkmith posted...

https://imgur.com/AiDnUFZ

Why is short term followed by nothing worse than always doing nothing?

---

Anteaterking posted...

Why is short term followed by nothing worse than always doing nothing?

its meant to show the futility of a token response. dont read more into it then that, its a fucking comic.

---

The US could be over 20k deaths by end of day tomorrow. This is a ridiculous report.
---