Board 8 > Coronavirus topic 7: Biohazard

(+) Yeah! (+)

Virginia has been pretty stable in virtually every category over the last 10 days. Just a plateau of 500-800 new cases daily (which means virtually nothing as far as understanding spread in the state), hospitalizations have been between 70-110 daily and deaths have been between 20-50 daily. Hopefully the hospitalization numbers decline soon.

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Okay @v_charon you win I will follow the law and wear one of the appropriate masks



You happy now

WHO getting called out for relatively sensationalizing things they see and/or making wrong statements.

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Corrik7 posted...

WHO getting called out for relatively sensationalizing things they see and/or making wrong statements.

I'm not sure how today's headlines went so crazy.

Because todays news that "no evidence coronavirus antibodies give immunity" could also be stated "no evidence coronavirus antibodies don't give immunity".

There simply hasn't been enough time to have data one way or another. We don't know how effective the antibodies are or, probably more importantly, how long the body maintains them.

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red13n posted...

I'm not sure how today's headlines went so crazy.

Because todays news that "no evidence coronavirus antibodies give immunity" could also be stated "no evidence coronavirus antibodies don't give immunity".

There simply hasn't been enough time to have data one way or another. We don't know how effective the antibodies are or, probably more importantly, how long the body maintains them.

Studies speak against the WHO regarding it. This is also the same WHO that said there didn't appear to be human to human transmission when there already was evidence of it. And, also recommended against travel bans when it would have arguably made a huge difference.


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I'm pretty certain that's just an instance of bad public communication from the WHO. It is correct to say that there is not definitive evidence that coronavirus antibodies give immunity (and I believe that's what they meant), but there is some evidence to suggest that and a lot of reason to think it should be true based on what we know about other viruses. I think the really big open question is that if there is immunity (as is likely the case), how long does it last?

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I'm pretty certain that's just an instance of bad public communication from the WHO. It is correct to say that there is not definitive evidence that coronavirus antibodies give immunity (and I believe that's what they meant), but there is some evidence to suggest that and a lot of reason to think it should be true based on what we know about other viruses. I think the really big open question is that if their is immunity (as is likely the case), how long does it last?

Yeah, the Sweden study had 100% accuracy of antibodies with those that were confirmed infected and confirmed not I believe.

Also believe the South Korean study did relatively also and the study on the "re-infected" showed the virus couldn't multiply in those likely meaning it couldn't spread from them and was just weakened remnants being destroyed by antibodies.

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I think WHO is specifically afraid of the "immunity pass" concept. There's the possibility of antibodies not protecting people to a sufficient degree (very unlikely at this point) or not long enough (still plausible, but still unlikely) and if either of those are true then it could be catastrophic.

There's also the likelihood that any country creating immunity passes will see a surge of people intentionally getting themselves infected.

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red13n posted...

I'm not sure how today's headlines went so crazy.

Because todays news that "no evidence coronavirus antibodies give immunity" could also be stated "no evidence coronavirus antibodies don't give immunity".

There simply hasn't been enough time to have data one way or another. We don't know how effective the antibodies are or, probably more importantly, how long the body maintains them.

But if people just assume they're immune and aren't the results could be catastrophic.

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Esuriat posted...

Virginia has been pretty stable in virtually every category over the last 10 days. Just a plateau of 500-800 new cases daily (which means virtually nothing as far as understanding spread in the state), hospitalizations have been between 70-110 daily and deaths have been between 20-50 daily. Hopefully the hospitalization numbers decline soon.

pretty much no one where i live in VA gives a shit anymore. the roads were empty for about 5 days and then there was less traffic than usual for a bit but my morning commute has returned to its normal bullshit all last week. pretty much anytime im out it seems like a normal day, just with lots of places closed.

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Old man neon getting tested today. I do split custody and so does my wife with her ex, so, this could really fuck things up

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iiaattgg posted...

pretty much no one where i live in VA gives a shit anymore. the roads were empty for about 5 days and then there was less traffic than usual for a bit but my morning commute has returned to its normal bullshit all last week. pretty much anytime im out it seems like a normal day, just with lots of places closed.

Pretty much the same here, except maybe even less of a dip in activity. The weather is getting warmer and a lot of people have gone a month or so without any noticeable personal threat (my county recently passed 100 confirmed cases) so they're getting a massive sense of ennui with the whole situation.

Virginia has still been lagging badly in testing so that side of the control doesn't give me much optimism either. So I say "hopefully hospitalizations will decline" but more likely is that Virginia coasts at this pace for a long time.

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iiaattgg posted...

pretty much no one where i live in VA gives a shit anymore. the roads were empty for about 5 days and then there was less traffic than usual for a bit but my morning commute has returned to its normal bullshit all last week. pretty much anytime im out it seems like a normal day, just with lots of places closed.

We're getting to that point here in KY. I went to the bank on Friday around 1:30 (late lunch), and I couldn't believe how much traffic was on the roads compared to the past few weeks. That's to say nothing of how clogged the bank drive-thru lanes were.

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neonreaper posted...

Old man neon getting tested today. I do split custody and so does my wife with her ex, so, this could really fuck things up

where did you manage to get a test?

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neonreaper posted...

Old man neon getting tested today. I do split custody and so does my wife with her ex, so, this could really fuck things up

I never even thought about people in this situation that sucks

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Ryokles posted...

where did you manage to get a test?

Lowell city of dreams

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gross. Out of all the places they could have done drive up tests idk why they would pick lowell

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I took a drive-through test on Friday. Hopefully, I'll get my results today.

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Esuriat posted...

I think WHO is specifically afraid of the "immunity pass" concept. There's the possibility of antibodies not protecting people to a sufficient degree (very unlikely at this point) or not long enough (still plausible, but still unlikely) and if either of those are true then it could be catastrophic.

There's also the likelihood that any country creating immunity passes will see a surge of people intentionally getting themselves infected.

There's also the fact that if the the false positive rate is comparable to the population-wide prevalence of the virus, the chances of someone actually not having had the virus despite having a positive antibody test are quite high.

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Ryokles posted...

gross. Out of all the places they could have done drive up tests idk why they would pick lowell

the line here is crazy. I have a 2pm appointment and got here 10 min early but I cant imagine I get tested before 3. Didnt know what to expect

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Esuriat posted...

Pretty much the same here, except maybe even less of a dip in activity. The weather is getting warmer and a lot of people have gone a month or so without any noticeable personal threat (my county recently passed 100 confirmed cases) so they're getting a massive sense of ennui with the whole situation.

Virginia has still been lagging badly in testing so that side of the control doesn't give me much optimism either. So I say "hopefully hospitalizations will decline" but more likely is that Virginia coasts at this pace for a long time.

Augh just noticed that VA is literally second to last among the states in tests per capita (ahead of only Kansas) at just over 9 tests per 1000 residents

Half of the states are below 13.5 per 1000 so they're not behind by orders of magnitude, but still

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Man, the missus's car has been sat outside unused for ages weeks because of lockdown and we have just been using mine to make the few trips we needed. Just drove it to the supermarket and when we've gone to restart it, battery is flat.

Presumably the weeks of not being used in Florida weather had drained the battery and then because it's still hot it didn't charge enough on the trip here so it doesn't have enough to start now. This sucks.

neonreaper posted...

the line here is crazy. I have a 2pm appointment and got here 10 min early but I cant imagine I get tested before 3. Didnt know what to expect

howd it go? Apparently Whittier health center in Boston is testing pretty much whoever and doing antibody tests. My moms friend just tested negative for the pcr but positive for igm antibodies though so who knows

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Ryokles posted...

howd it go? Apparently Whittier health center in Boston is testing pretty much whoever and doing antibody tests. My moms friend just tested negative for the pcr but positive for igm antibodies though so who knows

They could both be right if she'd had it and recovered, but it could also very well be a false positive. If the false positive rate is f, the true positive rate is t, and the probability a random person in the community has had the virus is p, the odds that someone is a true positive given a positive test is p*t/(p*t+(1-p)*f). Boston has about a 1% positive rate right now, but let's say it's actually 5%, that the true positive rate of the antibody test is 90%, and the false positive rate is 2%. That would give you a probability of only 70% of being a true positive given a positive test result. If the false positive rate is actually 5%, that drops to a bit under 50%. If the false positive rate was still 5% but only 1% of the population was infected, that drops below 25%.

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neonreaper posted...

the line here is crazy. I have a 2pm appointment and got here 10 min early but I cant imagine I get tested before 3. Didnt know what to expect

Did you go to LGH

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LordoftheMorons posted...

They could both be right if she'd had it and recovered, but it could also very well be a false positive. If the false positive rate is f, the true positive rate is t, and the probability a random person in the community has had the virus is p, the odds that someone is a true positive given a positive test is p*t/(p*t+(1-p)*f). Boston has about a 1% positive rate right now, but let's say it's actually 5%, that the true positive rate of the antibody test is 90%, and the false positive rate is 2%. That would give you a probability of only 70% of being a true positive given a positive test result. If the false positive rate is actually 5%, that drops to a bit under 50%. If the false positive rate was still 5% but only 1% of the population was infected, that drops below 25%.

well her boss who shes in close contact with tested positive and she shares a desk with him so Id be inclined to believe its a false negative I guess. Shes asymptomatic so far


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Oh yeah she definitely could actually have had it, but I think people should generally not act like they're 'safe' after a positive antibody test given the false positive issue (which is also one of the reasons these "immunity passport" things are a very bad idea imo, along with possibly incentivizing dumb people to deliberately get infected).

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greengravy294 posted...

Did you go to LGH

Nope they set up at the Showcase Cinema and it took 2 hours

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So the clinic my moms friend went to told her that she had cleared an infection previously but I just dont see how thats possible while she has only igm antibodies. They told her shes not contagious and Im like uhhhhhhhhh maybe she should call them back before she celebrates. Im only a chemistry tech though so what the hell do I know

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Ryokles posted...

So the clinic my moms friend went to told her that she had cleared an infection previously but I just dont see how thats possible while she has only igm antibodies. They told her shes not contagious and Im like uhhhhhhhhh maybe she should call them back before she celebrates. Im only a chemistry tech though so what the hell do I know

There can be a noninfectious convalescent period before IgG appears, but with the uncertain nature of the virus I agree.

I suppose T cell and B cell concentrations could be looked at as well but I don't think any range for that has been established with this virus. Especially given the T cell suppression that's been noticed with some patients with COVID-19.

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Over the weekend the positive case number in my county jumped by around 33% of our previous total.

Yikes.

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New York had a second round of antibody testing on a much larger selection (7,500 vs. 3,000 in the first round) and the positive rate increased to 14.9%. 24.7% for New York City.

wew

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i mean what we're basically finding out is that it spreads way easier than we expected but the rate of serious illness - and by that i'm including anything worse than actual mild - is low and of hospitalization even lower.

so the latter part's good but the former is definitely a reason to overreact because it can easily overburden a system. hopefully we can get a better idea to what triggers serious reactions.


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Wanglicious posted...

i mean what we're basically finding out is that it spreads way easier than we expected but the rate of serious illness - and by that i'm including anything worse than actual mild - is low and of hospitalization even lower.

so the latter part's good but the former is definitely a reason to overreact because it can easily overburden a system. hopefully we can get a better idea to what triggers serious reactions.

Yes, but it should flame out quickly in that scenario.

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American cases now exceed 1,000,000 according to worldometers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Coronavirus Cases: 1,000,888
Deaths: 56,323

Are there even that many ventilators available? If not, we may have to do something similar to Italy soon.

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PresidentEvil44 posted...

American cases now exceed 1,000,000 according to worldometers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Coronavirus Cases: 1,000,888
Deaths: 56,323

Are there even that many ventilators available? If not, we may have to do something similar to Italy soon.

What? There is only 14,000 people in ICUs across the country. Less than that on ventilators.

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Yeah our ventilator situation is pretty much fixed and wasn't a problem beyond the first two weeks or so.

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ventilators at this point are going to be about proper allocation more than total number since New York is on the downswing and California successfully prevented anything approaching critical mass.

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Kinglicious posted...

Yeah our ventilator situation is pretty much fixed and wasn't a problem beyond the first two weeks or so.

It probably was never an issue tbh. People panicked. When Cuomo asked for 30k ventilators and Trump said he didn't believe he really needed that many... Trump got flayed but he was absolutely right. Ventilators are a last resort tool in this. 14k is our highest ICU number since outbreak.

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Arent vents doing more harm than good in some patients too?

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Ryokles posted...

Arent vents doing more harm than good in some patients too?

If you're on a ventilator it is last resort because ventilators cause damage to your lungs.

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Corrik7 posted...

It probably was never an issue tbh. People panicked. When Cuomo asked for 30k ventilators and Trump said he didn't believe he really needed that many... Trump got flayed but he was absolutely right. Ventilators are a last resort tool in this. 14k is our highest ICU number since outbreak.

it was 40k.
and yeah, trump was totally right on saying that sounds like it's way too much. based on the other conferences we've seen, he probably didn't come to that conclusion on his own either, the rest of his team did. same goes for the PPE stuff - it was Cuomo who mentioned stuff getting stolen weeks before, it was other staffers noticing the excessive amount for NY, and he just commented on it.

what Cuomo said was we need 40k ventilators.
what he meant was that at the long term effect, 40k ventilators should be available.

they were not needed at that point and time, nowhere close, though he acted like it. which is why getting called out on the 2k or so in warehouses was fair game, since yeah you may not need them now... but if you've got 2k in storage why the fuck would you be demanding for literally tens of thousands more right now? start going through that supply, then get some, other states need it too. the "NY gets everything" attitude is one i'll take advantage of living here but i totally know is wrong in the face of 49 other states.

Ryokles posted...

Arent vents doing more harm than good in some patients too?

right now the way it's looking is...
minor or mild infection - various medications work, hydroxychloroquine included. i think that drug in particular works especially well on these cases, there's just a certain point where it peters off into not just ineffective but potentially harmful. this is probably tied to a mix of other factors - like age and other pre-existing conditions. more data is needed and more trials are still being done globally because it is effective, we just don't know when it stops being as effective.

severe or critical infection - if the patient is relatively young, consider hydroxychloroquine. but if it's serious enough/oxygen levels are too low, you've gotta get to the vents. thing is if your infection is serious enough to be on a ventilator you need to be on that shit and other treatments for a fucking month. it's a very death's door situation.

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neonreaper posted...

Nope they set up at the Showcase Cinema and it took 2 hours

Should have ordered some takeout from chilis while you waited bro.

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Back to work tomorrow yaaaaaay. Do I have to like isolate from my kid now or what because thats gonna be hard with a three month old

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Hydroxy doesn't work.

That said, we are now realizing how badly we overestimated ventilator numbers. That's why you see stuff about Trump sending them to other places. We are going to have like 100k ventilators sitting in storage if not more after this. Never even used.

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one thing that kind of bugs me...and I don't catch a lot of Presidential news briefings, maybe 1 every week. But every time I watch, without fail, there is a reporter that asks the President, in increasingly creative and confrontational ways, about his slow response to the pandemic. Look, I think we can all agree that the administration was initially slow to respond in several areas. Granted, almost every world leader was slow to respond, but let's table that and just admit that our own administration could have acted quicker in some areas.

What is the point though, other than just trying to stir up partisan bullshit, of continuing to repeat this line of questioning over and over again, every news briefing. I get it, the left's sole purpose is to make the administration look bad, and the right's sole purpose is to put the administration on a pedestal, but it just gets so tiring to see this endless chess match unfold even amidst a global pandemic. I would love to watch just one nonpartisan news briefing, where the administration doesn't lie or over exaggerate and where the press doesn't just sit there cherry picking anything bad they can find to try and make the administration look bad.

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I think if he just truthfully admitted his faults once instead of attacking the reporters personally they'd probably stop asking.
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Corrik7 posted...

Hydroxy doesn't work.

That said, we are now realizing how badly we overestimated ventilator numbers. That's why you see stuff about Trump sending them to other places. We are going to have like 100k ventilators sitting in storage if not more after this. Never even used.

40k for NY might have been high anyway, but the number we actually needed was heavily dependent on how quickly we were able to stop exponential growth. Given that cases were doubling every three days or so before the lockdowns, there was a ton of uncertainty about what peak hospital utilization would be. And if a bunch of other cities had gone the way of NYC, we definitely would have been fucked with ventilators.

Having a ton of ventilators that we don't end up using is not a bad thing. If we only make the number we expect to need on average, half the time we're going to be short, and the consequences for that (more people dying) is way worse than the consequence of having too many (we waste maybe a couple billion bucks tops). This is similar to the reasoning that Bill Gates gives for the fact that he's building factories for seven of the most promising vaccine candidates ahead of time: even in the best case scenario only one or two of them will be used, but the payoff of being able to end this a few months earlier is so high that the financial risk is just a rounding error.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tp-BrzUtMBM

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We probably have too much volume to do this now, but isolating infected people who don't live at home in, e.g., converted hotels is probably a very good idea (and is quite possibly a significant component of the success of Asian countries' responses):

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/28/21238456/centralized-isolation-coronavirus-hong-kong-korea

You could even make it voluntary; I'm guessing a pretty high fraction of people would do so to protect the people they live with.

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