Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1348

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BlAcK TuRtLe
04/20/20 1:26:10 PM
#101:


My biggest regret is not stickign with the Witcher upset against Skyrim. I had it in my bracket for the longest time and changed it at the last minute for god only knows what reason.

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plasmabeam
04/20/20 1:34:31 PM
#102:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
My biggest regret is not stickign with the Witcher upset against Skyrim. I had it in my bracket for the longest time and changed it at the last minute for god only knows what reason.

Last-minute jitters. I do the same thing almost every contest. Switching to Mario > Sephiroth in '03 and Melee > Brawl in '10 were among some of my worst.

This time around, the only stupid last-minute thing I did was taking Berseria > HK.

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pjbasis
04/20/20 1:38:50 PM
#103:


Would FFXV actually lose to monster hunter or is dqxi gonna do even worse against zelda

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swirIdude
04/20/20 1:41:07 PM
#104:


pjbasis posted...
Would FFXV actually lose to monster hunter or is dqxi gonna do even worse against zelda

The idea that Breath of the Wild could score 80% in all 4 of its matches in this division is absurd but possible.

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Leonhart4
04/20/20 1:41:10 PM
#105:


pjbasis posted...
Would FFXV actually lose to monster hunter or is dqxi gonna do even worse against zelda

I'd wager DQXI isn't that much stronger than FFXV, no. I'd say a tripling is the best case scenario for it. That's what it's projected to be if FFXV = Bravely Default.

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Ranticoot
04/20/20 1:41:14 PM
#106:


I have Witcher in the final so instead my "I want my bracket back" pick is not sticking to Odyssey > Ultimate

I think Odyssey looks a lot better between them so far and I almost went through with it on the last day

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CaptainOfCrush
04/20/20 1:52:17 PM
#107:


Odyssey looked better in Round 1, but we're now seeing evidence that those 85% fodder blowouts might not mean a whole lot. Mario came down to earth a bit in Round 2, so while I'm not supremely confident in Smash or anything, I wouldn't change my bracket if given the chance.

I've wanted a mulligan on taking Skyrim to the finals as soon as I saw what Witcher did to AC.

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Mac Arrowny
04/20/20 1:53:39 PM
#108:


Safer_777 posted...
No way God Of War doesn' tbeat Metroid Prime now.


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6153-best-game-ever-day-28-round-3-skyrim-vs-metroid-prime

would you also have GoW > Skyrim?
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plasmabeam
04/20/20 1:54:41 PM
#109:


My dumbest picks:

  • KH3 winning three matches. I actually had it winning the division for a while. I was banking on the idea that KH3 had hidden strength due to it being snubbed from the 2019 GotY polls. So much for its '05 Vincent potential.
  • Undertale > SK. I wanted to pull the trigger on SK, but I kept telling myself, "A lot of people on this site genuinely love and appreciate Undertale."
  • DKCTF > DMC5. The logical guy in me knew better. DKCTF is a 2D console platformer that costs $50 on Switch and never got much appreciation on Wii U.
  • Berseria > HK. Pure fanboyism pick.
  • Borderlands 2 > HZD. I knew B2 wouldn't be strong but I thought HZD would suffer because it only appeared on PS4 and isn't part of a series. Should've taken the 2017 GotY polls more seriously.


At the moment, I don't yet regret TLOU > Dark Souls. I'm well aware DS has been more impressive, but both games are still relatively untested, and I wouldn't rule out an upset. When I made my bracket, I kept thinking, "Dark Souls couldn't crack 30% on LttP, but I think TLOU could."

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plasmabeam
04/20/20 1:57:13 PM
#110:


CaptainOfCrush posted...
Odyssey looked better in Round 1, but we're now seeing evidence that those 85% fodder blowouts might not mean a whole lot. Mario came down to earth a bit in Round 2, so while I'm not supremely confident in Smash or anything, I wouldn't change my bracket if given the chance.

I've wanted a mulligan on taking Skyrim to the finals as soon as I saw what Witcher did to AC.

Another thing... If SSBU/SMO is tight, Smash has far better rally potential. Only way Odyssey wins is if it's somehow a 55-45 match in its favor.

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MechanicalWall
04/20/20 1:57:34 PM
#111:


I still don't think taking Undertale out of that four pack was dumb. Especially since it turned out all three games were pretty much even. Take antivotes out of the equation and Undertale squeaks by.

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Leonhart4
04/20/20 1:58:09 PM
#112:


My biggest regret is changing to GoW > Witcher 3 just to give me a unique upset pick to distinguish my bracket.

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ShortReplies
04/20/20 2:01:51 PM
#113:


Leonhart4 posted...
My biggest regret is changing to GoW > Witcher 3 just to give me a unique upset pick to distinguish my bracket.
why? its possible, God of War has many fans and very few haters while Witcher 3 has many fans but a lot of haters (people that are pissed that other people like it a lot) and i have proof because after a beef with some people they admitted that.
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Sharinnegan
04/20/20 2:12:43 PM
#114:


GoW > Witcher is definitely not happening

i dont even know if GoW is the strongest PS exclusive in the bracket.
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MechanicalWall
04/20/20 2:18:23 PM
#115:


Sharinnegan posted...
GoW > Witcher is definitely not happening

i dont even know if GoW is the strongest PS exclusive in the bracket.
What do you think could be stronger? Unless you're counting Persona 5 here

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Sharinnegan
04/20/20 2:24:13 PM
#116:


Persona 5 almost for sure, Bloodborne is a possibility too.

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Leonhart4
04/20/20 2:25:22 PM
#117:


I mean, I believed it was possible. I think GoW is still pretty strong. Witcher has just looked better.

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ShortReplies
04/20/20 2:27:04 PM
#118:


Sharinnegan posted...
GoW > Witcher is definitely not happening

i dont even know if GoW is the strongest PS exclusive in the bracket.
How are you so sure? can you make me to be as sure as you are?
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pjbasis
04/20/20 2:34:44 PM
#119:


GoW looks strong but it'll probably only barely beat New Vegas at best

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pjbasis
04/20/20 2:35:33 PM
#120:


plasmabeam posted...
"Dark Souls couldn't crack 30% on LttP, but I think TLOU could."

I think this is where you went wrong

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Sharinnegan
04/20/20 2:35:44 PM
#121:


Witcher's performances have put it it as a pretty clear number 2 behind only BoTW

it put up better numbers on Mass effect 3 than GoW did on Nioh

would you take Nioh to beat ME3?

the final spark of hope for every other game in the bracket is that there was some significant SFF involved in both of witcher 3's matches that made them look considerably worse than normal for those games.
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raptor36000
04/20/20 2:41:28 PM
#122:




plasmabeam posted...
"Dark Souls couldn't crack 30% on LttP, but I think TLOU could."

lol

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Leonhart4
04/20/20 2:42:31 PM
#123:


pjbasis posted...
GoW looks strong but it'll probably only barely beat New Vegas at best

Nah, I think it'll beat New Vegas pretty easily.

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ShortReplies
04/20/20 2:48:08 PM
#124:


Sharinnegan posted...
Witcher's performances have put it it as a pretty clear number 2 behind only BoTW

it put up better numbers on Mass effect 3 than GoW did on Nioh

would you take Nioh to beat ME3?

the final spark of hope for every other game in the bracket is that there was some significant SFF involved in both of witcher 3's matches that made them look considerably worse than normal for those games.
Yea ofcourse, Nioh will beat ME3 because it was made in Japan, and in this site Japan games have inflated votes, this is a known fact. ME3 will be annihilated by Nioh. I guess God of War is just too strong to be able to beat it.
Oh and its exclusive, notice how most games that are rated so high or do well are exclusives? exclusives also have inflated ratings here. Witcher 3 is not exclusive and is not made by Japan, so its surely going to struggle against God of War or even Mario galaxy 2.
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pjbasis
04/20/20 2:50:40 PM
#125:


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Leonhart4
04/20/20 2:51:04 PM
#126:


pjbasis posted...
People have a lot of faith in Nioh!

Who knew

Nah, I just don't think much of DS3.

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davidponte
04/20/20 2:56:36 PM
#127:


ShortReplies took God of War all the way and is now grasping at straws to convince himself that it's still the right pick.

It's okay to join the rest of us in the, "I've made a horrible mistake" camp, we all have at least one!

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Sens-Hangar_18
04/20/20 2:57:15 PM
#128:


I can't vote against this
https://youtu.be/ljenO4nkryk


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KamikazePotato
04/20/20 2:58:47 PM
#129:


pjbasis posted...
I think this is where you went wrong
It was true 5 years ago! Dark Souls and TLOU's fortunes have reversed since then.

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shane15
04/20/20 3:00:52 PM
#130:


The only chance for TLOU now is if someone gets Naughty Dog in on the action

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davidponte
04/20/20 3:06:53 PM
#131:


shane15 posted...
The only chance for TLOU now is if someone gets Naughty Dog in on the action

They're all too busy crunching 26 hour work days to be available.

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Lightning Strikes
04/20/20 3:14:49 PM
#132:


Yeah if anything all the news about the making of TLOU Part 2 might have a negative impact. On the other hand RDR2 looked really good so likely not.

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Sharinnegan
04/20/20 3:15:56 PM
#133:


i think 90% of the voters dont pay enough attention to the industry to be aware of news like those.
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LinkMarioSamus
04/20/20 3:57:34 PM
#134:


I just kind of picked Dark Souls to make a run as a sort of upset special for my bracket, and because I felt like SOMETHING weird was going to happen later in the contest. Why I'm not exactly sure. My gut pick to meet Zelda in the finals was Skyrim. I think I remembered how much of GOTD1 didn't seem to mesh well with the 2009 contest and figured something silly was going to happen in the interim.

Thus I figured "hey, there's a lot of backlash towards Bethesda now and Dark Souls has become this highly-respected and influential game. Maybe it can do it!" Probably helped that Dark Souls is the game in the bracket I haven't played that I'm most interested in, with Mass Effect 2 a somewhat close second, so maybe I'll take to it like I did SOTC.

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Yuri_LowelI
04/20/20 4:37:19 PM
#135:


pjbasis posted...
People have a lot of faith in Nioh!

Who knew

did they? Is that why 90% of the oracle picked isaac?


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Yuri_LowelI
04/20/20 4:40:09 PM
#136:


ShortReplies posted...
Yea ofcourse, Nioh will beat ME3 because it was made in Japan, and in this site Japan games have inflated votes, this is a known fact. ME3 will be annihilated by Nioh. I guess God of War is just too strong to be able to beat it.
Oh and its exclusive, notice how most games that are rated so high or do well are exclusives? exclusives also have inflated ratings here. Witcher 3 is not exclusive and is not made by Japan, so its surely going to struggle against God of War or even Mario galaxy 2.

this is Black Turtle level of analysis.

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#137
Post #137 was unavailable or deleted.
Advokaiser
04/20/20 5:33:24 PM
#138:


direshall posted...
Oh man FF15 is like the Brazil team in the 2014 world cup. When it gets exposed it's dirty.

Man, that's the most painful football match I've ever seen in my entire life.

Germany's cold-heartedness was so strong in that game, it made me doubt about Nazi Germany being totally eradicated from today.

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shane15
04/20/20 5:34:22 PM
#139:


Advokaiser posted...
Man, that's the most painful football match I've ever seen in my entire life.

Germany's cold-heartedness was so strong in that game, it made me doubt about Nazi Germany being totally eradicated from today.


It was a well deserved hammering tbh. Brazil had rode their luck to the semi final.

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Evillordexdeath
04/20/20 5:36:50 PM
#140:


I'd say the odds of New Vegas beating GoW are higher than the odds of GoW beating Witcher at this point.
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Advokaiser
04/20/20 5:39:32 PM
#141:


LinkMarioSamus posted...
I just kind of picked Dark Souls to make a run as a sort of upset special for my bracket, and because I felt like SOMETHING weird was going to happen later in the contest. Why I'm not exactly sure. My gut pick to meet Zelda in the finals was Skyrim. I think I remembered how much of GOTD1 didn't seem to mesh well with the 2009 contest and figured something silly was going to happen in the interim.

Thus I figured "hey, there's a lot of backlash towards Bethesda now and Dark Souls has become this highly-respected and influential game. Maybe it can do it!" Probably helped that Dark Souls is the game in the bracket I haven't played that I'm most interested in, with Mass Effect 2 a somewhat close second, so maybe I'll take to it like I did SOTC.

Wait How far did you take SotC to go in GotD1?

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Heropon_Riki
04/20/20 5:47:11 PM
#142:


davidponte posted...
ShortReplies took God of War all the way and is now grasping at straws to convince himself that it's still the right pick.

It's okay to join the rest of us in the, "I've made a horrible mistake" camp, we all have at least one!

I had Fortnite winning two rounds and Nier Automata losing to Divinity. I think those were my two most braindead decisions. The logic was "pfft, it's Fortnite, it's crazy popular even if some people hate it!" which was a severe underestimation of just how many people hate it, as well as a complete write-off of Horizon Zero Dawn which I thought was mostly just a mediocre BotW for people who didn't have a Switch but turns out to have quite a following.

Nier losing to Divinity is probably down to me currently playing Divinity and thinking it's extremely good, and assuming the rest of the gaming community thinks the same when my opinions are often very much at odds with gamefaqs at large. (I think Fates is the second best Fire Emblem and that Xenoblade X is the greatest game of all time, for starters)

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ctesjbuvf
04/20/20 6:12:58 PM
#143:


This contest continues tradition of every single contest to date having Legend of Zelda vs Final Fantasy. I decided to look at it all the matches ever between the two. Zelda won by far the most, but that's a given since Final Fantasy has a lot more mediocre characters in the field. Final Fantasy only had more victories in the 2005 Villains and 2013 Characters contests. Still fun to see.

2002:
Link > Sephiroth

2003:
Ganondorf > Tidus
Cloud > Link

2004 games:
ALttP > FFVI
FFVII > OoT

2004 characters:
Link > Cloud

2005 villains:
Sephiroth > Ganondorf

2005 characters:
Ganondorf > Yuna
Zelda > Vivi
Ganondorf > Auron
Link > Cloud
Link > Sephiroth

2006 series:
Zelda > Final Fantasy

2006 characters:
Vincent > Ganondorf
Zelda > Terra
Zelda > Aeris
Zelda > Yuna
Link > Cloud

2007:
Vincent > Zelda
Link > Vincent
Vincent > Zelda
Link > Vincent
Ganondorf > Yuna
Link > Vincent
Link > Sephiroth
Link > Sephiroth
Link > Cloud
Link > Cloud

2008:
Link > Zidane
Cloud > Midna
Link > Zidane
Cloud > Midna
Link > Zack
Vincent > Ganondorf
Link > Zack
Link > Cloud

2009:
FFVI > LA
OoT > FFIX
TP > FFXII
FFVI > LA
OoT > FFIX
OoT > FFVIII
FFVI > LA
ALttP > FFVI
OoT > FFVIII
ALttP > FFVI
FFVII > ALttP
OoT > FFX
FFVII > ALttP
OoT > FFX
ALttP > FFX
OoT > FFX
FFVII > ALttP
OoT > FFVII
OoT > FFVII

2010 characters:
Zelda > Jecht
Link > Cloud

2010 games:
MM > FFX

2011:
Link vs Ganondorf > Cloud vs Sephiroth

2013:
Sephiroth > Midna
Vivi > Ganondorf

2015:
ALttP > FFIV
MM > FFXII
FFVI > WW
OoT > FFIX

2018:
Zelda > Squall
Zelda > Aerith
Link > Cloud
Cloud > Zelda
Link > Cloud

2020:
BotW > FFXV

Four ways were a bit messy and could perhaps be formatted more nicely.

Edit: I didn't bother looking at years. There were at least one instance, probably more.

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pjbasis
04/20/20 6:23:19 PM
#144:


Years shouldn't count as much as we liked to think OoT = 1998 it obviously wasn't true.

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paulg235
04/20/20 6:25:51 PM
#145:


Has it been mentioned yet that this is (I believe) the first contest nothing Final Fantasy related won their division, as well as the first time nothing FF related made it to Round 4 of a contest? That really goes to show how badly Square Enix has messed up the series this past decade.

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_SecretSquirrel
04/20/20 6:31:48 PM
#146:


pjbasis posted...
Years shouldn't count as much as we liked to think OoT = 1998 it obviously wasn't true.
I guess if you wanted to go there, 1998 > 2001 was OoT > FFX, but that entire contest was the team of OoT and Pokemon Red/Blue in a handicap match steamrolling through everything. If you had stuck OoT in 1995, you might have had a decently balanced contest.

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Leonhart4
04/20/20 6:32:38 PM
#147:


_SecretSquirrel posted...
I guess if you wanted to go there, 1998 > 2001 was OoT > FFX, but that entire contest was the team of OoT and Pokemon Red/Blue in a handicap match steamrolling through everything. If you had stuck OoT in 1995, you might have had a decently balanced contest.

OoT/CT or the field? Who ya got?

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Team Rocket Elite
04/20/20 6:38:01 PM
#148:


Yeah, it's not a good idea to stick CT and OoT on the same team.
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Safer_777
04/20/20 6:38:40 PM
#149:


@paulg235 Yeah nice thing. As I write in my analysis the last FF game that everyone can agree it is damn good is FF 10 which came out like 20 years ago! on the other hand DQ games keep getting better and better and more beloved too!

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_SecretSquirrel
04/20/20 6:39:59 PM
#150:


Leonhart4 posted...
OoT/CT or the field? Who ya got?
Oh right, I forgot 95 had CT as its anchor.

96 would probably be a better choice, since Mario 64 was definitely a step below CT and FF7 in the adjacent years.

98, I still think would have a chance with just RBY, because it had some great depth beyond the headliners.

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