Board 8 > * GotD 2020 Guru Contest Stats & Discussion - Part Two *

(+) Yeah! (+)

ctesjbuvf posted...

With all due respect, I think it's extremely unlikely.

I would not mind though!

I don't think Persona 5 to the final is that unlikely, I'd argue it has as good of a chance as Skyrim or Dark Souls at this rate.

From a numbers perspective, Football has one of the best chances at winning for the same reason as COVID-19, they don't have a lot of competition for their upset pick. Even though The Witcher 3 is more likely to reach the final, there are a lot of people fighting for a slice of that pie.

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Wow, Top 8. Neat!

SpikeDragon showing nice supremacy as well.

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SuperNiceDog posted...

The 40 legends left

15 of whom are on the leaderboard (as well as 5 dead brackets)

Leaderboard is 40% guru.

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charmander6000 posted...

I don't think Persona 5 to the final is that unlikely, I'd argue it has as good of a chance as Skyrim or Dark Souls at this rate.

From a numbers perspective, Football has one of the best chances at winning for the same reason as COVID-19, they don't have a lot of competition for their upset pick. Even though The Witcher 3 is more likely to reach the final, there are a lot of people fighting for a slice of that pie.

Obviously picking a unique entrant to the final gives you more combinations, but using that to say they have the best chance of winning is just as obviously flawed.

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charmander6000 posted...

Both firefdr and NowItsAngeTime took Pokemon HGSS to the final. The big match between them will be Persona 5 vs. Portal 2. Should Portal 2 win then firefdr will win the guru, should Persona 5 win then NowItsAngeTime needs either Dark Souls > TLOU or for Persona 5 to defeat Witcher 3/GoW in the fifth round to win the guru.

Nice to know a silly upset pick that likely wont happen has me in the talkings of a potential Guru win even though it's like less than 1% happening at this point.

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All people that didn't took BOTW to the finals deserve a cookie.

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Well... part of it was my bias since Smash Ultimate is probably my favorite game ever now. And I believed too strongly in Everyone is here and Joker Hype and while Breath of the wild is popular, it being open world wouldnt be as appealing to the fanbase here who really likes the older style Zelda games

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So, to condense all of charmander's lists, what each remaining guru *generally* needs:

azuarc - W3>Skyrim, XBC>P4G, DS>TLOU, SSBU>SMO
JONALEON1 - W3>Skyrim, XBC>P4G, TLOU>DS
Gravy - W3>Skyrim, SMO>SSBU
Furious Fura - W3>Skyrim, P4G>XBC, ME2>RE2
Hbthebattle - W3>Skyrim, P4G>XBC, RE2>ME2, DS>TLOU
Glenn_and_Toad - W3>Skyrim, P4G>XBC, RE2>ME2, TLOU>DS
Ngamer - W3>DS, ME2>RE2
squexa - W3>DS, RE2>ME2, P5>Portal
kleenex - W3>DS, RE2>ME2, P4G>XBC
Whitelens - W3>HGSS, {XBC>P4G or TLOU>DS}
linkhatesganon - W3>HGSS, P4G>XBC, DS>TLOU

yoblazer - Skyrim>W3, no other upsets
Advokaiser - Skyrim>W3, ME2>RE2, TLOU>DS
AxemRedRanger - Skyrim>W3, RE2>ME2, TLOU>DS
hylianknight3 - Skyrim>W3, RE2>ME2, SSBU>SMO
ZeldaTPLink - Skyrim>W3/P5, RE2>ME2, SMO>SSBU
transcience - Skyrim>W3/P5, ME2>RE2, SMO>SSBU
DoctorJimmy - Skyrim>W3, P4G>XBC, DS>TLOU
Joelypoely - Skyrim>W3, P4G>XBC, TLOU>DS
LotM - Skyrim>P5, no other upsets (besides P4G or GoW)
charmander - Skyrim>P5, {RE2>ME2, SSBU>SMO} or {P4G>XBC, TLOU>DS}
Ringworm ties with - Skyrim>P5, ^^second set of brackets only^^
WiggumFan - Skyrim>P5, SMO>SSBU, GoW>W3, TLOU>DS
cloelea - Skyrim>Portal 2, RE2>ME2, GoW>W3, TLOU>DS, SSBU>SMO
Kotetsu - Skyrim>GoW, DS>TLOU, ME2>RE2
Kinjimuto - Skyrim>GoW, DS>TLOU, RE2>ME2

Big Bob - W3 wins
Jester69 - W3 wins, ME2>BotW, and a bit of help
SpikeDragon - BotW>HGSS in the finals, {XBC>P4G or TLOU>DS}
ZylotheWolf - BotW>HGSS in the finals, P4G>XBC, DS>TLOU
ffmasterjose - HGSS>BotW in the finals, RE2>ME2, Portal 2>P5 (sorta)
SeginusTemple - DS>SSBU in the finals
COVLD-19 - BotW>DS in the finals
Dr_Football - P5 in the finals
(SuperNiceDog ties with - ME2>RE2, XBC>P4G)
Agent M: SSBU>TLOU in the finals
Whiskey_Nick: SSBU>Skyrim in the finals
Xeybozn: SSBU>W3 in the finals
firefdr: SSBU>HGSS in the finals, Portal 2>P5
NowItsAngeTime: SSBU>HGSS in the finals, P5>Portal 2

Please note that this list is heavily simplified, and should not be taken as the final word. Use charmander's *actual* lists or the guru simulator sheet for the actual set of circumstances. I left out some weird niche results and exceptions for the sake of brevity.

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ctesjbuvf posted...

Obviously picking a unique entrant to the final gives you more combinations, but using that to say they have the best chance of winning is just as obviously flawed.

It's not about the number of combinations, it's how it fits with everything. No one has a good chance at winning. We still have 40 gurus remaining so the guru with the highest percent probably has a less than 20% chance at winning. BotW > Dark Souls may only have say a 10% chance of happening, but that also means COVlD-19 has a 10% chance of winning the guru. On the other hand, say BotW > Witcher 3 has a 50% chance of happening, it's a bigger pie, but it is also split between 11 gurus. Obviously those 11 won't split evenly and some will have a better chance than COVlD-19, but it shows that he and Dr_Football will be rated higher.

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I'm Winner

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charmander6000 posted...

I don't think Persona 5 to the final is that unlikely, I'd argue it has as good of a chance as Skyrim or Dark Souls at this rate.

From a numbers perspective, Football has one of the best chances at winning for the same reason as COVID-19, they don't have a lot of competition besides SuperNiceDog for their upset pick. Even though The Witcher 3 is more likely to reach the final, there are a lot of people fighting for a slice of that pie.

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azuarc posted...

So, to condense all of charmander's lists, what each remaining guru *generally* needs:

yoblazer - Skyrim>W3, no other upsets

Please note that this list is heavily simplified, and should not be taken as the final word. Use charmander's *actual* lists or the guru simulator sheet for the actual set of circumstances. I left out some weird niche results and exceptions for the sake of brevity.

I think Yoblazer's outcome seems pretty likely

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Bossman_Coolguy posted...

I'm Winner

you are?

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I'm honestly just happy to be alive at all at this late point in the contest.

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Funny how Witcher 3 going to the final match was the upset pick pre contest and now it is the other way around.

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Yeah, unless Skyrim somehow rSFFs Witcher, I don't have faith in Skyrim anymore.

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charmander6000 posted...

It's not about the number of combinations, it's how it fits with everything. No one has a good chance at winning. We still have 40 gurus remaining so the guru with the highest percent probably has a less than 20% chance at winning. BotW > Dark Souls may only have say a 10% chance of happening, but that also means COVlD-19 has a 10% chance of winning the guru. On the other hand, say BotW > Witcher 3 has a 50% chance of happening, it's a bigger pie, but it is also split between 11 gurus. Obviously those 11 won't split evenly and some will have a better chance than COVlD-19, but it shows that he and Dr_Football will be rated higher.

I appreciate you took the time to explain, but here it just comes down to that I give Persona significantly lower chances.

In any case, very nice work on this, it's really cool to see.

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Sorry, but...

I don't understand what each possibility for each user in charmander's analysis means. >_>

For example, mine:

charmander6000 posted...

Advokaiser (3)
TLOU
SMO/TLOU
GoW/TLOU

Does this mean TLOU can face-off and/or win in each of these scenarios?

And what does "cookie" mean (in this context)?

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Cookie means the favorites win.

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Well, yeah, but If the Cookie's already dead, does it mean that we have a "new" cookie (i.e. Witcher now favored against Skyrim)? or does it mean that the Cookie's original picks still stand (i.e. Skyrim > Witcher)?

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It's just the scenario of all of the Guru favored picks winning.

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there are some possibilities, e.g. Portal 2 to the finals, that are possible but exceedingly unlikely. things like that can leave you alive because no one else will gain on you despite your pick being wrong. some of those scenarios dont spell that out, but if everything goes sideways and you get Last of Us, you stand to benefit.

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Advokaiser posted...

I don't understand what each possibility for each user in charmander's analysis means. >_>

For example, mine:

Advokaiser (3)
TLOU
SMO/TLOU
GoW/TLOU

This is the list of "upset" picks that need to occur. He mapped out every single arrangement of contested matches, which on each of these read-outs is either 32 or 64 arrangements.

So in the event that the second semi is Skyrim>P5, you will win if:

• The Last of Us Wins over Dark Souls
• TLOU>DS and Odyssey beats Smash
• TLOU>DS and God of War beats Witcher 3

Any results not listed are assumed to be according to the currently-accepted favorites. Ergo, Xenoblade beating Persona 4.
Note that you do not win if both Odyssey AND God of War win because...

WiggumFan267 (1)

SMO/GoW/TLOU

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Furious Fura - W3>Skyrim, P4G>XBC, ME2>RE2

Of these I have the least confidence in P4G

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wigs here makin waves

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Top 5 most important matches in the remaining bracket:

5) RE2 vs ME2(ME2 barely favored, could go either way)
4) Smash vs Mario Oddysey(either one makes semis)
3) Dark Souls vs Skyrim(so close...)
2) Witcher 3/Persona 5 vs Dark Souls/Skyrim(whoever wins W3/P5 is favored)
1) Witcher 3 vs Persona 5(an epic showdown)

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Odds of winning the Guru(imo) at this point, little math done:

@Ngamer64 23%
@azuarc 19%
@Dr_Football 10%
@Dr_Football /SuperNiceDog 10%
COVID-19 8%
Yoblazer 8%
@transcience 7%
@hylianknight3 5%
@LordoftheMorons 5%
@charmander6000 3%

Someone else not listed: 2%

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SuperNiceDog posted...

Odds of winning the Guru(imo) at this point, little math done:

Assuming coinflips?


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azuarc posted...

Assuming coinflips?

Yea, I kinda just went with which game(1)Witcher 3, 2) Persona 5 3) Dark Souls 4) Skyrim) I think is the favorite to come out of the bottom. That ranking is my opinion

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Does anyone has ever won Guru 2 times? Plus when exactlly it started?

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No one has won it twice.

The first guru was the 2004 Games contest though that was limited to the stats topic.

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Okay thanks.

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@Dr_Football 's Tiebreaker is 1920423
Mine is 2500000

If we tied at the end, it would go based on the tiebreaker right?

Right now, I am looking better on that one?

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Contest resumes tonight! (Not so stealth bump)

Matches starting later today.

ME2/RE2 will have big implications in terms of increasing/decreasing your chances at winning.

For me, while it won't eliminate me, RE2 losing essentially makes it a matter of time (or everything else will have to go perfectly).

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Eliminations for Divisions 1 and 2:
Zelda/DQ11 doesn't make a difference in eliminations.

Elims for a Mass Effect 2 win:

• ZeldaTPLink by transience AND Advokaiser
• Hbthebattle by Furious Fura, azuarc, JONALEON1
• Glenn_and_Toad by JONALEON1
• cloelea by Joelypoely, Advokaiser
• KinjiMuto_3 by Kotetsu534
• AxemRedRanger by Joelypoely, Advokaiser
• squexa by Ngamer
• hylianknight3 by yoblazer, DoctorJimmy133, Joelypoely
• The Mana Sword by Ngamer

Elims for a Resident Evil 2 win:

• Ringworm by charmander6000
• Furious Fura by Hbthebattle, Glenn_and_Toad
• yoblazer by hylianknight3
• Kotetsu534 by KinjiMuto_3
• DoctorJimmy133 by hylianknight3
• Joelypoely by AxemRedRanger
• SuperNiceDog by Dr_Football
• Advokaiser by AxemRedRanger
• LordoftheMorons by charmander6000

Some good head to head stuff there.

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NewerShadow posted...

Eliminations for Divisions 1 and 2:
Zelda/DQ11 doesn't make a difference in eliminations.

Elims for a Mass Effect 2 win:
* ZeldaTPLink by transience AND Advokaiser
* Hbthebattle by Furious Fura, azuarc, JONALEON1
* Glenn_and_Toad by JONALEON1
* cloelea by Joelypoely, Advokaiser
* KinjiMuto_3 by Kotetsu534
* AxemRedRanger by Joelypoely, Advokaiser
* squexa by Ngamer
* hylianknight3 by yoblazer, DoctorJimmy133, Joelypoely
* The Mana Sword by Ngamer

Elims for a Resident Evil 2 win:
* Ringworm by charmander6000
* Furious Fura by Hbthebattle, Glenn_and_Toad
* yoblazer by hylianknight3
* Kotetsu534 by KinjiMuto_3
* DoctorJimmy133 by hylianknight3
* Joelypoely by AxemRedRanger
* SuperNiceDog by Dr_Football
* Advokaiser by AxemRedRanger
* LordoftheMorons by charmander6000

It's ON @Dr_Football

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@Ringworm , @Furious_Fura , Yoblazer, @Kotetsu534 , @DoctorJimmy133 , @Joelypoely , @Advokaiser , @LordoftheMorons "We're at war.. no wants to admit it but (we) are under attack"

this is WHERE WE FIGHT!!!!!! We will not go quietly into the night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lx9sPQpjgjU

SHEPARDDDDDD!!!!

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If this is my last day alive in the 2020 Guru contest... then... it was a pleasure serving with you all.

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come onnnnnnn ME2

gonna get eliminated by xenoblade later anyways but i want to live at least another day!

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I for one cannot wait to be eliminated by Xenoblade!

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Furious Fura posted...

come onnnnnnn ME2

gonna get eliminated by xenoblade later anyways but i want to live at least another day!

you and me Fura let's DO THIS LERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRROYYYY JENKINS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLyOj_QD4a4

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tomorrow's gonna be ugly

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SuperNiceDog posted...

you and me Fura let's DO THIS LERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRROYYYY JENKINS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLyOj_QD4a4

who's the leroy jenkins of the mass effect universe

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Furious Fura posted...

who's the leroy jenkins of the mass effect universe

not sure... maybe Shepard?

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there's literally a dude named Jenkins who charges in on the first mission and gets killed as an homage to that meme

so him
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My brain is broken, here are eliminations for Divisions 3+4 since I'm pretty sure ME2 has it out of reach (nearly 500 votes) at this point.

Elims for a SSB Ultimate+Persona 4 Golden win:

• Advokaiser by Joelypoely
• azuarc by Furious Fura
• Bossman_Coolguy by Ngamer, Furious Fura, azuarc, JONALEON1, DoctorJimmy133
• SuperNiceDog by Dr_Football
• transience by yoblazer, DoctorJimmy133, Joelypoely, Advokaiser
• WiggumFan267 by Kotetsu534, DoctorJimmy133, Joelypoely, Advokaiser
• yoblazer by DoctorJimmy133

Elims for a SSB Ultimate+Xenoblade Chronicles win:

• Bossman_Coolguy by Ngamer, Furious Fura, azuarc, JONALEON1, yoblazer
• charmander6000 by Advokaiser
• DoctorJimmy133 by yoblazer, Advokaiser
• Furious Fura by azuarc, JONALEON1
• Joelypoely by Advokaiser
• linkhatesganon by WhiteLens
• Ringworm by Advokaiser
• transience by yoblazer, DoctorJimmy133, Joelypoely, Advokaiser
• WiggumFan267 by Kotetsu534, Joelypoely, Advokaiser
• Zylothewolf by SpikeDragon

Elims for a Super Mario Odyssey+Persona 4 Golden win:

• Advokaiser by Joelypoely
• azuarc by Furious Fura
• firefdr by Zylothewolf, SpikeDragon
• NowItsAngeTime by Zylothewolf, SpikeDragon
• SuperNiceDog by Dr_Football
• Whiskey_Nick by Joelypoely, Advokaiser
• yoblazer by transience, DoctorJimmy133
• Xeybozn by Ngamer, Furious Fura, linkhatesganon, WhiteLens

Elims for a Super Mario Odyssey+Xenoblade Chronicles win:

• Bossman_Coolguy by azuarc, JONALEON1
• charmander6000 by Advokaiser
• DoctorJimmy133 by yoblazer, Advokaiser
• firefdr by Zylothewolf, SpikeDragon
• Furious Fura by azuarc, JONALEON1
• Joelypoely by Advokaiser
• linkhatesganon by WhiteLens
• NowItsAngeTime by Zylothewolf, SpikeDragon
• Ringworm by Advokaiser
• Whiskey_Nick by yoblazer, Joelypoely, Advokaiser
• Xeybozn by Ngamer, linkhatesganon, azuarc, JONALEON1, WhiteLens
• Zylothewolf by SpikeDragon

Weird that Smash losing wouldn't eliminate me, since I pretty much need it to upset BOTW in order to win?