Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1353

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1353-north-division-semifinal-link-vs-magus

Probably the most significant overperformance by a losing entrant in contest history. The repercussions of this match launched a thousand arguments and were felt for years afterward. Magus losing to literally a bag of sand isn't nearly as hilarious without this result.

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~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
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https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

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~*All the Match Pics*~
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~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA
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I remember that we talked on this board that Magus was the only one with a chance to beat Link. Good times...

I just realized that I was 15 then so it means Ive been on this board for more than half of my life. Damn Im old.

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It's funny how Magus came so far from that and still had an extremely impressive result.

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Also the origin of the original Noble Nine argument with that performance earning Magus the 9th spot in the 2003 X-Stats.

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Rockstar games have bad board votes

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Yay a Sega game in the top 16 and maybe even in the top 8. It about damn time!

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Uhhh, I'm not liking Portal 2 being 55-45 against a Rockstar game in the early vote.

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Oh shit RDR isn't dead in the water, it might actually have a shot.

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Never trust Rockstar in a close match.
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Zylothewolf posted...

Yay a Sega game in the top 16 and maybe even in the top 8. It about damn time!

what the hell are you smoking? Do no associate persona with sega

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Portal 2 pulling away again.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Do no associate persona with sega

why not

Sega owns it
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LeonhartFour posted...

Never trust Rockstar in a close match.

against a jrpg no. Portal 2 might be a different story

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Alright give me that good first update.

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GTAV already baited me with that better-than-expected early vote. Fool me once...

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LeonhartFour posted...

Portal 2 pulling away again.

why not

Sega owns it

nah atlus own it. Sega just publish it in the west.

i mean were grasping at straws here

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KamikazePotato posted...

GTAV already baited me with that better-than-expected early vote. Fool me once...

main difference is that GTAV was the bracket favorite on the board

RDR2 is not
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KamikazePotato posted...

GTAV already baited me with that better-than-expected early vote. Fool me once...

RDR2 could be stronger than GTAV....

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5 users fell off the Top 50. eaglesarebeasts, PerSonaPort, PlasmaKappa, DMoCTTA and Isiah_Zombie got at least one match wrong last time.
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I really hope RDR2 is able to pull this out. Portal is the one series I'll never understand the popularity for.

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What do people expect for the first big update?

i think persona ends up around 64%. Too many sonic and nintendo fanboys that will vote for sonic without even playing the gsmes

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I think this is 52/48 or 53/47 but not enough to flip. it could though if it has a brutal opening 5 minutes, but it didnt change much those last 3ish minutes.

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Yuri_LowelI posted...

nah atlus own it. Sega just publish it in the west.

i mean were grasping at straws here

Sega owns Atlus

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5 minute X-Stats:

Persona 5 50.00%
Sonic Mania 31.14%
Assassins Creed IV: Black Flag 28.94%
Sid Meiers Civilization V 25.21%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA 23.21%
Super Meat Boy 21.90%
Heavy Rain 21.71%
Slay the Spire 13.60%

Portal 2 50.00%
Red Dead Redemption 2 44.10%
Kingdom Hearts III 37.64%
Anima Crossing: New Leaf 37.39%
Tomb Raider 34.71%
Street Fighter V 25.04%
Disco Elysium 24.04%
Dying Light 16.41%
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I do appreciate that no matter how the final stats shake out, Heavy Rain will look awful

RIP Slay the Spire though

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LeonhartFour posted...

Kingdom Hearts III 37.64%
Anima Crossing: New Leaf 37.39%

Would anyone have taken this upset, especially since we knew AC had potential to rise as the contest was starting.

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Huh, mostly the same.

Not sure if it's more embarrassing that Super Meat Boy barely beats Heavy Rain or SFV barely beats Disco Elysium
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LamarJackson posted...

I really hope RDR2 is able to pull this out. Portal is the one series I'll never understand the popularity for.

it was an excellent novelty and premise. Portal 2 just built a more cohesive funny narrative behind it.

RDR2 is one of the best and the most boring games this gen

at times breathtaking and unparalleled . Other times laborious slow and painful to play

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Alright give me 100 more of those

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No shame in losing to Disco Elysium! Just because it's ultra weak here doesn't mean it should be!

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Ok so how much does P5 get on TW3

LeonhartFour posted...

Huh, mostly the same.

Not sure if it's more embarrassing that Super Meat Boy barely beats Heavy Rain or SFV barely beats Disco Elysium

i dont see how any of those are embarassing. Sfv beating anything is embarrassing. Awful awful game. Disco is highly regarded. I think it could take SFV


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ZeldaTPLink posted...

Ok so how much does P5 get on TW3

Stardew Valley vs. Black Flag: Who ya got? Because they're basically equal if P5 and Witcher 3 are equal.
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RDR2 just gained 1.4% well damn. Portal 2 still wins probably but this could get really close.

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ZeldaTPLink posted...

Ok so how much does P5 get on TW3

with or without rallies?

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LeonhartFour posted...

Stardew Valley vs. Black Flag: Who ya got? Because they're basically equal if P5 and Witcher 3 are equal.

I have no idea, and that's what fascinates me.

KamikazePotato posted...

No shame in losing to Disco Elysium! Just because it's ultra weak here doesn't mean it should be!

thats my point. Really respected game that pc only right now

meanwhile shitefighter V is the absoute pinnacle of what a cash grab mediocre fighter is

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If assume constant SMG2 and Civ 5, Witcher 3 gets like 52%.

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Lightning Strikes posted...

RDR2 just gained 1.4% well damn. Portal 2 still wins probably but this could get really close.

hopefully this puts a lid on the portal persona upset.

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48% had God of War, 65% had Witcher.

yes keep bringing that percentage down Sonic Mania
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Would anyone have taken this upset, especially since we knew AC had potential to rise as the contest was starting.

Who are you assuming is the favorite here? I would have thought of this as a tossup thanks to AC New Horizons .

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swirIdude posted...

Who are you assuming is the favorite here? I would have thought of this as a tossup thanks to AC New Horizons .

Kingdom Hearts III would definitely be my initial thought.

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Nah rise up Persona, I wanna see your quarterfinal match get debated!

It's tough for me to see Persona 5 beating Witcher 3. I do think Persona 5 has a much better shot than any other remaining game though.

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Division 5 X-Stats:

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 50.00%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 39.40%
Stardew Valley 28.30%
Mass Effect 3 21.60%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty 17.01%
Destiny 16.32%
Assassins Creed Odyssey 15.93%
Return of the Obra Dinn 10.05%

God of War 50.00%
Fallout: New Vegas 44.73%
Dark Souls III 41.19%
Nioh 25.54%
Dishonored 24.77%
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 22.20%
The Stanley Parable 18.43%
The Talos Principle 15.08%
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I have 129 points so far, is this a good score?

Portal 2 is just stuck at around 100 votes.
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I guess this might be the round where all the non-BotW monsters show some vulnerability.

(I still think Dark Souls is going to massacre MGSSV)

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Dark Souls could massacre MGS5 and I wouldn't blink

MGS5 vs Sonic Mania who ya got

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