Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

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charmander6000
05/01/20 10:02:18 AM
#252:


Yeah it pretty much cemented that Brawl was the favourite game everywhere on the internet except for niche places like smashboards.

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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 172/192
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ctesjbuvf
05/01/20 10:44:51 AM
#253:


You say failing to break 70% on Call of Duty as if it was viewed as an embarrassment at the time. It wasn't. Call of Duty was legit here then, even being the latest GotY.

Melee was favored here when looking at the first three round results, though everyone knew that it probably didn't matter much what was stronger indirectly.

I remember Allen had Pokmon DPP > Brawl lol

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LinkMarioSamus
05/01/20 11:08:31 AM
#254:


CoD hadn't exactly looked great that contest. Didn't Melee do only slightly better on Modern Warfare than Kingdom Hearts did against Modern Warfare 2?

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snake_5036
05/01/20 11:58:37 AM
#255:


Safer_777 posted...
Wait Brawl won back then? I thought Melee was the best Smash game of all time?
This was before people realized a poor man's kirby platforming mode with moon gravity and cutscenes that consist of (Nintendo characters stare at each other, nod, rush forward toward the enemy) isn't actually fun or well designed, and before people realized Brawl has bottom of the barrel, extremely unfun gameplay outside of the one terrible mode people cite as its sole redeeming feature, with some gameplay features literally just included to spit on the competitive community since Sakurai was mad that a game where you fight other people until a winner emerges evolved a competitive scene.

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WarThaNemesis2
05/01/20 12:00:19 PM
#256:


snake_5036 posted...
This was before people realized a poor man's kirby platforming mode with moon gravity and cutscenes that consist of (Nintendo characters stare at each other, nod, rush forward toward the enemy) isn't actually fun or well designed, and before people realized Brawl has bottom of the barrel, extremely unfun gameplay outside of the one terrible mode people cite as its sole redeeming feature, with some gameplay features literally just included to spit on the competitive community since Sakurai was mad that a game where you fight other people until a winner emerges evolved a competitive scene.

Spitting on the Melee community is an improvement on how the Melee community treats itself, to be fair.

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ctesjbuvf
05/01/20 12:06:48 PM
#257:


Or maybe people just, you know, liked the game. It's not that complicated.

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snake_5036
05/01/20 12:09:52 PM
#258:


Of course it's that complicated. Nothing else explains people enjoying the gameplay focused fighting series with the worst gameplay, you know!

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ctesjbuvf
05/01/20 12:23:38 PM
#259:


What happened was just that people thought the new games were an improvement. I know that it's popular to say that must mean bad things, but it just means Sakurai has done a good job at optimizing the games if the fanbase feels that way.

Brawl fans didn't just stop having fun magically. They knew those things and enjoyed playing regardless.

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KamikazePotato
05/01/20 1:32:26 PM
#260:


ctesjbuvf posted...
What happened was just that people thought the new games were an improvement.
Yeah, cause it had more characters. A lot of the Smash fanbase doesn't actually care about the gameplay of Smash very much and views it as more as a collection of Nintendo history. More stuff = better game. This is why every Smash game that isn't Melee is made completely irrelevant when the news one comes out, because the new one has More Stuff. Melee would wreck Brawl if they fought again today.

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Mac Arrowny
05/01/20 1:37:33 PM
#261:


That's why all the Byleth stuff feels so overblown. Maybe 1% of the playerbase was actually upset about her addition to the game.
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ctesjbuvf
05/01/20 1:58:47 PM
#262:


Sure, also because they're similar enough in gameplay, but just more smooth. Brawl in the other hand was a bugger chance from Melee.

But I agree with all that and would pick Melee without a doubt too.

Just saying it's not like people certainly realized it was a bad game. Not everyone thinks that.

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LinkMarioSamus
05/01/20 4:32:00 PM
#263:


I barely played Brawl at all after it was a year old.

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KamikazePotato
05/01/20 4:52:30 PM
#264:


ctesjbuvf posted...
Just saying it's not like people certainly realized it was a bad game. Not everyone thinks that.
No, but the games still don't matter anymore.

More than almost any other game series out there, Smash is a series that relies on spectacle. Characters are announced, trailers are released, hype is built. The mythos surrounding Smash is a bigger deal than Smash's actual gameplay. Melee is the exception to this because it carried the Gamecube on its back and has a lot of nostalgia attached to it, but the rest? They're not going to suddenly become fodder when new Smash games are released, but they're going to be weaker for sure. The moment that Smash 4 came out and brought almost everyone back while adding way more, Brawl's usefulness was outlived. The moment EVERYONE WAS HERE happened, Smash 4 became worth nothing. I mean, look at this shit:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4183-east-division-final-smash-bros-melee-vs-smash-bros-brawl
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6235-which-is-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7577-what-is-the-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game

The clean and nearly unbroken transfer of strength from Brawl -> Smash 4 -> Ultimate is absolutely bananas. No other series acts like this.

All of this is one of the biggest reasons why I think Ultimate is in trouble against Odyssey. I question how much people actually enjoy playing modern Smash, at least to the degree that its Game of the Year result and 1 Seed imply. They have fun with it, sure, but do they really love Smash, or just do they love the IDEA of Smash? I say this as someone who continues to play Ultimate to this day. I would bet money that a game as highly-regarded and universally loved as Odyssey was enjoyed more by the people who played it than Smash Ultimate was enjoyed by its own playerbase. Put Ultimate against, say, The Witcher 3, and it lives up to is full indirect strength potential because Nintendo fans will fall in line. But against another legitimately loved Nintendo game that it's not necessarily higher on the hierarchy than? I have serious doubts.

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Mac Arrowny
05/01/20 5:04:19 PM
#265:


KamikazePotato posted...

The clean and nearly unbroken transfer of strength from Brawl -> Smash 4 -> Ultimate is absolutely bananas. No other series acts like this.


I feel like annual sports series would probably act like this.

KamikazePotato posted...

All of this is one of the biggest reasons why I think Ultimate is in trouble against Odyssey. I question how much people actually enjoy playing modern Smash, at least to the degree that its Game of the Year result and 1 Seed imply. They have fun with it, sure, but do they really love Smash, or just do they love the IDEA of Smash?


This makes no sense at all.
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Ranticoot
05/01/20 5:06:27 PM
#266:


I find it interesting that 64 is almost even with Brawl in those later polls. That game definitely has its own fanbase and would probably do well in game contests. Shame about 2009!

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Leonhart4
05/01/20 5:09:10 PM
#267:


The main argument against Smash not being as big of a deal now is that we don't do multiplayer the way we used to as old people who don't have friends come over all the time anymore.

But it's a pretty big deal based on the viewership numbers whenever anything about it drops.

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pjbasis
05/01/20 5:10:56 PM
#268:


People who don't even play smash are interested in the reveals that's always been true.


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KamikazePotato
05/01/20 5:20:19 PM
#269:


Mac Arrowny posted...
This makes no sense at all.
Really? People fall in love with the Idea of things all the time. It's why games like Bioshock Infinite and Metal Gear Solid 4 take a while to fall in strength despite being way stronger on release. Hype builds expectations, and expectations build an idea of how good a game is supposed to be. It can be hard to let go of that idea even after the game comes out and ends up not living up to your expectations. You've already experienced the game in your mind through hype and discussion, and reality clashes with that.

Smash Bros is an absolute masterclass at building hype. Best in the business. Smash successfully presents itself as this major event in gaming; a Video Game Hall of Fame that brings together all sorts of characters from different games, series, and companies under one product. The trailers are incredible and it's got like 70 stages and 2304890918 songs and woah. Just looking at a list of all the characters in it gives you a feeling that no other series replicates.

But then the game comes out. Do people enjoy it? Of course. They enjoyed Ultimate a lot. But it's still just a fighting game. There may be 70 stages and 80 characters but you probably only play on/as a handful of them. The glitz and glamour of EVERYONE IS HERE wears off. It's hard to feel like you're playing the biggest celebration in gaming when you're lagging online. By releasing, Smash Bros is made mortal. I've spent a lot of time in the Smash community (I do not recommend this), and the very, very strong impression I get from it is that people enjoy talking about Smash more than playing Smash.

Ultimate would still kill most of this contest, and can still easily win its upcoming match, but it absolutely has to bring its A-game against Mario Odyssey, a game which is the consensus Game of the Year if not for Breath of the World. That game isn't just very well-liked; it's adored. I don't think Ultimate is at that level.

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transience
05/01/20 5:30:27 PM
#270:


Smash is such a weird thing. we're a hype site first and foremost, and we watch more than we play. Smash fits us well because you can enjoy Smash as a game without ever touching it, just following along with the reveals or whatever. I would think that makes Smash more potent, not less.

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MechanicalWall
05/01/20 5:32:14 PM
#271:


Most people on this site treat Smash as a doll case where they can appreciate the presence of their favorite characters on the roster and that's it.

For every one thread on the Ultimate board about the actual gameplay, there's fifty threads about the roster.

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transience
05/01/20 5:37:05 PM
#272:


compare it to the Odyssey board where there are maybe 10 threads from the last month.

Smash's biggest strength is that it's forever current.

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Mac Arrowny
05/01/20 5:40:04 PM
#273:


KamikazePotato posted...
By releasing, Smash Bros is made mortal. I've spent a lot of time in the Smash community (I do not recommend this), and the very, very strong impression I get from it is that people enjoy talking about Smash more than playing Smash.


There's your mistake. The Smash community doesn't represent many Smash players at all.
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KamikazePotato
05/01/20 5:42:01 PM
#274:


I kinda think it does. I'm not talking about competitive players only - casuals feel the same way, if not moreso.

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Leonhart4
05/01/20 5:45:11 PM
#275:


Yeah, Smash's biggest strength is that the latest iteration will always be relevant. How many people watched or played Odyssey in the last month compared to Ultimate?

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KamikazePotato
05/01/20 5:48:17 PM
#276:


Leonhart4 posted...
Yeah, Smash's biggest strength is that the latest iteration will always be relevant. How many people watched or played Odyssey in the last month compared to Ultimate?
The difference is that Smash is multiplayer while Odyssey is single-player. The best single-player games don't need updates to stick with you. The playthrough will remain with you as your own, special experience. Multiplayer games are different. They need constant updates or people stop caring. I wouldn't even be considering Ultimate > Odyssey if it wasn't for Smash DLC - I think it less gives Smash an advantage and more levels the playing field.

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Leonhart4
05/01/20 5:52:50 PM
#277:


Nah, multiplayer games don't need updates to have nostalgia and for people to remember them fondly. Smash is a very unique entity, which is what makes it the strongest multiplayer series by far.

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KamikazePotato
05/01/20 5:54:18 PM
#278:


I can't think of a multiplayer game other than Melee that retains its strength year-to-year, and that includes the other Smash games.

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ZeldaTPLink
05/01/20 5:54:45 PM
#279:


Leonhart4 posted...
Yeah, Smash's biggest strength is that the latest iteration will always be relevant. How many people watched or played Odyssey in the last month compared to Ultimate?

I mean how many people played Chrono Trigger last month?
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ctesjbuvf
05/01/20 5:55:52 PM
#280:


Maybe I'm reading your posts wrong, KP, but it sounds as if you're trying to convince me that Brawl and 4 became irrelevant. I never stated that and I agree with your primary points!

I just disgreed with snake that people suddenly realized the game was bad. Your point about irrelevance strengths this. It's not that people stopped liking it, there was simply reason to go back.

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KamikazePotato
05/01/20 5:57:16 PM
#281:


I was more using your sentence as a segue into my own ramblings!

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ctesjbuvf
05/01/20 6:01:34 PM
#282:


Yeah alright, well then we're on the same page!

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Leonhart4
05/01/20 6:02:04 PM
#283:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
I mean how many people played Chrono Trigger last month?

And Chrono Trigger's strength has been pretty variable in its contest appearances! That's the problem when you rely so much on nostalgia and player experience! Single player games have drastically risen and fallen between contest appearances just as much as multiplayer games have. Smash is just unique in that the fanbase clearly migrates to the next game.

KamikazePotato posted...
I can't think of a multiplayer game other than Melee that retains its strength year-to-year, and that includes the other Smash games.

Sure you can. Just none of them are as strong as Smash so we don't care as much.

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redrocket
05/01/20 6:33:37 PM
#285:


Goldeneye?

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Mac Arrowny
05/01/20 6:51:27 PM
#286:


Mario Kart 64, Super Mario Kart, Goldeneye, Final Fantasy XIV, and Smash 1 probably all retained a good deal of their strength, as far as non-Melee games go.
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Leonhart4
05/01/20 7:04:35 PM
#287:


I would say Street Fighter II as well.

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Master Moltar
05/02/20 1:34:21 AM
#288:


~*Posts from the Crew Archive*~

Division 1: Round 4 - Match 113 (1) Chrono Trigger vs. (3) Super Smash Bros. Melee

Moltars Analysis

Chrono Trigger
Round 1 - 85.85% vs Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal
Round 2 - 81.93% vs Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King
Round 3 - 65.52% vs Final Fantasy X

Super Smash Bros. Melee
Round 1 - 67.71% vs Portal
Round 2 - 60.03% vs Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal Version
Round 3 - 55.30% vs Kingdom Hearts II

Starting off Round 4 with 3 #BigFightFeel matches in a row!

This match seems less and less debatable as the contest goes on. Melee has looked more and more mortal as the contest progressed. while CT looks more and more immortal. Pretty much anyone is going to agree that getting 65% on FFX is more impressive than 55% on KH2.

Melee's only chance is if CT heavily overperformed last round due to SFF, and that's a big stretch. Melee would also need a rally to make up the strength gap and actually compete with CT, but CT is ready to defend itself from a rally (facebookfear).

Logically, CT should win this in the mid-50s, but I already know it will outdo expectations, so I'll preemptively aim in the high 50s (and then it'll outdo that and end up in the 60s oh god ct spare us)

Moltars Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Melee

Moltars Prediction: Chrono Trigger - 59%

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Transiences Analysis

Today is probably my most hyped contest day in I don't know how long. Chrono Trigger has been an absolute monster this year, quadrupling two fodder games and doubling FFX. This is CT's one true tentpole match this contest unless it makes the finals. Ratchet and Clank? Okay, that game is junk. DQ8? Okay, that's another RPG. FFX? There's definitely overlap there, though no one would reasonably call it SFF.

Chrono Trigger's performances have been contest-winning performances to the point where they're almost hard to believe. It has a chance today to put up or shut up against top level Nintendo competition. Melee is probably a top 10 game, but it only got 55% on Kingdom Hearts 2, a game that lost 57/43 to Twilight Princess in GOTD and lost narrowly to RE4 in 2009. FFX beat RE4 56/44. If you went off of stats, Chrono Trigger's going to double Melee with ease.

I.. have a really hard time seeing that. I mean, FF7 couldn't double Smash 4. At what point do you just have to stop looking at stats and invoke common sense?

If Chrono Trigger doubles Melee then it's the strongest game in the bracket. I'll be more conservative and give it around 58-60%. Melee has shown the ability to catch a rally and it probably stands out the best here: CT/Melee, FF6/FF7. Logically, CT wins this with about 55% but I'm a believer.

transience's prediction: Chrono Trigger with 60.01%

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Leonharts Analysis

This was shaping up to be an epic showdownuntil Chrono Trigger put up 65% on FFX and Melee could only manage 55% on KH2. At this point, Melees only (legitimate) hope is that Chrono Trigger laid some pretty hefty SFF on Final Fantasy X because I cant see Kingdom Hearts II being able to throttle Final Fantasy X, no matter how underwhelming its looked this contest.

Im betting on that CT performance just being legit though. All of its performances have lined up pretty well and seem to indicate that Chrono Trigger is once again a top 3 game on this site. Melee has probably never been as strong as a lot of people have thought/hoped/wished it was. After all, its never been that far removed from Final Fantasy X! With that being said, Im going to predict

Leonharts Vote: Chrono Trigger

Leonharts Prediction: Chrono Trigger with 65.53%

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Kleenexs Analysis

I could write a big long analysis of this match, but let's be realistic, this isn't debatable at this point. Melee has looked less than stellar against its three opponents thus far, while Chrono Trigger has put up three performances that have us questioning if even OoT could beat it. Chrono Trigger is going to win and it's not going to be close. A melee win here would surprise me more than almost every other result we've seen so far this contest.

Chrono Trigger with 59%

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Guests Analysis - MechanicalWall

After going through a series of mental gymnastics to try and make the Shadow of the Colossus upset sound plausible, and that upset not panning out, I'm not even gonna try and argue that Melee has a ghost of a chance to beat Chrono Trigger here.

Considering their Round 3 performances, the argument for Chrono Trigger is pretty simple. If FFX wrecks KHII the way many would've assumed pre-contest, then Chrono Trigger is going to absolutely flatten Melee. If FFX=KHII, then the match is going to be closer, but still a very clear and decisive victory for CT. And if you think that KHII > FFX, then it's still going to have to be by a pretty significant amount for Melee to take Chrono Trigger.

Personally, I can see the argument that FFX = KHII, or that maybe KHII is slightly better now. Of course, the only way to justify such a statment is to assume that the vastly superior Final Mix version of KHII finally being available in America really made a big difference for the game, as those who hated the simple combat are now faced with a difficulty setting that makes the most out of the system. That, or KHIII hype being real now that the game has some footage out. But going the remaster route means having to account for two different FFX remasters that include the International content. Such boosts are just very vague hypotheticals, and in both cases, they're more likely instances of current fans being the target audience rather than newcomers, unlike the SotC remaster. So in reality, FFX probably still beats KHII. Maybe by a slimmer margin than before, but that's all.

If it seems like I don't have much to say about Chrono Trigger and Melee themselves, that's because I don't. CT's godstomp of FFX speaks for itself, and Melee struggling with KHII only exposed the former. The only thing left to see is if SFF really did play a role in the CT vs. FFX; I don't think it did to any significant degree, though. If anything, the far more popular FFX should've made the SFF work to its advantage.

Oh, and there's a potential rally for Melee, too, but if it's big enough for it to actually beat Chrono Trigger, then the rest of the bracket is at risk. You wouldn't want that, now do you, potential rallier?

Prediction: Chrono Trigger, 61%

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Crew Consensus: ...
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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LeonhartFour
05/02/20 3:16:25 AM
#289:


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KamikazePotato
05/02/20 3:22:11 AM
#290:


Gonna need to see those Link/Draven writeups as long as we're dredging up rallies

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LinkMarioSamus
05/02/20 4:48:45 AM
#291:


KamikazePotato posted...
Really? People fall in love with the Idea of things all the time. It's why games like Bioshock Infinite and Metal Gear Solid 4 take a while to fall in strength despite being way stronger on release. Hype builds expectations, and expectations build an idea of how good a game is supposed to be. It can be hard to let go of that idea even after the game comes out and ends up not living up to your expectations. You've already experienced the game in your mind through hype and discussion, and reality clashes with that.

Smash Bros is an absolute masterclass at building hype. Best in the business. Smash successfully presents itself as this major event in gaming; a Video Game Hall of Fame that brings together all sorts of characters from different games, series, and companies under one product. The trailers are incredible and it's got like 70 stages and 2304890918 songs and woah. Just looking at a list of all the characters in it gives you a feeling that no other series replicates.

But then the game comes out. Do people enjoy it? Of course. They enjoyed Ultimate a lot. But it's still just a fighting game. There may be 70 stages and 80 characters but you probably only play on/as a handful of them. The glitz and glamour of EVERYONE IS HERE wears off. It's hard to feel like you're playing the biggest celebration in gaming when you're lagging online. By releasing, Smash Bros is made mortal. I've spent a lot of time in the Smash community (I do not recommend this), and the very, very strong impression I get from it is that people enjoy talking about Smash more than playing Smash.

Ultimate would still kill most of this contest, and can still easily win its upcoming match, but it absolutely has to bring its A-game against Mario Odyssey, a game which is the consensus Game of the Year if not for Breath of the World. That game isn't just very well-liked; it's adored. I don't think Ultimate is at that level.

I kind of get what you're going for here, but I have to imagine they like talking about Smash so much because they're so passionate about it, which can really only happen by actually playing the darn game.

I mean, MAYBE Melee nostalgia carries it through, but in that case why is Ultimate enjoying the series' best reception since?

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The Mana Sword
05/02/20 6:53:40 AM
#292:


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hylianknight3
05/02/20 8:04:22 AM
#293:


LinkMarioSamus posted...
actually playing the darn game

surprised pikachu dot jpeg

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Master Moltar
05/02/20 1:33:57 PM
#294:


~*Posts from the Crew Archive*~

Division Final: Round 3 - Match 109 (1) Link vs. (2) Commander Shepard vs. (3) Draven

Moltars Analysis

Link
Round 1 - 72.67% vs. Isaac and Tingle
Round 2 - 60.05% vs. Raiden and Yoshi

Link looking good

Shepard
Round 1 - 54.01% vs. Olimar and Kain
Round 2 - 41.60% vs. Aerith and Tharja

Just another nail in the FF7 coffin

Draven
Round 1 - 40.47% vs. Jak and Chie
Round 2 - 66.52% vs. MMX and Ryu

this guy barely beat jak and chie surely he won't get past-'oh'

Link got ~21000 votes in his round 1 match. Draven got 56397 votes in his round 2 match. As you can see, GameFAQs alone won't be able to vote Link over a rally-powered Draven.

There has been one other occasion where the internet rallied a character over Link, and it was http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2925, so it is definitely not impossible.

LoL fans seem to be more concentrated on Draven too, so unless Link gets a huge counter-rally (and with Zelda standing up to Charizard, that's not too farfetched), this match won't even be as close.

lol shepard

Moltars Prediction: Link: 32% - Shepard: 10% - Draven: 58%

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Lopens Analysis

Well, all you need to know here is the following:

1. Draven on his own outscored every match in the contest last round.
2. Despite Bacon's claims to the contrary, there are mounds of evidence here that the majority of Draven's votes were cheated, not rallied. I'm pretty sure no one actually wants me to go into detail on that but I would be happy to explain all the evidence on request!

Point is, you can rally your heart out and it just won't matter. You can downvote the rally topic and it won't matter. Draven's going to get in the neightborhood of 80k votes unless his votestuffer(s?) forget to show up, Link will get like 90% of GameFAQs votes here as the site bands together to attempt to stop Draven but it won't much matter because that's only going to get him 30k votes tops. I'll give counter rally attempts + the small portion of Draven's legit rallied votes backfiring to some degree some credit and say Link might be able to break 40k total.

Unless Link's counter-rallies luck into a vote stuffer or Bacon was waiting for a match where it actually matters to expose Draven's cheating (I actually give this a very small chance) then Link is screwed.

On the plus side we may see a return to well over 100k vote totals. It'll be nostalgic, even if like 50k of them are fake. I also feel like if Link gets rallied hard enough we may actually see some persistent vote totals. We'll see on that.

Lopen's prediction:
Draven - 62.90%
Link - 30.70%
Commander Shepard - 6.40%

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Leonharts Analysis

At midnight on a rainy night, they say if you stare at a blank computer screen when its turned off, youll see a poll. Little does Yu Narukami realize that hes about to get thrown into a battle for the GameFAQs World. He sits in front of his computer and waits to see if the rumors are true. The clock hits midnight, and Yus computer screen starts to flicker. Its a blurry image, but he can see a poll featuring Link/Commander Shepard/Draven. He tries to move the mouse to vote, but its not responding. Of course it isnt. The computers turned off, after all. Yu isnt sure how to cast his vote, so he reaches to tap the screen, but instead of feeling the resistance of hitting the screen, his hand goes straight into the monitor! Yu is shocked, but at the same time, hes curious about what might happen if he tries to go all the way in.

After a rough landing, Yu looks up to see two men struggling against a giant who is threatening to tear the very fabric of the world apart. Though valiant, these two are fighting a losing battle. When they hear him land in the GameFAQs World behind them, they run to his side. Yu recognizes the two as Link and Commander Shepard. If these two cant stop the Draven from destroying this place, what hope is there? Yet as Yu looks into Links eyes, he sees fierce determination. Though he says nothing, Link hands him a beautiful sword. Its the Master Sword. Why is Link giving this to him?

Shepard speaks for the both of them as he hands Yu a piece of his legendary N7 armor. You have to listen to me. Were doing everything we can, but this is a fight we cant win, not without help. You have the power of the Wild Card. I understand the importance of forming bonds with others. Your bonds are your true strength. Take these symbols of our power and add our strength to yours. Now go. Form every bond you can. Well need the power of all of the strongest characters in the GameFAQs World to even stand a chance against the Draven.

As Shepard finishes his speech, a voice rings in Yus mind. I am thou, and thou art I. Thou hast established a new bond. It brings thee closer to the truth. Thou shalt be blessed when creating Personas of the Justice Arcana and the Star Arcana. He feels a surge of power like hes never felt before. Today begins the battle to

TAKE

GameFAQS

BACK

Leonharts Vote: Commander Shepard

Leonharts Prediction:

Draven 60.00%
Link 35.00%
Commander Shepard 5.00%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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Master Moltar
05/02/20 1:34:00 PM
#295:


Kleenexs Analysis

Some people still think that Link has a shot here, but I'm not really seeing it. Just looking at the numbers from the past two rounds, it doesn't seem feasible. Link was able to pull in 17,000-21,000 votes in his night matches. This match is, of course, 24 hours, so based on the ratio of votes that day matches get to night matches, Link probably would have gotten somewhere in the range of 40,000-45,000 votes if those were were full day matches, and this was against fairly weak competition. Meanwhile, Draven got 50,000 or so rallied (and/or stuffed) votes in a 12-hour match. I know this isn't necessarily the best way to determine the outcome of a match, but I don't think there's any way you can twist these numbers and end up with a positive outcome for Link. The only way he stands a shot is if the LoL rallied votes just don't show up, or somehow he manages to out-rally/stuff Draven 2-to-1 (and not get caught)!

An through all this, Shepard is going to get destroyed and we won't be able to get an actual read on him. Which really is a shame.

Kleenex's Prediction
Link with 32.00%
Shepard with 11.00%
Draven with 47.00%

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Transiences Analysis

Here it is! The most anticipated match since the 2007 final, at the very least, and most likely the biggest disruption in 11 years of GameFAQs contest history. If this goes as everyone expects then it will turn this contest into the biggest joke. It'll also be very overdue.

Here are my assumptions on how this match will go:
Link fans (???) -- or more likely, GameFAQs contest fans -- are trying to fight back by counter-rallying. This is likely to go horribly, horribly wrong as most people will just laugh at someone trying to rally Link vs. a random League character. Plus it's just going to make the swarm even stronger. Someone needs to take the 'what now, Link?' picture and photoshop Draven's head on top of the carriers.

Draven probably starts out way stronger than before. Draven, at this point, is like L-Block was after he beat Snake and Sonic in 2007. He's suddenly going to be way stronger as he is now a symbol of disruption. I'm excited to see the opening five minutes and the massive Draven surge. If reddit gets there at the start, it could be absolutely nasty.

A few board 8ers probably lose their crap and start lashing out at our poor contest that has been left in shambles. ExTha is an easy prediction, but probably 2-3 others will do the same while at the same time try to claim that they're not mad. Meanwhile, there's going to be a swarm of morons trying to troll people. Should be fun to watch.

A 24 hour match. Here's the only real analysis I've got. This match pulls 20-30000 more 'legit' votes, and those votes are all going to favor Link. Does that matter? Probably not. Draven doubled and almost tripled the standard amount of votes in a 12 hour match, so what stops him from doing that for even longer? But if Draven's rally isn't as strong because of Labor Day or something, then who knows.

This should be good.

transience's prediction:

Draven with 53%

Link with 33%
Shepard with 14%

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KP's Analysis

It's time.

Draven - 99%
Link - 1%
Shepard - 0%

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Guests Analysis - Heroic Mario

So I told Moltar I would do the Guest writeup, but I kinda forgot about it! Sorry!

Anyway, I think Link has a better than decent shot here. For one, Link's a much bigger force overall than MMX or Ryu combined, he's also easier to rally for or steal rallied votes. For another, he'll have most of GameFAQs at his back, and certainly the majority of Board 8. Most of us aren't really invested enough to rally or do other things here, but there are probably a number of them who are. Yeah, sure, you can't compete against those Draven votes, but now everyone is kind of aware of Draven and Reddit and that whole deal. Allen is probably even watching the poll more closely than before. It's not gonna be a surprise or shock.

Yeah, Link probably does lose here, but I don't think he gets blown out quite like people think. And I don't think it's a completely lost cause. If anyone is gonna pull this out here, it'll be Link. He'll probably be stringer here than he has ever been, with more support than he's ever gotten. It's also a 24 hour match, so you get the full match to make something work.

LINK GUYS

Link - 46%
Draven 45%
Shepard - 9%

____________________________________________________________________________

Crew Consensus: Welcome to the Contest of Draven
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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Leonhart4
05/02/20 1:52:35 PM
#296:


Oh hey I distinctly remember writing that one

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transcience
05/02/20 2:37:36 PM
#297:


gimme some L-Block

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add the c and back away
iphonesience
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WarThaNemesis2
05/02/20 2:46:46 PM
#298:


transcience posted...
gimme some L-Block vs. Laharl


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Not a stinky alien. :(
Nintendo Switch Code: SW-5719-6555-8388
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Safer_777
05/02/20 4:30:48 PM
#299:


The Guest came to town. Man the crew overestimated Draven so much in this match or underestimated Link or both. But I remember that match because I wasn't working back then and I was almost the whole day here. Man things were crazy.

Exploits, vote stuffing, trolling, salting, DDO's attacks, crying, the Admin coming and tryting to explain what the Hell happened, we had everything!

Say what you want about rallies but at least this place is damn active during them!

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So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
Nice job Hylian Knight 3, you were better than me in the Guru Contest!
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charmander6000
05/02/20 4:49:17 PM
#300:


To be fair, the Draven we got in round 3 was much different than the one we got in round 2.

Round 2 Draven would have crushed Link.

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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 172/192
Today's Picks: LoZ: BotW and RE2
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Sharinnegan
05/02/20 5:03:16 PM
#301:


Draven was largely the same. he got only like 2k votes less.

its Link that massively boosted to getting Votals on par with what Draven was getting. (and would have won comfortably without the site going down on his strongest time)
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charmander6000
05/02/20 5:11:38 PM
#302:


Round 2 was a 12 hour match while round 3 was a 24 hour match.

It would have been a massacre.

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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 172/192
Today's Picks: LoZ: BotW and RE2
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