Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1355

(+) Yeah! (+)

ZeldaTPLink posted...

This is, of course, assuming a constant Bayonetta, which I think is fairly reasonable assumtption

See, this is where I disagree. Extrapolating through 2015 Bayonetta 2, Nier gets ~84.5% on 2015 Hearthstone, versus 81% on 2020 Hearthstone through Divinity II. Yes, you could argue that current Hearthstone is stronger thanks to the circumstances of its opponent, but that's a drastic difference regardless. Bayonetta 2 might be constant with a fair draw, and it might even be stronger (though Tropical Freeze makes me doubt that), but it's clearly weaker given its thoroughly unfair draw of SFF from Nier.

On the subject of Galaxy 2/Mass Effect, a Galaxy 2 win in the high 50s feels about right to me, for a ~10% swing. I do think Galaxy 2 has probably improved a bit with Nintendo's rising fortunes, but that's mostly on ME. As greatone mentioned, its ME series proxy appeal should make it particularly susceptible to the whole Andromeda fiasco and its resulting devaluation of the series name.

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MetalmindStats posted...

See, this is where I disagree. Extrapolating through 2015 Bayonetta 2, Nier gets ~84.5% on 2015 Hearthstone, versus 81% on 2020 Hearthstone through Divinity II. Yes, you could argue that current Hearthstone is stronger thanks to the circumstances of its opponent, but that's a drastic difference regardless. Bayonetta 2 might be constant with a fair draw, and it might even be stronger (though Tropical Freeze makes me doubt that), but it's clearly weaker given its thoroughly unfair draw of SFF from Nier.

On the subject of Galaxy 2/Mass Effect, a Galaxy 2 win in the high 50s feels about right to me, for a ~10% swing. I do think Galaxy 2 has probably improved a bit with Nintendo's rising fortunes, but that's mostly on ME. As greatone mentioned, its ME series proxy appeal should make it particularly susceptible to the whole Andromeda fiasco and its resulting devaluation of the series name.

I wouldn't go high 50s. I'd go 55/45 at best. I'd wager ME1 would hold its strength better than any game in the series. ME1 diehards are a devoted breed who cling to that game for being a "true" RPG.

I might go higher if Galaxy 2 had held up better to Witcher 3, but I don't see reason to believe its strength is that much greater now.

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I wish we'd seen Mass Effect 2 at peak strength. Run a Games Contest like six months before ME3 comes out and ME2 would annihilate all of Division 2.

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Yeah even now the game is strong.

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More X-Stats fun!

Dragon Quest XI = Persona 4 Golden = Persona 5:

Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age 50.00%
Persona 4 Golden - 50.00%
Persona 5 - 50.00%
Red Dead Redemption - 49.17%
Grand Theft Auto V - 48.93%
Monster Hunter: World 46.72%
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice 41.30%
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy 39.29%
Cuphead - 38.89%
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch 34.22%
Sonic Mania - 32.11%
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag - 28.94%
Bastion 28.09%
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series 26.83%
Sid Meier's Civilization V - 25.21%
XCOM 2 - 24.67%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA - 23.93%
Super Meat Boy - 22.58%
FTL: Faster Than Light - 22.23%
Heavy Rain - 21.71%
Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective - 20.78%
Baba Is You - 20.29%
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC 19.33%
Slay the Spire - 14.02%

Mass Effect 2 = Fallout: New Vegas:

God of War 50.00%
Mass Effect 2 - 44.73%
Fallout: New Vegas 44.73%
Dark Souls III 41.19%
Horizon Zero Dawn - 40.15%
Borderlands 2 - 36.07%
Resident Evil 7: biohazard - 33.15%
Fallout 4 - 29.63%
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night - 29.11%
Nioh 25.54%
Dishonored 24.77%
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 22.20%
The Stanley Parable 18.43%
VVVVVV - 16.76%
Fortnite - 15.32%
The Talos Principle 15.08%
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i refuse to believe sonic mania is weaker than ni no kuni

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ZenOfThunder posted...

i refuse to believe sonic mania is weaker than ni no kuni

yeah based on those numbers I'd say Persona 5 looks like the strongest of the three

and ME2 > New Vegas
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Spider-Man = Arkham City:

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 50.00%
The Last of Us - 40.65%
Marvels Spider-Man 36.39%
Batman: Arkham City - 36.39%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds 35.94%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 33.15%
Minecraft 30.82%
Diablo III - 29.85%
BioShock Infinite - 29.24%
Bayonetta 26.24%
Dead Space 2 21.88%
Terraria - 18.91%
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward - 18.50%
Tekken 7 17.02%
Dota 2 14.97%
Crusader Kings II - 14.76%

If Mario Odyssey doubles Mario Galaxy 2:

Super Mario Odyssey 50.00%
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 42.30%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 33.33%
Devil May Cry 5 28.69%
Shovel Knight 27.19%
Octopath Traveler 26.99%
Undertale 25.22%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze 24.44%
Stardew Valley - 23.94%
Dragons Dogma 19.36%
Mass Effect 3 - 18.27%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty - 14.39%
Mortal Kombat 11 14.03%
Destiny - 13.81%
Assassin's Creed Odyssey - 13.48%
Return of the Obra Dinn - 8.50%
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The spider = batman one actually seems very reasonable.

there is no way that dq11 is on P4G's level, let alone 5


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I don't think it's impossible for DQ11 to beat Red Dead Redemption.

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I think DQXI beats RDR and GTA easier than P4G

why? ITs more recent and has a bigger following currently

P4G has a higher ceiling but that ceiling is low due to Craptlus not porting the game.


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KamikazePotato posted...

I wish we'd seen Mass Effect 2 at peak strength. Run a Games Contest like six months before ME3 comes out and ME2 would annihilate all of Division 2.

Yeah I agree with this. ME2 was a beast post 2010.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game

Even here its strong.

also LOL Galaxy 2 looks awful here. Literally no other Nintendo games in the poll

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Sharinnegan posted...

wait...is the general consensus that GSC was stronger or weaker than 2015 Skyrim? the stats are all messed up due to undertale and melee stomping everything with rallies.

messed up because a ton of outside influence effected every match in that contest. Plus high votals

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lordjers posted...

Wow. Not much different from mine, even if I've got 1 or 2 results flipped.

Yeah I mean you can go either way on certain matches.

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Yuri_LowelI posted...

I think DQXI beats RDR and GTA easier than P4G

why? ITs more recent and has a bigger following currently

P4G has a higher ceiling but that ceiling is low due to Craptlus not porting the game.

Sorry, BT has cornered the market on unoriginal and unfunny nicknames. We don't need someone else trying to move in.

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Is that what I sound like? It's like Yuri is BT light, just with really awful opinions about everything

He's just the eastern version

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KamikazePotato posted...

I don't think it's impossible for DQ11 to beat Red Dead Redemption.

I do. RDR would put up better than 54% on MH.

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Has there been any talk about how the second chance contest will affect the voting trends?

Will this eliminate the start-of-match board vote, for example?

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White_Turtle posted...

Is that what I sound like? It's like Yuri is BT light, just with really awful opinions about everything

at least my opinions make sense.

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transience posted...

I do. RDR would put up better than 54% on MH.

based on what exactly

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White_Turtle posted...

Is that what I sound like? It's like Yuri is BT light, just with really awful opinions about everything

so basically just BT
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LeonhartFour posted...

so basically just BT

"Liking games based on their objective merits, and personal tastes makes it a bad opinion. Only following the B8 hivemind is the correct opinion" - Board 8's resident FF8 fanboy

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transience posted...

I do. RDR would put up better than 54% on MH.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6144-best-game-ever-day-24-round-2-shadow-of-the-colossus-vs-red

RDR isn't very good. It ranked 70th in the 2015 stats. It's only notable in this contest because of the weak field, and even then it's not a game that wins more than one match in most of these divisions. It looks okay now because the top half of Division 4 had a bunch of close matches but that just hides that Persona 4 Golden is by far the weakest Top 16 entrant we've got. Unless Persona 4 catches some weird bandwagon from having such a low pick rate to get this far, it's going to get absolutely exposed by Xenoblade next round.

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KamikazePotato posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6144-best-game-ever-day-24-round-2-shadow-of-the-colossus-vs-red

RDR isn't very good. It ranked 70th in the 2015 stats. It's only notable in this contest because of the weak field, and even then it's not a game that wins more than one match in most of these divisions. It looks okay now because the top half of Division 4 had a bunch of close matches but that just hides that Persona 4 Golden is by far the weakest Top 16 entrant we've got. Unless Persona 4 catches some weird bandwagon from having such a low pick rate to get this far, it's going to get absolutely exposed by Xenoblade next round.

We all know GTAV is overrated in the 2015 stats, and it's probably declined since then on top of that, but I'm seriously unconvinced it's by enough to make P4G the weakest Top 16 game this contest. Plus, as much as you're ragging on RDR's lack of strength, its 38% on MGS through SotC is actually a pretty respectable result by this contest's standards.

In contrast, what exactly has Dragon Quest XI done to merit respect - underperformed Suikoden II against a Monster Hunter game? Yes, World launched its franchise firmly into the mainstream, but how much does that really matter on GameFAQs? Blown out a weak indie? P4G also did that, with a much better percent against a game that's probably not substantially weaker than Bastion.

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MetalmindStats posted...

We all know GTAV is overrated in the 2015 stats, and it's probably declined since then on top of that, but I'm seriously unconvinced it's by enough to make P4G the weakest Top 16 game this contest.

GTA5's 2015 value no longer means anything. It had a chance to back up that number - one it likely achieved by overperforming on SMRPG, as its only other result before then was an iffy match against Shenmue - and failed. Considering that P4/RDR and Portal 2/RDR2 lined up very well, I'm more than willing to state that GTAV has fallen and the rest are pretty much the same in strength.

Yes, World launched its franchise firmly into the mainstream, but how much does that really matter on GameFAQs?

Significantly. There's probably like three times as many people on GameFAQs that played Monster Hunter World as the MH games on the 3DS.

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I noticed there is a "Your Badges" section on the homepage now. This is a problem because it pushes the "Second Chance Contest" section even farther down on the homepage, making it even less visible than before. Personally, I think it should be placed below the Featured Top 10 section.
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KamikazePotato posted...

one it likely achieved by overperforming on SMRPG, as its only other result before then was an iffy match against Shenmue

I think the explanation for why GTAV's 2015 x-stat value is inflated goes a little deeper than this. I do agree that an overperformance on Mario RPG was part of it, but only in the sense of a geolocation mismatch bolstering GTAV a bit relative to a draw against a more trends-neutral game of Mario RPG's strength. More importantly, I would contend that Mario RPG itself is too high, as the bandwagon it was running in its last two wins made it a totally different entity from the natural-strength Mario RPG that scored 54% on Oblivion and 57% on GTAV.

Anyways, hopefully next round will give us a full referendum or at least an eye test on the weakest Top 16 game. Unfortunately, that might be muddied up by DQXI's greater-than-normal overlap with BotW and P4G's possible bandwagon after knocking off two straight Rockstar games in close matches.

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MetalmindStats posted...

I think the explanation for why GTAV's 2015 x-stat value is inflated goes a little deeper than this. I do agree that an overperformance on Mario RPG was part of it, but only in the sense of a geolocation mismatch bolstering GTAV a bit relative to a draw against a more trends-neutral game of Mario RPG's strength. More importantly, I would contend that Mario RPG itself is too high, as the bandwagon it was running in its last two wins made it a totally different entity from the natural-strength Mario RPG that scored 54% on Oblivion and 57% on GTAV.

Anyways, hopefully next round will give us a full referendum or at least an eye test on the weakest Top 16 game. Unfortunately, that might be muddied up by DQXI's greater-than-normal overlap with BotW and P4G's possible bandwagon after knocking off two straight Rockstar games in close matches.

Also, I do think the break is going to screw with the first two matches, at the very least, since the vote totals were down the last time around. Granted, I'm more concerned about the ramifications towards the ME2/RE2 showdown than Breath of the Wild scoring a slightly lower percentage on Dragon Quest, but that still might screw with the eye test a bit.

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MetalmindStats posted...

I think the explanation for why GTAV's 2015 x-stat value is inflated goes a little deeper than this. I do agree that an overperformance on Mario RPG was part of it, but only in the sense of a geolocation mismatch bolstering GTAV a bit relative to a draw against a more trends-neutral game of Mario RPG's strength. More importantly, I would contend that Mario RPG itself is too high, as the bandwagon it was running in its last two wins made it a totally different entity from the natural-strength Mario RPG that scored 54% on Oblivion and 57% on GTAV.

I did the math on what would happen if Mario RPG did 3% worse against RE4 and 4% worse against MGS3 and IIRC it still had GTAV getting a comfy win over RDR. So yeah, GTAV fell since then. Not entirely sure why I didn't see that coming given the game has undergone serious hype backlash since.

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

"Liking games based on their objective merits, and personal tastes makes it a bad opinion. Only following the B8 hivemind is the correct opinion" - Board 8's resident FF8 fanboy

Yes because we know what a hive of FFVIII fanboyism Board 8 is

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#SquallAlwaysWins #SquallwaysSquall

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Yeah, just once I wish something other than FFVIII and it's characters would win around here. Something like Nintendo deserves a chance, too!

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Board 8 fanboyism basically breaks down like so:

• Non-standard "best Final Fantasy" games like 8/9
• Breath of the Wild is the "b3st g4m3 3vAr!!!" despite it being one of the worst Zeldas riddled with shit mechanics
• Any mainline Nintendo series, but never the entries in that series that are "too mainstream". Perfect example is the love for Galaxy/Odyssey as opposed to the actual quality Mario games 3/World/64. Or the fact that the board is stuck on Melee despite every subsequent Smash being better than the last in every objective way
• Obscure JRPG series like Tales, Ys, Dragon Warrior, Shadow Hearts, etc
• "Quirky and omg sooooo random" Japanese games like Katamari/Phoenix Wright/Doki Doki Literature Club

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Or the fact that the board is stuck on Melee despite every subsequent Smash being better than the last in every objective way

You're wrong on most of your points but this one just shows a lack of knowledge on the entire internet, which absolutely supports my theory that you live in the center of the Earth with how out of touch you are. Melee is massive amongst Smash fans, people get as, if not more, excited for Melee tournaments and whenever a big one is on Twitch the viewership is also massive.

Whenever a new Smash comes out people forget about the last one, but Melee is constant!

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This is yet another case of you people living in a strange echo chamber. Melee is "massive" amongst a small group of competitive Smash players that represent maybe 2% of the entire Smash playerbase. The other 98% moved on when Brawl came out.

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That's probably the case, but not to nearly the extent you say it is.

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Board 8 fanboyism basically breaks down like so:

* Non-standard "best Final Fantasy" games like 8/9
* Breath of the Wild is the "b3st g4m3 3vAr!!!" despite it being one of the worst Zeldas riddled with shit mechanics
* Any mainline Nintendo series, but never the entries in that series that are "too mainstream". Perfect example is the love for Galaxy/Odyssey as opposed to the actual quality Mario games 3/World/64. Or the fact that the board is stuck on Melee despite every subsequent Smash being better than the last in every objective way
* Obscure JRPG series like Tales, Ys, Dragon Warrior, Shadow Hearts, etc
* "Quirky and omg sooooo random" Japanese games like Katamari/Phoenix Wright/Doki Doki Literature Club

Most of those games have significant followings even outside this board. Final Fantasy IX especially. And I've heard far more good than bad about Breath of the Wild, albeit plenty of the latter but less so than some other Zelda games.

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So let me get it straight. There are 5 Smash games, the last one came out like 1.5 years ago, it has a ton of characters and an insane number of side characters(like spirits and assists), it has a ton of stages, I haven't seen anyone saying a bad thing about it, best selling fighthing game of all time yet somehow the community still believes that the 2nd one which came out 19 years ago is the best?
Okay what is the reason? Seems strange.

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I mean, BotW isnt blowing out this whole contest because its just a Board 8 phenomenon.

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Safer_777 posted...

So let me get it straight. There are 5 Smash games, the last one came out like 1.5 years ago, it has a ton of characters and an insane number of side characters(like spirits and assists), it has a ton of stages, I haven't seen anyone saying a bad thing about it, best selling fighthing game of all time yet somehow the community still believes that the 2nd one which came out 19 years ago is the best?
Okay what is the reason? Seems strange.

Competitive players.

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You mean like 5% of the people that play Smash? Maybe even less?

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Competitive players, loud dedicated Melee fans, and nostalgia goggles

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the competitive scene has adopted ultimate as the main game btw (of course the recent situation pretty much put the scene on ice for a while...)

Nostalgia is a strong force for some people. Same reason why most people's favourite Mario Kart is the first one they played.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Not entirely sure why I didn't see that coming given the game has undergone serious hype backlash since.

The game already underwent serious hype backlash by the time of the 2015 contest.

Personally I think it lost because there's a lesser known religious commandment that declares that GTA is never EVER allowed to win a debatable match. It's a phenomenon interwoven with the cosmos itself.

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Nostalgia? I mean come on. This is a series that keeps evolving but the core remains the same. You can't say for example that Mario Kart 1 is the best when ALL Mario Kart games that have come after keep adding stuff. I mean really.

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MechanicalWall posted...

The game already underwent serious hype backlash by the time of the 2015 contest.

Personally I think it lost because there's a lesser known religious commandment that declares that GTA is never EVER allowed to win a debatable match. It's a phenomenon interwoven with the cosmos itself.

Yeah but it was still very new then, so such an impact on its contest strength was fairly minimal compared to now.

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I love all the contradictory hoops BT jumps through thinking he's making brilliant points because he's more perceptive of gaming trends than all of us while picking Overwatch to beat Xenoblade and picking The Witness to beat anything.

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