Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 296: "Needless Suffering and Death"

(+) Yeah! (+)

I don't think it works that way though if I'm understanding LotM's post correctly.

This can only be used to reconstruct real location information if you also accumulate data from all the phones receiving the messages, which it doesn't seem like this app design does. (And yes, if one person could accumulate all of this data I expect they could perfectly reconstruct real location data despite the fact that the messages are randomly generated, but the app doesn't allow any one party to do that.)

edit: Responding to post 183
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Facebook and Twitter were mistakes though.

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Corrik7 posted...

It is not feasible and pretty much everyone knows it can't be here. If you are waiting for competent contact tracing, you are never reopening period. Our government can't even figure out who is alive or already dead to figure out who to send stimulus checks to for Christ sake.

I'm waiting for an effective strategy to maintain R < 1 through through reopening. Other countries have successfully done so using contact tracing, demonstrating that this is in fact possible. If there are other suggestions, I'm all ears! What's not acceptable is just giving up and unnecessarily allowing the virus to infect most of the population, resulting in millions of deaths.

I guess yeah it might be true that the Trump administration in particular is incapable of implementing this because they're a dumpster fire (so Congress might need to support states instead), but I reject the notion that the United States is intrinsically incapable of getting this under control when other countries have done so.

Kinglicious posted...

rejected and false.
it's not actually "gibberish."
location data will of course be needed/is created as a result of this.
of course it's telling you how many people Alice was with: there would be repeated signals between all their devices saying "this is a group." where she was, who she was with, and how many are all things you can figure out from this data.

what's being described here is basically another form of metadata. we already know metadata is actually real, identifying data.

so yeah, no thanks to these apps. burn 'em all.

By "gibberish" they mean that the info is encrypted, so someone can't decrypt it without your private key (or solving a math problem known to be computationally hard). The central database in principle has peoples' info, but not in plaintext so they can't actually make use of it.

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Social media is a disaster. Every idiot from this coast to that coast is a fucking genius and spouting their nonsense and sharing memes that are garbage.

I swear nothing makes me not want to a support a political side more than seeing idiots repost propaganda memes that are clearly fake as truth over and over.

Whether it is Occupy Democrats or Breitbart or whatever. It just makes me ashamed to be considered in the same group as either.


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Why is r < 1 so important to you? If our healthcare system isn't even at 50% stress then r = 1 or even slight ebbs and flows up and down shouldn't matter.

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RaidenGarai posted...

While it's a very, very small sample size, he has the votes of my wifes extended family, who have basically all been lifelong Republicans, as well as a family friends family who have also been lifelong Republicans. That's only like 15 people though. We can dream!

I hope you're right! I have family in Wisconsin too that are just as vocally pro-Trump as ever, if not more so. It could just be sample bias on my side, but the area they live in is so unbelievably pro-Trump when it was fairly split not all that long ago. Wisconsin feels like a totally different state than it was even 10 years ago. Essentially the only hope I have is if Biden nominates someone like Baldwin as VP.

Corrik7 posted...

Fear is a powerful drug, and Democrats have it firmly in their corner.

Unless Trump proves those fears unfounded, he might lose by double digits in the big three battlegrounds.

I could see that in Pennsylvania and maybe even Michigan. Not Wisconsin. If Biden wins Wisconsin, it would be by the absolute slimmest of margins.

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If Republicans think the everyone go back to work strategy is simply going to work with 25 million unemployed, they are going to get massacred, Suprak. It is a circumstance you aren't accounting for.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

By "gibberish" they mean that the info is encrypted, so someone can't decrypt it without your private key (or solving a math problem known to be computationally hard). The central database in principle has peoples' info, but not in plaintext so they can't actually make use of it.

Does there have to be a central database? Why can't each phone just store the list of messages they've received and sent locally?
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pyresword posted...

Does there have to be a central database? Why can't each phone just store the list of messages they've received and sent locally?

Not everyone has a cell phone.

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Corrik7 posted...

Why is r < 1 so important to you? If our healthcare system isn't even at 50% stress then r = 1 or even slight ebbs and flows up and down shouldn't matter.

If you can keep R exactly at 1 with a low enough baseline that's potentially not disastrous (but you don't have super precise control anyway). The point is that R > 1 is exponential growth and R < 1 is exponential decay. If cases are growing exponentially, they will eventually get to an unsustainable level.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

By "gibberish" they mean that the info is encrypted, so someone can't decrypt it without your private key (or solving a math problem known to be computationally hard). The central database in principle has peoples' info, but not in plaintext so they can't actually make use of it.

i know they mean encryption, that's why i say it's not gibberish. gibberish has no meaning, encrypted data does. what you're describing is a system that rolls metadata, location data, and health data into one. there's no way to really do this form of contact tracing without that at the bare minimum.

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pyresword posted...

Does there have to be a central database? Why can't each phone just store the list of messages they've received and sent locally?

Actually I'm not sure there needs to be unless I'm missing something (besides the central database needing to store the "I'm infected" messages so other people can grab them)! You could probably make things more computationally efficient with that info, but it should only be O(n^2) anyway so that doesn't matter.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

If you can keep R exactly at 1 with a low enough baseline that's potentially not disastrous (but you don't have super precise control anyway). The point is that R > 1 is exponential growth and R < 1 is exponential decay. If cases are growing exponentially, they will eventually get to an unsustainable level.

This is incorrect though. If r = 1.1 it doesn't stay that way indefinitely. As more get infected, the uninfected to spread decreases and the r0 can fall on its own.

Again, why is r < 1 so important. Keeping it not dramatic is important but ebb and flow around 1 when we aren't stressed seems quite smart even. The point of locking Down is to keep the hospitals not as breaking points, which we should have increased those levels from where they were already anyways.

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Less than twenty posts between pages 4 and 5. Hope you'te all having fun!

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Mega Mana posted...

Less than twenty posts between pages 4 and 5. Hope you'te all having fun!

you're missing the twist redemption arc of the year

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Mega Mana posted...

Less than twenty posts between pages 4 and 5. Hope you'te all having fun!

corrik is a democrat now just fyi

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If I'm reading it right the gibberish isn't encrypted, it's simply a randomly generated string. It doesn't record location data at all, and having full access to the data on any given phone gives you no information at all.

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Corrik7 posted...

This is incorrect though. If r = 1.1 it doesn't stay that way indefinitely. As more get infected, the uninfected to spread decreases and the r0 can fall on its own.

Again, why is r < 1 so important. Keeping it not dramatic is important but ebb and flow around 1 when we aren't stressed seems quite smart even. The point of locking Down is to keep the hospitals not as breaking points, which we should have increased those levels from where they were already anyways.

A lot of people need to be infected before herd immunity has an appreciable effect. Remember that you just get a multiplier of 1-f, where f is the fraction who are immune. For an R of 1.1 to fall to an effective R of 1, you need 1-1/1.1 ~ = 9% of the population to be infected (which is a lot!). Given that we are not much below 1 now, going back to "mostly normal" is very likely not going to just bring us up to 1.01 or even 1.1. We certainly cannot sustain being at an R of like 1.3 or something for very long before cases will blow up again.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

A lot of people need to be infected before herd immunity has an appreciable effect. Remember that you just get a multiplier of 1-f, where f is the fraction who are immune. For an R of 1.1 to fall to an effective R of 1, you need 1-1/1.1 ~ = 9% of the population to be infected (which is a lot!). Given that we are not much below 1 now, going back to "mostly normal" is very likely not going to just bring us up to 1.01 or even 1.1. We certainly cannot sustain being at an R of like 1.3 or something for very long before cases will blow up again.

We are likely at over 1% of the population infected as is or close to it.

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The system as I understand it would work something like this:

Assume there's two people, A and B. Each person's gibberish is simply their letter each time for simplicity's sake. A is infected, and posts their sent message log to the hospital. The hospital now has a a bunch of "A" messages in the list.
B downloads that list to see if they've heard any infected messages. B then learns that they were in contact with someone infected, because their phone received "A" as a message. They isolate, and later test positive. They submit their messages, and now the hospital has "A" and "B" in their list. However, because neither phone sent their list of messages received, the hospital has no way of learning that A infected B, or was even ever in contact with them.

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JeffreyRaze posted...

If I'm reading it right the gibberish isn't encrypted, it's simply a randomly generated string. It doesn't record location data at all, and having full access to the data on any given phone gives you no information at all.

Hmm actually rereading it you're right, in skimming I assumed that they were giving a layman's explanation of encryption but this protocol works:

1. Send random strings to people you pass; both parties store these strings (and the times they were sent/received), central database stores nothing
2. If you test positive, you have your app upload all of the random strings you sent out over the period you were likely infectious
3. Every day your app scans the database and checks if any of the strings match yours, and if so you get tested

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pyresword posted...

Does there have to be a central database? Why can't each phone just store the list of messages they've received and sent locally?

this is actually how i've seen it being proposed. the list of contacts is kept in the person's phone and never shared

the scary/central part is actually sharing your number after you know you're infected- because that part does actually need to go somewhere that everyone you've met can find it

i personally don't like the idea of having a broadcasted 'track my location' app on my phone, but that's how it would work

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banananor posted...

this is actually how i've seen it being proposed. the list of contacts is kept in the person's phone and never shared

the scary/central part is actually sharing your number after you know you're infected- because that part does actually need to go somewhere that everyone you've met can find it

i personally don't like the idea of having a broadcasted 'track my location' app on my phone, but that's how it would work

What youre sharing with the DB doesnt identify you, though. Theyre just random strings that people you passed have (and even they dont know which of their contacts has tested positive)

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Normally Im a big fan of VAs Senators, but this is a bad vote:

https://twitter.com/normative/status/1260625404651601929?s=21

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Also worth noting that there were multiple Democrats missing from the vote who would have been the deciding factor.

They deserve less blame than the Democrats who didn't vote for it.

But still!

Just bad.

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It's almost like Democrats didn't mind if it didn't pass.

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TotallyNotMI posted...

Also worth noting that there were multiple Democrats missing from the vote who would have been the deciding factor.

They deserve less blame than the Democrats who didn't vote for it.

But still!

Just bad.

Who wasn't there? And did any republicans break ranks?

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Suprak the Stud posted...

Who wasn't there? And did any republicans break ranks?

Patty Murray and Bernie were gone. A bunch Republicans broke ranks (there were 59 votes but they needed 60), though I wouldn't be surprised if Mitch could have flipped two of those Republicans if he needed to.

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Just like Republicans, Democrats aren't actually on your side, news at 11.

Here's the full list:
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=116&session=2&vote=00089

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Just like Republicans, Democrats aren't actually on your side, news at 11.

I mean, most of them were

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https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/05/bernie-sanders-absent-as-anti-surveillance-senate-amendment-fails.html

59-37 but still not enough.

One of the senators that didn't show up was...Sanders. Which is absolutely shocking to me because if he was there it passes.

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It wouldn't have passed. The Republicans would have had a senator or 2 switch their votes.

I know there isn't a lot we can do about some of those D senators, but Feinstein is someone that is hopefully on their last term and will be gone. Carper and Whitehouse are the only other two that I could see facing a successful primary. Like this is an egregiously bad vote.

Also I somehow didn't realize how weird it was until just now that there is a senator with the last name "Whitehouse".

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Also Soviet Russia believed in a strong surveillance state.

Corrik7 posted...

We are likely at over 1% of the population infected as is or close to it.

I would say in the 5% range for the country as a whole and in the 10-20% range for the hot spots. NYC alone was 21% 2 weeks ago.

Suprak the Stud posted...

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/05/bernie-sanders-absent-as-anti-surveillance-senate-amendment-fails.html

59-37 but still not enough.

One of the senators that didn't show up was...Sanders. Which is absolutely shocking to me because if he was there it passes.

This isn't actually true btw. Republicans were allowed to break ranks

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

This isn't actually true btw. Republicans were allowed to break ranks

Even if this is true and Rs adjust, it's no excuse for Bernie (or anyone else) missing the vote.

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You guys didn't vote for Bernie twice. He owes you nothing.

Yeah Im genuinely interested to hear why he wasnt there.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Even if this is true and Rs adjust, it's no excuse for Bernie (or anyone else) missing the vote.

I mean sure but his record on these things is good so I can't summon the care tbh

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Cyrlous posted...

people just LOVE lockdowns, amirite?

pretty sure nobody loves lockdowns. just because you think something is necessary doesn't mean you love it.

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Oh look the Republicans put Wisconsin into chaos, I'm so very surprised (sarcasm). I wonder how long until they try to make any popular vote position ceremonial, until they find a way to rig it like the state legislature so a minority of votes have absolute control.

It honestly would not surprise me if Republicans would be willing to see 10% or more die to protect thier investments. This virus will not kill that many, but I think I'm finally starting to understand the Republican stupidity here. It's not that they ignore reality; they are willing to let people suffer and die because thier thralls only care about what they see in person.

Looks like the FBI seized Senator Richard Burr's phone to investigate insider trading on Congressional knowledge. The STOCK Act should be repealed; members of Congress should be free to trade on insider knowledge as much as they like IMO. Or at least, senators should be entitled to a trial in the Senate instead of through the regular court system, just like the members of the House of Lords were entitled when we broke off from Britain!

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I mean sure but his record on these things is good so I can't summon the care tbh

The whole thing was likely a setup by the Rs (or moderate Ds) to make Bernie look bad. They knew he wouldn't be there, so they switched their votes to make it look like his absence made a difference.

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Does this vote even matter? It likely won't pass the house.

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red sox 777 posted...

Looks like the FBI seized Senator Richard Burr's phone to investigate insider trading on Congressional knowledge. The STOCK Act should be repealed; members of Congress should be free to trade on insider knowledge as much as they like IMO. Or at least, senators should be entitled to a trial in the Senate instead of through the regular court system, just like the members of the House of Lords were entitled when we broke off from Britain!

...you seriously just said they should be able to use private government information to make trades for personal gain, then said they should be subject to no scrutiny other than their own? What??

If he did nothing wrong, he did nothing wrong. He's been cooperating the whole time. However, to suggest there be essentially no oversight and to condone the Senate to use its knowledge for personal gain is insane.

Edit:
I think I may have missed sarcasm.

Been rewatching some of the Kavanaugh stuff because I've decided to torture myself with old dumb shit instead of current dumb shit.

Good lord this guy is such fucking embarrassment in every sense of the word.

Also Graham too, but everyone knows that.

what did you think of the calendar shit?

according to corrik, my stance that there's a difference between a calendar and a diary was "the funniest comment he ever read" and i "dug myself into a hole" because of it.

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The calender shit was obviously complete bullshit, and anybody taking it seriously should be completely ignored.

Motherfucker bawling his eyes out about calenders his dad read to him that he didn't start making until Brett was already a teenager, while his living dad is sitting behind him.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

The calender shit was obviously complete bullshit, and anybody taking it seriously should be completely ignored.

Motherfucker bawling his eyes out about calenders his dad read to him that he didn't start making until Brett was already a teenager, while his living dad is sitting behind him.

i hope corrik is paying attention. i guess this is "one of the funniest posts he ever read" too, right?

worth noting that this was totally the consensus reaction in this topic to the calendar bullshit at the time the hearing was happening, too - only the most hardcore of kavanaugh fans (like sephy) bought it.

i say something that has been said a gazillion times before and should be totally uncontroversial and corrik is all "LMFAO! this is the funniest shit i ever read! you dig yourself into a hole every time you speak!" fucking moron.

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