Board 8 > Behold, the Adjusted X-Stats for 2020!

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://pastebin.com/Pxt3zA8g

This one was rough. Lots of SFF, mini-rallies, and potential bandwagons abound. They're probably more reliable than the 2015 stats, but that's not saying much. Good for general use, but as always, take them with a grain of salt.

---

selling this post

---

Man Tropical Freeze sucks

---

Behold the power of Spider-Man and Sonic Mania

---

Can you discuss the logic behind your adjustments? I always find that stuff very interesting.

---

RE2 14th, these are good stats

---

I knew the soulslikes would be good! Even if they did end up losing all their debated matches.

---

PostContestUlti posted...

Can you discuss the logic behind your adjustments? I always find that stuff very interesting.

-Smash Ultimate, Mario Odyssey, and A Link Between Worlds were adjusted upwards based on the relation between Bayonetta and Bayonetta 2, Red Dead Redemption and Red Dead Redemption 2, Arkham City and Spider-Man, Octopath and Bravely Default, and the indies in that division compared to other indies in other divisions.

-Potential bandwagons were taken into account, specifically Persona 4, Xenoblade, and Witcher 3 in the finals. Xenoblade either got a bandwagon or didn't get SFFd by Smash because it didn't need to be adjusted for Division 4 to look alright.

-Rallies were penalized. None were huge but they overrated some guys. Some examples were Witcher 3 in the finals, Minecraft, Stardew Valley, Monster Hunter World, Persona 4 AND 5, and Bloodborne.

-Fire Emblem: Three Houses was adjusted for SFF by setting it a bit above Awakening and comparing Ori's placement to other indies.

-Witcher 3 SFFd, like, a lot of things. Some of the stats made a lot more sense once I bumped up Assassin's Creed Odyssey, Mass Effect 3, God of War, and Skyrim (very slightly).

-Specifically, Mass Effect 3 was adjusted by saying it gets 60/40d by ME2 indirectly and calling it a day.

-Last of Us got a bump due to the whole leak thing, which also made Arkham City make more sense. That value isn't going to be so reliable come next contest though!

-Bayonetta 2 probably got SFFd.

---

Man, Mario got screwed so hard. Two games were in the top 8 but the series failed to win a division, and potentially strong games like Maker/Maker 2, 3D World and Mini Mario & Friends: Amiibo Challenge got left out of the bracket due to series limitations.

Interesting how crazy close together 11-23 are. #11 (TLoU) is projected to get barely 53% against #23 (Bloodborne).

---

FTL exactly #100

I'll take it.

KamikazePotato posted...

-Bayonetta 2 probably got SFFd.

In retrospect, I have to ask, did it? We may have originally thought Bayo 2 had reason to increase due to being on the Switch now, but if GameFAQs mostly ignored Wii U games even if they made it to the Switch (why hello there, Tropical Freeze), it makes sense that it hasn't gained much ground at all.

---

Danganronpa 2 being so weak is so lol

---

Nanis23 posted...

Danganronpa 2 being so weak is so lol

it's literally the least surprising thing in the bracket other than BotW being the strongest game

---

LeonhartFour posted...

it's literally the least surprising thing in the bracket other than BotW being the strongest game

I mean, it can at least take solace in being one of the first turbo-fodders to get mathematically eliminated from last place thanks to being in the same fourpack as INSIDE.

---

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Man, Mario got screwed so hard. Two games were in the top 8 but the series failed to win a division, and potentially strong games like Maker/Maker 2, 3D World and Mini Mario & Friends: Amiibo Challenge got left out of the bracket due to series limitations.

somehow I dont think Amiibo Challenge missed the bracket due to a series limit
---

And Mario Maker didn't exactly set the world on fire in 2015, almost getting doubled by Fire Emblem: Awakening. When it looks like you'd drop a match with Deux Ex: HR based on a common opponent, we don't exactly need you back that quickly.

---

MoogleKupo141 posted...

somehow I dont think Amiibo Challenge missed the bracket due to a series limit

True, it probably got overlooked in the noms in favor of Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Tipping Stars.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

And Mario Maker didn't exactly set the world on fire in 2015, almost getting doubled by Fire Emblem: Awakening. When it looks like you'd drop a match with Deux Ex: HR based on a common opponent, we don't exactly need you back that quickly.

SMM was wayyyyy too new then. I picked against it with confidence back then for that reason. Also compare other 2015 releases in BGE 2015 to how they did in GotD 2 and youll see theres such a thing as being too new on this site.

---

and they were still a good bit stronger than Mario Maker

---

I think you are putting a lot of games few people care about on a pedestal. It would not at all surprise me if all of those games failed to be in the Top 128 of nominations.

---

Do people think Im being serious about the Mini Mario games >_>

---

KamikazePotato posted...

-Smash Ultimate, Mario Odyssey, and A Link Between Worlds were adjusted upwards based on the relation between Bayonetta and Bayonetta 2, Red Dead Redemption and Red Dead Redemption 2, Arkham City and Spider-Man, Octopath and Bravely Default, and the indies in that division compared to other indies in other divisions.

-Potential bandwagons were taken into account, specifically Persona 4, Xenoblade, and Witcher 3 in the finals. Xenoblade either got a bandwagon or didn't get SFFd by Smash because it didn't need to be adjusted for Division 4 to look alright.

-Rallies were penalized. None were huge but they overrated some guys. Some examples were Witcher 3 in the finals, Minecraft, Stardew Valley, Monster Hunter World, Persona 4 AND 5, and Bloodborne.

-Fire Emblem: Three Houses was adjusted for SFF by setting it a bit above Awakening and comparing Ori's placement to other indies.

-Witcher 3 SFFd, like, a lot of things. Some of the stats made a lot more sense once I bumped up Assassin's Creed Odyssey, Mass Effect 3, God of War, and Skyrim (very slightly).

-Specifically, Mass Effect 3 was adjusted by saying it gets 60/40d by ME2 indirectly and calling it a day.

-Last of Us got a bump due to the whole leak thing, which also made Arkham City make more sense. That value isn't going to be so reliable come next contest though!

-Bayonetta 2 probably got SFFd.

This all makes sense other than 3 Houses. That was anti-voting, not SFF. Still might make sense to adjust it, but it's not like those games ever accomplish anything in these things.

---

KamikazePotato posted...

-Rallies were penalized. None were huge but they overrated some guys. Some examples were ... Stardew Valley

I'm curious, why would you adjust Stardew Valley down for New Vegas' rallies, but not adjust Dark Souls III upwards thanks to the rallies causing New Vegas itself to overperform?

Otherwise, well, I applaud you for turning nothing into something!

---

As I'm aware, DS3 also received rally support in that match, as did Stardew.

---

KamikazePotato posted...

As I'm aware, DS3 also received rally support in that match, as did Stardew.

Stardew only had one 19-upvote rally - it was mostly propelled by spillover from other rallies. Dark Souls III did have a hentai rally that acquired quite a bit of traction, so IDK, maybe it doesn't need to be adjusted upwards even though New Vegas was clearly the rally beneficiary in that match.

---

Stardew Valley very clearly benefited from the rally battle between New Vegas and DS3.

---

_SecretSquirrel posted...

In retrospect, I have to ask, did it? We may have originally thought Bayo 2 had reason to increase due to being on the Switch now, but if GameFAQs mostly ignored Wii U games even if they made it to the Switch (why hello there, Tropical Freeze), it makes sense that it hasn't gained much ground at all.

Even with SFF adjusted, Bayonetta 2 looks not so great

Also just remembered I never adjusted Fallout 4...eeeeh...

---

Eh, I wouldn't worry too much about Bayo 2 or Fallout 4. The odds that we ever see either one of them again are pretty slim, I think.

---

Did you account for DOOM INSIDE ALL CAP-SFF ?
I have no clue who the bottom feeders are but I would vote INSIDE above Return of the Obra Dinn.

I'm liking DQXI at 17th!

---

i dunno if i missed this but are you guys planning to do adjusted stats for the century

---

ZenOfThunder posted...

i dunno if i missed this but are you guys planning to do adjusted stats for the century

I guess we could adjust Majora based on another game that was in 2015, but it'd be purely for the heck of it!

---

I would probably just shove these stats into the 2015 stats and set BotW = LTTP or something.

---

set BotW = Link and do an adjusted stats for characters and games combined

@Leonhart4 I know your wedding is coming up but I really need to know how Caim would do against INSIDE, please make this your new #1 priority

---

I kinda feel Witcher was overtweeked here, but these stats are always appreciated.

---

ZenOfThunder posted...

set BotW = Link and do an adjusted stats for characters and games combined

@Leonhart4 I know your wedding is coming up but I really need to know how Caim would do against INSIDE, please make this your new #1 priority

Caim would get 34.78% on INSIDE

---

thank you now you may be married in peace

please do not think of Caim on your big day

congrats by the way, i am very happy for you <3

---

Thanks, man. I appreciate it. I'm very excited about it.

---

LeonhartFour posted...

Stardew Valley very clearly benefited from the rally battle between New Vegas and DS3.

I agree that Stardew clearly benefited; my point was that the rally "battle" was very one-sided. I guess it doesn't really matter, though, since that's getting into the weeds about what to adjust for.

KamikazePotato posted...

I would probably just shove these stats into the 2015 stats and set BotW = LTTP or something.

I think you should adjust BotW v Majora based on the most recent console Zelda poll.

---

MetalmindStats posted...

I agree that Stardew clearly benefited; my point was that the rally "battle" was very one-sided. I guess it doesn't really matter, though, since that's getting into the weeds about what to adjust for.

I think you should adjust BotW v Majora based on the most recent console Zelda poll.

I don't think those are that useful. Like if you use polls like that iirc you'd have Yoshi and Luigi over Mario.

---

yeah SFF doesn't apply equally to everyone

OoT will SFF Majora harder than it SFFs BotW for instance

---

LeonhartFour posted...

yeah SFF doesn't apply equally to everyone

OoT will SFF Majora harder than it SFFs BotW for instance

In a direct contest match, sure, but I don't think that's necessarily true of a several-way PotD. Majora is about as distinct as a Zelda game with conventional Zelda gameplay can be, and its independent fanbase stemming from those characteristics likely allowed it to hold up about as well as the similarly distinct BotW. Of course, I know PotDs won't necessarily track with contest results, but what we saw there looks about right, and it's rather less arbitrary than setting BotW equal to LttP.

---

Eh, you can argue for it being distinct, but OoT would still beat it down with SFF even worse than BotW did.

POTDs like that should only be used to get a general sense of things, not to provide any specific data points.

---

I definitely don't trust a 10 option Zelda LFF poll to get much insight on MM vs BotW, especially with OoT in the poll.

Probably the best solution is to pick something from both 2015 and 2020, set it "constant" and then see if everything else passes the eye test.

---

The thing that stands out most to me as off here is the games immediately above Bloodborne. Have a hard time seeing GTA5 or RDR beating it.
---

Did Witcher get that big of a rally to go down from 44 to 41?

---

handsomeboy2012 posted...

Did Witcher get that big of a rally to go down from 44 to 41?

the final brought in the most votes of the contest by a pretty wide margin so yeah

plus there was probably some bandwagoning and anti-obvious winner voting going on as is often the case

---

Oh I just checked back, it did bring like 4000 more votes. I was under the impression that the reddit rallies all failed

---

handsomeboy2012 posted...

Oh I just checked back, it did bring like 4000 more votes. I was under the impression that the reddit rallies all failed

They didn't seem to do much, but I think a lot of people were curious about the Persona 2 guide controversy that happened at the same time, and I expect anyone who dropped into vote were more likely to vote Witcher 3, if not simply for the underdog factor.

---

"Adjusted" x-stats are typically far too prone to bias.

---

bwburke94 posted...

"Adjusted" x-stats are typically far too prone to bias.

I mean, no one is saying they're gospel! It's just attempting to make some sense of the weird stuff that happens.

---