Current Events > I unironically think Biden wins in the biggest landslide since Reagan

(+) Yeah! (+)

The_homelander posted...

dude come on. Trump CANT lose OH. Or GA.

He absolutely can if black and youth voters galvanize behind Biden. TONS of people have moved to Georgia from more expensive liberal states in the past 5-10 years. The state has been trending more and more blue just like Arizona.

Honestly I'd have Ohio less likely to be blue than Georgia at this point but Trump has done jackshit for industries in the rust belt states.

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LethalAffinity posted...

He absolutely can if black and youth voters galvanize behind Biden

You mean the 2 groups that are the most disinterested in Biden.

Abiz_ posted...

You mean the 2 groups that are the most disinterested in Biden.

Black voters are the reason Biden is the nominee. The South Carolina primary changed everything for his momentum.

And hatred for Trump, as I said, can clearly overrule disinterest in Biden. A lot hinges on Biden's VP as well... if he picks a progressive woman of color he is even more likely to court black/youth voters.

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I agree it's much easier to overthrow some of these rural places where not many people vote and cities as well if people galvanize. I'm guessing there will be cheating that goes on from both sides and it will go on forever or be swept under the rug. WHo knows though.

Abiz_ posted...

You mean the 2 groups that are the most disinterested in Biden.

They certainly prefer Biden over Trump. And prefer him more than they did Hillary...

Also, unlike Hillary Biden has the support of the demographics who actually vote. Seniors and working class folks.

I think a lot of these rural towns in the south will see a lot of overthrowing and racist breakouts. It could get bloody. The white voters in these towns some of them simply don't let black people vote.

LightBurn posted...

True, but Florida will just be icing for either party. If Biden gets Florida he'll have already won

The election is purely about Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Maybe throw North Carolina in there.

Yeah those states could go either way. Biden needs to find a way to encourage them to vote Trump out.

His VP choice is definitely going to be a big factor. Both Trump and Biden are up there in age and extremists are getting more confident to show out. We have to ask ourselves if we'd be okay with the dem VP or Pence as potential presidents.

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LethalAffinity posted...

The South Carolina primary changed everything for his momentum.

People were calling SC for Biden months before it happened. It was expected. Thing that changed everything is all the canadiates dropping out so Bernie had no argument this time.

KStateKing17 posted...

His VP choice is definitely going to be a big factor.

I'm really hoping for Duckworth. I know he's super pressured for a black woman, but I think Duckworth would be a fantastic VP. She's a literal war hero and not left enough to scare off moderates.

Abiz_ posted...

People were calling SC for Biden months before it happened. It was expected. Thing that changed everything is all the canadiates dropping out so Bernie had no argument this time.

They dropped out and coalesced behind him to give Biden the illusion of being a strong candidate and it worked.

Keep in mind I don't LIKE Biden myself and I don't think he is a strong candidate. Against any other competent Republican I think he'd lose but this is Trump we're talking about.

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I think black people in the south will vote this time. Voter suppression has been going on for a long time down there. Years of transplants too. And women. It's like field of dreams people will come ray, people will most definately come.

kg88222 posted...

I think black people in the south will vote this time. Voter suppression has been going on for a long time down there. Years of transplants too. And women. It's like field of dreams people will come ray, people will most definately come.

This won't even be an issue if mail-in voting happens on a national level

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LethalAffinity posted...

This won't even be an issue if mail-in voting happens on a national level

I feel like that's a pipe dream with a Trump slurper as Postmaster General.

LethalAffinity posted...

Keep in mind I don't LIKE Biden myself and I don't think he is a strong candidate. Against any other competent Republican I think he'd lose but this is Trump we're talking about.

I don't think anyone likes them. Specially if you listen to them and see what there past actions have done in the past. Wish the founding fathers put something in place that allowed the american people to disband parties and disqualify the people in the parties(by individual votes) from running for any office. All are choices are garabage. We will never get out of war in the middle east. We probably will never get a Universal healthcare program. I don't think our politicians give a damn that the school system is a failing more and more. It needs a new direction and goals instead of training people for factory work... my bad I'm ranting. So tired of both parties.

James Earl Jones is a republican and darth vader and really backwards and a conservative by todays measure. But he did say this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6U1p0hehtg

Can't wait for the debate. It probably won't happen. They have to keep hidden away, which is really sad.

Biden's campaign sank like a stone before SC. We were calling it dead in the water. He was the ever present plan B for the DNC but I didn't expect them to act so quickly and deliberately to vault him.

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LethalAffinity posted...

They dropped out and coalesced behind him to give Biden the illusion of being a strong candidate and it worked.

Illusion? Biden had been leading the polls for the entire primary except that period where Sanders was up for a few weeks in February.
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muchdran posted...

Can't wait for the debate. It probably won't happen. They have to keep hidden away, which is really sad.

Biden has already agreed and is looking forward to the standard 3 debates against Trump.

Trump was pushing for more debates using his own personal moderators. He's shook and scared to face Biden in a fair debate.

Ok I'll be fair and post a scenario where Trump can win now

https://i.imgur.com/YRZkGCg.png

-Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina in this scenario would experience significant voter suppression along with heavy Trumper turnout, giving him the edge in these states.
-Texas would be close but due to Biden's lagging polling with latinos, he doesn't quite edge Trump out and Trump maintains the state by 2-4%
-Arizona would be even closer than Texas and would be the 2020 equivalent of Florida from the 2000 election
-Wisconsin just so happens to be the rust belt state where Trump is polling the best so let's say he somehow wins it narrowly
-New Hampshire is a wild card that I could see potentially going for Trump given that Hillary only won by less than 3k votes and Gary Johnson voters made up 4% (30,000 votes) of the electorate. Quite a few of them could vote Trump, swinging the state in his favor.

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LethalAffinity posted...

Ok I'll be fair and post a scenario where Trump can win now

https://i.imgur.com/YRZkGCg.png

-Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina in this scenario would experience significant voter suppression along with heavy Trumper turnout, giving him the edge in these states.
-Texas would be close but due to Biden's lagging polling with latinos, he doesn't quite edge Trump out and Trump maintains the state by 2-4%
-Arizona would be even closer than Texas and would be the 2020 equivalent of Florida from the 2000 election
-New Hampshire is a wild card that I could see potentially going for Trump given that Hillary only won by less than 3k votes and Gary Johnson voters made up 4% (30,000 votes) of the electorate. Quite a few of them could vote Trump, swinging the state in his favor.

I don't even want to see the massive shitshow this country goes through if it's a 269-269 electoral tie. Your map with NH blue would be that.

She won by over 4% though.

If Trump loses NH in that scenario it's a tie lol

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Damn_Underscore posted...

She won by over 4% though.

If Trump loses NH in that scenario it's a tie lol

wat?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Hampshire

LightBurn posted...

I don't even want to see the massive shitshow this country goes through if it's a 269-269 electoral tie. Your map with NH blue would be that.

It's 2020, that scenario would only be appropriate for this year lol

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Oh, my bad I was looking at Gary Johnson's vote rather than the margin.

But I don't think people who voted for Gary Johnson will necessarily vote for Trump. Voting for Gary Johnson means you don't like either of the main two candidates, so Gary Johnson voters would vote for Biden or third party again in 2020

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LightBurn posted...

I don't even want to see the massive shitshow this country goes through if it's a 269-269 electoral tie. Your map with NH blue would be that.

In the event of an electoral tie, the House votes to select the president, but instead of each representative getting a vote, each state as a whole gets one vote.

If this happens, Trump gets reelected because there are more Republican states than Democratic ones, and American democracy would cease to exist.
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Damn_Underscore posted...

Oh, my bad I was looking at Gary Johnson's vote rather than the margin.

But I don't think people who voted for Gary Johnson will necessarily vote for Trump. Voting for Gary Johnson means you don't like either of the main two candidates, so Gary Johnson voters would vote for Biden or third party again in 2020

Eh you underestimate the stupidity of lolbertarians. This year the third party candidates are very weak and aren't gaining traction like Johnson/Stein did in 2016. I'd expect the margin voting for them will be much smaller this time as it often is with incumbent elections.

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I didn't even realize a tie is possible.

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UnholyMudcrab posted...

In the event of an electoral tie, the House votes to select the president, but instead of each representative getting a vote, each state as a whole gets one vote.

If this happens, Trump gets reelected because there are more Republican states than Democratic ones, and American democracy would cease to exist.

Yeah, it would be a goddamn shitshow

It's probably going to be a shit show regardless. That's the sad part. I expect to see legitament hair pulling going on.