Current Events > I unironically think Biden wins in the biggest landslide since Reagan

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://i.imgur.com/hnTCsNX.png

You heard it here first folks, Alaska of all states will tilt blue by less than half a percentage point. This is what happens when a president refuses to take a pandemic seriously and calls it a Democrat hoax. The alienated moderate Republicans as well as most independents will go Biden this time around.

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I don't have a very high degree of certainty but if I had to place a bet on one possible outcome, this is the most likely. Biden is on the path to a blowout and Trump needs something to change to have a plausible path to winning (e.g. economic turnaround or a sudden advancement in coronavirus treatment / vaccine).

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I think this kind of thinking is incredibly dangerous at this point, and also assumes a lot about Trump's course of action should he lose.

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Its entirely possible.

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I don't think most people actually care how well the president does his job. They just have a good feeling about him and he's on the right team

I think Trump has a solid chance to win, as ridiculous as it is

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If you're talking about popular vote then that wouldn't be surprising, but by electoral vote George Bush Sr had a bigger landslide

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Coloradough posted...

he's on the right team

I think Trump has a solid chance to win, as ridiculous as it is

Unfortunately, a lot of people think that way. He's on the right team, he's on the side that I don't hate as much.

Just believing he'll lose because you think he's not able to garner the electoral college's votes is pretty dumb. I mean, didn't Trump lose the popular vote but still win via the college?

It's just kinda pointless to think any of this is anything other than a coin flip at this point.
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All Biden has to do is keep being non-entity in this race. Trump isn't doing to well swinging at air.

woah
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I heard it somewhere first months ago.

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RebelElite791 posted...

I think this kind of thinking is incredibly dangerous at this point, and also assumes a lot about Trump's course of action should he lose.

I don't disagree with any of that... but I think if you don't concern yourself with voter complacency or over-compensating for those wild 2016 Clinton predictions, TC has a pretty defensible interpretation of the current polling data.

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Abiz_ posted...

All Biden has to do is keep being non-entity in this race. Trump isn't doing to well swinging at air.

Yep. Biden might lack the enthusiasm but I dont think that overrides the contempt for Trump.

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Biden should win very comfortably, but I can never discount the potential for Dems to fuck up.

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Why cant we have good presidents?

Only thing that might hurt Biden is the debates. As long as he doesn't go on some weird tangent(golden leg hairs). He should be fine even if what he says doesn't excite people or just seems to be a 1/4 a step better than Trump. I think Biden might be able to find a way out of the debates with Covid or if the debates are on Zoom or some bs. Make it so awkward that people can't tolerate to watch.

I will never get how Florida has veered so right.

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Coloradough posted...

I don't think most people actually care how well the president does his job. They just have a good feeling about him and he's on the right team

I think Trump has a solid chance to win, as ridiculous as it is

Trump has done absolutely nothing to appeal to anyone except the rabid base that will already vote for him no matter what. That base isn't big enough to win the election, so he's going to try to cheat.
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Weren't the polls data completely wrong about this kinda thing last time with Hillary?

I think he'll win but still

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KiwiTerraRizing posted...

I will never get how Florida has veered so right.

It's called heaven's waiting room for a reason. All the old folks go there.

Abiz_ posted...

It's called heaven's waiting room for a reason. All the old folks go there.

Theyre all on social security

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CasualGuy posted...

Weren't the polls data completely wrong about this kinda thing last time with Hillary?

I think he'll win but still

Oh my god am I ever fucking tired of reading this
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CasualGuy posted...

Weren't the polls data completely wrong about this kinda thing last time with Hillary?

I think he'll win but still

It was within the margin of error. It really narrowed after the Comey letter.

Reminder Hillary only lost by 80,000 votes split among WI, MI, and PA.

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Polycosm posted...

I don't have a very high degree of certainty but if I had to place a bet on one possible outcome, this is the most likely. Biden is on the path to a blowout and Trump needs something to change to have a plausible path to winning (e.g. economic turnaround or a sudden advancement in coronavirus treatment / vaccine).

I really don't think either of those things will sway people back since he won't actually have anything to do with them happening

and it won't make us ready for the next disaster within 4 years either. what if something major like a huge earthquake happened? this administration isn't fit to respond

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republicans are in a really really really bad position right now. definitely the worst since ive been alive

unless something crazy happens idk how trump wins

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Abiz_ posted...

It's called heaven's waiting room for a reason. All the old folks go there.

This is an inaccurate reasoning. Compared to Rick Scott, JEB was a moderate. Same for Charlie Crist who literally went from Rep to Dem. Florida has totally fallen for the Tea Party/ libertarian trap. The Trump cult is huge in Jacksonville and pretty noticeable everywhere outside of Tampa. People think their High Schook education and trade skill is equivalent to a PhD, literally. If Florida goes blue it's going to be the actual "silent majority" who are sick of Trump's shit.

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ChocoboMogALT posted...

This is an inaccurate reasoning. Compared to Rick Scott, JEB was a moderate. Same for Charlie Crist who literally went from Rep to Dem. Florida has totally fallen for the Tea Party/ libertarian trap. The Trump cult is huge in Jacksonville and pretty noticeable everywhere outside of Tampa. People think their High Schook education and trade skill is equivalent to a PhD, literally. If Florida goes blue it's going to be the actual "silent majority" who are sick of Trump's shit.

Honestly I may have put Florida as tilt blue but its literally a 50/50 realistically. Its always close but historically the state has favored incumbents. It could very well stay red.

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It's probably worth noting that Trump hasn't led in any polls in Florida since March
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KiwiTerraRizing posted...

I will never get how Florida has veered so right.

Voter suppression.
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This is all good, until the voter suppression hands Trump the win anyway

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The virus is definately hurting Trump. It's sabotage on both sides though. Mostly Trump because he doesn't know what he's doing and is just blocking everything and democrats are just like angry bats. You have to read between the mud. Unfortunately the people who end up voting usually don't.

Another old, out-of-touch, dying brain fool

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In a fair election, % yes. Trump and the GOP are doing everything in their power to keep the election from being fair though

I agree in ways. It's sad. None of these candidates are real unifiers. They are just driving nonsense because it's what serves them. Biden is trying to put on this image that he is that. He really isn't. I haven't heard any of the candidates saying the words I want to hear.

How to tell when someone's political opinions are a joke: when they think a landslide is even possibly anymore with how divided America has become.

How to tell when someone's political opinions are a SUPER joke: when they think Joe "Trump is the first racist president" Biden who has a 0% chance of victory is the one that's going to usher in a landslide victory when Obama couldn't even pull that one off.

No, never mind Obama. How can anyone even think that senile moron is even better than Hillary who already lost to Trump?!

KiwiTerraRizing posted...

I will never get how Florida has veered so right.

It's called the rest of you dumped all your old white people on us and then they all gathered in "The Villages".
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emagdnE posted...

Biden who has a 0% chance of victory

I'd love to see your electoral map if you really think this is the case

A huge percentage of America is still white. A good percentage of those people will lean democratic. A good percentage will just continue to get angrier too. This is something black people and democrats really don't understand. They should. Because they do it too. But they don't.

Me too. GOP fucking up this covid stuff

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endgame posting on CE is the fucking worst

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The electoral college basically Red states are still going to be red states and blue states are going to be blue. You might see a big turnaround in some. But Trump still has a huge base.

Democratic presidents are not as common as you think. They are becoming more common but it used to be every 15 years or so.

emagdnE posted...

Biden who has a 0% chance of victory

Are you RomneyLost?

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kg88222 posted...

The electoral college basically Red states are still going to be red states and blue states are going to be blue. You might see a big turnaround in some. But Trump still has a huge base.

His base alone can't win him a fair election. He won with independents last time. He sure as fuck doesn't have them this time

Slayer_22 posted...

It's just kinda pointless to think any of this is anything other than a coin flip at this point.

A single solitary snail... Life is simply unfair, don't you think?

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Trump is white and a man. When America has a white guy in office it's like their comfort zone as well. Biden has that going for him. I think Biden may just win but we will see. This country needs better candidates in general. I don't know if Biden is going to sway people that much. Obama was capable of that.

LethalAffinity posted...

https://i.imgur.com/hnTCsNX.png

You heard it here first folks, Alaska of all states will tilt blue by less than half a percentage point. This is what happens when a president refuses to take a pandemic seriously and calls it a Democrat hoax. The alienated moderate Republicans as well as most independents will go Biden this time around.

dude come on. Trump CANT lose OH. Or GA.

Really too if you look at democrats historically they seem to be elected where there are new ideas afoot. It's how JFK got elected, FDR, Obama, the Clintons etc, etc. Democratic presidents are not as common as people think although that is changing. Elections are historically rigged in republicans favor but it can still swing either way.

kg88222 posted...

Really too if you look at democrats historically they seem to be elected where there are new ideas afoot. It's how JFK got elected, FDR, Obama, the Clintons etc, etc. Democratic presidents are not as common as people think although that is changing. Elections are historically rigged in republicans favor but it can still swing either way.

You're underestimating how much America overall wants Trump the fuck out

I don't know about a landslide, but Biden does have a better chance than Clinton imo. His success would depend on voter participation. Many black voters are more critical about the democratic party even if they don't support Republicans. The latino vote looks to be the same.

Trump has his loyal base because many of them don't have any standards. He won't win the popular vote. His best chance is to continue to motivate his followers and discourage the undecided and unmotivated. His goons in states like Georgia and Florida are going to continue to make it hard for their opposition to even get to the polls.

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No I agree. When Obama was elected it was like a breath of fresh air for some people and then Trump came in and squashed it. That's at least how he's been painted by himself and others.

KStateKing17 posted...

His goons in states like Georgia and Florida are going to continue to make it hard for their opposition to even get to the polls.

True, but Florida will just be icing for either party. If Biden gets Florida he'll have already won

The election is purely about Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Maybe throw North Carolina in there.

Through the 90's this country was becoming increasingly liberal already because of the clintons. Then the bush's came in. THen Obama, then Trump. People are getting sick of republicans. People are getting sick of liberals too. I think the democrats/liberals are winning that battle.