Current Events > Record voter turnout in Texas might allow Biden to win the state

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Cheater87
10/14/20 2:38:58 PM
#101:


I'll be damn surprised if he loses Texas.

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Deja Blue 03
10/14/20 2:49:18 PM
#102:


Just got back from voting myself

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soulunison2
10/14/20 3:29:57 PM
#103:


I mail in voted in nyc
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MFBKBass5
10/14/20 4:10:59 PM
#104:


Zanzenburger posted...
I teach statistics and regularly do statistical analysis.

Polling through calls have proven to be the most reliable method of polling based on time, money, and number of responses. Emails and mailings have low response rates, though they are cheaper than calling. In-person polls are more reliable, but are expensive and time-consuming. Calling is a good in-between and generally is used in combination with other methods.

You would be surprised how many people answer unknown phone numbers. Most credible polls get anywhere from 8% to 30% response rates.

The actual sample size of your sample doesn't really matter as long as it meets a certain threshold for the type of analysis you are using. More important than the size is the sampling method. You want as pure of a random sample as you can get under the circumstances.

Even with a low response rate, you can build in error calculations as well as tests of normality and power analysis to determine the strength of the sample you do have. This helps to see if your sample is representative enough of the total population to continue woth analysis, recruit some more, or restart from scratch.

TLDR: People do actually still respond to phone polls, and there are statistical tests and sampling techniques to account for low response rates.


Interesting insight. I love when people
(like in this topic) try and discredit polls entirely without knowing the details in how it all works.

Appreciate the education about it!

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mach25687
10/14/20 4:19:21 PM
#105:


Don't matter since Trump is going to win via Supreme court.

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MFBKBass5
10/14/20 4:24:07 PM
#106:


mach25687 posted...
Don't matter since Trump is going to win via Supreme court.

lol no

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mach25687
10/14/20 4:25:04 PM
#107:


MFBKBass5 posted...
lol no
Hope you're right.

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MFBKBass5
10/14/20 6:08:34 PM
#108:


mach25687 posted...
Hope you're right.


I dont think its gonna escalate to that level. I think the results will be extremely clear either election night or a few days later.

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ScazarMeltex
10/14/20 8:51:26 PM
#109:


MFBKBass5 posted...
Interesting insight. I love when people
(like in this topic) try and discredit polls entirely without knowing the details in how it all works.

Appreciate the education about it!
Agreed. But the chuds who need to read it won't.


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Sheiky-Baby
10/15/20 7:53:50 AM
#110:


ScazarMeltex posted...
Agreed. But the chuds who need to read it won't.
Hey man, polls only matter if it's favorable to my viewpoint!

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#111
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ledbowman
10/15/20 8:17:45 AM
#112:


Endgame posted...
Anyone delusional enough to think Texas is turning blue this decade, let alone for Biden, should not be allowed to talk.

About ANYTHING.

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#113
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#114
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MFBKBass5
10/16/20 10:24:54 PM
#115:


Ex-Kefiroth posted...
Turnout in Harris County (Houston) hit 20% today.

and this is even before our extra week of early voting is over.


Thats wild. Hell, Harris county itself can be the 1 county to flip Texas blue. Would definitely be epic.

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toadfan64
10/16/20 10:35:14 PM
#116:


Wasn't there numbers out there that said Biden has like a 30% chance at Texas? That seems crazy high odds.

Anyways, if/when Republicans do lose Texas, is that really it for them? How do you make up a state such as Texas.

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hockeybub89
10/16/20 10:38:43 PM
#117:


It's disgusting how good Trump is making Biden look. Trump truly is the worst thing ever

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