Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 334: save_us.pa

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HeroDelTiempo17
11/02/20 7:56:18 PM
#52:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323359333003022336

...wasn't he saying the election was totally in the bag for biden a few days ago? >_>

It's 50/50 given that Trump wins those three states specifically, which is a subset of his 10% overall chance to win. Nate is just being a dork as usual

---
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Ashethan
11/02/20 7:56:32 PM
#53:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
...wasn't he saying the election was totally in the bag for biden a few days ago? >_>

It's working under the assumption that Trump wins NC, FL and GA. Biden has a much more narrow path to victory if that happens.

---
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LordoftheMorons
11/02/20 7:58:10 PM
#54:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323359333003022336

...wasn't he saying the election was totally in the bag for biden a few days ago? >_>
No, hes been saying that Trump has around a 10% chance of winning, per his model (which is both much less than 50% and much greater than 0%). Furthermore the model considers Biden to be a slight favorite in all three of those states, so Biden losing them all would be information that suggests that the model underestimated Trump.

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Mr Lasastryke
11/02/20 8:00:34 PM
#55:


oh ok. i don't read nate silver's twitter that often so i didn't know how to interpret that tweet.

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LordoftheMorons
11/02/20 8:04:52 PM
#56:


Amazing, the TX GOP platform literally contradicts one of its stated positions with the very next sentence

https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1323430378825199616?s=21

---
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HeroDelTiempo17
11/02/20 8:07:07 PM
#57:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
i don't read nate silver's twitter that often

this is a good choice

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HeroDelTiempo17
11/02/20 8:09:40 PM
#58:


LordoftheMorons posted...
Amazing, the TX GOP platform literally contradicts one of its stated positions with the very next sentence

https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1323430378825199616?s=21

Sad thing is this isn't a contradiction from the conservative mindset. The GOP wants to unregulate all the censorship by big tech!

---
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LordoftheMorons
11/02/20 8:35:21 PM
#59:


This uh.... sure is an interesting MS Sen poll

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1323435654219517953

---
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red sox 777
11/02/20 8:40:24 PM
#60:


50/50 if Trump wins FL, NC, and GA? That looks incredibly possible. I'll take those chances.

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ChaosTonyV4
11/02/20 8:56:14 PM
#61:


To post something non-election related and a few days old:

https://twitter.com/chrissyteigen/status/1322235290874900483?s=21

Incredible, lol

---
Phantom Dust.
"I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado
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Corrik7
11/02/20 9:02:09 PM
#62:


My prediction

https://www.270towin.com/maps/KAw3e

---
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Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)
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Jakyl25
11/02/20 9:09:11 PM
#63:


A tweet so dangerous they wont even let you share it



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UshiromiyaEva
11/02/20 9:16:39 PM
#64:


LordoftheMorons posted...
This uh.... sure is an interesting MS Sen poll

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1323435654219517953

Bruh there's no way on earth.

But could you imagine.

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ACAB
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MMXcalibur
11/02/20 9:20:18 PM
#65:


Jakyl25 posted...
A tweet so dangerous they wont even let you share it


Please God, let this end tomorrow.

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Jakyl25
11/02/20 9:22:33 PM
#66:


For the record, the SCOTUS decision hes referring to allows absentee votes to be counted up to 9 days after the election so long as theyre postmarked by Election Day
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Dancedreamer
11/02/20 10:14:20 PM
#67:


https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1323438772990709760

lol Candace Owens

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Suprak the Stud
11/02/20 10:20:24 PM
#68:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/briefing/the-2020-vote-preferences-of-102-common-first-names.html

Petition to change Karens to Janets.

---
Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
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xp1337
11/02/20 10:28:24 PM
#69:


I'm... bored isn't the right word, but I'd like to busy myself with something to keep my mind distracted so I think I'll compile everyone's predictions with a few breakdowns. I also skimmed Ngamer's topic for additional maps though that wasn't very fruitful. If I missed anyone or made errors feel free to note them/repost this/whatever. I may (or may not!) update this if we get a bunch more maps coming in.

---Presidential---

Maps

xp: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ype8k
LotM: https://www.270towin.com/maps/JndLz
Dancedreamer: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pwy28
Xeybozn: https://www.270towin.com/maps/XwmOV
Suprak: https://www.270towin.com/maps/NJKy6
Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KAw3e
red sox: https://www.270towin.com/maps/jV7zm

~~~

By Margin

Biden

LotM: 413-125
xp: 351-187
Xeybozn: 344-194
Corrik: 290-248
Dancedreamer: 279-259
Suprak: 271-267
---
red sox: 252-286

Trump

~~~

Swing States/Districts (Ordered from most people picking Biden at the top to least. Only states where we had splits included. Hopefully I caught all the errors here!)

NV
Biden: xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik
Trump: red sox

NE-2
Biden: xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik
Trump: red sox

PA
Biden: xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Corrik
Trump: Suprak, red sox

AZ
Biden: xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik
Trump: Dancedreamer, red sox

ME-2
Biden: xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak
Trump: Dancedreamer, Corrik, red sox

NC
Biden: xp, LotM, Xeybozn
Trump: Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

FL
Biden: xp, LotM
Trump: Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

GA
Biden: xp, LotM
Trump: Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

TX
Biden: LotM, Xeybozn
Trump: xp, Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

IA
Biden: LotM
Trump: xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

OH
Biden: LotM
Trump: xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox

~~~

Senate

xp: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/qyYBRq
Suprak: +3 net for Dems (-AL, +CO, AZ, ME, NC)

~~~

House

xp: +13 net for Dems.
Suprak: "About the same. Maybe loss of one or two seats."

---
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Dancedreamer
11/02/20 10:33:40 PM
#70:


Suprak the Stud posted...
Petition to change Karens to Janets.

The good place fan in me is saddened.

But I'm fine with this.

---
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~Alexandra
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Suprak the Stud
11/02/20 10:36:35 PM
#71:


Ill lock in at -2 just so we have something concrete to compare it to.

All these other slackers need to get their senate/house maps in.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
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UshiromiyaEva
11/02/20 10:36:55 PM
#72:


Sure are a lot of last minute polls where obvious Trump states are...still Trump, but tightening up hard.

The popular vote is going to be something else this year.

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ACAB
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PerfectChaosZ
11/02/20 10:40:27 PM
#73:


The popular vote literally doesn't matter. They should stop wasting time on counting and recording it.
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UshiromiyaEva
11/02/20 10:42:28 PM
#74:


...How is that wasting time?

It's not like they have to count it again or something.

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ACAB
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xp1337
11/02/20 10:44:31 PM
#75:


I mean it's useful as a constant reminder of how fucked our electoral system is in actually representing the will of the people and that we should change it.

and like was said they count all the votes anyway it's literally just adding the state counts which they have to do together

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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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UshiromiyaEva
11/02/20 10:50:45 PM
#76:


I need to make sure everyone understands that even if Florida goes blue tomorrow it is still an unpredictable nightmare state to be feared and confused by.

At no point is anyone allowed to go "Hell yeah Florida" even if Biden wins literally because of it.

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ACAB
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LordoftheMorons
11/02/20 10:55:09 PM
#77:


I guess I need to make my Senate prediction match my Presidential predictions

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5nQ22M

Not too confident about this, though!

---
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ChaosTonyV4
11/02/20 10:56:50 PM
#78:


https://twitter.com/draftkings/status/1323294561079304192?s=21

If youre confident about a Biden victory, you have an opportunity to make some money if you bet soon!

---
Phantom Dust.
"I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado
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Suprak the Stud
11/02/20 11:01:59 PM
#79:


At the very least I know Ill beat LotM tomorrow!

---
Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
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UshiromiyaEva
11/02/20 11:02:47 PM
#80:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
https://twitter.com/draftkings/status/1323294561079304192?s=21

If youre confident about a Biden victory, you have an opportunity to make some money if you bet soon!

LOL didn't Silver just tweet out about how the sources the betting markets have been using for their polls are fucked?

---
ACAB
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LordoftheMorons
11/02/20 11:10:40 PM
#81:


https://i.redd.it/v68phot9zxw51.jpg

---
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LordoftheMorons
11/02/20 11:11:04 PM
#82:


Suprak the Stud posted...
At the very least I know Ill beat LotM tomorrow!
Hey, if I win we all win...!

---
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UshiromiyaEva
11/02/20 11:12:04 PM
#83:


Biden is Jeb in old man makeup.

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ACAB
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charmander6000
11/02/20 11:19:20 PM
#84:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://i.redd.it/v68phot9zxw51.jpg

Biden/Trump finish with a 269/269 split, one faithless elector picks Jeb and is then chosen by congress to be President.

---
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Corrik7
11/02/20 11:23:24 PM
#85:


My Senate prediction

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5XL9L5

---
Xbox Live User Name - Corrik
Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)
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charmander6000
11/02/20 11:24:35 PM
#86:


@xp1337

Here's my submission.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Lkv9k

I was debating Biden taking North Carolina, but I couldn't pull the trigger...

---
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LordoftheMorons
11/02/20 11:28:15 PM
#87:


Corrik7 posted...
My Senate prediction

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5XL9L5
Took me a few minutes to find the 51st Dem seat

Bold prediction!

---
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LordoftheMorons
11/02/20 11:31:38 PM
#88:


Drive-thru voting thread from the Harris County clerk; there will only be one drive-thru location available tomorrow out of an abundance of caution to make sure those votes ultimately count:

https://twitter.com/CGHollins/status/1323480526951485441

---
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Corrik7
11/02/20 11:31:44 PM
#89:


LordoftheMorons posted...
Took me a few minutes to find the 51st Dem seat

Bold prediction!
Yeah that's a mistake and should be 50-50 lol.

---
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Jakyl25
11/02/20 11:33:48 PM
#90:


UshiromiyaEva posted...


LOL didn't Silver just tweet out about how the sources the betting markets have been using for their polls are fucked?


To be fair, this data isnt from people betting using the markets, its from a pool of people just picking a winner for free and if theyre right they get entered in a prize drawing

Still could be influenced by the lines though
---
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UshiromiyaEva
11/02/20 11:37:00 PM
#91:


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Suprak the Stud
11/02/20 11:42:41 PM
#92:


Corrik7 posted...
Yeah that's a mistake and should be 50-50 lol.

Too late! It's already locked in!

---
Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
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xp1337
11/03/20 12:19:10 AM
#93:


wow tons of maps came in (mostly in Ngamer's topic) so here have a slightly-belated Election Day Midnight Special Update:

(Updated through Post: 334-92 in Containment, 381 in Ngamer)

---Presidential---

Maps

xp: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ype8k
LotM: https://www.270towin.com/maps/JndLz
Dancedreamer: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pwy28
Xeybozn: https://www.270towin.com/maps/XwmOV
Suprak: https://www.270towin.com/maps/NJKy6
Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KAw3e
red sox: https://www.270towin.com/maps/jV7zm
charmander: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Lkv9k
Chris: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJzBp
fuming: https://www.270towin.com/maps/gXObO
Ashethan: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ne1dY
Luster: https://www.270towin.com/maps/E0Prx
Inviso: https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJ32W

~~~

By Margin

Biden

LotM: 413-125
Chris: 360-178
xp: 351-187
Xeybozn: 344-194
Luster: 308-230
Inviso: 305-233
Corrik: 290-248
Ashethan: 288-250
Dancedreamer: 279-259
charmander: 272-266
Suprak: 271-267
---
fuming: 269-269
---
red sox: 252-286

Trump

~~~

Swing States/Districts (Ordered from most people picking Biden at the top to least. Only states where we had splits included. Hopefully I caught all the errors here!)

WI
Biden (12): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso
Trump (1): fuming

NV
Biden (11): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso
Trump (2): red sox, charmander

PA
Biden (10): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Corrik, charmander, Chris, fuming, Luster, Inviso
Trump (3): Suprak, red sox, Ashethan

NE-2
Biden (9): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, fuming, Ashethan
Trump (4): red sox, charmander, Luster, Inviso

AZ
Biden (9): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso
Trump (4): Dancedreamer, red sox, charmander, fuming

ME-2
Biden (7): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Chris, Luster, Inviso
Trump (6): Dancedreamer, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan

NC
Biden (5): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Chris, Inviso
Trump (8): Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster

GA
Biden (3): xp, LotM, Chris
Trump (10): Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso

TX
Biden (3): LotM, Xeybozn, Chris
Trump (10): xp, Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso

OH
Biden (3): LotM, Ashethan, Luster
Trump (10): xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Inviso

FL
Biden (2): xp, LotM
Trump (11): Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso

IA
Biden (1): LotM
Trump (12): xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso

~~~

Senate

xp: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/qyYBRq [50-48-2 runoffs]
Suprak: +3 net for Dems (-AL, +CO, AZ, ME, NC) [50-50]
LotM: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5nQ22M [54-46]
Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5XL9L5 [50-50; Clarified that WV for Dems was an error]

~~~

House

xp: +13 net for Dems.
Suprak: +2 net for Republicans

---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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UshiromiyaEva
11/03/20 12:21:47 AM
#94:


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xp1337
11/03/20 12:31:48 AM
#95:


Also, just for fun after all that heavy data stuff.

My two themes for today.

Early Voting/Election Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5Xj9XhobQg
Election Day, Polls Begin Closing/Results coming in: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4w6r6DkEw0g

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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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UshiromiyaEva
11/03/20 12:33:33 AM
#96:


Just to reaffirm to everyone that GA voter suppression is still a bid geal.

https://twitter.com/jduffyrice/status/1323394561021009920?s=19


---
ACAB
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Metal_DK
11/03/20 12:45:20 AM
#97:


i can see cobb county going blue again. Not fulton population but i do think georgia is in play. Lean Trump, but just like 2016, Georgia might be the last state east of the Mississippi to be called. I believe Georgia was called after Florida in 2016 right?

---
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LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 12:49:29 AM
#98:


The 538 forecast has been finalized:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

---
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Crossfiyah
11/03/20 12:57:51 AM
#99:


Oh are we doing prediction maps?

https://www.270towin.com/maps/vpzmw

---
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LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 12:58:20 AM
#100:


House prediction: let's go with 246 Dems (+13), which is giving them everything toss up and better on 538

---
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LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 1:00:00 AM
#101:


https://twitter.com/gregpmiller/status/1323354100566757377

---
Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ!
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