Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 338: Put your hands up for Detroit

(+) Yeah! (+)

masterplum posted...

I think a Red senate is going to end up better for democrats then 50-50 senate. I think they pick up a bunch of seats in 2022 instead of a red counter wave hitting them

i'll again point to the house, because it's not just the senate. quick google check says 204/190, D/R.
dems lost 5 seats, possibly more.
gop gained 6 seats, possibly more. i don't think they're at risk of losing anything anymore and i think general expectations are up to 10. there's a very real chance it's almost 50/50 in the house, slight nod to dems.

with results like this, they will 100% be emboldened in 2022 because in that year they'll have a very real chance to own both houses of congress.

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Peace___Frog posted...

93% of Republicans voted trump, so the efficacy of their ads is certainly in doubt

We don't know this stat yet. Exit polls are useless until they reweight them to the actual results (even more so this year due to all of the mail voting).

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Federal government is kind of a failure for a bit, democratic party is changing but slowly (the house is getting more and more progressive, I expect this trend to continue) and the Senate has some real dumpster fire stuff, and the presidency is 'zzz'


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Even if the 93% stat is true, that's still a huge bite out of the base. It's like a 3rd party getting %7 of the vote.

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Like what big changes were you expecting 50 dem senators to enact? They werent going to be able to do anything dramatic with 50

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masterplum posted...

Like what big changes were you expecting 50 dem senators to enact? They werent going to be able to do anything dramatic with 50

Able to pick the cabinet he wants (general public doesn't care about cabinet picks much so no real blow back), supreme court if need be (supreme court is more important than any senator, they would bite the bullet on that one, especially after trump's term) and also all of the bills that mitch has just let not vote... votes. Stimulus, etc.

It's really ignorant to say that it's not a big difference.

Also can ram through judges on a federal level, even if they aren't great they will at least be qualified.

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R's won't have enough votes in 2022 because they'll be dead from Covid.

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50 Senators also probably go for DC/PR Statehood.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

That maybe power for power's sake is less important than helping the American people? Voting Republican is voting for literal death to americans given how they handled COVID

We need to stop acting like these Republicans are just decent people who are misguided. They aren't. Marco Rubio isn't a decent person. Mitch McConnell is just as bad as Trump, and may be worse. They don't treat us like we're decent people looking to help the American people. They treat us like the enemy. It's time we started treating them the same.

I get that we needed the moderate independents in this election, because incumbency is a hell of a drug. You can't just beat an incumbent that easily. (Which is why we should've had someone younger than 80 years old running for President, but I digress...) But we really need to take the kid gloves off. Have we learned nothing from how we treated the South after the Civil War? It doesn't help anything.

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xp1337 posted...

The really infuriating thing is that I actually think if nominees were brought to the floor by Biden the votes are probably there. Not sure Romney and Murkowski just totally stonewall a cabinet. But McConnell will just keep them from ever getting there and they'll just act concerned and say they'd love to hear from a nominee as though they have no agency to make that happen.

The vice president is the presiding official in the Senate and could force votes to be held without the Majority Leader's support. In theory at least, though I don't think it's been tried before.
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you can also get more non-SC judges with 50 senators too. most will still pass but this does give the gop something to obstruct with whenever they feel like it.

though yeah the biggest thing would definitely be the ability to put bills on the floor.


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masterplum posted...

Like what big changes were you expecting 50 dem senators to enact? They werent going to be able to do anything dramatic with 50

All of the stuff that several GOP Senators would not want to actually vote against (e.g. more covid relief) but might be fine with just letting Mitch refuse to put up to a vote

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Oh mitch is for sure worse than trump. Trump is like, insane in a literal sense, Mitch is shrewd (compared to his rivals, not saying much)

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https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324363287526547457

Perdue finally under 50%

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foolm0r0n posted...

Even if the 93% stat is true, that's still a huge bite out of the base. It's like a 3rd party getting %7 of the vote.

Yeah but it was 90% last time
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Oh god Georgia.

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GA Secretary of State saying they should be finished counting by noon.

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What are the chances that the dems win both seats in Georgia? I'm guessing that's going to be nothing but political ads. I feel sorry for the co-worker I have that lives there.

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I am very curious what turnout will look like for Georgia special elections. Might be a good indicator for 2022. Will the crazy trump people fade with trump gone or will they stay Republican?

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masterplum posted...

Like what big changes were you expecting 50 dem senators to enact? They werent going to be able to do anything dramatic with 50

-Cabinet positions
-Federal Judges
-Putting things to vote that Mitch will just refuse to hold a vote on that some Republicans can't afford to vote against. (THIS IS THE MOST INFURIATING THING IN THE WORLD. MITCH MCCONNELL GETS TO PROTECT VULNERABLE SENATORS FROM HAVING TO MAKE VOTES ON THINGS THAT HIS CONSTITUENTS NEED AND HE'S 100% SAFE.) He's basically ruined our democracy in a way that Donald Trump could only HOPE to.

Like... if we ever get power back (and one day we will) we need to make it so that the majority leader can't hold stuff up like Mitch has. Find a way to allow the minority leader to force a vote on things.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Oh god Georgia.

Could become the republicans least or most favorite state
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LordoftheMorons posted...

We don't know this stat yet. Exit polls are useless until they reweight them to the actual results (even more so this year due to all of the mail voting).

That's fair.

I still don't think that the anti trump r's have done much of anything substantial, the party is off the rails.

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RaidenGarai posted...

What are the chances that the dems win both seats in Georgia? I'm guessing that's going to be nothing but political ads. I feel sorry for the co-worker I have that lives there.

Really unclear at this point. Dems definitely could win them if they maintain more enthusiasm than Republicans, but who knows how that's gonna play out

(I also wouldn't be surprised if they split 1/1 because Loeffler is a terrible candidate)

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RaidenGarai posted...

What are the chances that the dems win both seats in Georgia? I'm guessing that's going to be nothing but political ads. I feel sorry for the co-worker I have that lives there.

I'd say almost zero regardless of who wins the presidency. I'd love to be wrong though, but I would think without a presidential election upticket, you're going to struggle to get the dems to turnout again. Ossof is already losing straight up with almost no third party vote, so it'll basically be the same election again.

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If Ds are smart they'll be supporting the GA runoffs on a national level, and the ads will be primarily focused around the GA vote being about the fate of the nation as a whole and not more focused local opponent attacks.


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Also, the question will remain to be seen of how many Trump voters are only showing up for Trump, and voting down just by necessity.

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I think ads like that also turn out the republicans very well too, though. I agree it is the best way to go, but it isn't like republicans won't be motivated by the exact same thing.

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One strategy would be to make it about covid relief: if Dems don't win these seats, it probably isn't happening

Of course, McConnell count undercut that by passing the bill... but that would also be a win

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If Trump loses Georgia, he may not campaign for the Republicans there. So there would be that, but I don't have faith.

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Dems new COVID relief bill: $2k per person, $20k for every Georgian.

Let's just straight up bribe some people.

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Dancedreamer posted...

If Trump loses Georgia, he may not campaign for the Republicans there. So there would be that, but I don't have faith.

That would be amazing
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https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1324370600018792450

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Suprak the Stud posted...

Dems new COVID relief bill: $2k per person, $20k for every Georgian.

Let's just straight up bribe some people.

You know, I'd be okay with this if it wins both seats!

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I'm trying to do some really, really quick and messy rough guess of what the final vote in Georgia might be, assuming 100% of D's vote Biden and 100% of R's vote Trump and using which counties have votes left. I'm being conservative and assuming turnout for Biden is only 10% better than current returns and I think Biden loses by roughly 1.5k votes. Again, this is making a lot of assumptions here and I'm being conservative since the actual mail-ins I think should skew a bit more heavily towards Biden here.

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Dancedreamer posted...

If Trump loses Georgia, he may not campaign for the Republicans there. So there would be that, but I don't have faith.

I would not be surprised at all

(not predicting it; he could see it as revenge and be all aboard. But of course he doesn't actually care about them)

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https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1324370600018792450

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61367 votes withstanding in Georgia.

Sounds like enough to flip it.

They keep changing the number so who knows what it will be next. Lol.

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Anyway, off to bed. PA looks extremely likely and GA is looking good, so hopefully Biden will have officially won by the time I get up!

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Well in good news lots of neat stuff was passed, so the country is actually getting more progressive even as our sitting officials fuck stuff up. Florida will have a 15 dollar min wage by 2026 at the latest, raising more than a dollar a year starting in january that's nice. War on drugs took a huge hit too.

Senate staying red is going to suck if it works out that way but it is nice to see small things working out.

Nevada became the first state to protect same-sex marriage in its state constitution. We may be embarrassing ourselves with this glacial vote count, but at least we did that!

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Tennessee on the other hand seems to have the most Kanye votes of any state

Gotta love this place

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OK, Georgia's definitely going for Trump now, given the county breakdown. 60,000 ballots left, Biden behind by 18,000 plus, only 11,000 from Fulton, a few hundred from Clayton

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61,367 votes left. 11000 from Fulton. 18.8k lead.

He needs like 66.7% of the rest to take Georgia.

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Corrik7 posted...

61,367 votes left. 11000 from Fulton. 18.8k lead.

He needs like 66.7% of the rest to take Georgia.

He could get 70% from Fulton and Gwinnett, but he's not going to do these numbers in the other counties, Chatham included. The hope was that Fulton was a greater percentage of that 60,000.

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He will certainly get much more than 70% in Fulton and close to that in Gwinnett, and probably 90% in Clayton.

Again, rough numbers I tried to calculate has Biden still losing by around 1.5k votes. Which is absurdly close.

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Mail in ballots are much bluer than the average.

The weighted average is like +19 Dem alone.

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

Nate silver said it was good news for biden, but maybe he's just trying to drive clicks? Regardless georgia is going to be obscenely close and will almost definitely go to a recount (unless maybe trump takes it and then Biden wins without them so doesn't bother?) But we'll see how it goes

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it's fully in recount territory anyway, so whatever we get won't be the proper total.

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The Pittsburgh area (Allegheny County) is taking an "administrative day" to ensure all votes are legit and won't start actually counting again until tomorrow.

This is actually a mess. They need to do better for the next election. All this is going to do is give Trump more reason to prolong this thing.

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So if Nevada comes around and annnounces Biden won there, is that it? Or does he need another state after that?

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https://twitter.com/MatttGFX/status/1324240751316869121?s=19

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