Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 339: Blue With NV

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HeroDelTiempo17
11/05/20 5:46:16 PM
#51:


Inviso posted...
Biden was the nominee because the black vote favored him! You can argue about Kamala having a negative impact, but the black vote favored Hillary AND Biden in the primaries.

Primaries aren't the general.

Aside from the suburban white voters the Dems have specifically been targeting since 2016, the total electorate seems to have drifted conservative

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Wanglicious
11/05/20 5:46:47 PM
#52:


having the same or more policing is also something most black people prefer too so that's not particularly surprising. defund the police is just plain unpopular and its opposite is viewed more favorably.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/05/20 5:47:57 PM
#53:


Jakyl25 posted...
This might be why Fox is hesitant to make the call

https://twitter.com/orinanne/status/1324478002756014087?s=21

Lol

It's actually a really scary to think about and overall bad if these people leave Fox News for a different station for their day to day, because it's not likes they're going to another major news network. They'll migrate to OAN and NRA News.

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TheRock1525
11/05/20 5:48:14 PM
#54:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...
Primaries aren't the general.

Aside from the suburban white voters the Dems have specifically been targeting since 2016, the total electorate seems to have drifted conservative

So how do you win them back by moving more left?

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Dancedreamer
11/05/20 5:48:33 PM
#55:


https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324473707121778688

Junior calling for a War.

Somehow George W. Bush isn't the worst son of a one term President.

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fuming
11/05/20 5:48:34 PM
#56:


We are specifically talking about a small percentage of black voters who switched to Trump in this election, and why they would have felt the need to tell the Democrats to fuck off. If you can't reasonably conceive those people existing, because voters in south carlina voted a certain way in a primary, I don't know what to tell you. Black voters are not a monolith, despite what Joe Biden would tell you.
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KamikazePotato
11/05/20 5:48:52 PM
#57:


I'm okay with anything that makes Republicans eat their own. Trump splintering part of the right-wing on the way out would be delicious.

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Jakyl25
11/05/20 5:50:12 PM
#58:


Dancedreamer posted...
https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324473707121778688

Junior calling for a War.

Somehow George W. Bush isn't the worst son of a one term President.


Are we sure Jr is worse than Eric?
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Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 5:50:59 PM
#59:


Wanglicious posted...
having the same or more policing is also something most black people prefer too so that's not particularly surprising. defund the police is just plain unpopular and its opposite is viewed more favorably.

That isn't quite true. I wouldn't say it is overwhelming popular but it is close to 50% approval.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-like-the-ideas-behind-defunding-the-police-more-than-the-slogan-itself/

The slogan is unpopular with most demographic groups, too, with two notable exceptions: Black Americans and Democrats. In the two polls where results were broken down by race, Black respondents said they supported defunding the police by an average of 45 percent to 28 percent, while white respondents opposed it by an average of 61 percent to 23 percent.

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Moops?
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fuming
11/05/20 5:51:11 PM
#60:


TheRock1525 posted...
So how do you win them back by moving more left?

Because they are moving conservative by the democratic party failing to address their needs. When people think government doesn't work for them, they start to buy into right wing framing. The government is bad, only care about yourself, and frankly, some just switch to voting for cultural issues.
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Jakyl25
11/05/20 5:51:28 PM
#61:


fuming posted...
We are specifically talking about a small percentage of black voters who switched to Trump in this election, and why they would have felt the need to tell the Democrats to fuck off. If you can't reasonably conceive those people existing, because voters in south carlina voted a certain way in a primary, I don't know what to tell you. Black voters are not a monolith, despite what Joe Biden would tell you.


Itll be interesting to see the percentage of black voters who flipped to Trump versus the percentage of new black voters he turned out
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HashtagSEP
11/05/20 5:52:02 PM
#62:


Whose alt

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UshiromiyaEva
11/05/20 5:53:18 PM
#63:


HashtagSEP posted...
Whose alt

I've been asking for over a month an could never get an answer.

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TheRock1525
11/05/20 5:53:20 PM
#64:


fuming posted...
We are specifically talking about a small percentage of black voters who switched to Trump in this election, and why they would have felt the need to tell the Democrats to fuck off. If you can't reasonably conceive those people existing, because voters in south carlina voted a certain way in a primary, I don't know what to tell you. Black voters are not a monolith, despite what Joe Biden would tell you.

I question the logic of anyone who's fed up with the Dems going "that's it, I'm going to vote for the openly racist party." Like, more power to you and all but going from the party that takes your vote for granted to the party that actively doesn't want your vote doesn't seem like a winning strategy.

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TheRock1525
11/05/20 5:53:35 PM
#65:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
I've been asking for over a month an could never get an answer.

Cyclos

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Wanglicious
11/05/20 5:54:58 PM
#66:


fuming posted...
We are specifically talking about a small percentage of black voters who switched to Trump in this election, and why they would have felt the need to tell the Democrats to fuck off. If you can't reasonably conceive those people existing, because voters in south carlina voted a certain way in a primary, I don't know what to tell you. Black voters are not a monolith, despite what Joe Biden would tell you.

if you're looking for black republicans/conservatives that switched i believe the Hodge Twins would be the most prominent ones. not sure when they came out as conservative but i think it was 2016 or 2017 and they've maintained steady growth.

beyond that, and plenty are gonna hate this one, Candace Owens does hit with that particular demo hard.

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red sox 777
11/05/20 5:55:37 PM
#67:


Jakyl25 posted...
Itll be interesting to see the percentage of black voters who flipped to Trump versus the percentage of new black voters he turned out

Current margin in Philadelphia: Biden +61
Hillary's margin in Philadelphia: Clinton +67

Hillary's margin in Philadelphia: +476k
Biden's margin in Philadelphia if he wins every single remaining mail vote: +463k

Meanwhile, Biden is running far ahead of Hillary in the predominantly white Philadelphia suburbs.

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Inviso
11/05/20 5:56:58 PM
#68:


fuming posted...
Because they are moving conservative by the democratic party failing to address their needs. When people think government doesn't work for them, they start to buy into right wing framing. The government is bad, only care about yourself, and frankly, some just switch to voting for cultural issues.

How do you suggest we fix this then, keeping in mind that, despite them not being a homogenous monolith, the majority of black voters in the primary nominated the person that you are claiming turned this group of black voters away from the Democratic Party?

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Inviso
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KamikazePotato
11/05/20 5:57:58 PM
#69:


PA down to 78k.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/05/20 6:02:27 PM
#70:


Saw a good point brought up to those saying they should have counted all the early votes ahead of time: technically, yes, but would you really want to be in the reverse situation right now? Thursday night, living and absolute fear of Trump overtaking GA and praying that Biden flips AZ?

....though I guess we'd also likely be in a situation where PA was called already.

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Jakyl25
11/05/20 6:03:45 PM
#71:


https://twitter.com/peltzmadeline/status/1324471538310127618?s=21

More right wing calls to violence by a prominent member of Trumps circle and former member of the administration
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Wanglicious
11/05/20 6:04:05 PM
#72:


Suprak the Stud posted...
That isn't quite true. I wouldn't say it is overwhelming popular but it is close to 50% approval.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-like-the-ideas-behind-defunding-the-police-more-than-the-slogan-itself/

that was early June, which was the absolute peak of popularity BLM and defund the police had since Floyd's death was end of May. shift to August and:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/316571/black-americans-police-retain-local-presence.aspx

When asked whether they want the police to spend more time, the same amount of time or less time than they currently do in their area, most Black Americans -- 61% -- want the police presence to remain the same. This is similar to the 67% of all U.S. adults preferring the status quo, including 71% of White Americans.

more vs. less was a 1% difference in favor of more but that's a wash. that said, it's at the same time that BLM remained popular within the black community. ultimately people just want better cops.


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Lightning Strikes
11/05/20 6:04:13 PM
#73:


An issue with defund the police from the left perspective is that frankly, it promotes austerity economics. The important thing is funding community services much better, and having police funding at an appropriate level. That is not communicated at all by the defund the police slogan nor is it emphasised by the movement. You shouldnt need to defund anything to fund anything else, you should raise the money by progressive taxation.

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pezzicle
11/05/20 6:05:37 PM
#74:


Dancedreamer posted...
https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324473707121778688

Junior calling for a War.

Somehow George W. Bush isn't the worst son of a one term President.
Expose it then

Man they talk about exposure.of corruption all the time and then never actually expose it.

Hey, maybe they are full of crap lol

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Wanglicious
11/05/20 6:06:01 PM
#75:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Saw a good point brought up to those saying they should have counted all the early votes ahead of time: technically, yes, but would you really want to be in the reverse situation right now? Thursday night, living and absolute fear of Trump overtaking GA and praying that Biden flips AZ?

....though I guess we'd also likely be in a situation where PA was called already.

some states were able to do this, like Florida.
some states were not, like PA.

there were legal challenges by republicans to make this exact situation with PA.
...yeah, pretty sure next time everyone's gonna go with the standard of "mail in first whenever possible."

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MoogleKupo141
11/05/20 6:06:30 PM
#76:


https://twitter.com/zackbornstein/status/1324464284907106304?s=21

corrik how do you feel about your lt. governor? he seems cool
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Jakyl25
11/05/20 6:06:52 PM
#77:


Wanglicious posted...

there were legal challenges by republicans to make this exact situation with PA.
...yeah, pretty sure next time everyone's gonna go with the standard of "mail in first whenever possible."


Those Republicans arent!
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Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 6:07:31 PM
#78:


Wanglicious posted...
that was early June, which was the absolute peak of popularity BLM and defund the police had since Floyd's death was end of May. shift to August and:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/316571/black-americans-police-retain-local-presence.aspx

When asked whether they want the police to spend more time, the same amount of time or less time than they currently do in their area, most Black Americans -- 61% -- want the police presence to remain the same. This is similar to the 67% of all U.S. adults preferring the status quo, including 71% of White Americans.

more vs. less was a 1% difference in favor of more but that's a wash. that said, it's at the same time that BLM remained popular within the black community. ultimately people just want better cops.

Oh, ok fair enough. I should've check for a more recent poll. Thanks!

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Moops?
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HeroDelTiempo17
11/05/20 6:08:20 PM
#79:


<a onclick="return show_quoted_message(8, 79088297, 946779258, '30775d90');" href="/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/79088297/946779258">TheRock1525 posted... </a>
So how do you win them back by moving more left?

Well my theory is they're voting for self-interest, so you offer people social programs or other benefits that dramatically improve their life. And actually run on it instead of worrying you'll be perceived as a socialist. It clearly isn't enough to just explain that the Republican party doesn't care about your self-interest, if you don't have a more compelling alternative.

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Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 6:08:24 PM
#80:


MoogleKupo141 posted...
https://twitter.com/zackbornstein/status/1324464284907106304?s=21

corrik how do you feel about your lt. governor? he seems cool

Holy shit that is the most Pennsylvania man I've ever seen.

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Moops?
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xp1337
11/05/20 6:09:03 PM
#81:


Jakyl25 posted...
Those Republicans arent!
imagine thinking any gop response would be anything other than "make voting (by mail) harder"

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Corrik7
11/05/20 6:09:39 PM
#82:


red sox 777 posted...
Current margin in Philadelphia: Biden +61
Hillary's margin in Philadelphia: Clinton +67

Hillary's margin in Philadelphia: +476k
Biden's margin in Philadelphia if he wins every single remaining mail vote: +463k

Meanwhile, Biden is running far ahead of Hillary in the predominantly white Philadelphia suburbs.

red sox 777 posted...
Current margin in Philadelphia: Biden +61
Hillary's margin in Philadelphia: Clinton +67

Hillary's margin in Philadelphia: +476k
Biden's margin in Philadelphia if he wins every single remaining mail vote: +463k

Meanwhile, Biden is running far ahead of Hillary in the predominantly white Philadelphia suburbs.
He won Erie which is the key area to PA.

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Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 6:14:31 PM
#83:


Arizona down to 65k without any additional Maricopa drops yet.

Anxiety rising...

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Moops?
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Wanglicious
11/05/20 6:16:30 PM
#84:


Suprak the Stud posted...
Oh, ok fair enough. I should've check for a more recent poll. Thanks!

also because i mentioned it, i think this is the most recent survey done on BLM.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/16/support-for-black-lives-matter-has-decreased-since-june-but-remains-strong-among-black-americans/

support in September was still favorable overall but the drops in everyone except black people are very notable.
i don't know today but i'd assume under 50% again overall since nothing has been as glaring as Floyd and dropping 5-6% overall seems easy.

may see an uptick depending how that trial goes - which is to say whether or not Chauvin is guilty of manslaughter 2nd degree or if he walks because they overcharged him.

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Mr Lasastryke
11/05/20 6:23:08 PM
#85:


KamikazePotato posted...
https://twitter.com/Loeybug/status/1323899867169771520/photo/1

his facial expression makes it great.

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Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 6:25:11 PM
#86:


Apparently that batch that dropped it to 80k came from Cumberland county. There is a 7 point swing from 2016 there now that all voting is done (Trump +18 to Trump +11) and Biden got the votes from mail in (which is what dropped) 70-30.

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Moops?
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pezzicle
11/05/20 6:26:06 PM
#87:


Wanglicious posted...
also because i mentioned it, i think this is the most recent survey done on BLM.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/16/support-for-black-lives-matter-has-decreased-since-june-but-remains-strong-among-black-americans/

support in September was still favorable overall but the drops in everyone except black people are very notable.
i don't know today but i'd assume under 50% again overall since nothing has been as glaring as Floyd and dropping 5-6% overall seems easy.

may see an uptick depending how that trial goes - which is to say whether or not Chauvin is guilty of manslaughter 2nd degree or if he walks because they overcharged him.
Man those party differences is wild

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HeroDelTiempo17
11/05/20 6:26:08 PM
#88:


Lightning Strikes posted...
An issue with defund the police from the left perspective is that frankly, it promotes austerity economics. The important thing is funding community services much better, and having police funding at an appropriate level. That is not communicated at all by the defund the police slogan nor is it emphasised by the movement. You shouldnt need to defund anything to fund anything else, you should raise the money by progressive taxation.

This is a strange argument to me. Would you say this about the military budget or spending on benefits to corporations? Sometimes there are good reasons for budget cuts without having to raise the austerity boogeyman. This is one of them: policing can get by with less tools for violence in the budget. Not only in equipment but in public funding for lawsuits, etc.

Wanglicious posted...


When asked whether they want the police to spend more time, the same amount of time or less time than they currently do in their area, most Black Americans -- 61% -- want the police presence to remain the same. This is similar to the 67% of all U.S. adults preferring the status quo, including 71% of White Americans.

more vs. less was a 1% difference in favor of more but that's a wash. that said, it's at the same time that BLM remained popular within the black community. ultimately people just want better cops.

Yeah so I'm not going to dispute this but I will say that Black Americans have a stronger opinion on the systemic issues with the police alongside this. Still reformist, but it paints a need for bigger reforms that aren't easily characterized by just a 1% difference in opinion on this specific question. And as stated above, genuinely good reforms can come from reducing the budget.

So let me wrap back around to my original point here. "Defund the police" and "Medicare for All" and while I'm at it even "Green New Deal" are all slogans with issues. THE PROBLEM WITH DEMOCRATS is that they are so scared of the reception of these slogans that they run away from the actual ideas within them, many of which ARE popular, instead of actually engaging with them. And I encourage others to not make that same mistake.

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Jakyl25
11/05/20 6:28:00 PM
#89:


Trump speaking at 6:30

Im sure it will be a unifying masterpiece to heal our nation.
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MoogleKupo141
11/05/20 6:29:05 PM
#90:


https://twitter.com/kadhim/status/1324482449498394624?s=21

the quality of trumps legal squad makes me feel calmer
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fuming
11/05/20 6:30:42 PM
#91:


Inviso posted...
How do you suggest we fix this then, keeping in mind that, despite them not being a homogenous monolith, the majority of black voters in the primary nominated the person that you are claiming turned this group of black voters away from the Democratic Party?

I don't know what problem you are meaning. If you mean how to win back those voters, you give them candidates they like. If you mean how to solve the democratic primaries picking unlikable candidates to them, I don't think that is a problem, they should pick whatever candidate they want. It's just understandable to me why people would feel insulted by the one they chose.
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Corrik7
11/05/20 6:32:30 PM
#92:


Just realized I have been watching a CNN channel that was like 4 hours behind for who knows how long. Realized it when an update came in to take PA below 100k difference.

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#93
Post #93 was unavailable or deleted.
Jakyl25
11/05/20 6:38:39 PM
#94:


UltimaterializerX posted...
https://twitter.com/drawandstrike/status/1324123192529723392?s=21

If this ends up being true I am going to laugh my ass off.

We are never going to know who actually wins this election. The only fair way to do it is have Biden be prez Monday through Wednesday, Trump Thursday through Saturday.


Tweets gone man
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_stingers_
11/05/20 6:39:12 PM
#95:


UltimaterializerX posted...
https://twitter.com/drawandstrike/status/1324123192529723392?s=21

If this ends up being true I am going to laugh my ass off.

We are never going to know who actually wins this election. The only fair way to do it is have Biden be prez Monday through Wednesday, Trump Thursday through Saturday.
it shows the account was suspended when i try to click on the tweet

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PrinceKaro
11/05/20 6:39:28 PM
#96:


"This Tweet is from a suspended account"

lol

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Sorozone
11/05/20 6:41:15 PM
#97:


It was probably just more conspiracy nonsense.

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#98
Post #98 was unavailable or deleted.
Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 6:41:51 PM
#99:


UltimaterializerX posted...
If this ends up being true

Narrator: It wasn't.


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Wanglicious
11/05/20 6:42:04 PM
#100:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...


Yeah so I'm not going to dispute this but I will say that Black Americans have a stronger opinion on the systemic issues with the police alongside this. Still reformist, but it paints a need for bigger reforms that aren't easily characterized by just a 1% difference in opinion on this specific question. And as stated above, genuinely good reforms can come from reducing the budget.

absolutely true there, yeah.
i do believe that a lot of the defund the police stuff hit a weird meta politically due to covid and necessary budget cuts too, which poisoned some discussion. but yes, of the demos, black americans do have the strongest support of wanting changes/reforms but not necessarily a decrease.

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

So let me wrap back around to my original point here. "Defund the police" and "Medicare for All" and while I'm at it even "Green New Deal" are all slogans with issues. THE PROBLEM WITH DEMOCRATS is that they are so scared of the reception of these slogans that they run away from the actual ideas within them, many of which ARE popular, instead of actually engaging with them. And I encourage others to not make that same mistake.

yep, pretty constant trend among Dem slogans. people like certain ideas in all of these, in very widespread numbers, but either the one put up front turns people away or there's too much packed inside and people reject certain things and toss all of it. this idea of having all encompassing pitches/slogans to embody a multitude of specific things just does not work. or i guess the easy way of putting it is dems really have trouble following the KISS rule with this.

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