Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 339: Blue With NV

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HeroDelTiempo17
11/05/20 8:20:50 PM
#302:


TheRock1525 posted...
But... they are. Maybe not as much as the most progressive ideas but they're certainly doing more expand health coverage and social safety nets than the GOP. They aren't stripping back departments like education or HUD.

I know we are just rehashing the argument at some point but Dems just don't convince people they're helping, and voters either don't care about the details of the plans or don't believe them. Trump is at least selling something, and people are buying it.

Dems need more used car salesmen in their party since apparently people love that shit

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Wanglicious
11/05/20 8:21:16 PM
#303:


PrivateBiscuit1 posted...


The plan should be to slowly ramp up minimum wage, and when we get back to where we were before this pandemic, have more of a yearly increase.

i'll use NY as an example as it's the only i'm most familiar with.
it was tiered in 4 categories with different pay scales ranging from 2016 to 2021. the max value was $15 and hit differently every year:

NYC w/11+ employees - went up $2 every year for 3 years to be $15.
NYC w/10 or less - went up $1.50 every year for 4 years to be $15.
Long Island and Westchester - went up $1 every year for 5 years to be $15.
rest of NY - went up $0.70 cents every year and will continue to do so until it reaches $15.

https://www.ny.gov/new-york-states-minimum-wage/new-york-states-minimum-wage

when broken down like this, i think it works really well.
but the messaging of $15 min wage is pretty bad since this sort of breakdown isn't what anybody normally thinks of first.

edit:
and i think the concern of it doubling somebody's pay is remedied in the last situation, where it'll go from $9.70 to $15 over 8 years in steady increments.

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KamikazePotato
11/05/20 8:22:02 PM
#304:


Democrats can be bad at branding but people never seem willing to admit that maybe voters are fucking stupid and branding is hard when dealing with a populace that runs on a single shared brain cell

It's easy for the GOP because all they have to do is appeal to hateful emotion. Democrats have to actually try

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ChaosTonyV4
11/05/20 8:22:51 PM
#305:


TheRock1525 posted...
But... they are. Maybe not as much as the most progressive ideas but they're certainly doing more expand health coverage and social safety nets than the GOP. They aren't stripping back departments like education or HUD.

A nebulous promise of expanded health coverage and social safety nets is too complicated, and that ignores all the millions of people in the middle who are just of qualifying range for those benefitsthey get nothing.


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PrivateBiscuit1
11/05/20 8:22:54 PM
#306:


The Green New Deal is definitely poorly branded and poorly presented and they have done very little to make it seem "safe" for workers in other industries currently.

But I feel like now more than ever people wouldn't be willing to listen and will just assume the worst anyway.

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Corrik7
11/05/20 8:23:13 PM
#307:


Wanglicious posted...
then yeah, that's what i thought you're familiar with here. Fauci thing is the beginning, with heads on pikes.
the issue is what he says after that part because it shifts from imaginary exaggerated scenario to dark history to dark, plausible reality right now.

jakyl posted it again earlier, i'll do it as well. it's this minute clip.
https://twitter.com/peltzmadeline/status/1324471538310127618?s=21

first half i really can't think of a more clear 1:1 than the Kathy Griffith head thing. the second, well, good luck if you try your hand at that one because i got nothing. outrage or concern there is well warranted.
It starts out as making an example out of them, but then he starts to get a little weird about it lol. Unsure if he was trying to segue into a history lesson there or what.

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fuming
11/05/20 8:25:26 PM
#308:


Democrats partially are really bad at branding because everyone in the party establishment right now wants the party to appeal to college educated professional class voters. And they are very good at that - but that's a third of the country. AOC, Bernie, and I'll give him credit, to a lesser extent Biden, are all pretty good at connection with the working class. But types like Hillary, Warren, Buttigieg are not really, and when they try it comes across fake and patronizing. And when people try to appeal by running bartenders, or guys from no money who worked odd jobs and wear ratty suits like Bernie - they get pushback which turns people off from the party because they don't feel welcome. When they use slogans or have plans that are digestible and simple - they get pushback. But those things are what give those candidates their appeal!
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UshiromiyaEva
11/05/20 8:25:36 PM
#309:


So apparently no mailins have been counted yet in Alaska, and there's a very small possibility it might go blue.

Uh....

Huh.....

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Corrik7
11/05/20 8:25:57 PM
#310:


https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1324516719608692737

yikes lol

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PrivateBiscuit1
11/05/20 8:26:45 PM
#311:


Wanglicious posted...
i'll use NY as an example as it's the only i'm most familiar with.
it was tiered in 4 categories with different pay scales ranging from 2016 to 2021. the max value was $15 and hit differently every year:

NYC w/11+ employees - went up $2 every year for 3 years to be $15.
NYC w/10 or less - went up $1.50 every year for 4 years to be $15.
Long Island and Westchester - went up $1 every year for 5 years to be $15.
rest of NY - went up $0.70 cents every year and will continue to do so until it reaches $15.

https://www.ny.gov/new-york-states-minimum-wage/new-york-states-minimum-wage

when broken down like this, i think it works really well.
but the messaging of $15 min wage is pretty bad since this sort of breakdown isn't what anybody normally thinks of first.

edit:
and i think the concern of it doubling somebody's pay is remedied in the last situation, where it'll go from $9.70 to $15 over 8 years in steady increments.
Now see, this all seems a lot more reasonable to me. But I don't think this sort of system should be considered at all on a federal level until we havea more stable economy.

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KamikazePotato
11/05/20 8:29:01 PM
#312:


"We shouldn't consider X until things are different" is the enemy of progress. The economy will never be stable. You either start taking steps now or it never happens.

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Wanglicious
11/05/20 8:29:08 PM
#313:


Corrik7 posted...
It starts out as making an example out of them, but then he starts to get a little weird about it lol. Unsure if he was trying to segue into a history lesson there or what.

yeah that "little weird about it" part is the thing that freaks people out. technically yeah, it's a mini history lesson but that is a really bad time to do it since it sounds like something you actually want to do since these are very real terms being used on people and you're asking for people who get called it to die.

you hear the "making an example" part.
then hear the part after talking about revolution, civil war, traitors, all that.
then go back to the example.
and it's an "oh shit" moment.

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fuming
11/05/20 8:31:22 PM
#314:


KamikazePotato posted...
Democrats can be bad at branding but people never seem willing to admit that maybe voters are fucking stupid and branding is hard when dealing with a populace that runs on a single shared brain cell

It's easy for the GOP because all they have to do is appeal to hateful emotion. Democrats have to actually try

Democrats should try a lot harder to appeal to emotion! Some of you are baffled that voters do not always behave in the way you perceive as the logical way to vote, and then when people say it's because voters are not logic robots, but emotional and can't bring themselves to support people that they distrust and don't like who only offer the bare minimum more than the other guy because they are tired of the lies and manipulation and disappointment, you just call them stupid. To a lot of non voters, continuing to support democrats hoping for anything to get better seems illogical and stupid!
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PrivateBiscuit1
11/05/20 8:32:34 PM
#315:


KamikazePotato posted...
"We shouldn't consider X until things are different" is the enemy of progress. The economy will never be stable. You either start taking steps now or it never happens.
I felt the economy BEFORE the pandemic was perfectly stable for implementing something like that.

But it's going to take time to get back there now. Doing this sort of thing on a federal level now does not help small businesses. We should be taking a step to getting our economy back to where it was as a priority.

I'm all about increasing minimum wage, but doing it at the significant rate presented when a bunch of small businesses are either shuttered or seriously struggling now isn't a good idea.

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Jakyl25
11/05/20 8:34:00 PM
#316:


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Corrik7
11/05/20 8:34:01 PM
#317:


Democrat in Alaska seems to think he will win that Senate seat. We will see on that one.

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Sorozone
11/05/20 8:36:34 PM
#318:


I think Alaska is still a long shot, but if it did switch seats that would be absolutely wild.

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Corrik7
11/05/20 8:37:14 PM
#319:


https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324517060903202816

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Dancedreamer
11/05/20 8:37:49 PM
#320:


fuming posted...
Democrats should try a lot harder to appeal to emotion

The problem is, anytime we do that the Republicans scream at us for 'appealing to emotion' and say that we're 'virtue signaling.'

*points at Sandy Hook*

"The bodies aren't even cold yet!" they'll scream every time a mass shooting happens and we want some level of gun control beyond "Let fucking everyone have guns." (Then as soon as an undocumented immigrant kills someone, they'll SCREAM AND SHOUT FROM THE ROOFTOPS how illegal immigration is so dangerous)

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Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 8:40:02 PM
#321:


Corrik7 posted...
Democrat in Alaska seems to think he will win that Senate seat. We will see on that one.

That's crazy talk. The polling would have to be absurdly off in the other direction for this to be even close.

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Corrik7
11/05/20 8:40:22 PM
#322:


https://twitter.com/Olivianuzzi/status/1324519655114002433

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Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 8:40:57 PM
#323:


I feel like Trump is going to win Arizona by as much as Biden wins Pennsylvania at this point.

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Moops?
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Jakyl25
11/05/20 8:42:12 PM
#324:


Suprak the Stud posted...


That's crazy talk. The polling would have to be absurdly off in the other direction for this to be even close.


Well...
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Corrik7
11/05/20 8:42:32 PM
#325:


Suprak the Stud posted...
I feel like Trump is going to win Arizona by as much as Biden wins Pennsylvania at this point.
What? You mean %? Trump is gonna lose PA by 150k.

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HeroDelTiempo17
11/05/20 8:43:47 PM
#326:


KamikazePotato posted...
Democrats can be bad at branding but people never seem willing to admit that maybe voters are fucking stupid and branding is hard when dealing with a populace that runs on a single shared brain cell

It's easy for the GOP because all they have to do is appeal to hateful emotion. Democrats have to actually try

This may be true but I can still blame the political party with money and power that should know all this and sucks at winning elections

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UshiromiyaEva
11/05/20 8:44:17 PM
#327:


Suprak the Stud posted...
I feel like Trump is going to win Arizona by as much as Biden wins Pennsylvania at this point.

No offense, but every single GA update you keep saying "it's getting further" and literally every other analyst is saying "it's getting easier" <_<

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Wanglicious
11/05/20 8:45:18 PM
#328:


PrivateBiscuit1 posted...
Now see, this all seems a lot more reasonable to me. But I don't think this sort of system should be considered at all on a federal level until we havea more stable economy.

well... considering covid is STILL fucking with a bunch of businesses, that's fair.
but the answer there really is that there should be a stimulus to help businesses up front in the first place. if this were to become the policy there should be one of those forgiven loans again where it'd be a case of 'look, hire people at the new min wage standard, get your loan forgiven.'

just spitballing ideas there but do think the two would need to be hand in hand, especially right now.


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Corrik7
11/05/20 8:47:04 PM
#329:


https://twitter.com/KeithOlbermann/status/1324505584117391360

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Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 8:48:01 PM
#330:


Corrik7 posted...
What? You mean %? Trump is gonna lose PA by 150k.

By %, yeah. Not raw vote. Trump is on pace to lose PA by at least 75k (up to 150k depending on percentages).

UshiromiyaEva posted...
No offense, but every single GA update you keep saying "it's getting further" and literally every other analyst is saying "it's getting easier" <_<

So I only did three updates before I gave up on my very rough model! But it was 1.5k loss to 3.5k loss to 1k loss. So what you're saying isn't true.

Also I said that my model was very conservative on how much better Biden did in mail in ballot, and it was egregiously wrong in red counties where Biden did much better than my estimate of a 10 point swing. The problem was I was using a ten point swing based on how he was doing in blue counties, but the swing was actually much more significant in red counties.

And I just quit then because I realized my model was dumb and I'd need to make a more complex one which I didn't feel like whipping up.

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Moops?
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Inviso
11/05/20 8:48:51 PM
#331:


Corrik7 posted...
https://twitter.com/KeithOlbermann/status/1324505584117391360

Don't worry about that. Anyone who tries to remove and arrest the president is just acting of their own accord and it's not Keith Olbermann's fault for saying words.

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Crossfiyah
11/05/20 8:49:47 PM
#332:


https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html?fbclid=IwAR19ksNF0mAKMcLQidewtnl4ghOiN_XgVc4Xe_9SMS5-iI_BrA7vmKM5aiY

Trump isn't even on pace in AZ either right now. We'll see the next Maricopa drop but he's behind now.

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Corrik7
11/05/20 8:50:26 PM
#333:


What would happen if a President literally just pardoned everyone?

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foolm0r0n
11/05/20 8:50:56 PM
#334:


KamikazePotato posted...
Also this is a very useful site:

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Who is this person and what is their gamefaqs username

This is exactly what I wanted and it's straight up a gfaqs contest stats app

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PrivateBiscuit1
11/05/20 8:51:09 PM
#335:


Wanglicious posted...
well... considering covid is STILL fucking with a bunch of businesses, that's fair.
but the answer there really is that there should be a stimulus to help businesses up front in the first place. if this were to become the policy there should be one of those forgiven loans again where it'd be a case of 'look, hire people at the new min wage standard, get your loan forgiven.'

just spitballing ideas there but do think the two would need to be hand in hand, especially right now.
Covid is literally keeping small businesses in a constant state of uncertainty, and adding on a creeping increase in costs for employees doesn't help. But yes, there needs to be a stimulus for small businesses now and isn't one now.

There are ideas they could try, but I feel like anything gets shot down even with Biden in charge, because they would have to be forced to add something that benefits big businesses a lot more to get it through which sucks.

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Corrik7
11/05/20 8:51:12 PM
#336:


Crossfiyah posted...
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html?fbclid=IwAR19ksNF0mAKMcLQidewtnl4ghOiN_XgVc4Xe_9SMS5-iI_BrA7vmKM5aiY

Trump isn't even on pace in AZ either right now. We'll see the next Maricopa drop but he's behind now.
I'd hope not figuring Maricopa isn't reporting yet and it's been blue areas.

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Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 8:51:40 PM
#337:


That big recent one is from Pima, which is why it is closer (only 52% Trump).

Maricopa was much more slanted yesterday. The prediction is today wouldn't be as bad, but if it is Trump is actually ahead of pace. If that website is right and there are that many outstanding votes left.

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Moops?
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#338
Post #338 was unavailable or deleted.
Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 8:53:46 PM
#339:


Corrik7 posted...
What would happen if a President literally just pardoned everyone?

I believe former prisoners have to fight each other in a The Running Man type of scenario.

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Moops?
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masterplum
11/05/20 8:54:06 PM
#340:


Well Georgia went from looking solid Biden to not Biden based on 12000 estimated votes disappearing

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KamikazePotato
11/05/20 8:54:37 PM
#341:


Every other state besides PA is just foreplay anyway

PA is going to be an easy win and that's all he needs

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KamikazePotato
11/05/20 8:55:05 PM
#342:


masterplum posted...
Well Georgia went from looking solid Biden to not Biden based on 12000 estimated votes disappearing
Yeah not sure what's going on there.

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Wanglicious
11/05/20 8:56:55 PM
#343:


Corrik7 posted...
What would happen if a President literally just pardoned everyone?

legit what i expect to be his christmas gift or january finale.


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Jakyl25
11/05/20 8:57:07 PM
#344:


Corrik7 posted...
What would happen if a President literally just pardoned everyone?


But that would include HILLARY
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Hbthebattle
11/05/20 8:57:34 PM
#345:


masterplum posted...
Well Georgia went from looking solid Biden to not Biden based on 12000 estimated votes disappearing
Whered you hear this

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Corrik7
11/05/20 8:57:36 PM
#346:


It appears he can sweeping pardon. Would be crazy to pardon every single person including for crimes committed or that may have been committed in the past. 0.o

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red13n
11/05/20 8:58:02 PM
#347:


foolm0r0n posted...
Who is this person and what is their gamefaqs username

This is exactly what I wanted and it's straight up a gfaqs contest stats app

honestly, the one we have for gamefaqs is better.

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foolm0r0n
11/05/20 8:58:32 PM
#348:


PrivateBiscuit1 posted...
Now see, this all seems a lot more reasonable to me. But I don't think this sort of system should be considered at all on a federal level until we havea more stable economy.
It should never be considered on a federal level.

There's a reason that highly specific NYC scheme sounded good to you. It's perfectly optimized for their local economy. There is no way to do it effectively at a federal or even a state level in many cases. That's what's statists can never get into their heads. If it works in their backyard then there's no chance it won't work on every square inch of the globe.

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Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 8:58:50 PM
#349:


masterplum posted...
Well Georgia went from looking solid Biden to not Biden based on 12000 estimated votes disappearing

Well, couple of things.

A huge chunk of those are from the Atlanta adjacent county that was giving Biden even better margins than Fulton. And there are still a ton of provisional ballots out (3k in Atlanta by itself) that are not included in those totals and are expected to heavily skew Biden. So hope is not lost there yet!

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Corrik7
11/05/20 8:58:54 PM
#350:


masterplum posted...
Well Georgia went from looking solid Biden to not Biden based on 12000 estimated votes disappearing
I believe what happened there was that Fulton batch for 11 some K they added but never took the votes off for it. Imo.

Like I said before, there is only 4 counties left. 1 is Blue. The other 3 red.

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Suprak the Stud
11/05/20 9:00:39 PM
#351:


Hbthebattle posted...
Whered you hear this

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

They updated their total outstanding left. There's is sort of a guess, so it is possible they just thought there was more than there actually are or some counties reported without them realizing.

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