Board 8 > Dems | 1.91 mil | 50.42% | Reps | 1.82 mil | 48.37% [Today's GA Senate Runoff!]

(+) Yeah! (+)

Suprak the Stud posted...

Suburbs have been trending democratic though.

Where you want it to be low is rural areas, I'd think?

Yeah I corrected it, just a brain fart.

Suprak the Stud posted...

Suburbs have been trending democratic though.

Where you want it to be low is rural areas, I'd think?

That's why I said you could take the DeKalb bit either way. As Cohn says in the tweet thread, is it simply an augur that Dem turnout is super high or is it a sign that turnout is going to be up across the board which would play in the favor of the Republican candidates?

I agree that the hearsay has been "turnout high in the cities/suburbs, lower in the rural areas" which is basically the dream scenario for Democrats pulling a victory here but I'm not sure we have much in terms of hard data to validate that hearsay, at least I haven't seen any from any of the usual data guys yet.

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xp1337 posted...

That's why I said you could take the DeKalb bit either way. As Cohn says in the tweet thread, is it simply an augur that Dem turnout is super high or is it a sign that turnout is going to be up across the board which would play in the favor of the Republican candidates?

I agree that the hearsay has been "turnout high in the cities/suburbs, lower in the rural areas" which is basically the dream scenario for Democrats pulling a victory here but I'm not sure we have much in terms of hard data to validate that hearsay, at least I haven't seen any from any of the usual data guys yet.

Yeah, like you and UE I've seen some of the same sort of things from Twitter, but I have a hard time believing it. I'll be watching with interest tonight, but a lot of the promising things I've seen have been somewhat anecdotal or have multiple interpretations or are based on polls and I still have not yet come back around to trusting polls where Trump is involved even tangentially.

This is also such a ridiculous uphill climb. It is a state that just swung blue by the narrowest of margins, against two incumbents, in an off year, when the democrats just won the presidency. If the democrats win then it is a miracle confluence of events (or Trump's messaging of "voting is hopeless abandon hope all ye who enter the voting booth" combined with McConnell's "naw I'm not even putting this wildly popular bill up for a vote" actually made a difference).

I know I bring this up all the time, but after Obama won democrats lost a senate seat like this in Massachusetts and Illinois. Georgia is a much swingier state at the moment and it is really hard to see democrats having an advantage here.

We'll see shortly though!

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I agree, it's hard to tell one way or another.

Other than it seems people are taking the whole deciding the senate seriously. I doubt the percentages in both races will differ by much.

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There's been a huge swing towards the republicans on PredictIt within the last hour. Trying to dig through the replies to see if it is based on anything or if it is just hopeful Republicans jumping on their candidates being under fifty cents. Claims are that voting is up in rural areas too, but I haven't seen any concrete data to back that up so it might just be smoke.

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Unsurprisingly it looks like most people have voted for both candidates from the same party.

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Nate Cohn (NYT/ the needle) saying that Election Day turnout is 6% higher than their model expected (bad for Dems) but that Dems are running 1.5 points higher than expected (good for Dems obv) and that taken together it's a wash. (He goes on to say that such a wash would favor the Dems because the Dems are also ahead of expectations on the early vote and that would still need to be made up somehow)

so this might be a long one

Wasserman (The "I've seen enough" guy) says right now he'd rather be the Dems, especially Warnock.

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Definitely not over, but it seems they are out pacing Biden

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Gwinett County looking very good for Dems, 5 points above their November numbers.

This is the part where we all start shouting STOP THE COUNT right?

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masterplum posted...

This is the part where we all start shouting STOP THE COUNT right?

Only until the numbers swing back, at which point we move over to our COUNT THE VOTE chants.

I hope you all made signs.

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the needle is giving me dangerous levels of hope

i believe in you needle-senpai

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Suprak the Stud posted...

Only until the numbers swing back, at which point we move over to our COUNT THE VOTE chants.

I hope you all made signs.

The real trick is to make a trifold sign with STOP THE | COUNT | THE VOTE and then fold it as appropriate at any given moment!

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Wasserman thinks the Republicans have a turnout problem here.

Would match what I've seen of data people posting county results as they come in with Republican counties hitting around 80% of November turnout pretty consistently while some Atlanta area counties are sitting at 90% November turnout.

Additionally, Dems are outperforming in a number of these counties. Ossoff flipped Washington County where he lost in November.

god i needed a nap but i'm going to stare at a graphic of a needle all night what is my life

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so is this going to be a republicans getting fewer votes because a bunch of people told them everything is rigged situation rather than a democrats got more votes because republicans are bad situations
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MoogleKupo141 posted...

so is this going to be a republicans getting fewer votes because a bunch of people told them everything is rigged situation rather than a democrats got more votes because republicans are bad situations

I mean, it's hard to say.

Runoff elections always see fewer votes cast than general elections (just like midterms see less than presidential years, and off years see even less than those) because people just don't turnout the way they do when the president is up for election, or if it's not the "usual" November time, etc.

This one's a bit unique given the much larger focus on it keeping the interest level higher than usual but Dems - and Stacey Abrams in particular - have been going hard at keeping the momentum going and reaching out to voters and getting the message out.

If these results hold, I would say it's more the Democrats staying locked in and coming out to vote but depending on how close it is you could certainly make the legitimate argument that Trump sowing doubt in the process and that it's all rigged discouraged some Republican voters from coming out to vote. It's impossible to know how many people would be demotivated that way but if the margin is like 3000 votes I think you could definitely argue it played a pivotal role.

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Janus5k posted...

Interesting calculations, though I'll believe a Dem win when I see it and not before.

Though I have wondered if this is going to split 1-1 because there seems like Warnack and Ossoff are going to end like 15k-20 apart at least and that could easily make a difference.

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xp1337 posted...

If these results hold, I would say it's more the Democrats staying locked in and coming out to vote but depending on how close it is you could certainly make the legitimate argument that Trump sowing doubt in the process and that it's all rigged discouraged some Republican voters from coming out to vote. It's impossible to know how many people would be demotivated that way but if the margin is like 3000 votes I think you could definitely argue it played a pivotal role.

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump lost more votes by disgusting people with his lies about fraud than by making people think their vote wouldn't could (probably a pretty small, but potentially decisive, group either way).

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I agree the "demotivated by Trump saying the elections are rigged" group is likely a small group, I imagine most of them still turned out anyway... just if the margin is extremely close it would be legitimate to consider it as a potential tipping factor. If Warnock/Ossoff win by the same margin Biden did, for instance, I think that's too big for that to be all that credible (but of course you'd never know for sure.)

As for Trump's behavior post-November, I mean, you may be right. I imagine exits and analysis after the results are final will delve into details like that. I was just saying that at the moment I would put the current result on "Dems stayed fired up" more than "Republicans just didn't turn out." Both play a role but I'd put more weight on the former than the latter. In particular, rural black voters have turned out in a huge way in some smaller counties - reaching up to 97% of November turnout from what I've seen.

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Yeah, Warnock and Ossoff seem to be consistently running like 3% ahead of Biden in a lot of these counties and given that Biden won the state...

Ossoff flipped a second county from November - Baldwin (was Perdue +1, Biden +1. Today it's Ossoff (and Warnock)+4

I am starting to believe.

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The Republicans will need to do better in what's remaining than we would expect based on how well they've done so far, particularly in the Atlanta area, where virtually no election day votes have been counted.

from the needle

but this is entirely anecdotal but I've seen somehow more support from Dems living in the greater atlanta area for the senate race than I did for Biden before November.

I think Georgia flipping blue has inspired Dems here more than people realize

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With Perdue nominally in the lead, I think it's time for some of our president's dreaded Massive Dumps!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

With Perdue nominally in the lead, I think it's time for some of our president's dreaded Massive Dumps!

so devastating in their percentage and power of destruction

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With the turnout higher than election day, I think this is clearly Democrats were motivated not Republicans stayed home

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masterplum posted...

With the turnout higher than election day, I think this is clearly Democrats were motivated not Republicans stayed home

Wonder why.

Democratic Base: "The runoffs are critical to the continued well-being of our country."
Trump: "IT'S ALL RIGGED!"

Oh, right.

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Estimated 1.6m votes remaining to be counted. 650k Election Day, 682k Early Vote, 202k Mail-in.

Update: Significant chunk just came in. Make that 1.3m estimated left. 600k Election Day, 490k Early, 175k Mail-in

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346647684900417536

Wasserman has seen enough and calls the special runoff for Warnock. (Needle has Warnock at 80% chance but Cohn has said separately that he believes the needle is overestimating the uncertainty in both races and it should be higher than it is displaying)

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The gap between the Dem candidates still is alarming to me.

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I'm not prepared to say Ossoff absolutely has this, but he was always going to run a bit behind Warnock.

Loeffler is like... the worst candidate lol. She was appointed, not elected, to her seat on top of that so incumbency advantage isn't really there for her. That's why there's a gap between the two.

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its funnier to imagine that Loeffler is doing worse than Purdue solely because Georgians are sexist, so Im going to believe thats the reason
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I mean, the irony is that if you remember back when that appointment was happening - Kemp appointed her under the apparent rationale she was the more electable candidate and could appeal to suburban women and better defend that seat compared to Trump who was demanding Collins for the seat.

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MoogleKupo141 posted...

its funnier to imagine that Loeffler is doing worse than Purdue solely because Georgians are sexist, so Im going to believe thats the reason

But they're also racist.

But above all else, they're anti-Semitic.

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Crescent-Moon posted...

The gap between the Dem candidates still is alarming to me.

Loeffler is a terrible candidate

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As everyone else said, it is absolutely insane how awful Loeffler is, to the point that I'm sure Warnock/Perdue tickets have at least somewhat noteable numbers.

xp1337 posted...

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346647684900417536

Wasserman has seen enough and calls the special runoff for Warnock. (Needle has Warnock at 80% chance but Cohn has said separately that he believes the needle is overestimating the uncertainty in both races and it should be higher than it is displaying)

Lol they're hitting Wasserman with the flag now?

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Lol they're hitting Wasserman with the flag now?

Eh, I don't mind. No one else has called it yet.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Lol they're hitting Wasserman with the flag now?

LOL, I mean gotta be fair. I do think it's an early call. They would have slapped the same thing on Fox for Arizona had we been in the current climate at the time.

LordoftheMorons posted...

Lol they're hitting Wasserman with the flag now?

lmao yep

Wasn't when I made that post but they must have tagged it in the past few minutes.

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MoogleKupo141 posted...

its funnier to imagine that Loeffler is doing worse than Purdue solely because Georgians are sexist, so Im going to believe thats the reason

It's even funnier when you have Marjorie Taylor Greene talking about needing a man to lead the House!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Lol they're hitting Wasserman with the flag now?

Yeah I gotta say it's fair even though I obviously trust Wasserman.

Paratroopa1 posted...

Yeah I gotta say it's fair even though I obviously trust Wasserman.

Yeah I dont think its a huge deal since it does technically break the rule, but it obviously would have never happened without all of the election lies from Trump and co

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Lol they're hitting Wasserman with the flag now?

This is why those censorship flags are ridiculous.

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That "needle" thing (if you're referring to the NYT thing I just looked up) is getting pretty close to calling that race too.

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The Needle is indeed the NYT thing. I linked to it earlier in the topic at like Post 43 a little before polls closed.

It is our prophet.

More seriously that page in general has basically all the data you could hope for. Votes counted /Estimated left - both broken down by Election Day / Early / Mail. County breakdowns for both counted and estimated. The latest vote dumps, the types of vote they primarily consisted of, what the model expected it to be, what it actually was, etc.

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Also, if things play out the way expected, it also proves how much polls normalize when Trump is not on the ballot. Warnock was running 1-2 points ahead of Loeffler, and Ossoff slightly less. It's looking like that will happen.

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Can we get betting going on how many times Ulti is going to flip flop between "It's rigged!" and "It was a foregone conclusion, duh, I called it months ago!" this time

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