Board 8 > Final Fantasy 14 Mafia - Day 4: Past the Far Edge of Fate

(+) Yeah! (+)

Been watching from the sidelines because holy hell I tell everyone I'm worse than useless and just wanted to feel important than it circled into a shit spiral. But whatever.

I'm like 95% certain Tidus is one. As for pairings of individual suspicions:

With Crescent: she's been offering so little with so many words. I don't buy the divinity claim one bit, and the role boiling down to "trust me bro" is a big ehn. Also accused me of Godfather when I never even realized Godfather would scan as good, and asked as such with "that's a thing?

With Mike: I could see it. It's basically agreed that even with the supposed scan ability they get lynched soon by everyone. I still think today is not the day for it, as some things in the background don't add up (such as Scare voting him on the way out.)

With MZero: doubtful, but the suspicion's there. I'm still more inclined to think it was a single use shot that *caused* scanner abilities, since that'd be fitting with Y'shtola. Or the scanner ability is being bullshitted for feeling important, like I did with the surveillance claim.

With plum: circumstantially nonsuspicious (Chris surveilling a roleblocker,) which makes them suspicious as a result, but way far down the list at the moment. Still, it resides in the back of my mind, with how they've been voting, and keep throwing shade my way without offering anything in return.

With red: I can buy a doctor claim at this point, and think tempering might just be a flavor trap (if it isn't, kill Crescent, the only one here so far that has claimed a literal primal.) If not dead tomorrow, though, priority one to lynch.

If I'm wrong about Tidus, presuming 3 scum, we're screwed anyway, but other likely pairings:
Red/Mzero
Mike/Crescent
Red/Crescent

About to head to bed, but right now I'm thinking Tidus + Mzero/Red is my scum pair of choice. Mzero/Red because I want to see how the next couple flips as well as the night's actions go.

I'm also going (back to) bed. 7 AM here, only awake from trash company doing their pickups.

Tidus seems like bad town to me. His reasoning has been fairly nonsensical.

it wouldnt shock me if he is scum, but I think its less likely than alternatives

Did we ever get an answer on why the hell red would Doctor scare N1? That seems like an obvious scum doc target

Tidus hasn't done much and is all over the place but I don't feel like his posts are coming from scum. Chris liked him, too. I'm pretty much in the same boat as plum

He screams mislynch bait to me and I'm kind of suspicious of people pushing him. Then again I was already suspicious of Isquen anyway

Also Mike is a bulletproof scanner and scum just were like "nah we're good" and didn't block him? Instead blocked plum who iirc hasn't claimed? That seems really off

MZero posted...

Also Mike is a bulletproof scanner and scum just were like "nah we're good" and didn't block him? Instead blocked plum who iirc hasn't claimed? That seems really off

My thinking is they could have blocked me on the phycological fallacy that a boat is a boat, but a box could be anything. It could even be a boat.

Its not a nail in mikes coffin, but it does make me leery

I think my rankings are

1. Red
2. Mike
3. Isquen

right now

do you think Mother Porxie is a scum flavor or do you think that's not his flavor?

MZero posted...

do you think Mother Porxie is a scum flavor or do you think that's not his flavor?

I've never played 14 so I can't weigh in on that, but it wouldn't shock me if he claimed real info under the heat of a scanner claim

If we somehow throw the game on mother porxie being scum flavor...holy hell plum.

speaking of which, the only reason I claimed today was to avoid a situation where red is lynched while I'm not around to confirm that he was at least truthful about his flavor

We've literally spent 2 expansions healing the tempered with porxies spat out by mother porxie. And tempering has been something we hadn't been able to fix since the launch of the game

So I sort-of-slept sort-of-hallucinated on it and I think I owe MZero an apology.

If he's town, he's actually played his role pretty damned well. Disappearing night 1 WIFOMs everyone, and then he comes back with a scan night 2 that no one sees coming, and puts potential fear into the scumteam that he can disappear again.

I'm willing to say in all likelihood that MZero is town. MZero being town means Mike can't be. This means we don't know if Mike's "scans" are even real in the first place.

Isquen suddenly accusing me of claiming a power I don't have is cute... And desperate. Isquen has gotten significantly more hostile towards me since I suggested he played to bait a scan. Regardless, I really can't find any town motive to anything he's done regarding his claim. All we need to do is make sure there's no hammer today and I can get this thing off. Not that it's actually going to achieve anything, but.... Onto the next point.

Isquen posted... Mzero, really, with the "flavor scan" thing? What's next, the dead banana twins walk out of plum's locked house because plum has corpse scanning that also gets to revive on scan?

...that actually sounds like an Emet-Selch ability and Mzero *did* die night one. Which would make Mzero scum aligned too.

Isquen also tried to flavor meta MZero as scum. This was before Mike even voted for MZero, and Isquen completely dropped the point once he realized the lynch wasn't going to fly.

For the record, I think we have to lynch Mike here, because he's the most certain "not-town" on the board, but I'd be genuinely surprised if Isquen was town.

Leafeon13N posted...

We've literally spent 2 expansions healing the tempered with porxies spat out by mother porxie. And tempering has been something we hadn't been able to fix since the launch of the game

I still have 0 idea what tempering is or who/what would even temper people in the first place.

Someone mentioned something about "primals" earlier, and I asked about that, but no one responded to me.

Primals are essentially little mini deities summoned by beast tribes. They had been more traditional ff summons(ifrit, garuda, titan, etc).

Its gone beyond that since then but the gist of it is that anyone that comes into contact with them falls under their thrall.

Its had varying results, short exposure essentially leaving characters in a near zombified state to full enthrallment with more exposure.

Crescent-Moon posted...

So I sort-of-slept sort-of-hallucinated on it and I think I owe MZero an apology.

If he's town, he's actually played his role pretty damned well. Disappearing night 1 WIFOMs everyone, and then he comes back with a scan night 2 that no one sees coming, and puts potential fear into the scumteam that he can disappear again.

I appreciate the apology! and I don't blame you for your initial reaction all things considered

Anyway. Basic gameplay chain here...the only scenario in which I am scum necessitates mzero being scum.

From an outside perspective looking at me is just atrocious play.

I could be town or scum if mzero is scum but if I am scum it would require mzero to be scum at this point.

Unless you think mother porxie is scum and dont want to do the most basic of flavor research to show that this is literally one of the most ridiculous things brought up this game.

To sum up. I woke up in the middle of the night to see plum saying things that make me want to slam my head into the wall and am not happy. Theoretically he should be town and that makes it really frustrating.

MikeTavish posted...

Explain why we shouldn't lynch you today, Tidus. Tell us what you think about everyone.

I can't answer that first part clearly without looking more sus, so let's just say... it's because other people are more sus and more likely to be scum

you look pretty sus right now, along with Isquen, Mzero playing his role well is a good point, but why the sudden switch from not playing his role well, to playing his role well? He is still on my sus list, but lower now. Crescent seems fine. I am still not sure about Red. Nothing changed with what I think of plum.

Leafeon13N posted...

Anyway. Basic gameplay chain here...the only scenario in which I am scum necessitates mzero being scum.

From an outside perspective looking at me is just atrocious play.

I could be town or scum if mzero is scum but if I am scum it would require mzero to be scum at this point.

Unless you think mother porxie is scum and dont want to do the most basic of flavor research to show that this is literally one of the most ridiculous things brought up this game.

*Puts on tin foil hat*

MZero is probably town, which leaves us with this:

For Plum to be scum, scum would need to have a role that can trick a motion detector.

For Red to be scum, scum would need to have a role that can trick flavor cop.

Given how weak a "godfather" Scare was, it's possible.

But it's not a rabbit hole to go down right now.

To help, scum is almost certainly comprised of these:

https://finalfantasy.fandom.com/wiki/Ascian

Of which for the love of everything mother porxie has absolutely 0 connection to.

TidusOfTheX posted...

I can't answer that first part clearly without looking more sus, so let's just say... it's because other people are more sus and more likely to be scum

you look pretty sus right now, along with Isquen, Mzero playing his role well is a good point, but why the sudden switch from not playing his role well, to playing his role well? He is still on my sus list, but lower now. Crescent seems fine. I am still not sure about Red. Nothing changed with what I think of plum.

MZero played this like total crap if he was just a commuter and not a commuter scanner.

MZero posted...

Tidus hasn't done much and is all over the place but I don't feel like his posts are coming from scum. Chris liked him, too. I'm pretty much in the same boat as plum

Where are we getting that Chris was ok with him?

Did a quick scan of yesterday and didn't see much.

Leafeon13N posted...

Where are we getting that Chris was ok with him?

Did a quick scan of yesterday and didn't see much.

He did this on day 2.

Said something like "Tidus is my favorite keep him alive" fairly late in the day.

DoomTheGyarados posted... Keep tidus safe at all costs he is my favorite.

Post 262 of topic 2.

That seems to be predicated entirely on him buttering up chris' suspicion of crescent if I'm reading this correctly.

We could throw up another post of chris calling isquen town from way earlier for that matter(i have had this one in memory because it was shared sentiment with me).

Crescent-Moon posted...

For the record, I think we have to lynch Mike here

I agree with this

##Vote: Mike

Day 2 votals say if Mike is scum still he was very likely not lying about being third party. I think that is almost certainly the wrong play.

Leafeon13N posted...

We could throw up another post of chris calling isquen town from way earlier for that matter(i have had this one in memory because it was shared sentiment with me).

This happened on day 1, I believe. I had forgotten about both of these until they were just brought back up.

Day 2 started with Chris and Ulti calling me scum. Ulti called me town later in the day, and Chris stopped talking about me after like, page 3 or 4, and never spoke about me again, including on day 3.

I kind of feel like that post about Tidus has nothing to do with suspicion of me, but I don't remember what it was about, and it's probably not worth looking into.

Crescent-Moon posted...

I kind of feel like that post about Tidus has nothing to do with suspicion of me, but I don't remember what it was about, and it's probably not worth looking into.

You dont? Because it was literally tidus saying to scan and/or lynch you.

Oh. That's what I get for not looking into it.

That means what Tidus did was probably based on Ulti still calling me scum at the time, which suggests at least up until that point Chris still probably thought I was.

If you want to lynch Mike I would like to hear the case on why his scum partners voted and played day 2 the way they did.

Crescent-Moon posted...

That means what Tidus did was probably based on Ulti still calling me scum at the time, which suggests at least up until that point Chris still probably thought I was.

I mean, i didn't read ultis posts right now but it is literally right in the middle of chris and tisus calling you scum at least.

Leafeon13N posted...

If you want to lynch Mike I would like to hear the case on why his scum partners voted and played day 2 the way they did.

Mike is much more likely to be 3P than scum, but I think he has easily the highest chance of being not-town, because Mike and MZero cannot both be town together, and I think MZero is town.

We need to hit not-town today. Going for our highest probability of doing that is the correct play.

I just realized that my ipad probably did not charge last night, currently at 17%, I will not be able to charge it until about 3:00

saying this in advance just so that you know I may not be able to answer some questions later in the day

(went down to 15% just from typing this, WHY)

Hitting 3rd party doesn't solve anything. It is exactly what we shouldn't be looking to do.

2 scum in 5 doesn't put us in a better position than 2-1 in 7.

In fact it makes it worse.

Basically, crescent you have just made the decision to not lynch Mike.

So who do you think the two scum are?

Leafeon13N posted...

Basically, crescent you have just made the decision to not lynch Mike.

So who do you think the two scum are?

If we believe all the power that's claimed, and believe all the scans, it has to be Isquen and Tidus, but that doesn't feel right at all.

There is too much claimed town power for the game to be as simple as "lynch the vanilla claims". It seems to be universally agreed on that it's a 3-person scumteam, which is under that "25%-33%" threshhold. Death being the only vanilla means the game is either imbalanced very poorly, or something is "off" and we've yet to see through it.

I kind of don't believe Mike's even a scanner. My biggest worry there is Mike is 3P and pulls a kill out of his ass at endgame.

Let me put this in your perspective based on what you've said.

You think mzero is town. By extension that makes me town. You probably think plum is town due to chris scan, i think this is fair.

That leaves mike/tidus/isquen.

So you are saying you want to lynch from this pool to end the game, yes?

Crescent-Moon posted...

I kind of don't believe Mike's even a scanner. My biggest worry there is Mike is 3P and pulls a kill out of his ass at endgame

This just doesn't seem rational, tbh.

Leafeon13N posted...

Let me put this in your perspective based on what you've said.

You think mzero is town. By extension that makes me town. You probably think plum is town due to chris scan, i think this is fair.

That leaves mike/tidus/isquen.

So you are saying you want to lynch from this pool to end the game, yes?

Nope. If you're town, you're being too narrow. There's two things that are glaring right now:

We don't know if third party Mike is actually a cop. So, we don't know if a cop even exists.

I think even if Mike got cop powers from sacrificing Ulti, there's a solid chance scum has another role that can trick a scanner claim, aside from "I get destroyed by flavor scanner" Scare.

Scare beats cop (that may not exist), loses to flavor scanner.

Someone else beats flavor scanner or motion detector, loses to cop (that may not exist).

That's what I'm paranoid about. Tidus/Isquen seems FAR too easy to be correct.

Leafeon13N posted...

This just doesn't seem rational, tbh.

Rationality doesn't apply to this game. That's the problem.

Well actually Isquen would be the one who beats cop in that scenario what am I smoking.

Wait no, because that would make two scum that beat cop. The point is I think there's a scum who beats something else.

If Mike even is cop.

Which he probably isn't.

My head hurts.

Just curious, why do you trust mzero so much?

Because one thing hanging over our heads is plum still claiming an unspecified power.

Leafeon13N posted...

Just curious, why do you trust mzero so much?

Because one thing hanging over our heads is plum still claiming an unspecified power.

I trust him more than Mike, though I dislike that he didn't STC with you, and only claimed after. This made the information he claimed easy to fake.

I can see a scenario where Scare just rolls over and dies for him after MZero's vote leads to him quickly but unexpectedly leads him to -2. MZero being scum is possible.

But, Mike being not-town is highly probable, and if Mike flipped scum (though I wouldn't expect this), MZero is virtually town confirmed.

But really I kind of feel like leaving Mike alive is "leashing the SK" and that almost never goes well.

Anyway, i need to get some sleep. I'm going to reiterate what i said the first night of today, i think tidus pairs as scum with every possible candidate. I think hes the safe lynch. But I really want to see more arguments. Particularly pertaining to who is paired with who and why.

Crescent-Moon posted...

But really I kind of feel like leaving Mike alive is "leashing the SK" and that almost never goes well.

Hes not SK is something we could reasonably guess. Hell if we are going to tinfoil plum could be actual SK.

(We dont have an SK, I would wager)