Board 8 > Final Fantasy 14 Mafia - Day 4: Past the Far Edge of Fate

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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:04:20 AM
#301:


Leafeon13N posted...
Hes not SK is something we could reasonably guess. Hell if we are going to tinfoil plum could be actual SK.

(We dont have an SK, I would wager)
If Plum is SK that's been roleblock spammed that would be funny.

But it's more of a "letting 3rd parties stay around usually ends up doing a lot of harm" thing.

Say we lynch Isquen or Tidus today and we hit scum. Mike knows that he's getting autolynched in an endgame scenario.

Mike has no motive to side with town the next day. He's claimed to have scanning powers and he's going to be aiming for a mislynch. What stops him from landing a "convenient scan" that leads to a mislynch?

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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:11:17 AM
#302:


Again, assuming hes some sort of killing role seems misguided, your planning for him playing for an endgame scenario that doesn't exist.

If he dies and flips third party we got to 2-3 and that isn't a better situation than we are in today.
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:11:58 AM
#303:


So I've been doing this breakdown in my head:

Say we lynch a scum

We have 1v1v3.

Mike actively sides with scum and fakes a scan to get a mislynch.

Now we're 1v1v1 and a BP third party. We're screwed.

---
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:13:30 AM
#304:


Leafeon13N posted...
Again, assuming hes some sort of killing role seems misguided, your planning for him playing for an endgame scenario that doesn't exist.

If he dies and flips third party we got to 2-3 and that isn't a better situation than we are in today.
Mike is going to be autolynched in an endgame scenario, and he knows it. Mike has no reason to help us reach a situation where all the scum are dead in the final 3/4.

---
So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten!
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:14:24 AM
#305:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Mike actively sides with scum and fakes a scan to get a mislynch
Motivation for this is just tinfoil hatting.
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:15:17 AM
#306:


Leafeon13N posted...
Motivation for this is just tinfoil hatting.
How is this tinfoil hatting? Mike is an autolynch if all the scum are gone, and the game is still going.

---
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:16:15 AM
#307:


But really, what you're basically saying with that is Mike in that scenario will effectively give up on trying to win and instead help us lynch scum.

After all Mike has been through, that's what's crazy.

---
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:17:19 AM
#308:


Basically. As claimed hes a third party survivor that guarantees scum 1 mislynch.

That essentially makes the scumteam 3 of 12. Which makes some sense.
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:18:55 AM
#309:


Leafeon13N posted...
Basically. As claimed hes a third party survivor that guarantees scum 1 mislynch.

That essentially makes the scumteam 3 of 12. Which makes some sense.
If Mike is specifically survivor, he has no motivation to try to lynch scum today.

Because he would effectively be a third scum and would win on any mislynch.

---
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:19:04 AM
#310:


Crescent-Moon posted...
How is this tinfoil hatting? Mike is an autolynch if all the scum are gone, and the game is still going.
This is in fact tinfoil hatting. You are saying the game continues in this scenario which we have no reason to believe.
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:20:53 AM
#311:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Mike is specifically survivor, he has no motivation to try to lynch scum today.
Survivor might be the wrong word, but his motivation in that scenario is his biggest risk of losing is us lynching him. If he is bulletproof he has no reason to fear scum and thus has the best outcome by simply playing as town.
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TidusOfTheX
02/09/22 11:20:55 AM
#312:


Ipad 1%
see ya

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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:21:49 AM
#313:


Basically you are arguing for an SK like endgane scenario when there is no evidence of SK.
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:22:08 AM
#314:


Leafeon13N posted...
Survivor might be the wrong word, but his motivation in that scenario is his biggest risk of losing is us lynching him. If he is bulletproof he has no reason to fear scum and thus has the best outcome by simply playing as town.
The biggest risk of losing is being lynched.

So as Survivor, the best way to win would be to get a mislynch as fast as possible before the third party fear gets him killed.

---
So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten!
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:23:07 AM
#315:


Leafeon13N posted...
Basically you are arguing for an SK like endgane scenario when there is no evidence of SK.
And you're arguing a survivor that doesn't fear nightkills wouldn't try to win the game as quickly as possible.

---
So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten!
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:24:04 AM
#316:


Again, survivor was probably the wrong word to use. You are looking at it wrong. No one should be looking to lynch third party in our current scenario.
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:27:16 AM
#317:


Why intentionally put us in a 2v3 scenario where we dont gain information on who the 2 are with the prior lynch.
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:27:29 AM
#318:


Leafeon13N posted...
Again, survivor was probably the wrong word to use. You are looking at it wrong. No one should be looking to lynch third party in our current scenario.
All you've really done is make even more of a case of why we can't trust Mike or anything he says or claims to have scanned.

---
So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten!
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:29:00 AM
#319:


Sure, doesn't mean he is who we should be lynching.
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:29:15 AM
#320:


Leafeon13N posted...
Why intentionally put us in a 2v3 scenario where we dont gain information on who the 2 are with the prior lynch.
Because it's still better than 1v1v3 with a third party claimed scanner we can't trust to side with town.

At least in 2v3, we know what we're dealing with.

---
So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten!
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:31:11 AM
#321:


That is simply not true. 2v3 is very dangerous.
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:33:23 AM
#322:


You have 1 person that -might- not side with town vs two that -wont- side with town.

How do you look at that and say that with a straight face.
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:34:28 AM
#323:


Leafeon13N posted...
That is simply not true. 2v3 is very dangerous.
Both scenarios are dangerous.

Say we lynch Isquen or Tidus, they flip scum.

Mike comes in with a "scum scan" tomorrow.

What do we do?

---
So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten!
... Copied to Clipboard!
Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:35:39 AM
#324:


You kill mike he flips third party you learn nothing. Scum kills one target roleblocks the other you learned nothing from the lynch gained no scans and now you've got two scum in cahoots that only need to convince one town.
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:36:22 AM
#325:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Mike comes in with a "scum scan" tomorrow.

What do we do?
This is why picking pairs is more important today.
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:40:15 AM
#326:


To add, we have a general idea of at least some of mikes power. If we hit scum today, we gain the benefit of knowing what scum is packing and being able to link people together.

You hit mike find out he flips third party there is high potential to gaij nothing and be in 2v3 with no knowledge gained.
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:42:36 AM
#327:


If you want to make the case Mike is just scum feel free, its possible. But I would like to hear how you justify his and his partners day 2 playing out because i dont see it right now.
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:43:24 AM
#328:


Leafeon13N posted...
This is why picking pairs is more important today.
We have a pair we actually somehow end up agreeing on. Mike says he scanned the other one as town.

What do we do?

Though yes, I do get the point. We're more likely to learn something from a scum lynch.

---
So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten!
... Copied to Clipboard!
Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:44:31 AM
#329:


Leafeon13N posted...
If you want to make the case Mike is just scum feel free, its possible. But I would like to hear how you justify his and his partners day 2 playing out because i dont see it right now.
I don't believe Mike is "scum" and I don't believe there's much of an argument for it.

I wouldn't say it's strictly impossible, but it's very unlikely.

---
So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten!
... Copied to Clipboard!
Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:46:53 AM
#330:


Crescent-Moon posted...
We have a pair we actually somehow end up agreeing on. Mike says he scanned the other one as town.

What do we do?
We look at all the info we have and see if it makes sense. At the very least it is 3 of us together.

Its the same situation as if you lynch tidus, he flips third party, and then mzero pops up saying someone is emet selch or whatever. Except in that situation you have two scum working together.
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:48:18 AM
#331:


I fudged some names there you know what i meant.
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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 11:48:52 AM
#332:


I'm definitely awake many hours later than i should be at this point.
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Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:49:39 AM
#333:


I just had a thought about information. Speaking of Mike's "scans"

If we lynched Isquen and got a flip that clearly isn't godfather-ish, we immediately know Mike is making them up.

---
So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten!
... Copied to Clipboard!
Crescent-Moon
02/09/22 11:50:38 AM
#334:


Leafeon13N posted...
I'm definitely awake many hours later than i should be at this point.
Isn't it... Almost 9am for you? Isn't this early?

---
So a planet's somewhere out there, their history the same as ours is written. The only difference is that... Everyone's a kitten!
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MZero
02/09/22 12:01:08 PM
#335:


Leafeon13N posted...
I'm definitely awake many hours later than i should be at this point.

Same, going to bed

Tbh I think we just lynch mike/isquen/tidus and win either way

---
MZero, to the extreme
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masterplum
02/09/22 12:22:28 PM
#336:


Red, did you explain your rational for your targets at all?

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masterplum
02/09/22 12:23:41 PM
#337:


My biggest issue with killing mike is I don't trust Town Tidus in a 3v2 honestly

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PunishedBen
02/09/22 1:28:34 PM
#338:


[2]Tidus - Isquen, Mike
[2]Mike - Mzero, Tidus
[1]Isquen - Plum, (Tidus)
[0]Mzero - (Mike)
[0]Red - (Mzero), (Mike), (Isquen)

WITH 7 ALIVE, IT TAKES 4 VOTES TO LYNCH. DAY ENDS WEDNESDAY AT 8PM EST

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TidusOfTheX
02/09/22 3:22:15 PM
#339:


I'm back! I see not much happened
masterplum posted...
My biggest issue with killing mike is I don't trust Town Tidus in a 3v2 honestly
Why is that plum?

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MikeTavish
02/09/22 4:13:53 PM
#340:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Mike has no motive to side with town the next day. He's claimed to have scanning powers and he's going to be aiming for a mislynch. What stops him from landing a "convenient scan" that leads to a mislynch?

??? No motive? I literally can't win the game unless town wins. Have you seen my play since day 1? I pretty clearly am on town's side.

I'm obviously not SK, I can't be survivor (unless you think I had to target ulti for a 1v1, beat him, AND live until the end of the game to win, which LOL), so what is left? Either I'm telling the truth or I'm scum. (Or I guess I'm some weird unique third party that wants mafia to win and gets to outright force a 1v1 lynch every night until I find the WoL or die, which is also laughable)

If you think I've been mafia this whole time I would like to thank you for the compliment because it means I convinced town to lynch town BP over a mafia member.

Unfortunately I'm not that good and the fact is I've been telling the truth the whole time.

And I see Tidus came in while I was asleep, said not very much and countervoted me. Shocking turn of events. My vote stays where it is.

Also Murphy's Law states I'm absolutely going to get a guilty scan tonight and it's gonna suuuuck trying to convince y'all I'm still not lying.

---
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MikeTavish
02/09/22 4:14:39 PM
#341:


TidusOfTheX posted...
I can't answer that first part clearly without looking more sus

Also, what does this mean?

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TidusOfTheX
02/09/22 4:26:13 PM
#342:


MikeTavish posted...
Also, what does this mean?
It means there is pretty much no clear answer I can give that would make town lynch me less.

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TidusOfTheX
02/09/22 4:27:09 PM
#343:


TidusOfTheX posted...
It means there is pretty much no clear answer I can give that would make town want to lynch me less.
Forgot one part of this

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masterplum
02/09/22 4:47:39 PM
#344:


TidusOfTheX posted...
I'm back! I see not much happened

Why is that plum?

I don't think you are very good at mafia

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TidusOfTheX
02/09/22 4:53:29 PM
#345:


masterplum posted...
I don't think you are very good at mafia
Well, this is my first game, so obviously i am not very good

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Leafeon13N
02/09/22 5:00:00 PM
#346:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Isn't it... Almost 9am for you? Isn't this early?
You were half right. About the 9am part.
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masterplum
02/09/22 5:01:19 PM
#347:


TidusOfTheX posted...
Well, this is my first game, so obviously i am not very good

I know! Not an insult! But it does make me nervous leaving you in a final 5

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TidusOfTheX
02/09/22 5:06:14 PM
#348:


masterplum posted...
I know! Not an insult! But it does make me nervous leaving you in a final 5
Well, our goal is to get rid of potential mafia, not get rid of newbie towns, so it will do no good to lynch me if that is what you are trying to say

mafia will probably not get rid of me due to being a vanilla and being a newbie player that probably won't help that much though

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masterplum
02/09/22 5:11:43 PM
#349:


masterplum posted...
Red, did you explain your rational for your targets at all?


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red13n
02/09/22 5:13:10 PM
#350:


Yes

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