Current Events > Putin really screwed this up big time, which is worrisome

(+) Yeah! (+)

His best bet was for this invasion to take 1-2 days at best, face minimal resistance and allow him to establish a puppet regime with minimal bloodshed.

The problem is that everything is being live-streamed online, and Russian forces are taking much longer than he anticipated. Because of this, even China and Hungary have ultimately turned against Russia due to the political ramifications not being worth the minimal benefit they get from it.

He also did an uncharacteristically terrible job of justifying his actions - to the point where even Russian state media have had to find increasingly bizarre and irrational explanations for how Ukraine is the aggressor in this conflict. His clamp down on social media is backfiring spectacularly.

But what worries me is that Putin is like Trump except significantly more competent, which makes him significantly more dangerous.

Being abandoned by China and his other allies means he's more likely to do something incredibly bad, because this is his one power play and he's going to take it.

I don't expect a nuclear exchange, but I can see him carpet bombing cities just to spite the West.

Putin thrives when he controls all information exchange, and has allies that play along (or turn a blind eye). China and India voting "abstain" at the UN Security Council meeting was a huge red flag that they don't have any interest in playing along with his ruse. I'm just worried about what he'll do with his back against the wall.

Yeah, while there are a number of avenues towards a ceasefire or a peace treaty many of them are effectively blocked by the fact that it would require Putin to more or less admit fault. I wouldn't be shocked if he pulled some sort of grand gesture in the zeroth hour and then unceremoniously retreated and started claiming that their mission had been accomplished in "demilitarizing" ukraine while leaving the door open for future military operations if he again feels Russia is being threatened, mainly so that they have something to put on the table for negotiating.

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China was never going to be on Russia's side on this particular one because they want to leave the door open for reclaiming Taiwan and to that end they want to really heavily emphasize the importance of territorial sovereignty.

s0nicfan posted...

Yeah, while there are a number of avenues towards a ceasefire or a peace treaty many of them are effectively blocked by the fact that it would require Putin to more or less admit fault. I wouldn't be shocked if he pulled some sort of grand gesture in the zeroth hour and then unceremoniously retreated and started claiming that their mission had been accomplished in "demilitarizing" ukraine while leaving the door open for future military operations if he again feels Russia is being threatened, mainly so that they have something to put on the table for negotiating.

There's almost no way he could do that without looking like he "lost" and people like Putin are utterly obsessed with keeping up the appearance of being a "Strong Man."

DarkRoast posted...

There's almost no way he could do that without looking like he "lost" and people like Putin are utterly obsessed with keeping up the appearance of being a "Strong Man."

Right, well unfortunately the odds of him legitimately winning continue to drop so at this point it's more about finding an avenue for him to lose but still claim victory. At this point I feel like the only three remaining paths forward are Russia legitimately decimating Ukraine because they aren't able to overthrow the government, Russian oligarchs throwing Putin under the bus and arresting him in the hopes that handing him over for war crimes is enough for the West to lift all sanctions against russia, or this third option of Russia retreating on their own terms and claiming victory.

And while I understand some of those options are highly unlikely, I consider Russia handing Putin over still more likely than Putin openly accepting defeat.

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IIRC just yesterday Russian state media was boasting about how India and China already promised support at the UN. They're having a complete Baghdad Bob-style misinformation meltdown.

DarkRoast posted...

IIRC just yesterday Russian state media was boasting about how India and China already promised support at the UN. They're having a complete Baghdad Bob-style misinformation meltdown.

I don't know if they're still doing it, but for a long time yesterday they were claiming that they had suffered 0 casualties so far in Ukraine.

GranolaPanic posted...

Putin would be a fool to authorize a nuclear strike. Not only would Russia be wiped off the face of the planet in retaliation. But this entire attack is to gain control of Ukraines fertile farmland. It becoming radioactive would defeat the purpose of this.

He doesn't have to authorize a nuclear strike. Their advance has largely avoided support structures because they don't want to destroy the country, just puppet it. He could just as easily order regular strikes on infrastructure and roads to cripple them.

It doesn't help that Putin made China look bad by having China run a bunch of state propaganda about how the West was just drumming up drama and that there clearly was no invasion in the works.

UnholyMudcrab posted...

I don't know if they're still doing it, but for a long time yesterday they were claiming that they had suffered 0 casualties so far in Ukraine.

They seem to have resorted to the kinds of draconian news control strategies that would've worked before the era of livestreaming social media, but now just make them look like clueless dicks.

He really is making enemies fast. Somebody could always send in a special ops team to take him out. Nobody would have to know who did it. Although everybody would assume America.

There's a chance that Russia can still win, but it's becoming increasingly unlikely.
I've read estimates that, should Ukraine hold out for just a couple more days, the Russian logistical chain will start to fall apart, and will collapse entirely within a week. Some suggest they've already depleted a third of their ballistic missiles.

Thompson posted...

There's a chance that Russia can still win, but it's becoming increasingly unlikely.
I've read estimates that, should Ukraine hold out for just a couple more days, the Russian logistical chain will start to fall apart, and will collapse entirely within a week. Some suggest they've already depleted a third of their ballistic missiles.

IIRC Germany actually sent them anti-air defense stuff yesterday and today.

But realistically - Russia already "lost" this, even if they "win." But the longer they keep fighting, the more they lose on the world stage.

It doesn't help that he inadvertently turned Zelenskyy into an overnight hero.

Thompson posted...

There's a chance that Russia can still win, but it's becoming increasingly unlikely.
I've read estimates that, should Ukraine hold out for just a couple more days, the Russian logistical chain will start to fall apart, and will collapse entirely within a week. Some suggest they've already depleted a third of their ballistic missiles.

They've already reached the point of supply lines falling apart, really. Their vehicles are running out of fuel and their convoys are getting picked off.

UnholyMudcrab posted...

They've already reached the point of supply lines falling apart, really. Their vehicles are running of out fuel and their convoys are getting picked off.

I can't even imagine how confused the Russian troops must be - apparently they were told it was all supposed to be a drill, and now they have basically no backup because nobody planned for there to be any.

I know it's been long suspected that Russia really hasn't ever been anywhere near as powerful or as stable post-USSR as it tries to convey, but boy they are livestreaming it for all of us to see.

DarkRoast posted...

IIRC Germany actually sent them anti-air defense stuff yesterday and today.

But realistically - Russia already "lost" this, even if they "win." But the longer they keep fighting, the more they lose on the world stage.

It doesn't help that he inadvertently turned Zelenskyy into an overnight hero.

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Once Putin retreats the Russian troops and claims victory with more mental gymnastics, the rest of us have to just remember to look really bitter like sore losers, so that he will think he actually 'won' and just stay quiet.

Aressar posted...

Once Putin retreats the Russian troops and claims victory with more mental gymnastics, the rest of us have to just remember to look really bitter like sore losers, so that he will think he actually 'won' and just stay quiet.

There's no chance in hell the world will pretend he has "won", least of all to ensure his delicate big strong man fee-fees don't get hurt.

UnholyMudcrab posted...

They've already reached the point of supply lines falling apart, really. Their vehicles are running out of fuel and their convoys are getting picked off.

Okay VERY tangential question - why is the Russian logistic chain so bad? The US (last I remember) could fight at least two fronts around the world, meaning their supply lines were sufficient to do that for more than a couple of days.

Ruvan22 posted...

Okay VERY tangential question - why is the Russian logistic chain so bad? The US (last I remember) could fight at least two fronts around the world, meaning their supply lines were sufficient to do that for more than a couple of days.

Its not even that it's bad - it's that it didn't even exist because this was Putin's last-minute call and literally nobody was prepared. By most accounts, they brought enough supplies for like 2 days of warfare.

what's the benefit for Hungary?

It's looking like Putin is opting for "cripple the country, then claim victory":
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877

In the last hour there have been multiple reports of explosions at an oil depot outside of Kyiv and a gas pipeline in Kharkiv

There's much commentary that Russia may now be targeting gas and oil infrastructure, after first going after Ukraine's military bases.

Ah yes, blowing up the oil and gas infrastructure is a brilliant plan for an army that is out of oil and gas.

What's next, blowing up all the bridges after they cross them?

DarkRoast posted...

Ah yes, blowing up the oil and gas infrastructure is a brilliant plan for an army that is out of oil and gas.

What's next, blowing up all the bridges after they cross them?

I mean, I wouldn't put it past him to just abandon any of his forces still past a certain point in the country, cause as much damage as possible and then just leave.

DarkRoast posted...

Ah yes, blowing up the oil and gas infrastructure is a brilliant plan for an army that is out of oil and gas.

What's next, blowing up all the bridges after they cross them?

I mean, if his goal is to cripple Ukraine sufficiently that Europe is going to spend more of their time on saving the country then going on the counteroffensive then it kind of makes sense.

Doubly so if he can severely limit where the rest of Europe is getting their oil and gas from such that him threatening to turn off the supply lines from Russia is enough of a negotiating tool to actually get some sort of compromise.

I also just read, but haven't seen verified yet, that Russia just passed a constitutional amendment to allow them to put nukes in Brlarus.

So I think we're definitely at that stage where he's trying to force some kind of leverage in a treaty because he knows he's beyond the point of winning.

VariousbCountries are sending weapo, Mississippi and shit right?

Give them some fighter jets too. Russia still does not have proper air superiority. Don't let them get it.

Is this going to make americans look bad. I like travelling without judgement.

s0nicfan posted...

It's looking like Putin is opting for "cripple the country, then claim victory":
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877

What a sore loser bitch.

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he carpet bombed as much of Ukraine as he could before ending this, just out of spite.

I'm surprised at how poorly The Russian military has handled this tbh.

The Northern offensive getting bogged down delaying the encirclement of Kiev, not getting a handle on the the Southern cities like Mariupol in the initial offensive, poor supply lines etc

And how do they not have complete Air superiority yet?

The West took out Iraq's Air Force in literally 2-3 hours.

I'm no military expert but it all looks so amateurish to me.

putin is a dick but he's also a bit of a geopolitical mastermind so here's to hoping we dont all die in nuclear war

alphagamble posted...

I'm surprised at how poorly The Russian military has handled this tbh.

The Northern offensive getting bogged down delaying the encirclement of Kiev, not getting a handle on the the Southern cities like Mariupol in the initial offensive, poor supply lines etc

And how do they not have complete Air superiority yet?

The West took out Iraq's Air Force in literally 2-3 hours.

I'm no military expert but it all looks so amateurish to me.

That's because it is. Apparently there was very little preparation or planning put into this, just the whim of Putin being unhinged. Ukraine giving them far more than they bargained for has put them off balance as well and is emboldening everyone else to ramp up support and condemnation of Russia as well.

Is it really going that badly for Russia?

VigorouslySwish posted...

he's also a bit of a geopolitical mastermind

What evidence do we have for this?

mustachedmystic posted...

Is it really going that badly for Russia?

According to the US and Britain it's not going well. You can also see how Russia's "allies" are backing off support to see how it's going as well. Though that doesn't mean they aren't still the stronger force, mostly it seems they didn't expect Ukraine to put up the fight they are and they are starting to get bogged down.

Even if Russia "wins" they are still looking at a costly insurgency. Putin at this point probably expected to be installing his puppet government and going home and that's not been the case at all. Really feels like he bought into his own hype about just how strong his military is and thought Ukraine would roll over.

mustachedmystic posted...

Is it really going that badly for Russia?

For the most part, yes. They've been exposed for having untrained, demoralized troops with barely any fuel and supplies, as well as laughably outdated hardware.

They obviously didnt plan on things taking this long, and theres no obvious way out. Even if Kyiv falls next week and Zelenskys corpse turns up with a conveniently self-inflicted head wound, it would probably inflame pro-resistance sentiment rather than dampen it. The separatist-controlled areas are relatively small, and Ukraines population is huge: it would be immensely taxing to occupy it, and no one would respect his puppet government headed by Yanukovych or whoever ruling from the ruins of Kyiv.
Even though Ukraine is still likely to lose this thing, the range of outcomes from Russias perspective has already darkened considerably.

ScazarMeltex posted...

Think back to WW1 and the battle of Jutland. It was the first large scale naval battle of the dreadnaught era, there was all sorts of conventional wisdom about how the battle would go, how effective the ships would be in their roles, but it turned out that almost all of that was false because all of that conventional wisdom was based on outdated concepts.

Can you recommend an example to read about that?

I don't see any scenario where Putin doesn't double down in some way. He's a madman and a brute and I think he's going to delve further into rage. Expect more troops to dive into Ukraine with grim results for all parties.

s0nicfan posted...

I also just read, but haven't seen verified yet, that Russia just passed a constitutional amendment to allow them to put nukes in Belarus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877

French President Emmanuel Macron has denounced Belarus's decision to authorise Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on its soil.