Current Events > Can you explain what ''correlation does not equal causation'' means

(+) Yeah! (+)

Layman's term it up for me please.

Just because two things are commonly found together does not mean that one causes the other.

Just because 2 things increase or decrease at the same time, does not mean 1 of them is causing the other to increase or decrease.

if the glove fit, that still dont mean he did it

shoe size increases with intelligence
the cause for both however is age

Just because you notice one event (A) happen prior to the other event (B) doesnt mean that A caused B.

A good example is the common cold. A lot of people falsely assume that cold temperatures cause the common cold because they see colds happen (B) in winter/colder months (A). Just because that correlation exists does not mean thats why B is happening. People are more prone to be indoors in more cramped spaces, where the common cold can more easily spread.

It's correlation is no proof of causation. Which means just because there are two variables moving together does not necessarily mean we know whether one variable causes the other to occur.

For example: I could plot IQ and shoe size and it would show as Shoe Size went up, as did IQ - but it would erroneous in the extreme to imply that the bigger your shoe size the higher your IQ.

As the number of pirates around the world went down, global warming increased. The two aren't at all related.

So two frogs are jumping from leaf to leaf on a pond together perfectly synchronized but they're not purposely doing it, it just happens to have look that way or we actually dunno the real cause?

gunplagirl posted...

As the number of pirates around the world went down, global warming increased. The two aren't at all related.

I used to work with a stats guy who had a coffee mug showing the correlation between pirates decreasing and global warning. It then said "Bring back the pirates to stop global warming." Lol

Veggeta_MAX posted...

So two frogs are jumping from leaf to leaf on a pond together perfectly synchronized but they're not purposely doing it, it just happens to have look that way or we actually dunno the real cause?

Which two actions are you correlating here?

Important to note that the inverse is also true, that causation doesn't imply a correlation.

Tyranthraxus posted...

Which two actions are you correlating here?

Them jumping but that was a bad example of tryna understand the saying.

Veggeta_MAX posted...

So two frogs are jumping from leaf to leaf on a pond together perfectly synchronized but they're not purposely doing it, it just happens to have look that way or we actually dunno the real cause?

Weird metaphor, though I think you get it. Just cause two things seem related doesn't mean one causes the other, basically.

Although, special note: Correlation does imply causation, because the correlation is there. The connection wouldn't be drawn if there was no pattern in the first place. The more technically correct thing to say would be "The implication from correlation may not actually be of substance", but that's not nearly as catchy.

I think I got it.

Ice cream and bikinis are both selling really good. If one sells good then so will the other, that's their correlation or something that they have in common. However, it's good to know that just because they sell well together doesn't mean they're the definite cause of each other's success. Right?

Veggeta_MAX posted...

Them jumping but that was a bad example of tryna understand the saying.

Imagine astrology.

There's a rule in astrology called a Saturn return which is a point in your life when Saturn revisits your astrological house that means bad shit / hardships are about to happen to you. Turns out this is more accurate than it is not. Most people experience the Saturn return in their early 20s. Lots of people around this time go through things like college graduation, first real jobs, relationship issues, etc which is a great deal of stress and difficulty.

But do you think Saturn moving around in the sky is causing it, or is it just kind of there at the same time by coincidence?

bsp77 posted...

I used to work with a stats guy who had a coffee mug showing the correlation between pirates decreasing and global warning. It then said "Bring back the pirates to stop global warming." Lol

It's a pretty comedic and thus well known example

https://i.imgur.com/rD9xs5f.gif

Veggeta_MAX posted...

I think I got it.

Ice cream and bikinis are both selling really good. If one sells good then so will the other, that's their correlation or something that they have in common. However, it's good to know that just because they sell well together doesn't mean they're the definite cause of each other's success. Right?

righto

Tyranthraxus posted...

Imagine astrology.

There's a rule in astrology called a Saturn return which is a point in your life when Saturn revisits your astrological house that means bad shit / hardships are about to happen to you. Turns out this is more accurate than it is not. Most people experience the Saturn return in their early 20s. Lots of people around this time go through things like college graduation, first real jobs, relationship issues, etc which is a great deal of stress and difficulty.

But do you think Saturn moving around in the sky is causing it, or is it just kind of there at the same time by coincidence?

Now there's a gap in my life, where Sailor Saturn doesn't have an attack reflection move called Saturn Return. Thanks.

Last time I explained this to someone my car broke down the next day. Not falling for that again.

Just cause me and your mom are in bed together doesnt mean its a fact we did anything.

But we did.

Tom Clark posted...

Last time I explained this to someone my car broke down the next day. Not falling for that again.

That's pretty good.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/1/6/7/AAOKgXAADMYv.jpg

Also this whole page

https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

This happens in sports all the time. I have a friend who said that the Vegas Golden Knights missed the NHL playoffs because they traded for Jack Eichel. In his mind, the Sabres sucked with Eichel, so Eichel must have made Vegas suck as well.

It's like saying the Bill lost four straight Super Bowls because Jim Kelly was the QB. It's not how it work