Board 8 > Discussing Mafia Mafia Topic 9: Status Quo

(+) Yeah! (+)

I didn't read Lopen's entire post but I saw "Bulletproof" and I was like WHAT HOW

There's no way we're both bulletproof

What the fuck

There's no way Sultan is telling the truth

What the fuck

Is...Lopen indy and sultan scum?

or the other way in some weird setup.

no way is lopen town bp though.

Ok, so at this point I think we would still kill Lopen because he has been counter claimed. Otherwise we are looking at a Sultan/Kirby suiciding into Lopen?

"Notoriety" my foot. Going for King when you already have invincibility is such an anti-Town play. Weren't you same the person who said that scum aren't going to target the King for obvious reasons? Isn't your job supposed to be to prevent a kill, not to keep your own ass safe?

If you're actually a Bulletproof, Lopen, then you are a dishonorable one.

... But also wtf I thought I had this game solved. I find Lopen very hard to believe, but then again, last time that happened, the cop died >.>
Ugh it's really looking like Sultan outed himself thinking he prevented the kill, and that's a reality that I don't want to believe in.

I guess it's possible that Han was actually town roleblocked as scum and is using this a springboard to look like town by bussing Lopen? But Han + Sultan just makes so much sense... And if Han were town and Sultan + Lopen was a bus, there's no way he wouldn't be suspicious of being setup by Sultan.

All in all, Han is for sure scum. Lopen's behavior is anti-Town for a Bulletproof, so I'm very suspicious of him. And Sultan is... well, Sultan. If Lopen suddenly didn't introduce so much doubt into my mind due to his claim, I'd be 100% convinced that Sultan is the scum.

Frankly, I don't see this as a situation where more than one of them is town. I'm willing to bet there's at least two scum in that group of three

Well in any case, my vote for King is pretty clear, and I doubt I'll budge on this. I have no reason to believe this dude isn't Town.

##King: changmas

Well I believe Kirby being The BP over Lopen... im sad beacuse i guess I didnt Stop the kill but I may have outted lopen anyways and if you dont see that Lopen is scum with the same claim as you Kirby idk why youd think their would be any possibility that their would be 2 BP.

But why would scum attempt to kill you exactly?

Alternatively and very unlikely Lopen and Kirby are Scum together and when they saw Lopens didn't work they would try again with Kirby but that is dumb lol.

Just scratch that last thought that is just too ridiculous

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Ok, so at this point I think we would still kill Lopen because he has been counter claimed. Otherwise we are looking at a Sultan/Kirby suiciding into Lopen?

Actually, I suppose Sultan wouldn't have to be scum with Kirby here. But Kirby suiciding into Lopen when Lopen is pretty much dead to rights doesn't make any sense.

So with all that out now

I'm assuming Han was fucking around trying to nail Lopen by supporting Sultan.

I'm always believing Kirby 100% of the time

I have to think Sultan was being straight, thinking he nailed lopen.. but in this scenario lopen would know that he didn't send a kill if Kirby took a shot

Lopen... probably is 3rd party? Unless scum bought bp against Chang to be safe and Lopen claimed it thinking it was safe knowing Chang didn't shoot

Well i don't know what's going on anymore but there's one thing I can agree with:

##King: Changmas

the rest can be sorted out afterwards.

Well I realize this probably makes me look even worse but I was lying.

I'm just a vanilla who legitimately thought Sultan was suiciding into him and it was a play in case Chang acted to make Sultan not look super suspicious, and had that reaffirmed by thinking Bus + RB + Bodyguard seems like too much protection. No need to keep the charade now that we have another explanation for the non kill.

Honestly thought the kill delay theory was the correct one once BG claimed but I knew that wasn't gonna sell. So yeah. Did what I had to. Don't regret it.

Lynch all lopens?

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

But why would scum attempt to kill you exactly?

An excellent question. My theory is that the scum is trying to be as unpredictable as possible and not have the kills traced back to them.

We still have no clue why Ulti died (aside from my theory that they were trying to frame chang due to Ulti threatening to kill him), and Sheep was also completely random. Thus, I theorized that the scum are going for people who are 1) difficult to setup a mislynch on and 2) can't have the nightkill traced back to them.

In other words, the targets have been people who have relatively not gotten much heat on them. Hell, Lopen probably tried to test the waters on this by telling people to put pressure on me, and when nobody seemed to budge on that, I guess they decided I would be next instead of Scare. Heck, even Red was like, "Maybe we've given you too much of a pass." Yet no one gave even so much a care... Sbell even said I was off the table, which was flattering and made me certain I was near the top of the scum hitlist.

Though I'll be honest, I thought 100% sure that changmas would be dead tonight and would take you with him, assuming no roleblock because it wouldn't be worth the effort to protect a scummate since it would just delay the inevitable. Then again, roleblocking chang to setup a mislynch on you might not have been out of the realm of possibility, but at that point, why bother when they could just let chang shoot you (if you were innocent townie). I sure as hell would've taken that bait if I didn't get confirmation that I was the actual target! And chang confirmed not having extra bullets, so that definitely scum targeted me, even if it wasn't Lopen specifically.

The only reason I entertained the possibility of chang not being killed is the fact that Sbell is still alive despite being cleared by Tidus. Thus, I saw Scare and I as the second likeliest candidates, and I hoped their attention would be on me instead of Scare, so I made my town/scum rank list as a "final message" to make it seem as if I knew I was gonna die and decided to accept my fate.
... And if I was right, well, I'd certainly provoke scum. Lopen and Red certainly took the bait.

I have to admit my "grand plan" was... mostly just sheer luck, really. But I knew from the start that I would avoid trying to be King unless the other candidates just... really sucked. I am very glad that I was able to rally the vote for Scare as King on D2, because I really did not want to be King and have my Bulletproof abilities squandered.

... Though speaking of King, my whole bus driver = doctor theory still kinda works out, huh? It just crossed my mind that Crescent could have swapped me with somebody and that would block the shot. I guess that relies on Crescent knowing and believing that I was Bulletproof, though.

Lopen posted...

Well I realize this probably makes me look even worse but I was lying.

I'm just a vanilla who legitimately thought Sultan was suiciding into him and it was a play in case Chang acted to make Sultan not look super suspicious, and had that reaffirmed by thinking Bus + RB + Bodyguard seems like too much protection. No need to keep the charade now that we have another explanation for the non kill.

Honestly thought the kill delay theory was the correct one once BG claimed but I knew that wasn't gonna sell. So yeah. Did what I had to. Don't regret it.

Oh okay I believe you are town now

... Yeah right. I believe that you're lying, but not because you're town. You wanted an explanation for the no-kill, but what you really wanted was for doc to out themselves, huh?

That explains why you scum were going for unconventional targets. You were expected doc to be on the obvious ones, right?

Man, I was just straight-up busy today and had a lot of students in office hours (since their project deadline was tonight), but it was sure as hell convenient that I posted so late. If I had actually been here on time, I would've instantly revealed my role just from the sheer excitement of knowing my powers were not in vain. Probably would've stopped IGCD from outing themselves, but now we got Lopen admitting to fake-claiming in a bid to discover who the protection role is.
... And uh, whatever Sultan is doing. I was so sure that he was lying until Lopen revealed his fake-claim, but now I'm not so sure. I don't see a Lopen + Sultan bus being realistic when it relies on Han taking Sultan at his word for being a town roleblocker instead of questioning the hell out of it.

I still stand by lynching Han today btw. Man claimed roleblocked and is deliberately waiting for everyone else to claim before putting out his own fake-claim. He's strategizing and planning out the nightkills three steps ahead with all this information he suddenly got. I say we chop off the head of this ragtag scum group before they get any crazy ideas and thwart our unstoppable townie momentum!

Well ill be honest I thought I caused the no kill beacuse I assumed that since Bus driver was dead I was the only protection left, bg would have shown up dead.

I wouldnt have guessed A bulletproof being a possibility.

My bad. But I think it still provided alot of information.

Kirby321 posted...

but now we got Lopen admitting to fake-claiming in a bid to discover who the protection role is.

Do you really think I thought doc was still in the setup with Bodyguard + Bus. I only claimed after IGCD claimed BG

Yea, I definitely think we need a full claim from Han. I really don't like his play surrounding this so far.

I know I'm branded as the liar but I concur

Honest!

Lopen posted...

Do you really think I thought doc was still in the setup with Bodyguard + Bus. I only claimed after IGCD claimed BG

Yes, because how else would you have explained the no-kill? As scum, you know that you targeted me, yet I'm still alive. Neither Sultan nor IGCD claimed roles that can outright prevent a kill, so where is this protection role that stopped the kill? And so you took it upon yourself to claim Bulletproof without being prompted, as a bait to bring forth this stubborn protection role who saved me.

Lo and behold, I actually saved myself. Or rather, you guys saved the town. I couldn't have stopped the kill without y'all's help, after all, so thanks for aiming the shot at me.

This just sounds like a backpedal, Lopen. I don't believe your justification for claiming Bulletproof as a play against Chang when you could've just claimed vanilla from the get-go and nothing would've changed. Bulletproof does nothing to support any kind of argument against Chang and just seems like a claim for town power just to be more believable.

I'm still catching up, but Kirby, I think your claim proves Sultan as Town? Have to think about it, but it seems like you got your britches up a little too quick.

I'm not claiming any argument against Chang.

Reread the day. You can see where my thought process is. If I'm scum I know you're the target so claiming before you even say anything is stupid. Bulletproof is a perfectly reasonable explanation(moreso than BG + Bus + Doc) and I would obviously be countered if you were that. I didn't do the fake claim until BG had revealed.

As town, I see all the same data minus you being the target so I have to figure the same thing minus thinking BP is likely in the game. So I think scum having a kill delay is more likely but people aren't buying that, so I bs something because I know me being roleblocked wasn't why there was no kill.

Yeah, okay.

Kirby, congrats. You got shot. I am so very proud of you. We'll be telling this as the greatest Town play for years to come.

That out of the way, you are way too high on yourself and not actually thinking things through right now.

If you got shot last night, then that means that Scum shot you. If Scum knows they shot you, then why do they fake a RB (as you are suggesting on themselves?)???

There is no logical process there.

More to the point, if we look at roles, we have a slew of skill-based roles (which, not to meta Chris, but that's the kind of stuff Chris likes). Cop is the only one that is not. BP is tough to fit in... but it actually makes a lot of sense when thinking about it.

If Town protection consists of RB and Bus Drive, which are both very powerful but can hit Town, and Bodyguard which can protect specific targets once but not without losing a Town still, then it's pretty well-balanced. But BG is Town's one-shot keep someone alive skill. If BP stacks that, then you have the chance of somebody taking three shots to kill if BG protects them, which seems antithetical to cohesive set-up.

Kirby, I think you just outed yourself as the Independent.

Lopen maybe got stuck in a caught for the wrong reasons trap by Sultan.
HanOfTheNekos posted...

Kirby, I think you just outed yourself as the Independent.

Possibly.

We aren't lynching Kirby

Fastbreak posted...

We aren't lynching Kirby

Yeah no chance in hell right now. I'm fully prepared to play this like indy doesn't exist.

Leafeon13N posted...

Lopen maybe got stuck in a caught for the wrong reasons trap by Sultan.

Yeah, that'd be right. Unless Kirby is lying, if Scum shot him, then they would know that Sultan didn't block a kill (unless Scum had two shots and Lopen fired one).

But if that's the case, why so frantic from Lopen?

I wonder if scum is the boring answer of Han /mzero.

##Unvote: Sultan


Still believe he's Town but Kirby's claim would prove Sultan didn't block a shot. Gonna think this over tomorrow.

Kirby probably is indie that would actually fit.

Just don't make him King and he's probably pro town. I mean I don't know his victory condition but I would imagine King election matters. That's why I used it in my BG fakeclaim. Just logical part of the victory condition.

I still think RB + BG + Bus + King seems like too much protection. RB + King + Bus seemed like too little but BG + King + Bus seems better to me.

I would be OK with Sultan or Red or Han lynch today, but would prefer Sultan. I feel like Red should be OK with Sultan too because he was arguing RB + King + Bus was a balanced protection setup.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Yeah, okay.

Kirby, congrats. You got shot. I am so very proud of you. We'll be telling this as the greatest Town play for years to come.

That out of the way, you are way too high on yourself and not actually thinking things through right now.

If you got shot last night, then that means that Scum shot you. If Scum knows they shot you, then why do they fake a RB (as you are suggesting on themselves?)???

There is no logical process there.

More to the point, if we look at roles, we have a slew of skill-based roles (which, not to meta Chris, but that's the kind of stuff Chris likes). Cop is the only one that is not. BP is tough to fit in... but it actually makes a lot of sense when thinking about it.

If Town protection consists of RB and Bus Drive, which are both very powerful but can hit Town, and Bodyguard which can protect specific targets once but not without losing a Town still, then it's pretty well-balanced. But BG is Town's one-shot keep someone alive skill. If BP stacks that, then you have the chance of somebody taking three shots to kill if BG protects them, which seems antithetical to cohesive set-up.

Kirby, I think you just outed yourself as the Independent.

Oh, so you agree that Sultan faked his roleblock? Then why were you so confident in his township?

I will be fair, I jumped the gun on Sultan because I saw a theory that completely contradicted my existence and the information I was given overnight. Or so I thought. It wasn't until Lopen claimed Bulletproof that I realized Sultan might be telling the truth but just believed he stopped the kill and outed himself. I will admit that I was so excited about successfully blocking the kill that I didn't think Sultan's claim out completely through, and you instantly believing Sultan certainly did not help considering that you and Lopen were my #1 suspects by the end of D2.

Speaking of which, why did you not question Sultan at all and instantly believe he was town Roleblocker and not scum Roleblocker? This was before Bulletproof was even a consideration, so your analysis doesn't explain your stance on that.

Speaking of your analysis, it makes no sense and is pure meta-ing. We don't know what kind of counter-measures the Mafia has against a Town setup like this with Roleblocker (if Sultan is even truthin'), Bus Driver, Bodyguard, and Bulletproof. Who are you to say that it's not balanced? And even then, you could use the same argument against Lopen who also claimed Bulletproof (even if his was actually fake). Clearly, the setup isn't as absurd as you claim it would be, and even then, it relies on Sultan actually being a town Roleblocker, which you don't even think is true. Heck, I'm very split on whether Sultan is town or not since his role seems ridiculous, but his claim was very much in-character.

In any case, you are completely trying to take the heat off of yourself by nonsensically pinning me as the Independent, which isn't even true.

Give us a good reason why we shouldn't lynch you today, Han, and explain yourself. What is your role, and why did you instantly believe Sultan to be town?

Kirby what did you mean by your plan worked? Did you do something to entice scum to shoot you?

MZero posted...

Kirby what did you mean by your plan worked? Did you do something to entice scum to shoot you?

Very interesting first post of the game.

i was actually wondering about that too tbh

Hmm

Plum + Lopen as the core might check out that Han, Red, and I were left alone n1 over Ulti

N2 killing Sheep is a good move

N3 can't kill Sbell. Kirby is a good kill. Leaves Han on the table for rule 1 suspicions and no one but me seems to lean too strongly on him being town

changmas posted...

i was actually wondering about that too tbh

Lopen + Plum team may make me a little less sure on you tbh

Not to where I would want to lynch you today, but I think I would need to reevaluate. You buried Plum, but didn't follow through on a second shot, which could have been a very hard bus with everyone else already suspecting him.

MZero posted...

Kirby what did you mean by your plan worked? Did you do something to entice scum to shoot you?

Not particularly. I'm just being over-dramatic and felt awesome that I called the scum nightkill before the night even started lol
(Which I mean technically isn't true since I was very convinced changmas was going to die, but I knew that if the Mafia continued the pattern of not going for the obvious kill, Scare or I were going to be next. Tbh, they could've sniped Scare, but I had a feeling I'd be the more appealing kill since no one had any remote interest in considering me as scum besides Lopen)
Frankly, I was thinking about taunting Lopen and Red to "pressure" me or by calling the scum team cowards and challenging them to shoot me, but I figured those might've been overkill and calling way too much attention to myself when it seemed clear that the Mafia wanted to kill a relatively overlooked townie.

Fastbreak posted...

Not to where I would want to lynch you today, but I think I would need to reevaluate. You buried Plum, but didn't follow through on a second shot, which could have been a very hard bus with everyone else already suspecting him.

Honestly, I can believe changmas for bluffing just to bait out a roleblock. It's a risky play since if Plum flipped town, that could've backfired massively, so I can see that not being a pro-town play, but maybe I just respect the moxie. Also, changmas could've stayed completely silent and let Plum possibly have a chance to escape lynch. No reason to bus a scum mate so hard that you have to fake claim a fake power for your fake claim and then explain that you were bluffing.

If change is town we technically haven't seen a 2nd scum kill which I have to assume is available

Maybe last night was the night they grabbed it and they shot Kirby with one and Lopen sent the other

I dont think i ever bought that there is a second shot, tbh. Though i typically dont bring this stuff up.

I do not have your restraint red. All my conspiracy theories are valid until they aren't

Leafeon13N posted...

I dont think i ever bought that there is a second shot, tbh. Though i typically dont bring this stuff up.

... He says when his first posts today were all about what kind of actions the scum had and when they could have used them.

Though honestly, if Sultan is telling the truth, a second shot might not be out of the realm of possibility. Otherwise, if Sultan is scum, then I don't think a second shot seems likely. Eh, is there a point in discussing this?

I think he meant with Chang

Oh. That... makes a lot of sense.

I have no problems making scum guestimations.

I keep town secrets close.

Kirby321 posted...

Not particularly. I'm just being over-dramatic and felt awesome that I called the scum nightkill before the night even started lol
(Which I mean technically isn't true since I was very convinced changmas was going to die, but I knew that if the Mafia continued the pattern of not going for the obvious kill, Scare or I were going to be next. Tbh, they could've sniped Scare, but I had a feeling I'd be the more appealing kill since no one had any remote interest in considering me as scum besides Lopen)
Frankly, I was thinking about taunting Lopen and Red to "pressure" me or by calling the scum team cowards and challenging them to shoot me, but I figured those might've been overkill and calling way too much attention to myself when it seemed clear that the Mafia wanted to kill a relatively overlooked townie.

what a buzzkill!

For all i know I'm wrong and i dont see the harm keeping scums wheels spinning on chang atm though.

Leafeon13N posted...

I have no problems making scum guestimations.

I keep town secrets close.

Okay yeah I can agree with that. I just misunderstood you were talking about chang.

... Which in hindsight I probably did not help chang's case when I pointed out his "contradiction" regarding multiple shots. Oops.

I think safeplay is probably king chang anyway.

fwiw I thought chang was Jack or something because his post was specifically "I'm not one-shot vig" rather than just saying one-shot or I have more shots. That's why I said not to push him on it yesterday

Leafeon13N posted...

I think safeplay is probably king chang anyway.

If you believe Sultan is RB, we probably want to king him so scum can't take him out