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Current Events > How many times would you push a button that makes you win $1 with 99.9% probab

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Dark_Koopatrol
09/19/22 6:15:58 PM
#1:


ility but makes you lose $10,000 with 0.01% probability?






How many times would you push a button that makes you win $1 with 99.9% probability but makes you lose $10,000 with 0.01% probability?

The expected value is .999*1+.001*(-10000), = -9. You expect to lose $9 every time you push the button. This could be a fun casino game.
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FigureOfSpeech
09/19/22 6:17:39 PM
#2:


probably either 69 times or 420 times.

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Hoodroar
09/19/22 6:18:20 PM
#3:


Never.

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DrizztLink
09/19/22 6:18:53 PM
#4:


None.

That payoff isn't worth pressing the button in general.

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kingdrake2
09/19/22 6:19:21 PM
#5:


DrizztLink posted...
That payoff isn't worth pressing the button on general.

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BakiHanma462
09/19/22 6:20:19 PM
#6:


Until I win, those are good odds.
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MedeaLysistrata
09/19/22 6:20:24 PM
#7:


That is probably my favorite game

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TaylorHeinicke
09/19/22 6:20:52 PM
#8:


Wouldn't the per-press rate need to be at least $10 for it to mathematically make sense?

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VirtuousWrath
09/19/22 6:21:51 PM
#9:


If you look at the probability like (0.999)^n, you only have like 692 trials before your probability of losing $10k is at 50%.

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Pitlord_Special
09/19/22 6:27:23 PM
#10:


like 6 times and then buy a Taco Bell cravings box with it

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NoxObscuras
09/19/22 6:29:44 PM
#11:


That's a terrible deal. In the long run, you're going to lose more than you gain with that button. And if your luck is terrible you could end up owing 10 grand after 1 try lol.

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AceAttorneyist
09/19/22 6:31:53 PM
#12:


I voted before I saw the other stipulation lol. Idk why anyone would ever press the button at all.

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haloiscoolisbak
09/19/22 6:33:56 PM
#13:


Well, 99.9% chance per press for free money is kinda tempting

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Stormvale12
09/19/22 6:37:13 PM
#14:


I would push it once or twice for the novelty, but you can only be unlucky once in 10,000 attempts just to break even.
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ChocoboMogALT
09/19/22 6:41:29 PM
#15:


Tbh, I think the right play is to pick a number, press it until you hit that number, then quit. Doesn't matter if you're $1,000,000 in the hole given infinite time.

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