Board 8 > Paper Mario Mafia Topic 4 - I have a score to settle with those Koopa Bros.!

(+) Yeah! (+)

Peace___Frog posted...

Who are your others? And what gave you the town read on Cody?

Well Lea was the first victim. Cody is because he asked questions that he could have asked on the scum board. And now with the poison he is ultra mega confirmed in my eyes.

Lets say the most confidence in

Dumey
Peaf
Ulti

And I have been debating whether Sultan is town or scum, but after the Sbell flip -

Obellisk posted...

I can say though that i've played in enough mafia games with Sultan to get a really good read on him. Ulti would call it a soul read. I'll admit I was 100% fooled by his first scum game but there are little nuances about him that you just know speak to town.

The deliberate admittance of reading the opening post and the rules etc, can come across as faked, it felt like a reason to post to me so i was automatically on guard with Sultan. But when you couple that with the ctes interaction its revealed that oh, its just Sultan.

His questioning of the breadcrumbs by Isquen just to be questioned about his questioning in a negative light and his confidence starting to falter, saying its probably nothing, but we all know he thinks its something he just doesn't want that negative attention because he's trying to figure things out. His posts just flow like town.

If he is scum this game I will bend the knee and pledge my undying allegiance to the Sultan.

Plum, you are Loud, you are Wrong... You are town?

Sbell was reallllllly insistent on town Sultan. This was later on, but he started off saying it immediately by page 3. I doubt he puts this much confidence into staking his bets on a scum buddy Sultan, when Sultan is someone I feel....could slip at a moments notice?

No offense. Though every time I read Sultan I feel like i am making an offense.

EDumey posted...

Didn't you have a town read on Ben specifically because of his town read on Cody at the start of the game? >_>

That post was actually that Sultan and Cody cant be scum together. As of today, both are town!

Sbell did exactly what i thought he was doing which is funny.

PunishedBen posted...

Lets say the most confidence in

Dumey
Peaf
Ulti

Quite the interesting list!

Dumey, I'll be honest, i didn't understand a single point of the complaints against isq. I'm not going to say i thought he was obvtown, but i had a pretty strong lean that i think i expressed. I even said it was less strong than me knowing myself, but still. What I'm trying to get at is that this isn't an i told you so. It's an, i was too confused and unobservant to follow your thread. And I'm sorry if that's frustrating.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Sbell did exactly what i thought he was doing which is funny.

Oh yeah i remember talking with you about that!
Very funny.

Peace___Frog posted...

So you seriously think that the host not only lied to isq, but also to everyone else after isq flipped?

Upgradeable roles arent banned here. Most recent was a fire emblem game with a hidden mechanic where if I recruited Masked marth she turned into Lucina and gained abilities. No one was told about this until it happened.

I had no idea. That is wild. Foot, mouth.

Peace___Frog posted...

Quite the interesting list!

Dumey, I'll be honest, i didn't understand a single point of the complaints against isq. I'm not going to say i thought he was obvtown, but i had a pretty strong lean that i think i expressed. I even said it was less strong than me knowing myself, but still. What I'm trying to get at is that this isn't an i told you so. It's an, i was too confused and unobservant to follow your thread. And I'm sorry if that's frustrating.

I think largely town was apathetic because no one had good scum reads. And scum was willing to let me lead a mislynch.

So the question is who was willing to let me pressure for free as scum? Sultan was on Isquen before me for his own reasons. Lea joined because of Han and a desire to pressure something. Han claims to have joined just to pressure, but admittedly didn't think he was scum. But Han also caused the tie to be between you and Isquen. ASSUMING you are town, this is hard to analyze, because a scum Han would have no need to make a tie breaker between two town. I am kind of working through this as I type, but that's what I'm trying to look at.

I should look at who was around during that period, but stayed hands-off of the whole thing.

If I stay with the thought one if Han or Lea was scum.. since Lea was town.. hmm

Also Sbell was very animated over Han but Sbell trying to make a link between him Han on purpose is something I could see him doing.

What was Sbell's thoughts on Ben?

EDumey posted...

But Han also caused the tie to be between you and Isquen. ASSUMING you are town, this is hard to analyze, because a scum Han would have no need to make a tie breaker between two town. I am kind of working through this as I type, but that's what I'm trying to look at.

I should look at who was around during that period, but stayed hands-off of the whole thing.

Yeah. I've gone back and forth on the Han thing. But ultimately i think he is town, because the gambit for him in saving me if he is scum is pretty ballsy. Scum Han could have just let things happen and he'd have looked none the worse.

From my overnight notes:

Would scum be likely to want to shake things up at the end of the day in an attempt to get a sneak attack in at a power role? I don't think so, because the low level of votes could risk scum being hit as well. I'm inclined to think that most people who moved their votes on people that weren't me or isq at day- end were town.

I guess it really depends on timing, and i was recovering from an exhausting week of work so things kind of blend together for me. I'm really referring to the 30 minutes leading up to the lynch. I don't really know where isq claimed, but Lea caught it and i think it was before me? And i think i claimed with around a half hour left. So votes after that time are definitely the most curious.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Ben if youre cop and wasted a scan to prove me innocent I swear I will twist your nipple. Im an easy town read man.

And of course Im going to read day one, my goodness people. I have respect for mafia the game. Its called reaction fishing.

I'm not a cop and i didnt scan you. Just to make it clear

Isquen never claimed. He said he was not an active power role. So we could assume Vanilla or something passive like Bulletproof, but that's about it.

EDumey posted...

Isquen never claimed. He said he was not an active power role. So we could assume Vanilla or something passive like Bulletproof, but that's about it.

He claimed Vanilla..

Day 1 votals:
Isquen [4] (Sultan), EDumey, (Han), (Lea), Kirby, Lea, Han
Peaf [3] - (Han), Ben, (Han), (Plum), Death, red
Lea [2] (Kirby), Sbell, JC
Plum [2] Peaf, (Han), Sultan
Han [1] - Isquen, (JC), (Sultan)
Sultan [1] - (Plum), Hb, (Isquen)
Dumey [0] - (Peaf), (Lea)
Ben [0] - (Peaf), (Lea), (Death)
Red [0] (JC)
Kirby [0] - (Han), (Lea), (Sultan), (Peaf)
Hb [0] - (Sultan)
Sbell [0] - (Plum)

Interesting that jc was on Lea with sbell, in retrospect.

I know i said that votes for other players very late in the day are likely town, but the vote on plum by Sultan is funny no matter how you look at it.

Could you please elaborate on that, Sultan? You voted for Plum and said "sure". What was that in response to?

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

He claimed Vanilla..

He quite literally did not. We asked him to. He declined. Then he quit the game because he was being "lectured" and did not return for the rest of the day. I just ctrl + f'd to make sure he didn't come back after I left for the night, and that still is true.

Peace___Frog posted...

Day 1 votals:
Isquen [4] (Sultan), EDumey, (Han), (Lea), Kirby, Lea, Han
Peaf [3] - (Han), Ben, (Han), (Plum), Death, red
Lea [2] (Kirby), Sbell, JC
Plum [2] Peaf, (Han), Sultan
Han [1] - Isquen, (JC), (Sultan)
Sultan [1] - (Plum), Hb, (Isquen)
Dumey [0] - (Peaf), (Lea)
Ben [0] - (Peaf), (Lea), (Death)
Red [0] (JC)
Kirby [0] - (Han), (Lea), (Sultan), (Peaf)
Hb [0] - (Sultan)
Sbell [0] - (Plum)

Interesting that jc was on Lea with sbell, in retrospect.

I know i said that votes for other players very late in the day are likely town, but the vote on plum by Sultan is funny no matter how you look at it.

Could you please elaborate on that, Sultan? You voted for Plum and said "sure". What was that in response to?

Han proposed plum as a different option didn't think Lea or Isquen was a great option. I also didn't want to vote you. I wanted to go Han or HB and well neither were happening so I thought sure why not plum.

End of day 1st I always hate tbh

I see. And it looks funny in votals just because it was right at the same time that han deftly switched to save me.

Hb, jc, and death certainly look bad to me. Ulti and Cody get the pass, and Cody is pretty much host-confirmed town now, unless scum poisoned their own member.
Now that would be fucking ballsy.

Question for ben and Cody - if you truly think isq was supposed to "save" Cody from this poison, how could that have happened? Do you think there's a third role that would have to target isq to give him powers to use on night 2? That would require the right person to target the right person on night 1, for isq to have an action on n2. The chances of that happening are 17x16. It would be very silly for mzero to balance around that, no?

Looked over the period of time from 2.435 when Han voted Isquen to join in pressuring him, all the way to shortly after Isquen quit the topic in 3.116.
I have notes of the specific posts, but it's largely just a retelling of the events, so I won't needlessly wall-post more than I already am with them.

I was specifically looking for who was around but not participating for or against.
Ulti was present for the votes on Isquen, but seems to have been gone by the time Isquen returns to answer questions.
Han, Dumey, Death, and Sultan were present and actively responding to Isquen the whole time.
Lea, HB, and Red were there throughout but just watching or commenting elsewhere.
Kirby appeared briefly to make their announcement of not being available.
Plum and Peaf join partway through. Plum does not interact with the Isquen stuff at all, and instead focuses on Kirby. Peaf does post about Isquen, but not really involved.
SBell shows up immediately after Isquen quits the thread to ask for a catch-up post about recent events.
JC shows up a bit later to comment about how Isquen was so clearly low hanging fruit.

The ones that stand out to me are Red, who made a comment when Isquen soft-claimed early on, but quieted down right when Isquen started actually answering questions and did not contribute to that.
Plum who once asked what the deal was with Isquen but then ignored everything else.
HB who was I guess characteristically in the background even though he showed he was present.
Then SBell and JC who only posted shortly after the fact.

I don't think there is anything super conclusive in this, but I said I'd review it and I'm posting my results. I'd recommend the people that are interested in JC as a direction to read post 3.150 and see if you think his reaction to the Isquen pressure seems weird or not. (He also posted negative read on Lea and positive read on SBell in this post, for what it's worth.)

Death ISO will probably come next, but gonna take a small break.

Peace___Frog posted...

Question for ben and Cody - if you truly think isq was supposed to "save" Cody from this poison, how could that have happened? Do you think there's a third role that would have to target isq to give him powers to use on night 2? That would require the right person to target the right person on night 1, for isq to have an action on n2. The chances of that happening are 17x16. It would be very silly for mzero to balance around that, no?

I am still wondering about the balance myself. But lets just say, Cody's post immediately made me think it would be cool if there is a Mario role that has to visit (collect) the Star Spirits to activate them or acquire their powers. My own flavor supports this theory and makes mention of this quest.

Peace___Frog posted...

Question for ben and Cody - if you truly think isq was supposed to "save" Cody from this poison, how could that have happened? Do you think there's a third role that would have to target isq to give him powers to use on night 2? That would require the right person to target the right person on night 1, for isq to have an action on n2. The chances of that happening are 17x16. It would be very silly for mzero to balance around that, no?

My theory would be that each day, a new star's power would be unlocked, in the same order they are in the game. So Eldstar is the first one Mario saves, and then Eldstar's role is expanded with their unsealed powers. Tomorrow would unlock Mamar's powers, if they are a role and alive.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Was Justin active at the end of day one? At a glance his vote is by far the worst one but if he was afk then I can maybe allow it.

Im just doing a skim because Im at a games night but this post is ??? because Ulti is saying both:

a) My vote is bad
b) He clearly hasnt read the end of day

Shouldnt be able to say A without having done B

Hi JC

I want you to go back and read every post I've made today (you can focus only on the you parts in the long one) and tell me it doesn't come from a Town perspective.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Hi JC

I want you to go back and read every post I've made today (you can focus only on the you parts in the long one) and tell me it doesn't come from a Town perspective.

You daring me probably does more than what Ill read tbh.

Will do when I get the chance though.

With all this talk of Star Spirits unlocking their powers, you'd think someone would have named the obvious conditions: lynching the appropriate scum role. For example... killing the Koopa Bros. would unseal Eldstar's powers.

Not that I find much stock in role metaing the setup at this point in time.

Also... Cody, are you informed of when you are going to die from your burn? Like... do you die at the end of the current day, or the end of the following night? I find it weird that some people assumed the latter automatically...

I hope you all like walls of text that you can ignore! As much as I'd like to make an excuse to not post the full notes, I'm just going to do it. If you want to skip the numbered play by play, by all means, but please read the separated section at the bottom just for my thoughts on each section.

TOPIC 1
Plum starts the day with a joke about Sbell being scum because he hasn't called Plum scum yet.
1.048 Death After the last game I feel I have a lock on scumbell... so if he is scum, he will slip up sooner or later! Unless he changes his entire playstyle on me of course.
1.055 I assume everyone is truthful when they say they are sick.
Han asks how shitposty Peaf usually is.
1.061 Wouln't you know that, han?
Han responds that he doesn't like Death butting in on his question.
1.114 Thats the answer I was hoping to get. Inattentive Han is more likely to be scum Han.
I saw you look away on purpose back in the last game after all
1.125 Sbell sounds quite presumptive currently.
1.148 Sbell, did Han deliberately attack you in the last game? Or did that just happen more organically?
1.154 In response to Kirby's catch-up post, Oh. I will apologize for calling you verbose, Kirby.
Because I liked that post more than the one you made now so...
1.173 I think Sbell was more combative than Han, [] I also dont know if scumHan would continue his sbell crusades if Sbell is town here. I'd think Sbell would point that out rather quick (and he did)
1.198 In response to Peaf asking about Death and Sbell just being on a team together Yes and? (and Sbell was already dead and didnt post as much anymore when I got recruited)

The above directly seems very at odds with Death's first post about being able to recognize scumbell. If I'm being charitable, then Death is saying his experience being on the scum team didn't mean as much as his time being Town and scanning Sbell. Still noteworthy as it's defensive in context.

1.221 Death says Sultan being demanding about flavor is not out of character. Kirby wasn't seriously trying to distance himself with the nofan-comment. Though I am only saying that because I find it weird that Han didnt see that as a joke himself. Then asks me for clarification on my opening argument against Peaf.
1.223 Though I should clarify, I dont think its wrong for Han to suspect Kirby for the other parts of his post.
1.226 Isquen singling out Sultans vote on Kirby specifically is something that needs explanation yes.
1.229 Kirby (I dont know if you are still here)
Not having reads is not a problem.
Loudly declaring that you have no reads with too many words is.
1.237 Death says he understands my Peaf case, and hopes I will get back on the Sbell/Han thing as I said I would.
1.238 Death agrees with Sbell about Sultan's vote looking the worst on Kirby.
This is after Peaf's vote, for context.
1.253 Death asks Sbell for his opinion on Han being okay with him after their spat.
1.286 Death asks Peaf to directly answer what he thinks of Ben and Ben's Cody/Sultan note at the start of the game.
1.320 Death clarifies to Sultan once HB starts going after him, While I dont like HBs own answer to this as much, his attack on you before that I felt had some fair reasoning for it.
Hopping on a lynch with your own reason often is just something extra scum adds to not look bad when they join a train, when town just does it because they can naturally agree.
The fact that your 'own reason' was a bad one should also not be so easily discarded here.
1.332 Kirby beind phased about that particular interaction is a reaction town could have as well.
1.343 I think EDumey's argument on you is perfectly readable... now at least.
1.377 Actually I think there was a lot of chatter from people trying to guess why Isquen singled out Sultans vote on Kirby, which to me feels like something HB hopped on.
1.390 Wait why is Plum still on Sultan?
1.400 Tells HB there's an obvious answer for Sultan's vote on Kirby.
1.413 Look I get the vibe his post gives off, but there is no proof that he lied.
I do hate that this all has to be said while Sultan himself is not here, but I also think its self evident.
Some more posts back and forth playing Voice of Reason with HB about Sultan.
1.435 I am not saying Sultan cant be scum or that your suspicion is illogical. I am just saying I dont think this will lead anywhere as it is now. And I cant relate to HB's intense reaction.
1.454 Death implies HB is being overzealous as an over-correction for his play in last game.

END OF TOPIC 1
I think Death is playing Voice of Reason like his normal playstyle here and just commenting on most everything going on. He does come off as very chummy with Sbell despite starting the game claiming he would catch scum Sbell quickly. The only other thing of note here is that when Sultan's vote on Kirby happened, Death was one of the people saying Sultan looked weird for it, but joined in on defending Sultan from HB's poor logic. Maybe this is just Voice of Reason taking priority here, but if anyone were to be suspicious of defending Sultan for no reason, Death's original thinking that Sultan looked weird and not taking that back at any point makes him the one to look at there.

TOPIC 2
Death continues talking to HB about how aggro he is in pursuing Sultan.
2.011 Peaf you dont need to answer for HB either
2.014 Plum says this isn't town Sultan.
Death asks for details from Plum.
More posts between HB and Death about people answering for other people.
2.038 Kirby's desire to diffuse confusion is one I also feel strongly. One point for him.
Kirby calls Lea lazy, which Lea responds Eh
2.049 Lea please dont disappoint me
2.063 Death hopes Cody won't be overwhelmed.
2.069 So where do you stand on Kirby now, Sultan?
Sultan responds still a scum lean but not nearly as strong about it.
2.074 So I also want to ask Sultan what makes Isquen a suspect?
Death answers some Cody questions about NL being viable.
2.108 I guess some people are also waiting for Isquen Ulti hasn't posted yet has he?
Death asks about my active years and is surprised I've never played with Lea before.
Says we should give Ulti a chance because of Covid.
2.133 Death reminds me to post my reads on Han and Sbell that was asked of me as he heads off for bed.
I tell him I already did.
2.135 Oh that was then.. Well my bad, I really did gloss over that at the time
2.207 I get a strange feeling from Sultan where it seems like he's forgotten all about his vote on Kirby at times. I cant deny that Isquens bussing comment is strange as well.

So apparently I lied earlier, because Death did comment on my thing about Isquen's bussing comment! That was still the only one though!

2.215 Red being away is not a tell either way.
2.223 Death asks Red about his reads on events so far.
2.226 That said I dont think Sbell is playing like he did in that game at all, and thats something I am glad to make note of.
2.237 Death comments again on Sultan's Kirby vote I throw out a lot of statements to see if someone else can make more or less of it. Also if you want to be accurate, its not an attack on the vote but an attack on him talking as if he hadnt voted Kirby yet.
2.239 And now that I see it again, him secondguessing himself away from Isquen because of 'likely real-life frustration that has nothing to do with gameplay' comes across as if it was rehearsed. Or fake in some way.
2.243 Death asks Isquen when he shows up specifically about how he feels on Sultan's Kirby vote and about how aligned he feels with HB.
Sultan asks about people's thoughts on Lea.
2.259 I also get wanting to go easy on her for the reasons you stated, though I believe she would tell us herself if she had difficulties getting into the groove so to speak.
2.273 Bold of Han to assume I am a scanner
2.317 Okay I havent caught up yet but anyone saying Plum is scummy..
Its not that I feel you are wrong, but I would like if if you could explain what feels different this time.
I have my own thing, but I am not sure about it.
Death steps in to Voice of Reason between Han and Peaf.
2.325 Ah you meant from a "why focus on the little details" angle.
Though honestly I'd say thats in character for him.
That said I do feel like Peaf should have his teeth sinking into a lot more players by now.
2.348 Okay I dont remember Peaf being the type to have these specific theories.
Doubts rising.
I'm not going to go digging for it, but I seem to remember last game Peaf claiming that he deserved to be considered for the award of Crazy Crackpot Theories or something of that nature. Not saying that Death is lying or saying anything wrong here, but stood out as peculiar.
2.350 Peaf replies that he always tries to convince people that Lopen is not the King of Madness, he (Peaf) is.
2.367 If we are shooting crackpot theories out there I am just gonna say that the scumteam is whoever got suspected last game and they are playing the exact opposite to avoid suspicion now and thats why we arent getting anywhere.
2.368 Death declares Lea/Ben conundrum as not suspicious, but hopes Lea posts more.
2.372 Btw HB feels a lot less angry at Sultan today. I would like to make a question out of that.
2.428 I also dont really know what made Sultan so obviously town last game and I wish I'd paid attention more now.
I dont know if Sbell being wrong has nothing to do with Sultan tho, considering that Plum seemed even more emboldened to pursue Sultan afterwards
2.447 After Han and Lea vote Isquen for pressure, Death votes Ben instead for activity reasons.

END OF TOPIC 2
Death continues to play Voice of Reason in nearly every interaction, but rarely offering his reads on anything. The thing that sticks out to me is that Death still seems to be actively talking about Sultan a lot. Some of that is because of the HB interaction, but it still seems evident that Death does not trust Sultan and is keeping him as an option. Is he scared of actually saying he thinks Sultan is scum since everyone else has soft-Town claimed him? Then the vote on Ben at the end of the topic looks odd. For someone who is quite measured with their vote, putting it on Ben AFTER Han and Lea move to Isquen, and not someone like Sultan that he has been focused on all game instead.

TOPIC 3
3.003 Death clarifies to Ulti that I was Town in the previous game D1.
3.016 Isquen if that was a claim, why wasnt it a claim?
3.023 In response to Cody saying one of the people helping him could be scum, If you want a cynical answer.
Being helpful to the new player is an easy way for scum to score points.
3.031 In response to Ben saying how busy he's been, Suddenly feeling less righteous about my vote.
3.041 I still want to know why [Kirby] thought it would be fun to special Ulti
3.053 I think Kirby has seen enough specials by now to not be so eager for them. But what do I know.
Isquen returns for the Isquisition.
Death focuses on asking questions about the Kirby voters at the start of the game.
3.100 In response to Isquen saying he won't claim. Also we cant all have a fun last minute claim like I did, so I think you should at least keep the option on the table.
3.117 Isquen please dont, I am trying to help you here if you are town.
3.119 Like I dont think his responses are that unexpected given that the whole game has dumped questions on him now.
3.131 In response to Peaf saying Sbell is a good pick Wait when did you start suspecting Sbell?
3.154 I am glad JC is still doing enough to delay my 'what is JC doing' posts.
3.189 Death unvotes Ben because of a certain snappyness to Bens posts now that I like
3.199 In response to Peaf asking about me, Dumey is there Same vibe I got from him last game Not that that helps his image much
3.203 Death announces he won't be here for deadline but his mind is going towards Kirby.
3.253 Death asks Peaf to clarify why he is not 100% on Ben anymore.
Asks Peaf to answer him several times about Ben.
3.298 Less than useful experiment aside, I am not okay with a Han lynch.
But I dont immediately feel that I should condemn Peaf for it either.
3.313 Welp I guess if a line in the sand has to be drawn, it is now before my brain shuts off. Death votes for Peaf.

END OF TOPIC 3
At the very least, Death made no attempts to bring up Sultan again in Topic 3, outside of asking Isquen about his opinions on the people who voted Kirby early. The things that stick out here are Death being a little defensive of Sbell in 3.131, mentioning Kirby as his suspicion in 3.203 despite never showing any suspicion for Kirby previously, and then leaving his vote on Peaf before leaving for the deadline despite never showing any suspicion for Peaf previously. If he (like I did) thought Isquen was not a realistic lynch choice anymore, then leaving his vote on Peaf here is pretty much the best option for a scum Death to do if Peaf is indeed town. Not necessarily scummy on it's own, but is a convenient coincidence.

ISO CONCLUSIONS
Death played Voice of Reason for most of the game, and was consistently very active. Just looking at the post numbers above, you can see he has been pretty much omni-present with only a few gaps here or there. But the few things he was very consistent on was talking about Sultan and Sbell. The Sultan stuff may be fueled a bit by the HB conversation in the middle of the first day, but Death was very Pro Sbell the entire day. If he is town, then his opening posts about being able to spot Scumbell are VERY ironic, or Death is scum and sticking his neck out for Sbell here, obviously not having expected Sbell to die to a bomb at all.

lmao.

Just to pre-empt anyone saying something about me faking effort as scum because a majority of this is just copy-pasting from the topic, I do not expect this to be an endorsement of me trying hard as town or anything. Literally just pay attention to the bottom sections, and glance at the list if you want quick context or a reference to go look back at a certain post.

In other words, I will join Peaf on Death at the moment.
##Vote: Death
Death when you check in, I'd like to ask you your opinion of Sultan.
You thought Sultan looked weird during the first part of the Day. Did you ever think he was scum? If you did, was there a certain point you stopped thinking that? Where did the Kirby and Peaf suspicion come from at the end of the day? I'd ask a question about your chumminess with SBell, but I feel like any answer you'd give me wouldn't give any real info.

Kirby321 posted...

Also... Cody, are you informed of when you are going to die from your burn? Like... do you die at the end of the current day, or the end of the following night? I find it weird that some people assumed the latter automatically...

Yeah, to clarify I do die at the end of night 2. I was not clear on that earlier.

Man Sbell had me fooled. Good for him I guess.

And Peaf is definitely town since he didnt hammer to save himself.
Also because he is doing that annoying 'Death is guilty and all my reads going forth will start from that perspective instead of a neutral one'

But Peaf I just want to say a thing that should be incredibly obvious to you.
Yes I voted this time. I even said why, I didnt want Han to be lynched.
Now cant you imagine a normal reason why I voted this time? Not even one?
How about the fact that I could not be around for deadline!? The fact that I could not afford the luxury of not voting this time and probably not for the rest of the game either!?!

Does this feel incredibly fake to anyone else? Again, regardless of han's alignment and how you feel about him, this is very similar to the sbell strategy on day 1. Be on han's good side. Even with their early disagreement, i think sbell ultimately wanted han to just get off his back. And even though Han wasn't on death's back here, it really looks to me like Death was just looking for any excuse to call Han town early game. We were literally not even a topic into the game, and death wanted to call out Han for being "attentive" and that meant that han wasn't scum? Surely you have more respect for han's play than that.

Regardless of Hans alignment? I think Sbell strategy makes more sense if Han is town IMO. But I suppose thats besides the point.
At any rate you are assuming way too much as usual. I didnt call Han town there. I just said he hadnt shown his scumtell yet. Of course it was too early to be sure about him.

Responding to EDumey next

UltimaterializerX posted...

Because the vote totals are not the same as actually reading. According to the former and ONLY the former, yours sticks out.

I dont think scum Ulti says this.

Anyways I would encourage reading

Han Ill still get back to you, far too not sober to properly digest things

EDumey, well it looks like I was entirely too confident about reading Sbell.
Guess him being sick really as all that mattered last game and I dont even know what a town Sbell acts like anymore.

The above directly seems very at odds with Death's first post about being able to recognize scumbell. If I'm being charitable, then Death is saying his experience being on the scum team didn't mean as much as his time being Town and scanning Sbell. Still noteworthy as it's defensive in context.

Thats what I was saying yes. I just wanted to point out that my direct scumteam experience was mostly you and Hans posts and Sbell didnt say a lot.
Though you would know that of course. (Not saying you are trying to misrepresent what it was like. Just that you were there)

The only other thing of note here is that when Sultan's vote on Kirby happened, Death was one of the people saying Sultan looked weird for it, but joined in on defending Sultan from HB's poor logic. Maybe this is just Voice of Reason taking priority here, but if anyone were to be suspicious of defending Sultan for no reason, Death's original thinking that Sultan looked weird and not taking that back at any point makes him the one to look at there.

I just cant stand bad logic being used against any other player. Half because it makes me want to understand (or unmask) the reasoning behind those attacks, half because I want them to do better.
Thats not defending Sultan for no reason. Though I will confess that I wish Sultan had done more defending himself.

I'm not going to go digging for it, but I seem to remember last game Peaf claiming that he deserved to be considered for the award of Crazy Crackpot Theories or something of that nature. Not saying that Death is lying or saying anything wrong here, but stood out as peculiar.

I honestly cant remember since he focused his attention all on me as far as I recall. Besides Lopen was the one with the craziest theories.

Death continues to play Voice of Reason in nearly every interaction, but rarely offering his reads on anything. The thing that sticks out to me is that Death still seems to be actively talking about Sultan a lot. Some of that is because of the HB interaction, but it still seems evident that Death does not trust Sultan and is keeping him as an option. Is he scared of actually saying he thinks Sultan is scum since everyone else has soft-Town claimed him? Then the vote on Ben at the end of the topic looks odd. For someone who is quite measured with their vote, putting it on Ben AFTER Han and Lea move to Isquen, and not someone like Sultan that he has been focused on all game instead.

I will also admit that I lost focus on Sultan (active focus) because everyone else did as well. It made me feel like I was wrong. Sultan also wasnt quiet like Ben, which I found more important to put pressure on at that time.Though as you will read later, I missed the part where Ben said he couldnt be around which made my pressure do little.

At the very least, Death made no attempts to bring up Sultan again in Topic 3, outside of asking Isquen about his opinions on the people who voted Kirby early. The things that stick out here are Death being a little defensive of Sbell in 3.131, mentioning Kirby as his suspicion in 3.203 despite never showing any suspicion for Kirby previously, and then leaving his vote on Peaf before leaving for the deadline despite never showing any suspicion for Peaf previously. If he (like I did) thought Isquen was not a realistic lynch choice anymore, then leaving his vote on Peaf here is pretty much the best option for a scum Death to do if Peaf is indeed town. Not necessarily scummy on it's own, but is a convenient coincidence.

ISO CONCLUSIONS
Death played Voice of Reason for most of the game, and was consistently very active. Just looking at the post numbers above, you can see he has been pretty much omni-present with only a few gaps here or there. But the few things he was very consistent on was talking about Sultan and Sbell. The Sultan stuff may be fueled a bit by the HB conversation in the middle of the first day, but Death was very Pro Sbell the entire day. If he is town, then his opening posts about being able to spot Scumbell are VERY ironic, or Death is scum and sticking his neck out for Sbell here, obviously not having expected Sbell to die to a bomb at all.

I should have said it out loud but I didn't want to lynch Isquen either. I settled on Peaf because I felt his answers to my questions were not satisfactory and ultimately I had to tie the knot somehow if I wanted to ensure that Han would not be lynched. I should have said more words about that as well but I was so...so tired already.
I dont know why you're saying that Isquen mattered there though. He was town. Me (or anyone else) not voting him is not suspicious.

And once again, I was wrong about Sbell. That is literally all.

Also I have been suspicious of Peaf before. Not greatly, but your ISO even highlights it.

EDumey I would ask you, what did you think of Sbell day1? I cant call your vote on me lazy due to your own ISO, but it still feels like it somehow.

Oh and I missed your question so let me answer that first.

Death when you check in, I'd like to ask you your opinion of Sultan.
You thought Sultan looked weird during the first part of the Day. Did you ever think he was scum? If you did, was there a certain point you stopped thinking that? Where did the Kirby and Peaf suspicion come from at the end of the day? I'd ask a question about your chumminess with SBell, but I feel like any answer you'd give me wouldn't give any real info.

- I thought there was a chance he could be scum. But I was never sure. His actions just fit a scum theory just as well as a town one. And I believe I started seeing his vote as the worst one after a while, because at first I was confused why Isquen singled that vote out. (He didn't in fact, he also commented on Lea's vote) I never stopped thinking it, I just kinda lost my attention on him gradually. (and HB being so aggressive probably influenced that as well. Though I did believe he was town)

- Answered this above, but Peaf had some odd moments and answers I didnt like fully. My failure was to not be more vocal about that. And In the end I was not that suspicious of him, just moreso than Han. As for Kirby. Someone pointed out how Kirby seemed to change over the day, and I agreed with that. Though right now I dont fully the feelings I had that made me say that stuff. I think its missing some context.

- I was just chimmy because Sbell was way more active and his talks with Han came across like town/town arguing. Sbell didnt really do anything suspicious either IMO.

Anyway (to start off another sentence with the latter A)
I think an ISO of Sbell, the directly confirmed scum, is more helpful at this point. So thats what I will be doing next. That and trying to figure out what scumteam kills Lea.

*I dont fully recall the feelings

htaeD posted...

Man Sbell had me fooled. Good for him I guess.

I don't know if the actual post #s add up, but he definitely didn't feel as present as last game. Then again I think it could just be chalked up the weirdness of having a recruiting role. It probably feels different when you can just recruit people that you'd rather not have opposing you on the town side

For me it was more that he was there in the now. Not endlessly catching up and acting distant

Anyway, basic part of the end of the last day. I think we can reasonably assume Peaf hammers there if hes scum. I think its been mentioned to death at this point, but its a reasonable assumption. Follow that, we can reasonably assume scum likely had no preference with two vanilla claims on the table. So we can probably safely townpile plum as well.

The weird vote at the end i'd say is kirby going Lea->Isquen, since we know that was town/town. That'd raise eyebrows but there was also a huge pile of town with voteleads at the end. Top 4 voteleaders at the end of day all being town makes me think scum was likely at the very least mostly inactive when it came to voting end of day. So going to need to dig into that a little bit and see who was around vs who was voting.

htaeD posted...

For me it was more that he was there in the now. Not endlessly catching up and acting distant

Thats fair. I have a hard time putting into words what triggers day 1 reads sometimes, but I would say last game I would read some of his posts and they felt like he was trying to look smart but not actually making genuine posts. Last game that is.

I also realize the irony of calling Sbell a person who didnt want to be stuck in the present, considering his flavor then was the main villain who wanted nothing more than to keep everything in the present.

Because a few (though surprisingly few imo) commented on it. I didn't just miss end of day, I missed like the last +12 hours for personal reasons completely unrelated to this game. Yes, it wouldn't been nice to give comment on that, having left a vote, all that, I am aware. It's unfortunate, it wont happen again. I can't prevent anyone from digging into it, but the only answer for a reason there is exists is that it has nothing to do with the game.

My current state of the game presented in a bunch of thoughts here and there.

Peaf is town
Ctes is town
HB is porbably town
Plum is probably town
Cody is town (or at least not mafia, unless somehow someone comes in and claims this burn)
Han is probably town

End of day is the most telling part of day 1. Peaf and Plum look unlikely scum to me from that. Hb is the same reasoning as yesterday.

I can't see any way Cody is lying here. I'm surprised that he's claiming burned and that it isn't just, you know, poison, which actually exists in Paper Mario and that Feeling Fine badge actually protects against (have to equip it first I think but whatever). IIRC burn is introduced in TTYD (or maybe Superstar Saga) and actually cures itself lol.

I'm hesitant to call Han more town than probable, but he looks very much like it. This is because I consider him more than good enough to fool me and that he was just scum. Rolling scum right after you were just scum is a great time to roll scum and I just had SBell fool me in the exact same case.

I liked Sultan's reaction to me catching him having reacted to the same post twice. My best bet is that SBell was too quick to pull the "oh this is typical town Sultan" card to pocket him when it wasn't all that apparent yet. I still don't think Sultan looks as town as many thought day 1, but he looks much better than I thought last I was here. I disagree with Ben that SBell's comments about Ulti is alignment indicative of Ulti at all.

For what it's worth, if I had been around at the end of yesterday, I think I would most likely have voted Dumey. Lea commented that his play felt much more criticizing of how people played than trying to find scum and I found myself agreeing with that. Dumey today stating that Lea only used woman's intuition as a reason is weird because it's incorrect and yet his Death walls are fixing exactly what was called out on there.

I also think JC looks bad at the end of the day. He looks like the player knowing the lynch was between town players, which looks most likely right now, and wants to look better by voting elsewise imo, but Lea was also town so I'm not sure. I want to look at end of day again.

red13n posted...

The weird vote at the end i'd say is kirby going Lea->Isquen, since we know that was town/town.

Kirby switched from unclaimed town to soft claimed vanilla town with that vote though. I don't think scum wants to do that if they can avoid it (and he could).

ctesjbuvf posted...

Kirby switched from unclaimed town to soft claimed vanilla town with that vote though. I don't think scum wants to do that if they can avoid it (and he could).

Yeah got to that part already.

Peace___Frog posted...

Day 1 votals:
Isquen [4] (Sultan), EDumey, (Han), (Lea), Kirby, Lea, Han
Peaf [3] - (Han), Ben, (Han), (Plum), Death, red
Lea [2] (Kirby), Sbell, JC
Plum [2] Peaf, (Han), Sultan
Han [1] - Isquen, (JC), (Sultan)
Sultan [1] - (Plum), Hb, (Isquen)
Dumey [0] - (Peaf), (Lea)
Ben [0] - (Peaf), (Lea), (Death)
Red [0] (JC)
Kirby [0] - (Han), (Lea), (Sultan), (Peaf)
Hb [0] - (Sultan)
Sbell [0] - (Plum)

Interesting that jc was on Lea with sbell, in retrospect.

I know i said that votes for other players very late in the day are likely town, but the vote on plum by Sultan is funny no matter how you look at it.

Could you please elaborate on that, Sultan? You voted for Plum and said "sure". What was that in response to?

Still planning on rereading Sbell today but this is a great point

##Vote:Sultan

I thought Sultan was scum yesterday and with Peaf/Isquen being a nearly locked town/town lynch that gives sultan a bit of a bind of how to vote. Him voting me here for what seems like dubious reasons could be him finding a pretense to vote anyone.

Though I think this vote occurred before isquen took off but the same logic applies if Peaf is town. How do you put a vote down but dont end up on the town lynch?

In this scenario I think its extremely unlikely that Han is scum. If Sultan flips scum then Han is almost certainly town. I dont think there is any way scum sultan hops on a prompt from a scummate

So Im still awake meaning Ill miss the morning rush and discuss my end of day actions because it appears to be poorly understood. Han your ISO is tomorrow because I think your reaction to this will be important.

First, I will clarify my intention was to tie Lea with Isquen and Peaf. What I didnt realize was that Kirby had gotten off Lea (I knew she had 2 votes but only remembered SBell at that point. Kirby may have said ##unvote: Lea but I missed it idk). I saw the Isquen train going and picking up steam and if you take my combined notes on my rankings it was Lea > Isquen = Peaf. I preferred Lea getting lynched and I wanted either her to be tied on or honestly was just more okay with her either way.

And does this really make sense as a scum thing to do? And apologies that this is somewhat wifom but if I was scum and knew the top candidates were all town, why bother drawing the attention to myself?