Board 8 > Paper Mario Mafia Topic 10 - Thinner Mario, Bigger Adventure!

(+) Yeah! (+)

I don't see why they can't necessarily both be truthful. Yes, both of them could have used Ben's claim as a shield, and Ulti feels more likely to me due to the way he tried to confirm Ben's role.

But if Ben were making a fake claim like that, don't you think it would probably be because they only had one or very few Star Spirits on their safe list? If there really were only a couple star spirits, then Ben's fake claim just seems needlessly risky. That logic PROBABLY points us to their being more start spirits in the game than just what has flipped. That type of flavor meta though is something I don't care to condemn or confirm anyone with.

I do understand your PoE from your perspective though.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Live reactions to questions are better than bro go look it up. Come now.

Reading the game is better than "1 + 1 = 3". Come now.

Overall, I don't think Red ever mentioned Dumey at all. He also barely mentioned Ulti and just swept him aside as "he hasn't done much" but did ultimately settle on "Ulti is scum."

Red also completely forgot about Peaf in one of his posts, and if they were scummates, I'd imagine he wouldn't just forget about him.

Earlier on, he kept pushing that Hb was town. Could be a pocket, could be a bus (or whatever the equivalent is for calling your scummate town).

Not as useful as I was hoping it would be, as Red seemed to really cover his bases. But I think this does make Peaf look better imo

Perhaps someone else can find something that I didn't see in Red's posts, but that's my analysis. My stance on Ulti might change, but I think Dumey -> Hb is still the way to go. But afterward? It's a toss-up between Ulti and Plum.

masterplum posted...

If it's not ulti then it's someone else. Haven't thought through that scenario and I'm honestly not going to waste my time going that far until after your scan result tbh

I'm not revealing my scan result until you do, tbh

I dont think youre out of the woods either Kirby, you spent a bunch of time yesterday trying to push Red as independent extremely hard.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Just general agreeing with you or following you, without it being explicit.

That is news to me, because he didn't really engage with me until he voted me... at which point he was asking for your thoughts.

Of note is that both of you said absolutely no to sbell, then he agreed with you that he preferred to lynch Plum over Dumey.

That is one more knock i have against Dumey, by the way.

Hbthebattle posted...

I dont think youre out of the woods either Kirby, you spent a bunch of time yesterday trying to push Red as independent extremely hard.

I really have no excuse besides I flavor meta'd really hard and got burned.

But here's my defense: we know JC was roleblocked N2. I was roleblocked N3, but let's pretend I'm scum.

We know Han wasn't roleblocked, so then Ctes would have been roleblocked... except he was vanilla. If I'm scum and knew I blocked him, I'd raise huge questions about how Ctes managed to pull off a flavor scan. That should have been a huge red flag that there was something amiss, and yet scum fell for the bait hook, line, and sinker.

If there was an attempt to roleblock Ctes on N3, then Ctes and Han's gambits completely fall apart.

Like Han said, the only way I could be scum is if the roleblocker and the burner were the same role, as a jack of all trades. I know that's not the case since I've been roleblocked twice now (or at least, if there's a jack, their roleblock ain't one-shot), so you'll just have to take my word for it. But if there's a full-time roleblocker and I'm scum, then there's no way one of Han or Ctes doesn't get roleblocked N3.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

After skimming last topic, not sure why I said Ben was shadowsheeping you, Peaf. Might have been in an earlier topic, but iso on phones sucks so I'm not going to bother.

Kirby321 posted...

(T3, #402)
"##vote: peaf

As you wish then."
(I have no clue who he was referring to. Between his "I missed everything someone catch me up" post and his vote above, only Ben seemed to suggest voting Peaf)

I said vote where your heart tells you to. He was replying to that.

That checks out. I completely missed that post when skimming through that page on Topic 3.

The problem with that logic, Kirby, is that if they RBd Ctes and he came back saying roleblocked, you couldnt also claim roleblocked. Thus, I dont think scum would RB ctes there.

Hbthebattle posted...

The problem with that logic, Kirby, is that if they RBd Ctes and he came back saying roleblocked, you couldnt also claim roleblocked. Thus, I dont think scum would RB ctes there.

I also think Kirby claimed Rb's before Ctes posted, iirc?

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I also think Kirby claimed Rb's before Ctes posted, iirc?

Yeah. In a Ctes gets RBd scenario, Scum Kirby never does this. He just claims that Dumey was immune to another attack.

Is anybody available to compile people's lists of poe's into one post? I'm on mobile so I don't want to fuck with that

Kirby says: Dumey -> Hb -> Plum/Ulti

Ulti says: Plum -> Hb -> Han

Plum says: It's pretty clearly Dumey into Ulti

Peaf says: Lynch Dumey. If Scum, then Ulti or hb is the last one. Leaning towards Ulti, but hb hasn't done himself any favors. If dumey is town, then it could be both Ulti and hb. If there's only one scum in there, though, then i would suspect plum before Kirby.

Dumey says: Lynch Kirby [...] I think I would go Ulti > HB > Plum. But honestly, if Ulti turned out to be town, I think I would value his personal read of Plum more and go Plum > HB.

Hb says: Plum/Ulti are a pair [...] Hans not scum, Peafs not scum. Only one of Kirby and Dumey can be scum from a logical perspective.

I think that's everyone? Let me know if I missed anything or made errors

I am not. I'm being rude by even being on my phone right now, but should have some breaks this afternoon.

I'm not opposed to ending day early to avoid burnout and lethargy.

In summary, Peaf is completely off of everyone's PoE, and Plum seems to be on the lower end, except for Ulti who put him right at the top and I guess Hb who didn't really rank his PoE in terms of scum likelihood.

So the popular picks for today seem to be Dumey, Ulti, and Hb.

I would like plum and Ulti to readjust, but if they won't, I can just keep things going.

I really would like plum to, though. Just to give a little more.

Ulti I have no expectations for

I would like you to know I was compiling a list for you, but Kirby did a better job than me so I deleted it out of shame.

I would like to hear HB give a preference in the two pairs he's identified. Specifically whether he likes Ulti or Plum more.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I really would like plum to, though. Just to give a little more.

Ulti I have no expectations for

I'm just a busy person and don't enjoy spending time on hypotheticals that will change immediately after new information is presented.

If you have a flavor scan of ulti being town I wouldn't be shocked.

Maybe there is a world where I accidentally saved scum peaf?

I.... don't see how that is possible but I would need to review who was on at the time.

Innocent scan of Dumey would shock me though. Kirby is a scum monster if that is true

Fair enough, Plum.

I'm going to review one thing when I get the chance, then I'll go into scan and thoughts from there

If Dumey is somehow town, then I have absolutely no clue why scum would waste their roleblocks on me and not toss a single one toward Ctes or Han. Only explanation would be is if they wanted to make me look like scum for a mislynch setup.

But I don't think it's possible for Dumey to be anything but scum. The minute they stop roleblocking me, Dumey dies, so there has to be a reason why they're insistently blocking me.

EDumey posted...

I would like you to know I was compiling a list for you, but Kirby did a better job than me so I deleted it out of shame.

I would like to hear HB give a preference in the two pairs he's identified. Specifically whether he likes Ulti or Plum more.

I think Ulti looks pretty clearly worse, because of his interactions with Ben.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Im curious about everyones thoughts on this I get lynched and flip town vanilla, who do you then lynch?

Gee, if only I compiled a list of everyone's PoEs that soundly answers that question!

N3...

10 alive
Ctes
Dumey
Han
Hb
Kirby
Peaf
Plum
Red
Ulti
JC

If we assume 3 Scum alive at that point, then allowing a Town Kirby to punt a Town Dumey means that the next day is 3/8. MYLO... but gets Red one step closer to an extra shot. RB on Ctes occurs, they kill JC... Kirby is confirmed as extra killing. But probably Town.

That leaves
Kirby
Han
Ctes
Peaf
Plum
Ulti
Hb
Red

2 Scum in Peaf, Plum, Ulti, Hb

If Scum believe that Ctes and I can confirm, and that this exonerates Kirby, then they still only need to ensure one mislynch this day between whichever of those four are Town. If it's Peaf and Hb, for example, then it'd be hard to get Peaf lynched for sure. Hb, or Plum, would be easier lynches. So I guess if Peaf is Scum, then this makes more sense, but otherwise, it's a difficult lynch to create.

Otherwise, we have the scenario we have right now where we're not in MYLO. They didn't expect Red to get lynched... but even still, Kirby/Dumey was going to resolve in some way.

If Kirby is Town, then this RB is just protecting a Scum Dumey.
If Kirby is Scum, then he walked into a hole of his making and the only out was getting Red to night 5 so that there were two extra kills, but Scum likely wins at this moment anyway.

It's really very hard to imagine that Scum would prevent a Town on Town kill from going through. But I won't lie, if the remaining Scum were Red/Peaf/one other, then I could see it working out. especially if Plum is the third.

But that just feels so very unlikely.

Kirby321 posted...

Gee, if only I compiled a list of everyone's PoEs that soundly answers that question!

Don't be mean to Ulti, we know he's not reading the game.

UltimaterializerX posted...

You mean me not thinking hes scum? I can do that if youre hinting that you scanned him and honestly want me to, but his actual play has been so bad man.

I mean you having me in your poe when I just explained that it's not possible for me to be Scum unless Kirby is my Scummate.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

But I won't lie, if the remaining Scum were Red/Peaf/one other, then I could see it working out. especially if Plum is the third.

You got me, i was desperately trying to throw two scum under the bus with an hour to go in day 1, and red voted to kill me knowing that you would unvote.

Peace___Frog posted...

You got me, i was desperately trying to throw two scum under the bus with an hour to go in day 1, and red voted to kill me knowing that you would unvote.

WIFOM ALERT WEEWOO WEEWOO

i'm sorry peaf i love you. tell han to stop blue balling us.

This game has permanently tainted the term WIFOM lmao

UltimaterializerX posted...

Any PoE with me on it is incorrect and needs to be redone tho.

You're literally on every POE. Every possible POE.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Oh I did that mentally already, no worries.

No, you didn't.

Give us an updated poe.

Peace___Frog posted...

You got me, i was desperately trying to throw two scum under the bus with an hour to go in day 1, and red voted to kill me knowing that you would unvote.

If it's true, it'd be the greatest gambit :P

Anyway, I've got my stuff typed up, but since Ulti is here, I'll wait for him to respond.

EDumey posted...

i'm sorry peaf i love you. tell han to stop blue balling us.

It's only wifom if you think i have the biggest balls on the board tbh.

I'm still voting for you in the absence of anything worthwhile from Han, buddy.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Any PoE with me on it is incorrect and needs to be redone tho.

You've done a heck of a job making that case. Almost as well as hb.

Peace___Frog posted...

It's only wifom if you think i have the biggest balls on the board tbh.

I'm still voting for you in the absence of anything worthwhile from Han, buddy.

and i think you're dumb for putting that much credit in kirby going after ben, despite a couple people saying kirby has a precedent of bussing ben, and seemingly ignoring all of kirby's behavior after.

i'm not sure there's anything i can say to change your mind. if seeing kirby try to save red's life last day didn't at least throw up a red flag in your mind, then it seems like you're unwilling to challenge your bias!

Peace___Frog posted...

You've done a heck of a job making that case. Almost as well as hb.

Let's not be mean - Ulti hasn't communicated in a way that implies he's followed the game at all, but he has done more than Red this game.

Well that's why i didn't compare him to red.

I think I'm going to just post my stuff and deny Ulti the opportunity to gain any goodwill from thinking things through. Sound good?

You've already given him multiple opportunities imo

Way I see it, there are a few ways of looking at this:

The easy answer
In which DVC is banging their heads against the wall waiting for us to get a move on.

Dumey is Scum, and Kirby has him caught in a corner.
Then Ulti. Following Ulti, it'd be Plum as the less-good looking Town, or Peaf as the big-brain eod1 Scum, which is very unlikely.

The Desperate Claim
In which Kirby is lying, and as soon as Dumey flips Town, they'll try to convince us to look elsewhere.

This one has me nervous because I believe at least Ulti and Peaf have both expressed not wanting to lynch Kirby if Dumey flips Town? Either of them would pair with Kirby in this scenario. It is also possible that Kirby is a Scum Jack on his own here. More likely Ulti is the partner, though.

The Kirby/Dumey Town/Town
As just stated, this is best explained by Peaf being Scum, or somebody bossing a pairing of, say, Ulti/Plum around. I don't buy that. This would be Peaf/Plum as the Scumteam, I think. And Peaf as Scum is very hard to buy. Which means it would have to be Ulti as Scum. Ulti/Plum is a weird Scumteam in this remainder of the game.

The Kirby/Dumey Scum/Scum
In which Scum theater ensures one is lynched and expects us to let the other live. The good news is, if this is true, we don't lose a mislynch by lynching Dumey today. This would probably lead to me and Dumey dead...
Kirby, Peaf, Plum, Hb, Ulti
Kirby, Peaf, Plum

So it would be down to Kirby, Peaf, and Plum. This is dangerous, but if Dumey is RB, then Kirby is in hot water. This scenario feels only likely if Dumey doesn't flip RB.

Let me do a quick test here...
Lynch Dumey, I die
Kirby, Peaf, Plum, Hb, Ulti
Lynch Kirby, Hb dies
Peaf, Plum, Ulti

Or if Dumey flips Scum (not RB) and we trust Kirby:
Lynch Dumey, I die
Kirby, Peaf, Plum, Hb, Ulti
Lynch Ulti, Hb dies
Kirby, Peaf, Plum

One more - lynch Dumey, he's the RB. Then what?:
Lynch Dumey, I die, Kirby fires... I suppose you would have a hammer and 3 targets all who claimed flying. Easy to clear one by claiming a hammer miss. It would also be the way to ensure you don't hit Town. But jumping, let's say you jump and hit Town.
Kirby, Peaf, Plum, Hb
Lynch Plum, Kirby wallops on Peaf. Town can't lose if Kirby is Town here. If Kirby doesn't fire off, then who knows?

HanOfTheNekos posted...

The easy answer
In which DVC is banging their heads against the wall waiting for us to get a move on.

Dumey is Scum, and Kirby has him caught in a corner.
Then Ulti. Following Ulti, it'd be Plum as the less-good looking Town, or Peaf as the big-brain eod1 Scum, which is very unlikely.

Is there a reason for you to exclude hb from the easy answer?

Yes.

Is it even worth trying to move you on lynching Kirby instead of me? Am I the test target here because you think I'm more likely scum than Kirby, or because lynching Kirby doesn't give as favorable scenarios even if they're scum?

I don't think I'm smart enough to get either of those final 3's right tbh, with how bad I've been this game.

I battled it a bit last night. Here's what I determined:

Dumey - not worth scanning, since he could be Gourmet Guy as Scum
Kirby - Possibly worth scanning, but probably not since we're likely resolving this whole thing today anyway
Peaf - Not worth scanning, since all signs point to Town

Left 3: Ulti, Plum, Hb
Ulti is the lowest hanging fruit, most likely to be lynched. I could clear him if he's Town, but then we have to decide between Plum and Hb, and Hb gets lynched first there.
Thinking that Plum is the most Townish, I scanned Hb.

Hb is Peach.

EDumey posted...

Is it even worth trying to move you on lynching Kirby instead of me? Am I the test target here because you think I'm more likely scum than Kirby, or because lynching Kirby doesn't give as favorable scenarios even if they're scum?

Probably not, but we have time to put thought into it.