Board 8 > Blade Mafia 5 Section 4 Article 3

(+) Yeah! (+)

So let's mass claim everything we have and put our heels to the necks of scum. Being cryptic doesn't help town at all. It only confuses town and ultimately helps scum because town starts looking where they shouldn't.

I dont know that we need to mass necessarily. If isquen roleblocked someone and is confident they weren't the target of a scum kill, we went from 3 kills to 1, barring any other claim of kill stoppage I would wager he likely just blocked scum.

Leafeon13N posted...

I dont know that we need to mass necessarily. If isquen roleblocked someone and is confident they weren't the target of a scum kill, we went from 3 kills to 1, barring any other claim of kill stoppage I would wager he likely just blocked scum.

Or (more likely) scum used their Looper extra kill on n1 (evidenced by the d1 Lea flip) and either vigi or lea pgo resulted in the Looper dying.

I wouldn't assume scum has more than 1 extra kill so I'm not surprised by only 1 kill tonight.

.

But I do think BCT and Isquen should find a moment and same-time-post WHO they targeted. BCT shouldn't tell us what it was he was attempting to do, but at least who it was aimed at should be reasonable.

But I think isquen should NOT reveal the n1 target. We already know which two scum submitted the n1 actions. The Looper on Lea and dumey on Corrik. Isquen has already implied that their n1 target didn't seem to indicate the block so most likely it would only serve to clarify a town vanilla to scum so they can hit power more easily.

If the JK is real then we can at least verify someone who did not send the Plum kill last night.

Behold, the rare moment where I do my homework during the nightphase, here is my Dumey ISO:

Abacus voted EDumey because of RNG. EDumey later said that people should not vote Abacus for it because Abacus didnt stick around and also because he thought it was a joke. He singled out Ulti here but Wallz also did it (as Chang mentioned at the time) In any case EDumey seemed upset that Abacus never unvoted him, which in itself is a thing that seems risky for a scummate to do. Besides that Dumey did not want to vote Abacus at the end of the day.

EDumey felt FD was off because of his attack on BCT and liked Reds vote on BCT more. On the other hand he called out the FD voters near the end of the day and seemed uninterested in his lynch when it came down to it. FD used this as his only reason to like EDumey.

EDumey also repeated this kind of observation with Sbell votes, liking Wallz' vote more than Peafs. But later he sounded more agreeable with Peafs justifications.
Edumey earlier did vote Peaf as a gag. Peaf called that funny but also saw it as a nultell. Peaf in turn was okay with a lynch of EDumey at the end of the day. EDumey however didnt sound as upset with Peaf as he was with IGCD.

As for Wallz, in the end Dumey claimed to be neutral on Wallz (and FD), but he did not rule out maybe voting Wallz. He asked Peaf to convince him on lynching Wallz, but Peaf was already more focused on lynching Sultan at that point. So I think Walls chances of scum depend on Peafs chances of being scum.

Dumey jokingly commented on Lea's suspicion of Ulti backing away from BCT, leaving it to her to decide. He never said much about BCT himself and seemed to have no interest in him or his lynch.

He Called IGCD town but claimed he was biased.
IGCD in turn didnt like EDumey trying to push the Sultan lynch when that started. Their interactions sorta read like they arent partners since EDumey didnt just defend himself but also slandered IGCD to snap back.

Disagreed with Plum on NLing and believed he was trying to defend a Sultan scummate (which we know isnt true now). Suspected him and Plum of being scum together.

Wanted Ctes to talk more and didnt like that Corrik called Ctes town.
He lated floated a theory with a scumteam of Ctes/Plum/Corrik/Sultan/Death (all because of me joking about the scumteam being depressed. Maybe he was the one stealth complaining instead, haha)

Though my recollection is that jailkeeper only protects the jailed person from being killed. Is it wiae to assume anyone who targets isquens target would get an action failed?

Both mafiascum and MU seem to back this up as well.

But maybe b8 variation is different?

Tldr version

I like IGCD a bit more

I am undecided on Ctes since his scumminess depended on others, according to Dumey.

Abacus could go either way, but him leaving his vote on Dumey all day makes me think he is likelier town than scum.

I am more wary of Peaf and a little of FD as well. Wallz still looks moderately suspicious.

And yes I would like to know who BCT targeted as well.
Because from my experience its totally possible that he targeted someone who could be untargetable.

htaeD posted...

and a little of FD as well.

Because of dumey? I felt like his posts at the end of d1 were just to ingratiate himself with me, but as one of the lynch leaders I was in no position to turn down any help to not be there lynch leader.

And it is true that plum and BCTs logic to vote me in that spot was complete crap. He (dumey) was just a scum who could truthfully call out a bad vote while simultaneously trying to curry favor.

And no Jailkeeping should not make someone immune to actions as well, usually.

I suppose Isquen, if town, didnt actually roleblock the scumroleblocker since IGCD still got blocked.
But I have no idea why scum didnt block Abacus night1 then.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Because of dumey? I felt like his posts at the end of d1 were just to ingratiate himself with me, but as one of the lynch leaders I was in no position to turn down any help to not be there lynch leader.

And it is true that plum and BCTs logic to vote me in that spot was complete crap. He (dumey) was just a scum who could truthfully call out a bad vote while simultaneously trying to curry favor.

Yeah because of Dumey. But I want to make clear its not a strong feeling.

Of course I have also been thinking you are the least confirmed neighbor, but I also dont know why scum would shoot one of 3 neighbors if one of the 3 is scum.

And I also admit the day1 circumstances were not fair for you if you are town

Either isquen is actually the scum blocker and is lying about not targeting igcd

Or there's a scum blocker out there who targeted igcd n1 and BCT night 2?

Or some combination of isquen and igcd and BCT are lying.

But I'd forgotten about igcds claimed n1 block so knowing isquen's (alleged) n1 target can at least provide us with someone who's not role blocker.

Thats true

As for why scum killed Plum
I have no idea
Even a theoretical mafia scanner (Like what dumey fake claimed) shouldnt have been able to get anything out of Plums role.

Right that's something Chang and I had been mulling over earlier. To me it stands to reason that if plum's role exists there must be something in the game that could interact with it.

Regular Mafia kill shouldn't count.
Mafia extra kill shouldn't count.
Mafia rb would technically count, but plum doesn't contain an active ability so "foiling" a rb would serve no purpose.

What then? Just straight up Mafia role cop or Mafia detective? I guess it make sense for dumey to claim a role similar to a role an ally has and hope he survived yesterday and could just fake claim his scummate's action.

There didn't seem to be much that could exist and some ideas would be really out there, like some kind of 3rd party recruiter? That one would be interesting because it's something that Plum would have been immune to but also something that could conceivably target a Neighbor and might justify why we weren't Masons instead.

oh i might not have explicitly said this but i think plum might have actually been immune to the SBell extra kill. it specifically said hes immune to bullets but SBell was doing time travel jutsu stuff to kill people / erase them from existence. But maybe thats all just for flavor and anything could kill him

idk anyways Im going to bed, be back late afternoon tomorrow (busy day)

I have barely skimmed this game and am gonna be busy for a few hours, so bear with me while I catch up. I read the first two topics as they were coming, briefly, and I remember liking both Death and Wallz. Chang also seems pretty clean from this topic alone. Expect an analysis of sorts soon.

Heya Sheep. Look forward to reading it, especially your take on Wallz.

Btw someone saying I would shoot Plum out of fear of Sheep replacing him is just silly
(though I didnt think it was supposed to be a serious accusation anyway)
Scum me is way more pragmatic than that. Plus Mzero was the likelier replace anyway.

changmas posted...

also my current prevailing crackpot theory on why scum would kill plum is maybe unfair to try and meta. but i'm guessing Sheepfear? it was unclear who he would be replacing and plum was the natural assumption due to...reasons.

Really? I thought MZero was by far and away the most likely guess.

Anyway, let me try to gather my thought. I don't think a lot of things make sense right now (and it's nice because it makes the game more interesting.

Chang is pretty much near confirmed town from the Dumey lynch, unless he pulled off something similar to be in previous game, which I think he could, but we're not anywhere near a point where it's a thought to follow though.

Working from the assumption that Chang is indeed town and truthful, FD has to be town as well or Dumey would have had whatever knowledge about Corrik/masons Chang said scum didn't have. Further working from trust in Chang, BCT is apparently town too. I don't understand this, but I don't need to currently I premuse.

Isquen is jailmaster and targeted neither person we know got blocked. I think I need to Isquen to drop at least one of the targets, probably n2 is better. I think Isquen looked pretty terrible coming in yesterday and being this mysterious about a role that could be scum blocker is not a great look.

I think it would be useful to know because I'm gonna go ahead and be the person to say I doubt Plum was a mafia kill and then you can judge me for it. We went from three kills to one weird kill. While it's possible Lea can explain the SBell kill, it doesn't make the Plum kill less weird.

As far as I read it, Abacus/Isquen is responsible for neither block we know of, so that means IGCD would have something this night, right?

Anyway, so step 1 is that we need Isquen and BCT to be more specific.

What's weird about the Plum kill, Ctes? The only better option I can see is Chang and he was an obvious protection choice. Red, Death and IGCD are probably on that tier below Chang, along with Plum, and I wouldn't have found it strange if any of those died.

He wasn't generally viewed as town and several people had claimed powers. I don't think your list there is common. If he flipped some active power then maybe I could be sold on mafia maybe scanning him but yeah.

Of course it's also on top of no one claiming the SBell kill and kills dropping from 3 to 1.

I'm not saying it's a lock. But someone who protected someone out there should feel good about who they protected imo.

Sheep, what makes Red and Death on that tier for you? I get IGCD due to his roleblocked claim, but Im not sure why on the other two.

I didn't realise Chang was the one who scanned Dumey when posting earlier so I feel a bit silly saying he looks good from this topic >_>

ctesjbuvf posted... Really? I thought MZero was by far and away the most likely guess.

I assumed I would be replacing Plum as well after he decided to nuke his account. Think any talk of either dying to try and kill me was a joke though, it was confirmed that I replaced MZero about five minutes after I volunteered to replace if anyone is really that scared of me.

If Abacus voted in any way other than how he did, I'd be practically confirming his slot already. Still would be a weird way to start the day voting a scummate, so minor town points for Isquen. The roleblocking stuff is making me a tad wary but I'm going to put my focus elsewhere until the latter stages of today.

Red is probably just town, need a bit more from him to be sure.

My take on Wallz was simply that he looked too relaxed for his scum game. I think it markedly improved last time out, but I was thinking that it's been a while so there might be some rust. However, after reading past the first few pages of topic one... yea okay I see the problem everyone else is having. Then the vote. It feels so incongruous with the day. Sultan literally claimed power and Wallz hasn't even mentioned him once in the topic where he votes him. The only mention I could find full stop was #218 t1. And then he goes back to discussing MZero for the exact same things Sultan was doing, then focuses on MZero at the end of the day over the person he's going to choose to vote? It's not like there was potential for a special either, the game was pretty dead. It's such a wet blanket of a vote and I don't even see the thought process behind saving FD to feel better about it. He's actively been ignoring Sultan up to that point, as well. His actions were somewhere between sleepwalking to a Town lynch or actively standing by and hoping it happens, and none of his activity is nearly as thoughtful as I know he's capable of as Town.

For people who think Wallz is Scum, do you also think FD is Scum for that EoD?

wallmasterz posted...

Sheep, what makes Red and Death on that tier for you? I get IGCD due to his roleblocked claim, but Im not sure why on the other two.

I just think both have looked like Town tbh, don't think Death is gonna get lynched for a long time and Red if Town is easily the best solver in the game and someone Scum need to take down soon rather than shots in the dark.

Oh, and reading Dumey's flip properly, BCT is kinda right in the first post of today and there is likely either a multi-shot vig or an SK in this game. I'm also chill with that explanation for Plum's death, but don't see a ton of value in discussing this much further right now.

Maybe we should have Isquen and BCT sametime their targets
Just so we dont give either one an advantage in case they are lying

Leafeon13N posted...

I think the play is probably kill ctes.

But I also want to know who isquen targeted.

Is Wallz a good option to you, today? And if we somehow cleared both Wallz and Ctes in one fell swoop, where would you look next?

Oh and did Plum take down his account before or after Crescent asked for and got a 2nd replace?

Trust me. Hosting games with items are more headache than its worth.

htaeD posted...

Oh and did Plum take down his account before or after Crescent asked for and got a 2nd replace?

Plum got suspended a couple hours before, but I think going too deep on it is dirty meta and unlikely to be useful regardless.

Same timing from BCT and Isquen is probably a good idea, if both are happy to do so. They both have claims out there at this stage, so I think it's acceptable. Although I am inclined to assume Isquen just blocked BCT given Scum blocker probably isn't targeting a vanilla claim, which I believe BCT put forwards early on?

UltimaterializerX posted...

Wallz was all over SBell topic 1, and all evidence suggests SBell was their extra kill.

Does Scum Wallz bus the teams extra kill on day 1? I dont see it.

Like I said, I can see it as a possibility if Peaf is scum as well. But at beast Peaf only looks slightly circumstantially bad so thats not saying much.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Wallz was all over SBell topic 1, and all evidence suggests SBell was their extra kill.

Does Scum Wallz bus the teams extra kill on day 1? I dont see it.

I think this is giving Wallz too much credit. Go back and read it again. He was done with SBell pretty much by page four of the first topic, certainly not enough weight behind it for me to find that compelling. It was actually the reason I felt good about him in the first place when skimming as a spectator! His end of D1 onwards is far more important to me - any critical analysis went completely awol the second his actions were meaningful.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Wallz was all over SBell topic 1,

He really wasn't though. He made a few jabs against him early on and backed off really easily. Dumey gave him more credit for showing his work than he gave to me, but that was really only for the first 12 hours of the game.

Sheep007 posted...

For people who think Wallz is Scum, do you also think FD is Scum for that EoD?

No. Fd has other things going for him that Wallz does not. Please don't boil my argument against Wallz down to only "dumey's eod1 actions". Before that it was also very dependent on sbell, and the sbell/fd and sbell/ wallz connections are markedly different from one another.

Death, i disagree with one of your assessments.

htaeD posted...

Peaf was already more focused on lynching Sultan at that point. So I think Walls chances of scum depend on Peafs chances of being scum.

I was never focused on lynching Sultan. I explained this multiple times yesterday. I was on mobile and had some things going on, to where i couldn't easily be tasked with trying to lay out an argument. I felt more strongly that fd was town than i felt Sultan was town or Wallz was scum, so my priority was saving fd.

And finally, if you think wallz and i are scum together at this point, you have to think that my ability to play up scum theater has improved tenfold since you and i were on a team together. I spent basically half of day 1 and 95% of day 2 calling for Wallz' head.

As far as bct being blocked... we can surmise that the thing in his mailbox was immediate use only. We can also assume it's from chang/fd and the fact that it got to bct at all means it was not one of them who was blocked. So someone targeted a block on bct, or we have some randomizer bouncer or whatever who reflects any night actions on them into a random other player at night?

Because blocking bct, claimed vanilla, when both Wallz and i alluded to having strong powers that could end the game, is very ridiculous.

I feel like a mass takes the fun out of the mystery but i guess it is day 3...

UltimaterializerX posted...

Discussing Plums suspension should be similar to replacement meta, aka not allowed.

Only mentioned it because now I see why people thought Sheep was replacing him.
No more needs to be said.

Sheep007 posted...

I think this is giving Wallz too much credit. Go back and read it again. He was done with SBell pretty much by page four of the first topic, certainly not enough weight behind it for me to find that compelling. It was actually the reason I felt good about him in the first place when skimming as a spectator! His end of D1 onwards is far more important to me - any critical analysis went completely awol the second his actions were meaningful.

+1

After Wallz dropped sbell, he waffled on inactive abacus and then finally voted for Sultan at the very end of the day out of unnecessary self preservation at that point. His d2 was defending against me and giving an actual argument against bct which i did admittedly find appealing.

Mzero posted literally once with no comment d1. Sultan did a few only voting posts but by the middle and end of d1 he started actually talking a little bit, so I disagree with the same difference assessment towards mzero and sultans activity levels.

I voted sultan because I knew I was town, and I wasnt sure with him. I didnt have an opinion on sultan by the end of d1.

As I stated earlier, I shared my thoughts about sbell in full detail and let up because *whispers* no one cared. If whatever killed sbell n1 didnt happen, hed almost assuredly still be alive right now and coasting along. There is no point in me being a broken record after I made a case against sbell and it gained zero traction.

I apologize for losing some nuances by summarizing the end of the day, Peaf.
Also didnt remember that you were on mobile at the time.
But the fact that in the end you sorta chose to focus Wallz on Sultan instead of letting him follow you to Sbell still could say something
Maybe moreso about Wallz than you tho.

I shouldnt say 'follow' actually, you werent even on Sbell at the time I believe.
Wallz just knew you were a vocal Sbell suspector.

PeaceFrog posted...

He really wasn't though. He made a few jabs against him early on and backed off really easily.

According to sbell, early on something like eight of my dozen posts to that point were about sbell and suspecting him. Its fine if everyone wants to say I didnt stick to sbell all day but its not like I posted about him once or twice and then dropped it. And guess what, no one was joining me on him! Why be a broken record all day when no one saw what I saw or wanted to act on it?

Wallz its also that you seemed to give Sbell more freedom yourself after a while.
You unvoted him because he started posting more.

I was on him too but yeah i hear you. I also got off his case easily when you started looking scummy, but i still said that I'd shoot the both of you if i had two guns.

The reason i can still see you as scum with him is that i respect your skill and ability to take the chance that you push your strongman janitor out on d1.

htaeD posted...

letting him follow you to Sbell

This was impossible at day end. The main reason i suspected plum is that he made fun of my attempt to offer up sbell at the end of the day. And wallz, iirc, didn't mention sbell again after unvoting him

htaeD posted...

Wallz its also that you seemed to give Sbell more freedom yourself after a while.
You unvoted him because he started posting more.

Not so much that he was posting more, but he definitely settled into the game and his posts improved. Its not like he was getting to be a serious lynch candidate and thats when I suddenly changed my tune. It was just my natural reaction to sbell, whether everyone likes it or not.