Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 411: Presidential Election MMXX Rebirth

(+) Yeah! (+)

I know no one was very enthused by primary analysis before but oh well, you're getting more of it. This time for both.

I'll start with the GOP since it builds off my prior observations:

Trump underperforms yet again, and this time it's the worst yet to my eye. As I noted earlier in the topic, he was coming in at about 7 points under the expected result every time, but this time it's looking to be more like 16 points. (Polling had this 79-22, actual results looking like 68-27, so Trump+57 vs Trump+41)

But the other pattern I noted before where 538 kept nailing Trump's % in spite of the margin of victory being off also finally failed here. As you can see, he underperformed that by 11 points as well (79 to 68.) All in all, this seems like the biggest underperformance by Trump yet.

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And now, though I hesitate a bit to wade into this, the Dem primary because there's been a lot of chatter about it and the campaign for Uncommitted.

ATM (72% reporting): It's:
Biden - 81.4% (498k votes)
Uncommitted 12.7% (78k votes)

There was a lot of chatter from the groups organizing the campaigns to protest vote for Uncommitted in response the administrations actions re: Gaza. I saw a lot of media reporting their goal was 10,000 votes. I'm going to stop right here and say that that number was very much them managing expectations and picking a number they knew they would breeze past - even if they did absolutely nothing. In the Democratic primaries for 2020, 2016, 2012, and 2008 Uncommitted received at least 19,000 votes.So very obviously they were going to go way past 10,000 - it was never an honest benchmark.

So let's look at past MI Dem Primaries and how Uncommitted fared:

2008*: 31% (238k votes)
2012**: 10.7% (21k votes)
2016***: 1.8% (22k votes)
2020***: 1.2% (19k votes)

*Obama wasn't on the ballot because of primary drama where Michigan tried to jump the line, so obviously this isn't a great comparison point.

**MI used a caucus this time, god knows why. Not ideal, but for comparison's sake I'd say this is your best one since it was an incumbent Obama running essentially unchallenged.

***Contested primary: Sanders v Hillary/Biden depending on the year. Therefore also not great comparison points, while Uncommitted draws about the same number of raw votes, turnout was obviously much higher and you see the % that number of votes represents drops significantly.

So, while understanding it's not quite a perfect comparison point, 2012 Obama is as good as we're going to get for how we might expect Uncommitted to perform today - incumbent Dem president with no real challenge to speak of. And in that light, I feel like electorally this Uncommitted campaign was a dud. Yes, the raw number of Uncommitted votes is much higher this time around... but that's because turnout is way up and closer to the 2016/2020 turnout so looking at raw votes is extremely deceptive (think looking at character contests and seeing how AiAi got nearly 9,000 votes against Link in 2003 and then compare to 2018 Cloud vs Link getting 11,600 votes and going "oh shit AiAi could give Cloud a run!")

If 2012 tells us that we can expect Uncommitted to run about 11% in "normal" conditions against an incumbent then Uncommitted getting 12.7% right now in 2024 doesn't strike me as all that significant in terms of electoral impact. That's basically margin-of-error (and I'm pretty sure the Uncommitted number has been coming down a bit as results come in but idk how much of this is what areas are reporting in in what order.) Basically, we've got a high turnout primary and Biden is still doing what you'd expect a typical incumbent to do - if anything, I think that's electorally a sign of strength.

OTOH, from what I can tell, the media has bought the narrative of the Uncommitted campaign and their bogus targets of 10,000 votes hook, line, and sinker and as we speak the NYT is reporting these as Biden facing a Protest movement while Trump "coasted" past Haley when as far as my eyes see this that's basically the inverse of reality here. So, whether justified or not, I think the narrative of the Uncommitted Campaign is going to win tonight and... I don't know, that may not be the worst thing in the world if it leads to any change from the administration in regards to Gaza but in terms of what actually happened in Michigan I just don't see it as having been a success in putting any fear that Biden's electoral strength was diminished.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Any thoughts on these results?

oh i was writing up that big analysis post before you said that. well, you have my thoughts i guess

I enjoy detailed analysis that looks at past numbers for reference. Thanks!

Boeberts son Tyler was arrested. Facing 22 charges including 5 felonies. Clearly her and the sexual predator she was with have been absolute role models of parents.

Thorn posted...

OTOH, from what I can tell, the media has bought the narrative of the Uncommitted campaign and their bogus targets of 10,000 votes hook, line, and sinker and as we speak the NYT is reporting these as Biden facing a Protest movement while Trump "coasted" past Haley when as far as my eyes see this that's basically the inverse of reality here.

Shocking

swordz9 posted...

Boeberts son Tyler was arrested. Facing 22 charges including 5 felonies. Clearly her and the sexual predator she was with have been absolute role models of parents.

Shocker

Last I heard, the Republicans in Colorado weren't thrilled with her attempt at changing districts. If we're lucky they'll elect someone less insane.

So Biden is apparently doing better in the Democratic primaries than Trump is in the Republican primaries even though the latter party is effectively a Trump cult?

Boebert is done in politics, and I can only hope that she's burned too many bridges for even the right wing media circuit to offer her employment. With limited prospects to earn the living to which she's now probably accustomed, she might be the first national level politician to start an OF.

Not even joking, I wouldn't be surprised at all if she does it in like 18 months.

Now if only we could boot MTG.

Id say who would event want to see her OF, but Im sure several Republican senators would be paying

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Now if only we could boot MTG.

I wish, but MTG seems much more politically cunning and devious. I think she's even worse than Boebert, but at least Boebert is a complete moron and will soon be gone. I sadly think MTG will be around a while.

McConnell will be stepping down as Senate GOP leader after the 2024 elections.

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1762891522549096919

Too bad all the lasting damage he has done to the country will last for generations.

Thorn posted...

Too bad all the lasting damage he has done to the country will last for generations.

And the person who replaces him will be an even bigger piece of shit. But hopefully less effective.

Is him stepping down related to his health? Dude sure seemed to be having some health episodes

swordz9 posted...

Is him stepping down related to his health? Dude sure seemed to be having some health episodes

There's an NYT article covering it and while it mentions his various health episodes it makes it sound more like McConnell acknowledging that on national security and Ukraine in particular that the party has moved away from his position and towards Trump, leaving him out of step with the party at large.

He also cites the death of a close relative.

But I have to imagine his health plays a role - though while stepping down as leader he still intends to serve his term as Senator out (2026.)

the news keeps on coming

https://twitter.com/Meidas_LaurenA/status/1762889458226225490
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/28/nyregion/trump-bond-civil-fraud.html

At the NY Appeals Court just now, Trump's lawyers told the court that in order to pay the $454m judgment from the civil fraud case that Trump would have to start selling property. (i.e. he does not have the liquid assets to cover this. Previously he testified under oath that he had around $400m in cash on hand)

Instead, they're offering a $100m bond and want that to be good enough to pause the collection of judgment. In response, the NY AG's office said "fuck that."

Im sure the Saudis would buy Trump Tower or something considering all the money they threw at Kushner

swordz9 posted...

Id say who would event want to see her OF, but Im sure several Republican senators would be paying

I mean Id like to see it, but Im not giving her a dime.

Thorn posted...

the news keeps on coming

https://twitter.com/Meidas_LaurenA/status/1762889458226225490
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/28/nyregion/trump-bond-civil-fraud.html

At the NY Appeals Court just now, Trump's lawyers told the court that in order to pay the $454m judgment from the civil fraud case that Trump would have to start selling property. (i.e. he does not have the liquid assets to cover this. Previously he testified under oath that he had around $400m in cash on hand)

Instead, they're offering a $100m bond and want that to be good enough to pause the collection of judgment. In response, the NY AG's office said "fuck that."

What even is a bond in a civil case? In a criminal one its basically collateral that youll show back up to court, but I guess I just dont know what its for if hes already free without having paid.

Some quick googling seems to say that it's there to guard against frivolous appeals in order to just stall and buy time without paying the judgment (i.e. what Trump is trying to do)

Seanchan posted...

On a lighter note:
https://wtop.com/lifestyle/2024/02/burger-chain-wendys-looking-to-test-surge-pricing-at-restaurants-as-early-as-next-year/

Yet another reason to stop eating out. "Oooh we're real busy right now so that burger is gonna cost you $2 more!"

Just like Batman.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/28/politics/trump-supreme-court-immunity/index.html

The court agreed to expedite the case and hear arguments the week of April 22.

"expedite"

still 8 damn weeks away.

Oh, so I guess SCOTUS is going to help him stall and try to evade justice by dragging this out after all. That court is beyond redemption in its corruption.

I am honestly terrified that this supreme court will actually give him immunity.

If they do Biden has immunity to send Trump to the guillotine or whatever else he wants

even if they don't give him immunity (and how can they?) they are giving him 2 free months and an excuse to protest something else if it fails.

swordz9 posted...

If they do Biden has immunity to send Trump to the guillotine or whatever else he wants

We both know Biden won't do anything crazy with it. Which is why they might feel comfortable doing it.

But man will it open horrible doors for Trump or future less scrupulous presidents.

The stalling is the whole point. They're not gonna give him total immunity (they might grant immunity for the stuff he's currently accused of, without setting any future precedent, though)

Maniac64 posted...

We both know Biden won't do anything crazy with it. Which is why they might feel comfortable doing it.

But man will it open horrible doors for Trump or future less scrupulous presidents.

Given what Trump and the Putinclans want Id argue its Bidens highest responsibility to defend America if they just say Trump has full blown immunity. Dont have high hopes for this cesspool of a country anymore though really

Forceful_Dragon posted...

even if they don't give him immunity (and how can they?) they are giving him 2 free months and an excuse to protest something else if it fails.

Yeah, it's clear as day that the Supreme Court is just as politicized as any other powerful governmental body in the country. If Trump wins, I wouldn't be surprised if Thomas (hell, maybe Alito too since he's just a couple years younger) "graciously" retires so he can be replaced by a younger crazy.

Fucking Ginsburg for clinging on until she was 100 years old and then being hailed as a hero.

Cant blame her when theres actual evil people to blame instead tbh

Fair enough, especially since it would have been difficult for her to foresee all of this happening back in like 2015. Just frustrating af.

Basically, the way the schedule is now - whether or not this trial can be held before the election basically comes down to whether SCOTUS rules quickly or not. And why the fuck would we expect them to move quickly now when they've dragged their feet at every step they've been involved with here? Hell, Jack Smith asked them to decide this last year because everyone fucking knew it was going to end up before them and they went, "Nah. Let the DC Circuit hear it" and when the DC Circuit heard it and came back with a unanimous "Trump's immunity shit is fucking batshit" SCOTUS then took its time to go, "You know what? We'll hear this. But not now. Come see us in 2 months."

So, the clock on the DC Case has been paused this whole time, but under its previous schedule, there was basically a 3 month period allotted for preparation before the trial would start. Once SCOTUS rules the clock would finally unpause but that prep period would still be there. Maybe the judge could decide to modify that period (god knows she'd have every reasonable cause to) but I wouldn't expect it and so basically you have 3 months of prep + ~2 months of the actual trial and that means even once SCOTUS rules you basically have to budget 5 months of time for the trial itself.

So, SCOTUS would have to quickly turn around and issue a ruling by basically mid-May to keep things on track to happen before the election. ...But again, why would they? Far too easy for them to wait until like late June for the end of the SCOTUS term, go, "oh, sorry, presidents aren't immune teehee" but the timing of that ruling making it nigh-impossible for the trial to be held before Election Day - leaving open the possibility of Trump winning, purging DOJ, and dismissing the charges.

Like it's the most fucking blatant, partisan corruption that I've been feeling pretty sick since the news.

We all know Trump is gonna get away with it. Its just different degrees of how much.

Illinois just disqualified Trump from the ballots

swordz9 posted...

Illinois just disqualified Trump from the ballots

Oh shit and he was gonna win Illinois too

swordz9 posted...

Cant blame her when theres actual evil people to blame instead tbh

Her initial cancer diagnosis was 2009. We can blame her a little.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

even if they don't give him immunity (and how can they?)

I think there's a very good chance they give him immunity just based on the math of the court. Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett are Trump appointees and Clarence Thomas is Clarence Thomas, so really it just comes down to Roberts and Alito. I think Roberts probably sides with the liberals on this but I can't even be sure of that, and I'd give better than even odds Alito votes for immunity, even if it's in a very limited "Trump has immunity but no other president does or will and this does not set precedent" kind of way.

good news: the idf allowed aid to palestinians

bad news: instead of actually giving them the food they opened fire on the crowd, rammed and ran over people, killed 100 and injured 700

The even worse news is the world will continue to let them do that shit still anyways because we suck

Oh yeah when you want the truth just look to Nanis lol

PerfectChaosZ posted...

Oh yeah when you want the truth just look to Nanis lol

I don't have the truth either

Who?

For the record, I'm very specific when I post in here to denounce the IDF and not Israel in general.