Board 8 > CYOF Mafia Day 3

(+) Yeah! (+)

Let's get it.

Anyway

I implore you

SBell
Corrik
FD
MZero

And whoever is town (if any) of Sir Chris, Wallz, and Sultan

This game is quickly becoming idle central. Do not allow scum to lynch me for trying to solve the game again and being ridiculous again. Yes you can blame me but at some point some of the blame falls on you for continuing to mislynch me late game for playing the same way I always do.

Help me figure out which two of the three it is out of those guys it is (or if it's all 3 just agree to consolidate on someone)

And let's get it.

At the moment

My lynch preference is

Chris >= Wallz >> Sultan.

Ultimately I can't reconcile why Chris who has an extra kill doesn't immediately jump to Sultan being scum yesterday after he suspected him day 1 and encourage Lea to shoot Sultan.

Like to me it seems like he'd want to claim "I kill I don't think town has that many extra kills"

Perhaps Chris is scum extra kill that only unlocks when 2 scum have fallen.

Been traveling all day,

Some suspicion over lopen seemingly throwing shit at the wall.

Though I have been pinging about Wallz all game long

In the end the reason I'd rather vote Chris is

If Chris DOESN'T flip GF it makes Wallz look a lot better

It's either 2/3 of them or all of them, but Chris's flip allows us to solve Wallz vs Sultan pretty easily

Sultan also feels a lot more in character to suspect me than Chris

Sultan is always paranoid of me
Chris tends to say "Lopen is Lopening:

##Vote: Chris

No more posts from me for a good while

Please try to solve the game so I'm not just talking to myself

Lopen posted...

In the end the reason I'd rather vote Chris is

If Chris DOESN'T flip GF it makes Wallz look a lot better

It's either 2/3 of them or all of them, but Chris's flip allows us to solve Wallz vs Sultan pretty easily

Am I missing something? When did Chris scan Town?? Or am exhausted and being an idiot lol

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Am I missing something? When did Chris scan Town?? Or am exhausted and being an idiot lol

When I revealed I scanned Chris scum Wallz immediately began role fishing and trying to figure out how I knew he was scum.

It didn't seem town at all and the natural conclusion I reached was that Chris was GF so he was using that to discern if I was bluffing.

Further he started day 2 immediately attacking me which feels like he was running interference from me claiming my scan on Chris because even as a bluff it would be dangerous.

On the flip side

If Chris is just a guilty scanning scum it makes Wallz look better as I feel scum would have more reason to believe me and kill me n1 if they had reason to believe it was a legitimate scan

Lopen posted...

When I revealed I scanned Chris scum Wallz immediately began role fishing and trying to figure out how I knew he was scum.

It didn't seem town at all and the natural conclusion I reached was that Chris was GF so he was using that to discern if I was bluffing.

Further he started day 2 immediately attacking me which feels like he was running interference from me claiming my scan on Chris because even as a bluff it would be dangerous.

If he was godfather, he wouldn't need to discern if you were bluffing.

Corrik7 posted...

If he was godfather, he wouldn't need to discern if you were bluffing.

He would

I just said Chris was scum. I could have figured that out via something like MZero's ridiculous "I saw the whole flavor" scan or detective or whatever else.

Lopen posted...

When I revealed I scanned Chris scum Wallz immediately began role fishing and trying to figure out how I knew he was scum.

It didn't seem town at all and the natural conclusion I reached was that Chris was GF so he was using that to discern if I was bluffing.

Further he started day 2 immediately attacking me which feels like he was running interference from me claiming my scan on Chris because even as a bluff it would be dangerous.

But if wallz is town this makes no sense to lynch Chris before Wallz

Where the heck has FD been

I mean he was hella active last game as scum so Im not trying to draw conclusions where I shouldnt, but he has barely been around, barely asking questions, barely posting spreadsheets, none of that stuff. Whether its alignment indicative or not its certainly weird

Not to mention acting like he couldnt be in character during all the build up to using his ability for the first time. Its hard to even try getting a read on people who arent here

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

But if wallz is town this makes no sense to lynch Chris before Wallz

What? If Wallz is town we don't want to lynch him at all?

It could be Chris + FD (+ ???)

Chris having zero interest in pursuing FD and instead lateraling to me is also weird considering he was saying Lea shooting him was a solid pick yesterday

At this point I pretty much only want to lynch Chris though. Him going for the lynch on me just doesn't fit his game up through this point. If we want to consider whether it's FD we can do that after Chris flips.

wallmasterz posted...

Where the heck has FD been

I was on a lot yesterday when day started.

I have been busy at work all day today because it's tax season and I work for the IRS. Being able to post during my shift is a nice bonus when possible, but it's by no means a guarantee.

Also I didn't deny being 4th alignment? The hell I didn't.

My response is that scum must surely kill me to stop me from using my power to get them lynched with fewer total votals, and that once I'm dead at scums hands everyone will see me having flipped town.

In what world is "my body will flip town" not a denial? .

If scum is instead going to keep me around to try and throw sus on me for still being alive (which still wouldn't make sense if they thought I was 3rd/4th/5th party) then I'll just do my best to make sure they go down and we still get 48 hours days.

Lopen posted...

What? If Wallz is town we don't want to lynch him at all?

Sounds like you only think Chris is scum cuz wallz reaching

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Sounds like you only think Chris is scum cuz wallz reaching

Not at all

Chris has a lot of strikes against him. His suspicion list has low key been everywhere. Day 1 he was tunneling you, day 2 he abandoned you and didn't bat an eyelash when you had a killing ability when he apparently also has one. Day 2 he was saying kill FD, when I suggest to do it day 3 he says I'm scum. He also spent the first bit of the game basically using roleplaying as a crutch to do nothing useful-- and frankly I can't see why scum would kill Lea over him if Chris himself wasn't scum.

Lynching Chris first over wall is mostly used to help solve wall. If Chris just flips scum scanning scum we can mostly clear wall. I think they're both scum BUT Chris + you or Chris + FD is kind of a possibility too.

4 vs 11

4 vs 10 after mislynch

Assume scare kills someone instead of dying
Assume scum successfully night kills someone else

4 vs 8 after night 1

Assume sultan's gun shows up and misfires again
Assume mislynch on day 2

4 vs 6 after day 2

Assume scum kills
Assume Chris shot misfires
Assume scare decides to gamble again (pocket aces maybe?) and wins again.

There is enough killing to more than end the game after 2 mislynches and 2 night phases.

If ALL the extra killing is scum then that would feel pretty unfair because it would almost never hit scum.

Scare's ek is balanced by being a gamble
Sultan's ek has to be given to someone else, possible restricted to not scummate if hes scum.
We still don't know what circumstances put a gun in Chris's hand but he seemed to say he did not have the option to kill on night 1.

My conclusions are that it might have been 3vs12 to prevent scare from running away with the game with strong RNG and to give Ulti more time to knock out his list before mylo.

And if there is a 3rd party I'd call it Chris?

Forceful_Dragon posted...

We still don't know what circumstances put a gun in Chris's hand but he seemed to say he did not have the option to kill on night 1.

I think Chris is a scum extra kill that only works if 2+ scum are dead.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

My conclusions are that it might have been 3vs12 to prevent scare from running away with the game with strong RNG and to give Ulti more time to knock out his list before mylo.

I could see this actually. Ulti apparently not having any bus targets on his list would fit that scenario a lot better too.

That being said

I think 3 scum with Scare being able to kill himself seems really rough for scum

It is probably 4 scum with the excess of killing roles being tempered by Ulti and Scare's suiciding at mylo if the conditions aren't met

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Also I didn't deny being 4th alignment? The hell I didn't.

My response is that scum must surely kill me to stop me from using my power to get them lynched with fewer total votals, and that once I'm dead at scums hands everyone will see me having flipped town.

If you are town why wouldnt scum keep you alive if you suspected town? They could leverage your power for mislynches then turn around and blame it on you.

Right the fact that both of them had their own conditions to implode is a good argument in favor of 4.

I guess what I'd want to do not is find out what sort of ability MZero will be using if he's not forced to make himself unlynchable (as he claimed he was able to do). And barring that I'd like to force himself to make himself unlynchable to at least confirm it's a power he possesses.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Also I didn't deny being 4th alignment? The hell I didn't.

My response is that scum must surely kill me to stop me from using my power to get them lynched with fewer total votals, and that once I'm dead at scums hands everyone will see me having flipped town.

In what world is "my body will flip town" not a denial? .

Ulti seemed to imply you'd scan as 4th alignment which you specifically did not deny

You said you're town but how I read it is you were miller(ish), not outright denying how you're scanned

wallmasterz posted...

If you are town why wouldnt scum keep you alive if you suspected town? They could leverage your power for mislynches then turn around and blame it on you.

Well I don't think I was suspected at all (since my power doesn't really fit scum and actually causes mylo to be day earlier than expected if I were) but then ulti made that desperate attempt to disparage, which apparently Lopen loved.

I am not calling you scum here but such a role could easily have the caveat of not working at mylo. It doesnt clear you

Lopen posted...

You said you're town but how I read it is you were miller(ish), not outright denying how you're scanned

Why on earth would you assume someone is saying they are millerish or scan guilty based upon them saying they are town? Sounds like a you problem versus a problem with anything I said.

You seem to be of the impression that scum actually scanned me (and with who/what?) whereas I was only of the impression that a caught ulti was going down with a salvo of bullshit.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

You seem to be of the impression that scum actually scanned me (and with who/what?) whereas I was only of the impression that a caught ulti was going down with a salvo of bullshit.

Incorrect. I'm saying if scum did scan you that wouldn't make any sense because scum having an alignment detecting role doesn't make sense so them actually having scanned to get that info made a lot less sense than Ulti just knowing you're GF or something.

My issue was more that I thought you were not denying Ulti was telling the truth about how you scan-- so you're saying there's nothing in your role that you're aware of that implies you scan as anything other than your proper alignment, right?

Lopen posted...

so you're saying there's nothing in your role that you're aware of that implies you scan as anything other than your proper alignment, right?

Correct. As far as I am aware a cop scan would return a result of 'innocent' and something like the role PM scan mzero described would indicate that I am town.

Good enough for me

Now ISO Sir Chris and realize I'm right and let's win

FD have you said who you think is scum?

Yes I have

Have you, wallz?

Like I know you think it's me but I have no idea who your other suspects are and who is even in your town pile. I actually know at least two of FD's suspects

Can everyone give their top Scum choices and town reads?

This is me right now

Scum
Chris
Wallz
Sultan

Town
Mzero
Corrik
Sbell

??? (Leaning town)
FD

I think I'm pretty set in this btw.

Like if I start conspiracy braining into my town pile just lynch me right away.

I honestly think Chris is slam dunk scum and then depending what he flips you fork into Sultan or Wallz depending on whether he flips GF or not

Lopen posted...

I think I'm pretty set in this btw.

Like if I start conspiracy braining into my town pile just lynch me right away.

There are two people in your town pile who you said you previously would be lynching today at the exclusion of any others.

Wondering if you knew that.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

There are two people in your town pile who you said you previously would be lynching today at the exclusion of any others.

Wondering if you knew that.

I do but now I've digested the flips and stuff

Really you just need to talk me through why people being scum doesn't make sense with logic that isn't "but why would they bus???"

Like you can say "oh why is mzero in your town pile" but no one actually made a very compelling case other than "why would scum bus" I basically had to dig it up myself

(Sbell was only scum because of Mzero read-- doesn't actually count)

Note you and Sultan have both given some merit to lynching mzero btw. As did Lea. You're not all scum so don't act like it's absurd to the point where you'd have to he scum to consider it.

Unlike a lot of people in this game I show my work

I can walk you through the full evolution of my suspicions and it's largely all there for you to read

Compare to Sir Chris who has gone

Lopen scum -> Lopen bad town -> Lopen scum
Sultan lock scum I tunnel him for 30 hours -> Sultan is ignored even when he claims an ability -> Sultan still ignored
FD might be a good shot for vig -> I'm going to lynch Lopen instead of considering FD might be scum

Or Wallz who has gone I tunnel Lopen all game -> actually Lopen might be town it's Kirby -> no wate it's Lopen again

I have played like crap this game especially if Lopen isnt scum.

I keep changing my mind about who else it might be but I am guessing FD right now.

Wallz is like willfully avoiding trying to do anything that isn't getting me lynched pretty much

Lopen if youre scum youre playing well. Unfortunately your recent vibes dont fully alleviate my heartburn because you were playing very well in holiday mafia and were not suspected until you were literally mathematically eliminated from winning then you outed yourself.

Mzero I think is almost definitely town. if hes scum were screwed.

Sbell is probably town but I find it really weird he commented multiple times on me suspecting Lopen given how little else he has commented on, but I still wouldnt think twice about sbell unless Lopen flipped scum.

Sultan was pinging me early but looking back on things I do slightly lean town now.

FD, probably scum. Just been way too reserved.

Chris and Corrik, inconclusive but I bet the last scum is here if its not Lopen.

Like he can't give any town reads

Can't give a third scum in case he's wrong. Can scarcely even give a second scum.

I think the problem wallz is having is that my reads have been for the most part good so he's finding precious little people for me to get steered into so he has to just grit his teeth and call me scum and hope no one notices he's not actually playing the game.

Of course he posts reads now as I make that post. That poe actually looks decent if you throw me out.

Let's talk about Corrik. Why do you think Ulti would not bus Corrik if he's scum? Can you give a reason for that? Do you think Ulti is above bussing?

Lopen posted...

Wallz is like willfully avoiding trying to do anything that isn't getting me lynched pretty much

Obviously this fact means nothing to every other townie until you see my flip but if I were scum I wouldnt be hellbent on a specific lynch for the entire game

I think its you and FD. So with that in mind I would also lynch FD.

Lopen posted...

Of course he posts reads now as I make that post. That poe actually looks decent if you throw me out.

Let's talk about Corrik. Why do you think Ulti would not bus Corrik if he's scum? Can you give a reason for that? Do you think Ulti is above bussing?

From my understanding Ulti mixes it up with the bussing. Hes not above it obviously but he doesnt do it consistently. So we cant clear someone just because scum ulti didnt pretend to suspect them