Current Events > So tell me, why did a Republican who won by like 30 points last time lose by 25

(+) Yeah! (+)

This time. In deep red ALABAMA. WHY isn't any of the narratives or the polls not coming -EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE - to reflecting results like this?

probably because the republicans tried to ban IVF

Because shut the fuck up.

It's the first time in our lifetime that rights have actively been taken away from the populace, and this one is bodily autonomy. There will continue to be surprising elections that polling will miss because polling misses the point more often than not.

We've already seen in previous elections how the Dobbs decision led to Republican led states enshrining abortion rights in their state cons. thanks to Republican voters as well as victories in purple states like VA where the GOP was hoping to flip the House and keep the Senate, and instead they lost all 3 branches because people are pissed off.

luigi33 posted...

This time. In deep red ALABAMA. WHY isn't any of the narratives or the polls not coming -EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE - to reflecting results like this?

That's easy. The narratives are set by the mainstream media, and mainstream media ownership wants Trump and the Republicans to win.

Hopefully it means people are finally realizing Republicans are awful for this country

MC_BatCommander posted...

Hopefully it means people are finally realizing Republicans are awful for this country

Nah we're cooked. Trump has sycophants that think gays eat children and harvest adrenochrome and want to hang leftists for simply existing.

Until a lot of old R's kick the bucket, we're cooked. Trump is here to stay.

People at long last know the truth. The Dems where not fear mongering. The Repubs are coming for your rights.

Cemith posted...

Nah we're cooked. Trump has sycophants that think gays eat children and harvest adrenochrome and want to hang leftists for simply existing.

Until a lot of old R's kick the bucket, we're cooked. Trump is here to stay.

Let's not be defeatist. Trump lost in 2020, and it's difficult to see how Republicans have grown their base or appealed more to swing voters since then.

MC_BatCommander posted...

Hopefully it means people are finally realizing Republicans are awful for this country

The general electorate seems to have woken up to the active threat of the GOP and the Dem base is most motivated to vote against Trump and the recent loss of rights, as well as the GOP's promise to take more.

I think something that benefited the GOP the 49 years they worked towards overturning Roe is that it lulled the populace into thinking they were "all talk" or "never going to do it", and then it happened and people realized "oh, no, these people are actually as terrible as they say they are".

There were a lot of people on the Politics board who expressed the "never thought they were serious/would actually do it" opinion once Dobbs happened and red states went super Christo-fascist in legislation regarding abortion. It was big of them to admit they were wrong, however as a former Republican myself I always knew the right-wing was serious about securing the courts as a long-term strategy in order shape the laws of the land. I just wish more Dem voters would have understood that threat in 2016.

GOP did the one thing they weren't supposed to do.

Fulfill a campaign promise.

Now many people are rightly pissed

wackyteen posted...

GOP did the one thing they weren't supposed to do.

Fulfill a campaign promise.

Now many people are rightly pissed

I'm really hoping to read an obituary of the GOP as a national party in a few years that starts with "The dog caught the car, and that's why the party died".

For the longest time democrats use to think abortion and woman's rights was a losing issue in red states and didn't try running in it. Now they are starting to realize it's a winning issue after all.

Shut the fuck up

creativerealms posted...

For the longest time democrats use to think abortion and woman's rights was a losing issue in red states and didn't try running in it. Now they are starting to realize it's a winning issue after all.

It probably was a losing issue pre-Dobbs. Most people can only learn stuff the hard way.

Could by a myriad of things. I don't know what the district changes were between elections, what the turnout was, and so on.

I'm not trying to dismiss what happened here, it's still awesome, but I think there's more than a single explanation.

Cemith posted...

Nah we're cooked. Trump has sycophants that think gays eat children and harvest adrenochrome and want to hang leftists for simply existing.

Until a lot of old R's kick the bucket, we're cooked. Trump is here to stay.

That's the thing though they are the minority and Republicans are getting more and more toxic to independents. The sycophants are not growing in number.

creativerealms posted...

That's the thing though they are the minority and Republicans are getting more and more toxic to independents. The sycophants are not growing in number.

EPR-radar posted...

Let's not be defeatist. Trump lost in 2020, and it's difficult to see how Republicans have grown their base or appealed more to swing voters since then.

See though, here's the thing. It may not be growing anymore, but it certainly isn't shrinking. We have just as many insane people now as we did in 2020.

I hope I'm wrong, I really do. But ask me to put faith into my fellow man, it just won't happen.

Cemith posted...

See though, here's the thing. It may not be growing anymore, but it certainly isn't shrinking. We have just as many insane people now as we did in 2020.

I hope I'm wrong, I really do. But ask me to put faith into my fellow man, it just won't happen.

You are right they are not shrinking and I get the fear. I see it as a double edged sword, the crazier they get the more they turn off people. Trump and MAGA are getting crazier, more unhinged. The best thing the Biden campaign can do is run on that and use it to be the saner option.

ClayGuida posted...

Could by a myriad of things. I don't know what the district changes were between elections, what the turnout was, and so on.

I'm not trying to dismiss what happened here, it's still awesome, but I think there's more than a single explanation.

Lands primarily campaigned on reproductive rights and pro-IVF, she talked about how the #1 issue overwhelmingly she heard about from people she talked to was about reproductive rights.

It's a very common theme I've heard from Dem state/federal candidates in purple/red states as well.

There is also something I've noticed of many districts with people talking about not having either Dem candidates or no candidates at all talking to them about their opinions. This comes from various grassroots organizations, sometimes with state Dems coordinating, expanding presence in states such as Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia to name a few. I wish I could remember his name, I believe he plans on running against Blankenship in WV, was talking about how he talked to someone in a very rural Republican district at the end of the road who told him that even though they disagreed on every policy the man said he'd be voting for him because he was the first person to actually ask him.

It's anecdotal, however it is from people doing the legwork or who are candidates that end up winning their elections, who often give so much feedback on people saying how much it means to them that someone even came and talked to them.

No Dem presence in states they'd given up on as a party could be something that has legitimately been holding the party back.

creativerealms posted...

You are right they are not shrinking and I get the fear. I see it as a double edged sword, the crazier they get the more they turn off people. Trump and MAGA are getting crazier, more unhinged. The best thing the Biden campaign can do is run on that and use it to be the saner option.

The fact that there are still fence sitters somehow is insane to me. How much do people live under a rock?

Kradek posted...

I believe he plans on running against Blankenship in WV, was talking about how he talked to someone in a very rural Republican district at the end of the road who told him that even though they disagreed on every policy the man said he'd be voting for him because he was the first person to actually ask him.

Beto is the only Texas candidate to ever visit every county in the state, which is a fuck ton. He still got smoked in every election.

This whole 'reach out' to people is pretty stupid imo. Yes it's important to a point and to build a following, base, or whatever, but I don't believe it'll win over as many voters as say the next 10 Democratic candidates doing it as well.

Listening to a person speak 1 time and then never again isn't how you win these people over. Trump visits the same states over and over and over. Now he's not visiting every county of every state, but he does visit Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania extremely often. He's not just visiting swing states, he's visiting easy red states. Now granted that could be because of the primaries, but while I do think Dems need to stop allowing Republicans to run unopposed, but they also need to start having every candidate meet with every possible constituent and then their successor do the same, and so on.

Meeting these people often is key and Dems are basically punting because of 'costs'.

Small tangent I know, but my mind kind of fixated on Beto being a fucking failure and then his successor being even worse and how it's annoying that Dems are refusing to run in certain Republican strongholds.

Losing by 40 is better than losing because you chose not to enter.

Because a lot of republicans dont vote and are under the impression that their chosen candidate will win by a country mile.

everyone thinks the silent majority's on their side until push comes to shove

ClayGuida posted...

Beto is the only Texas candidate to ever visit every county in the state, which is a fuck ton. He still got smoked in every election.

This whole 'reach out' to people is pretty stupid imo. Yes it's important to a point and to build a following, base, or whatever, but I don't believe it'll win over as many voters as say the next 10 Democratic candidates doing it as well.

Listening to a person speak 1 time and then never again isn't how you win these people over. Trump visits the same states over and over and over. Now he's not visiting every county of every state, but he does visit Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania extremely often. He's not just visiting swing states, he's visiting easy red states. Now granted that could be because of the primaries, but while I do think Dems need to stop allowing Republicans to run unopposed, but they also need to start having every candidate meet with every possible constituent and then their successor do the same, and so on.

Meeting these people often is key and Dems are basically punting because of 'costs'.

Small tangent I know, but my mind kind of fixated on Beto being a fucking failure and then his successor being even worse and how it's annoying that Dems are refusing to run in certain Republican strongholds.

Losing by 40 is better than losing because you chose not to enter.

For the record, Beto lost by 2.7% to a Republican incumbent who won their first election as a nobody by 15%. That's the closest any Dem has come to winning the Senatorial seat in a very long time. It's weird to use him as a failure or what not to do when no one else has come as close as him to unseating a Republican incumbent.

What is he showed is that the the right idea, he just needed a better campaign overall.

Obama is also famous for his "50 state strategy", where he intentionally visited every state regardless of how much of a Republican stronghold they are, a strategy I've heard various political strategists laud.

The overall point of my post is you find out what people actually care about by actually talking to them and especially in competitive districts within red or purple states the Dem party has ignored that. The Republican party also ignores their populace because we know they just don't care, so that opens potential for converted voters.

Also running candidates even in districts where Dems aren't expected to win can still help down ballot.

As mentioned the Dems are running candidates in 119 of 120 seats in NC. Trump only won that state by 77k, the prediction is that the increased incentive in bringing out Dem voters could flip the state.

Polls are basically worthless, and most of the elections in recent years have gone a long way to prove that.

So, anyone living or dying by them seem a bit silly at this point.

EPR-radar posted...

That's easy. The narratives are set by the mainstream media, and mainstream media ownership wants Trump and the Republicans to win.

If by "mainstream media" you mean "Fox News, Newsmax, and OAN", then you're 100% correct.

Many people, here included, were so sure that abortion would never get banned. "They can't ban it because they need it to dangle the carrot on a stick! Without the carrot to dangle they can't get votes!"

Well they were half right, I guess.