Current Events > Looks like its gonna come down to 7 states to decide if Trump wins or not

(+) Yeah! (+)

MI is going to be a real toss up. Trump could say he supports total elimination of Arabs in Israel and a bunch of lefties would still say that Biden needs to "earn their vote".

lilORANG posted...

Trump couldn't win with incumbent advantage. I have a hard time believing he'll win now when things are objectively better under Biden.

This.

I don't believe any of these polls.

Still, each of you absolutely needs to vote. Make sure others do the same.

I wish you good luck from Switzerland.

I think what it will come down to is the economy. The economy is terrible right now-- inflation has been going up and the media refuses to call it a recession because the stock market is doing well for rich people.

Regardless of reasons why, the economy was doing better under Trump until Covid hit. That will swing some votes away from Biden.

But how things change over the next 6 months could make the election move in either direction so I think it's reasonable to be worried but not yet panic time.

SauI_Goodman posted...

I really don't see him winning nevada lol

NV hasn't gone red since 2004.

wanderingshade posted...

MI is going to be a real toss up.

lol no, it isn't. You can take MI to the bank going Blue.

garan posted...

I think what it will come down to is the economy. The economy is terrible right now-- inflation has been going up and the media refuses to call it a recession because the stock market is doing well for rich people.

Literally none of this is true nor how any of this works.

Christ, I miss 261. CE ain't built for political takes.

wanderingshade posted...

MI is going to be a real toss up. Trump could say he supports total elimination of Arabs in Israel and a bunch of lefties would still say that Biden needs to "earn their vote".

Biden is lucky Trump is so bad with middle-easterners as Biden would have no shot otherwise.

garan posted...

I think what it will come down to is the economy. The economy is terrible right now-- inflation has been going up and the media refuses to call it a recession because the stock market is doing well for rich people.

Regardless of reasons why, the economy was doing better under Trump until Covid hit. That will swing some votes away from Biden.

But how things change over the next 6 months could make the election move in either direction so I think it's reasonable to be worried but not yet panic time.

Yeah ummmm its called riding the coattails of the previous administration, its pretty amazing how a lot of people dont see that..oh not to mention the mess Trumps years created.

wanderingshade posted...

MI is going to be a real toss up. Trump could say he supports total elimination of Arabs in Israel and a bunch of lefties would still say that Biden needs to "earn their vote".

Those people would just not vote at all though and in Michigan, the common axiom of every vote not cast for Biden is a vote for Trump might not apply the way it would somewhere like Pennsylvania or Georgia.

Is suspect NV to be Blue, AZ Red this year.
The rest, I have no clue

It always does, which is why it's laughably stupid when the pro-electoral college people talk about how presidents will only got to a few states if things are decided by popular vote.

CervusCanadensi posted...

Is suspect NV to be Blue, AZ Red this year.
The rest, I have no clue

Sinema's Senate seat being up for grabs this year helps Dems actually. Gallego is running against Lake who is batshit insane which is going to drive away moderates which will hurt fat fuck.

Heineken14 posted...

It always does, which is why it's laughably stupid when the pro-electoral college people talk about how presidents will only got to a few states if things are decided by popular vote.

Yep. Without the EC, suddenly, every vote in play. All the Blue votes in TX and Red votes in CA that don't normally matter are suddenly important. You gotta campaign and message everywhere.

As it stands, there's only a handful of states candidates need to put any real effort in.

No one is visit a state like North Dakota either way.

I keep telling ya

Texas is gonna go blue

solosnake posted...

Its probably easy to feel like Trump has no chance if you live in a liberal area where its obvious to everyone how awful trump is. The fact is there are huges swaths of the country that literally worship the man, theyve gotten even more radical and fanatical since the last election

I live in Chicago but

Ballot proposal (Illinois) for a graduated income tax instead of the straight percentage failed

Ballot proposal (Chicago) for a reduced real estate sales tax on the first million failed

Vallas came so close to beating Johnson for mayor

We had Rauner for governor for 4 years

Conclusion

People get sidelined just before they vote. The vote against the proposal reducing everybody's real estate tax and reducing everybody's state tax is concerning because people are voting for the interests of the wealthy - which they want to be - over the interests of who they are.

Kradek posted...

Same, I'm also cautiously optimistic that FL is within sight not just for POTUS, however also Scott's senatorial seat.

I can't have hope for FL, it has signaled in every way that it is lost. On paper, all those reasons SHOULD make sense (and recent polls showing FL people are actually tired of DeSantis' "woke battle"), but this is also the state that voted for a failure like Ronnie in huge waves, and has shifted hard-right on the Trump Kool-Aid. It doesn't help the Democratic Party in FL could be the weakest and most inept in the country.

I expect the blue votes to make gains, but I dare not think it will flip.

Texas keeps inching closer, but the issue is, Texans, Dems included, don't vote. It's been amount the worst state for turnout since at least the 70's. Add in the insane voter suppression methods, and...well, yeah. TX should have flipped a decade ago, but here we are.

I do believe Cruz is in serious risk of losing his seat, that said.,

Theyre both good candidates, everything will be fine

sauceje posted...

this kind of mentality leads to people assuming they don't need to go do their part and vote. go out and vote, please.

This, don't care if they say Biden has a 100 percent chance of winning that doesn't mean not to vote. VOTE!

CyborgSage00x0 posted...

They aren't. Like WI, 2016 was an anomaly. MI especially has swung hard left since then, as already stated in this topic, with the GOP there out of money and in a constant state of strife and infighting.

Swing states actually have to, you know, swing. Not randomly go the other way once in 24 years. Regardless, there's every indication that all 3 are easy blue this year. The GQP is lagging behind money, burning cash for Trump's legal troubles, and are having to waste resources trying to reclaim AZ and GA.

Whether they've been swing states in the past or not doesn't mean they aren't currently swing states. I wish I shared your optimism about them being "easy blue" this year...

UndefeatedGOAT posted...

Theyre both good candidates, everything will be fine

In what way is trump a good candidate?

Will_VIIII posted...

In what way is trump a good candidate?

Pretty sure comment is sarcasm. I took it seriously for a few seconds then chuckled.

CobraGT posted...

Pretty sure comment is sarcasm. I took it seriously for a few seconds then chuckled.

Nah, UndefeatedGOAT is an unabashed Trumper, the only surprising part is that he said Biden is a good candidate as well, which perplexed me for a moment, however probably an effort to besmirch his name by having someone like them say something positive.

Basically like, if an evil person is complimenting you, people are gonna wonder why.

Should be 0.

UndefeatedGOAT posted...

Theyre both good candidates, everything will be fine

https://youtu.be/BrOH-KHxXg0?si=8kA757vrGzq8XHRw

BlueKat posted...

Whether they've been swing states in the past or not doesn't mean they aren't currently swing states. I wish I shared your optimism about them being "easy blue" this year...

That's what the term means, though: you have to have a voting history to determine if a state swings or not. NM and CO and OH are good examples of ones that were, but are no longer. It's pretty clear from past and current history that WI isn't a true swing state, and what happened in 2016 was an anomaly. That, and now that the gerrymandering has been broken in the state, it's about to experience a hard shift left internally that will affect it for years to come.

I wouldn't even call AZ and GA swing states this year..."battleground", maybe, since them going blue in 2020 was a surprise, and it's unclear if this is a culture shift, or just a reaction to Trump. With yesterday's awful abortion ruling, it feels safer Blue this year, at least.