Board 8 > Community Mafia Topic 15 - Long Form Narrative Improv (Mandatory)

(+) Yeah! (+)

I suppose you can say something about him still voting Ctes at this stage.

I am extremely confident that scum has no path to victory without lynching me.

So death's insistence that I'm on any possible scum pairings gives me a lot of pause when I had started thinking he's town over ctes

Oh trust me if I thought my scumteam pairings were good logic I would have voted you already.

They arent even useful to anyone besides me since I am the only one that knows to exclude me from scumpairings.

I've also been trying around with red as town configurations in my head and having Ben as the third scum over him. If I go that route we're back to too many vanilla and I have to switch out ctes for death to fix that.

But also in this world ulti probably is legit so then I have to flip everything I've been thinking around and ugh

I am having paranoia of ulti voting red after being on me hard. It's making me consider red as town and Ulti trying to set up two mismatches either way.

But then I get into a cyclical issue where town red leads me to town Ulti and then Ulti couldn't be setting things up

ok i am here for the rest of the day, typing up a post of thoughts it may take me a good 15 mins or so

TotallyNotMI posted...

I've also been trying around with red as town configurations in my head and having Ben as the third scum over him. If I go that route we're back to too many vanilla and I have to switch out ctes for death to fix that.

But also in this world ulti probably is legit so then I have to flip everything I've been thinking around and ugh

My conclusion for you+Red being town is tat the team has to be Ulti/Ctes/Ben exactly or it has to include one of Chang/FG/IGCD because Ctes/Death and Ben/Death don't really work for pairings.

Meow1000 posted...

Ulti/Ctes/Ben

This is the conclusion red as town got me.

But then I think there's just too many vanillas.

And also I recognize this is selfish

But red calling me shit every third post he makes doesn't make me really want to see him as town.

I honestly think a number of nillas cannot really ever be properly assessed.

htaeD posted...

I honestly think a number of nillas cannot really ever be properly assessed.

MI is correct that logically speaking a town seemingly as weak as this one is shouldn't have 3 claimed powers all being scum.

TotallyNotMI posted...

And also I recognize this is selfish

But red calling me shit every third post he makes doesn't make me really want to see him as town.

TotallyNotMI posted...

And also I recognize this is selfish

But red calling me shit every third post he makes doesn't make me really want to see him as town.

I keep presenting you valid logic and you keep shrugging like nothing registers.

"You're wrong try again" isn't valid logic

Meow1000 posted...

MI is correct that logically speaking a town seemingly as weak as this one is shouldn't have 3 claimed powers all being scum.

That is fair
Also for all we know Lopen was a nilla.

TotallyNotMI posted...

I am extremely confident that scum has no path to victory without lynching me.

So death's insistence that I'm on any possible scum pairings gives me a lot of pause when I had started thinking he's town over ctes

Ok so who would need to have you lynched to win?

The issue I've been having is MI/Red feels like awkward town/aggressive town and it really leaves me at a loss at how to process the game.

MI feels like he's tryharding a crazy amount for someone who could've just passively lynched Red.

Red comes off as being sick of MI's shit.

(And for them to both be town means the POE basically just gets thrown right out the window)

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Ok so who would need to have you lynched to win?

Let's see if I can talk through this

Kirby/Chang are safe from lynch
Blade/Ulti can have at most 1 scum in them.
Ctes/Death can have at most 1 scum in them.
IGCD seems unlikely to be lynched

This leaves Red/Ben/MI as the three easiest lynch options.

Scum needs 3 more mislynches most likely. Goes down to 2 if IGCD shoots wrong when he gets his shot.

If red and I are both town, scum can probably sneak out a third but would need to lynch both of us.

If red is scum, I think him flipping makes me harder to lynch and scum would be pushing to get me lynched over him today. Which is why it's throwing my train of thought that ulti voted red over me and then said he wouldn't even be back.

Ctes/Ben/Red all being scum would need to lynch, what, me death and one of blade/Ulti which would be very tough. But pushing me first would be their best best.

Red being town would probably make me more sus of Ulti - he wasn't avoiding scanning red to report a guilty scan, he didn't want to have to report an innocent scan.

TotallyNotMI posted...

"You're wrong try again" isn't valid logic

Never done this to you.

Also red being town puts me back into the link between Ulti/ctes today

Ultimately I think this is why I'd prefer to lynch ctes today. Him flipping scum anything implicates Ulti and... probably makes me feel even better about red?

Meow1000 posted...

The issue I've been having is MI/Red feels like awkward town/aggressive town and it really leaves me at a loss at how to process the game.

MI feels like he's tryharding a crazy amount for someone who could've just passively lynched Red.

Red comes off as being sick of MI's shit.

Yeah, I kinda agree with this. It's extremely difficult to tell who the remaining scum could be since everyone left has played in a way that you could make town/scum cases either way.

I think I'd rather resolve the remaining Vanillas first before we start going back on power claims and inno scans, lest we get more crazy actions like me jailing Ulti to confirm that he is, indeed, Town Cop. Because if MI and Red are both town, we're in some deep trouble.

Though not gonna lie, I'm starting to think scum has a role whose nightkills can't be roleblocked, in a way that I'm not told if my action fails on them or not. That's a role who could get by fakeclaiming Vanilla with our Watcher dead.

I still wonder if the busdrive connects to all of this somehow.
But either way its curious that Ulti still said that he visited MI instead of Red when as scum he would not have to.

UltimaterializerX posted...

My vote is in the right place. If Red is scum they HAVE to lynch you literally today, because him flipping scum means youre off the table.

I dont know what this logic is.

If scum x is scum has to do this so x is scum.

When none of that is even happening.

Town
3. Chang
8. Kirby (can only be scum if ulti is also scum and they did something crazy)

99% Town
6. FD (1% scenario is that he intentionally sent to Red and then just lied about it lmao)
11. Ulti (I kind of agree with Kirby that Ulti would most likely send in kills, etc. if he were scum)

Town or some kind of 3p
7. IGCD (I mean, we could always just not let him hammer if we're that worried. He may just be nightkilled by scum after he achieves his condition. I have considered whether ctes' role (if he is truthful about it) can co-exist and I've decided they can. Neither player is probably above 50-50 odds of actually getting their vig shot so the average game outcome is probably less than one vig shot, which is fine).
1. Ben (I mean, Buddy's a little bit weird of a flavor claim but ultimately I think that's okay, and it's also ok if he's still hiding something he can do, which I suspect may be the case. If he's 3p, until he starts killing people I'm generally unconcerned with him at present)

with that out of the way:
____

Leaning town now
4. Ctes (He eventually got mad, though at us and not the role which is not exactly what I'd expect but it's getting close. The way the role functions I think can fit for town. I'm ok with it. I have a plan to propose for how to use it tonight but I'll get to that in a followup post)

50/50ish
9. MI (I'm more inclined to trust a single night roleblock than a cop scan at this point. While he couldn't have sent in the kills, he could be the bus driver / redirector assuming that role exists. I think his arguments and conclusions are a little outlandish and conspiratorial but that doesn't mean that they're fake)
10. Red (Red basically has nothing going for him in terms of roles, scans, or anything. Deep down I still feel like he's town but it's not a bad lynch today for info tbh)

Blade category
2. Blade (I'd like to see him stop a kill tbh. If he's actually a doctor I feel like he ought to be dead by now. See my plan in the next post. Frankly it's been annoying me on a personal level how it feels like he responds to almost every post I make and says something very obvious as though it's new information. He's also been setting up a mislynch on me later for a while now, which feels to me like setup for his team to win an endgame, though I imagine scum will have to kill me before that point anyway)

Scum prob
5. Death (Scans be damned. He got caught as a major bystander on yesterday's lynch and nothing about his answers for that today have seemed particularly impactful in addressing that. Voting to avoid a tie is crazy. Multiple people have said the scan is basically the only thing keeping their votes away, so I'm not sure that should be enough to keep him safe for much longer).

Kirby321 posted...

Yeah, I kinda agree with this. It's extremely difficult to tell who the remaining scum could be since everyone left has played in a way that you could make town/scum cases either way.

I think I'd rather resolve the remaining Vanillas first before we start going back on power claims and inno scans, lest we get more crazy actions like me jailing Ulti to confirm that he is, indeed, Town Cop. Because if MI and Red are both town, we're in some deep trouble.

Though not gonna lie, I'm starting to think scum has a role whose nightkills can't be roleblocked, in a way that I'm not told if my action fails on them or not. That's a role who could get by fakeclaiming Vanilla with our Watcher dead.

I've been thinking about that for a while which is why passive roleblocker was something I was willing to accept the existence of.

Of course that didn't last an hour but

Someone walk me through the "if Red is scum, MI must be town" theory.

Is there no possibility of MI and Red both being scum?

htaeD posted...

I still wonder if the busdrive connects to all of this somehow.
But either way its curious that Ulti still said that he visited MI instead of Red when as scum he would not have to.

The issue with the drive is Red is the one who claimed it. The only way scum Red claims it is if FD is town and he thinks FD knew he ended up targeting hm.

UltimaterializerX posted...

If scum had unblo??

Bro, look at these night kills.

Unblockable in this context means can't be roleblocked. Not that it can't be saved.

Kirby321 posted...

Though not gonna lie, I'm starting to think scum has a role whose nightkills can't be roleblocked, in a way that I'm not told if my action fails on them or not. That's a role who could get by fakeclaiming Vanilla with our Watcher dead.

! Your roleblock literally caught scum dead in the water. Why would you say this unless you know they have that role and Wallz was a bus by your team.

Votals
[2] Red - (MI), (Ulti), Ben, Ulti
[2] MI - (Ulti), (Ulti), Kirby, (Ulti), Ctes
[2] Ctes -FD, (Kirby), (Ulti), MI
[1] Death - Chang, (Kirby)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day ends Sunday, May 12th at 6 PM EST.

30 minutes remaining.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

! Your roleblock literally caught scum dead in the water. Why would you say this unless you know they have that role and Wallz was a bus by your team.

Because Wall had a role that was forced to send the kill in order to activate it's power.

Scum was trying to get Wall watched.

Kirby321 posted...

Someone walk me through the "if Red is scum, MI must be town" theory.

Is there no possibility of MI and Red both being scum?

I'm not the right person to answer this but for how many of my thoughts are being waved away with "thats too much scum theater" red/Me as scum together would be a LOT of theater

5. Death (Scans be damned. He got caught as a major bystander on yesterday's lynch and nothing about his answers for that today have seemed particularly impactful in addressing that. Voting to avoid a tie is crazy. Multiple people have said the scan is basically the only thing keeping their votes away, so I'm not sure that should be enough to keep him safe for much longer).

I felt like a bystander true, because I honestly was unable to decide much like I am today
I didnt vote him to just avoid a tie, and I have already explained myself
You should not just brush off my entire series of answers with a "meh, not impactful."

Kirby321 posted...

Someone walk me through the "if Red is scum, MI must be town" theory.

Is there no possibility of MI and Red both being scum?

My only thing to add is that Red did vote MI day1 and left the vote there. Thats all I know.

I have enough doubts with Red I'd rather lynch ctes and see what happens with Ulti tonighy

UltimaterializerX posted...

Very possible but if its only one of them Red is way more likely given the weird bus last night.

Yes more likely by the weird bus that i am the only one with evidence of.

PROPOSED PLAN IF YOU TRUST CTES AND IGCD ARE TOWN

IGCD gets to hammer today and earns his vig shot
ctes bets his life that IGCD is the nightkill to earn his vig shot

Scum is forced to either kill IGCD and confirm ctes town or let him be and ctes removes himself as a mislynch option

and town is guaranteed at least one vig shot tomorrow either way.

note that this does NOT guarantee that kirby roleblock will stop the kill, as scum can no kill or shoot into ctes anyway to conceal themselves, but it earns us a vig shot tomorrow guaranteed and we'll have two flips next day phase

TotallyNotMI posted...

I'm not the right person to answer this but for how many of my thoughts are being waved away with "thats too much scum theater" red/Me as scum together would be a LOT of theater

I feel like after spending most of the day voting me on the condition that I am scum with both Ulti and red, you can't really make the theater argument.

changmas posted...

PROPOSED PLAN IF YOU TRUST CTES AND IGCD ARE TOWN

IGCD gets to hammer today and earns his vig shot
ctes bets his life that IGCD is the nightkill to earn his vig shot

Scum is forced to either kill IGCD and confirm ctes town or let him be and ctes removes himself as a mislynch option

and town is guaranteed at least one vig shot tomorrow either way.

note that this does NOT guarantee that kirby roleblock will stop the kill, as scum can no kill or shoot into ctes anyway to conceal themselves, but it earns us a vig shot tomorrow guaranteed and we'll have two flips next day phase

The issue is if scum does have a redirect and can use it again they can completely wreck any advance planning.

changmas posted...

PROPOSED PLAN IF YOU TRUST CTES AND IGCD ARE TOWN

IGCD gets to hammer today and earns his vig shot
ctes bets his life that IGCD is the nightkill to earn his vig shot

Scum is forced to either kill IGCD and confirm ctes town or let him be and ctes removes himself as a mislynch option

and town is guaranteed at least one vig shot tomorrow either way.

note that this does NOT guarantee that kirby roleblock will stop the kill, as scum can no kill or shoot into ctes anyway to conceal themselves, but it earns us a vig shot tomorrow guaranteed and we'll have two flips next day phase

Huh, thats basically my plan but better.
I didnt consider that we could use the bet to force scum to shoot Ctes' target.

I thought IGCD could shoot tonight

ctesjbuvf posted...

I feel like after spending most of the day voting me on the condition that I am scum with both Ulti and red, you can't really make the theater argument.

If it's wrong when I say it it can't suddenly be right against me

Meow1000 posted...

The issue is if scum does have a redirect and can use it again they can completely wreck any advance planning.

Does Ctes' power even target?

Meow1000 posted...

The issue is if scum does have a redirect and can use it again they can completely wreck any advance planning.

how

IfGodCouldDie posted...

! Your roleblock literally caught scum dead in the water. Why would you say this unless you know they have that role and Wallz was a bus by your team.

Because I would have thought scum would've fakeclaimed power to dissuade me from roleblocking them. That's the whole reason I gambited on jailing Ulti last night. But he's completely innocent, and everyone else's power claims barring Ctes' seem fairly legit. And if there's more than one scum left, I highly doubt they're all hiding in the power claims.

I'm just losing my mind trying to figure out who I need to jail to stop a kill. And I'm beginning to wonder now if scum actually has some way to bypass my night action, which would mean that they claimed Vanilla and wouldn't be implicated by me jailing them and a night kill still happening.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I thought IGCD could shoot tonight

if scum can still do redirection stuff it is far better for him to shoot during the day