Board 8 > Community Mafia Topic 16 - Votals Numerology

(+) Yeah! (+)

I guess that's the 4D chess angle. I'll throw that out then...

If I'm wrong in reading him as town ALL GAME just about every time he posts, then I legitimately cant read him and will have to bow down at end game. I dont want to live in that world.

UltimaterializerX posted...

##Vote: FD

Thank you and good night.

Wall is also scum with him btw. Soul read. Im town, so Wall not throwing shade at me immediately is

As much as Id like to sheep Blades logic re SBell, every time Blade tunnels someone on day one its like 50% that player is doctor. No thanks.

*sigh*

Something I've been holding back saying all game even though it nags at me. Does anyone think time travel Ulti is a slip? Ulti, why did you make this post again?

I'd also say for the record here

I'm not even voting Ulti right now!

PunishedBen posted...

Well there was that thing Ulti said about Lopen earlier this game.... I didnt want to dig it up, but

Do we really think Ulti is on the team that shot Lopen?

Wasn't Lopen killed N1 in Simpsons Mafia with a scum Ulti? Granted, it had a scum Corrik and scum Ctes on it, too, but I've mentioned Lopen's kidnap as something scum Ulti could do.

That being said... I've already gotten insane flack for jailing the claimed Cop. I'm hesitant to say he's scum. I just don't see scum Ulti claiming Cop and not being egotistical enough to believe nobody would dare roleblock the claimed Cop and use the nightkill in his teammates' stead. I just don't see a world where scum Ulti randomly avoids doing the nightkill on N3.

The only world where that's possible is Ulti having a role that ignores roleblocks in such a way that my action still appears successful. But then Ulti wouldn't have even known he was roleblocked before I claimed it.

The world where ulti didnt submit the kill is where each scum can only submit one action and Ulti is performing a power role each night.

FD tracks as NOT evil Pierce but I do think normal Pierce could fit a 3P role

UltimaterializerX posted...

Fun chat guys.

I was actually just going to respond to that last post but got distracted.

I had been really liking FD's content until you pointed out that it has been very flavour centric, disguised as solving. So I definitely am no longer a fan of his lol. The points you bring up about Ben and FD having similar niches I don't really get, can you elaborate on why?

Eh? I don't see how pineapple vendor and neighborizer are anywhere close to being equal...

Went back digging and reminding myself and everyone else that Ulti really is the first one to go after Knightz at all. And he's the reason that Knightz get stressed out enough to claim Luis Guzman before having his flavor prepared.

And does this really sound like Ulti talking to a scummate?

UltimaterializerX posted...

Why are you scared though?

Like, shit happens. Sometimes you get shot, or scanned guilty, or mislynched. Why would that bother you?

I ask this because I was convinced you were scum last endgame, based on some very bad logic on my part, and you very easily tossed my arguments aside because a) it was an invalid argument and b) you were town power with a proven role.

So why are you scared this game? It cant be because youre town power, because I just watched you toss that aside less than a week ago. Theres a different reason and Id like to know what that reason is.

UltimaterializerX posted...

##Unvote
##Vote: Knight

No hard feelings, ok? Youre clearly a really good kid and just got very unlucky this game. But hey, shit happens. We all have bad scum games when we first start playing.

Go read Newbie Mafia, uh 8? 9? The one where I claimed miller actor. It was a disaster.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/e/eaa7c2dc.jpg

He is directly responding to Ulti's vote when he claims. A claim that he was not ready for, and the scum team did not have ready to go for him

These two cannot be aligned. I'm moving on to another person, because I think I've proven my point

UltimaterializerX posted...

They both fall into the category of sending messages at night. If I had either role, Id counterclaim the other. Its bizarre this never happened.

I dont find them similar, plus they are both "provable" so there was not really anything to doubt.

That said, I'll look at FD next. Pierce could just be a bad guy. He is a bad guy in the show, very often plays the villain in the story and in the group. Like in the DND episode, Paintball episode, etc.

PunishedBen posted...

And he's the reason that Knightz get stressed out enough to claim Luis Guzman before having his flavor prepared.

Except I was the one who pressed him on flavor justification which turned Knightz flub into a full on rout. Ulti prompted the claim, sure, but I attacked it's validity.

.

Kirby321 posted...

Eh? I don't see how pineapple vendor and neighborizer are anywhere close to being equal...

They aren't, and Ulti conveniently fails to realize that I think Ben is scum.

Why would I need to "counter" a claim that is nothing like mine, and why would I attack it based upon 'role counter logic' when I'm already attacking it based on it's OWN merits (which suck).

Nothing Ulti just said was correct. He might think it is because I just had a busy fucking day and so he hasn't seen me in over 12 hours and he has a goldfish memory. But this game is over 2 weeks old now and he does not read old topics. Of course he can't remember even the shit that happened on day 4 and 5 that completely contradicts what he's saying.

But I'm not gonna bother refuting it point by point. He's either scum with Lopen's role, and nothing he says is relevant, or he's town in a late game scenario and his name is Ulti, and nothing he says is relevant. I'm curious how many people he's been convinced are scum today. Over/Under 6?

Oh my god, sorry, I try to look for FD and the side of my eye catches another post about Ulti.

wallmasterz posted...

Ulti is most likely town. He said he doesnt know the flavor, but hes clearly engaged in the game and seems energized. This means he likes his role. Not vanilla. He would need to like the flavor to get pumped up like this while vanilla.

Ulti could also be a fun scum role. But despite him being wrong at least in part, I like how he came out the gates.

Bruh. No scum calls out their own scummate to say that they are not vanilla. This is a messy post from Wallz in the first place with information he's seeing about Ulti that doesn't need to be said, but there is no reason for a scummate to lock their own team member into a non vanilla claim.

I'm at the point I'd sooner believe Blade is lying and didnt kill anyone last night than I'd believe Ulti is scum (I am not ready to believe that either)

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Except I was the one who pressed him on flavor justification which turned Knightz flub into a full on rout. Ulti prompted the claim, sure, but I attacked it's validity.

I was going to get to that next, and I've mentioned before that this post is a good look for you

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Knightz, without quoting, does your role pm explain WHY Luis Guzman is a vanilla, rather than having powers?

Now that I have to be extra careful with clears though, I dont think its as solid as what Ulti did which got a telling reaction out of Knightz and caused the bad situation he was now in. Now that he has already committed to claiming a flavor, anyone could have asked the question you asked because it would have been on the back of everyone's minds at that point. Better to get ahead of it then ignore it if you were scum.

PunishedBen posted...

Now that I have to be extra careful with clears though, I dont think its as solid as what Ulti did which got a telling reaction out of Knightz and caused the bad situation he was now in. Now that he has already committed to claiming a flavor, anyone could have asked the question you asked because it would have been on the back of everyone's minds at that point. Better to get ahead of it then ignore it if you were scum.

Yes, but if I'm his scummate then before I say anything I'm reaching out to knightz and telling him exactly what to say as a response. He had a role that I would literally have been bending myself backwards trying to save for even just a single night.

I would say my worst take on Knightz day 1 was that I thought taco(mzero) was more likely to be scum between the pair of them, but I legitimately felt like they were both scum that were just imploding.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

And where have you been? You still have the most votes, how do you feel about Wallz and Chang?

ItzKnightz posted...

I have been doing my shchoolwork for the day
Wallz feels like town
Chang feels like overconfident scum

Chang town. It really is that easy huh

Yo wait a minute.

Shameless defense of myself here. But if you believe Chang is town, you pretty much have to believe I am town. Chang told me about his role on night 1, which not only could take control of the lynch, but leaves him basically confirmed town. Why would scum not want to take Chang out night 1 if I had that information? No way he was getting doctor saved, because no one else knew about his role.

Never mind, I forgot there was no kill night 1. For all we know Wallz could have been aiming for Chang at my behest and gotten blocked. >_>

Well I will post our chat anyway

What I think would help is attempting to make the case for everyone still alive to be scum. Logistically, what would it take? There's only 9 of us left so without further ado:

.

1. Ben

For Ben to be scum he would have to be a Scum neighborizer. No one can refuse the fact that he is a neighborizer, it has been independently confirmed, but neighborizers by definition are not confirmed to be town, so he could be scum. He has also never been Jailed so he could have submitted any one of the night kills since night 1. He also said that the neighborizing action was a day action, so he could potentially be responsible for non killing night actions as well, such as vote suppression or redirection. I know that feels like a lot, but the two scum roles we've seen so far have both been completely stacked so it's feasible that it's just a small (4?) scum team that all have pretty busted roles.

It's also worth reminding that when it was time to full claim he attempted to lie about his claim, multiple times. Not only did he tell his neighbors to not say anything when he claimed vanilla, but he put them through some weird exercise of reciting something so he could "be bulletproof". Something he first said was true and then walked back after it justifiably made him suspicious. The justification for "tricking them into thinking he was bulletproof" still doesn't make sense.

.

2. Blade

For blade to be scum then Lopen will have had to be doctor with Blade claiming Lopen's role. In which case all the claimed doc saves will have been fake. Now that Kirby's night 5 target flipped vanilla that would mean that Blade only pretended to save IGCD and scum NK'd instead. Now scum might have been assuming ctes (if town) was going to bet his life on IGCD's death so the logic might have been to fake the doc save combined with a no kill to both "confirm" Blade is actually doctor and not even lose a night kill thanks to Ctes' bet.

.

3. Chang

Chang is definitely a lawyer, so he would have to be a scum lawyer. The last time a scum lawyer was used it was used with the caveat that it could only be used to take out a scummate. Scum put wallz in the dirt day 2 so for him to be scum it would have to have been a bus. Now that's not so much of a reach on account of Kirby JK'd wallz night 1, so it would have been as good a time as any to use it. Perhaps the best time even since the beginning of day 2 was met with chang getting a lot of suspicious for thinking Knightz was town. So in a scum Chang scenario, Chang decided NOT to lawyer Knightz day 1, because Knightz' role was too strong and was worth trying to save, but once it was clear wallz was likely going to be the lynch without or without his case there was no reason not to commit do it day 2. Chang has also never been jailed so there is nothing that prevents him from having submitted a kill or some other night action.

.

4. Ctes

Ah yes, Starburns the "bookie". He has demonstrated an ability to be unable to vote, but thanks to bad (or unlucky?) choices he has failed to provide any proof that the bets he is claiming even exist. I hate the flavor/role combination, I hate the terrible way he dragged out his claim yesterday, I hate that he seemed to think scum would somehow benefit from knowing about a bookie existing as he described when it legitimately seems to be the opposite. Not only would scum have to continue to potentially play around 2 saving roles in Kirby/Blade but now they would also have to consider who ctes thinks will die to try and prevent him from getting something good. There was no reason to painstakingly resist claiming this role if it's real. But in this scenario ctes is scum so the bookie role likely doesn't exist. Just ctes, likely Evil troy, having some kind of no vote/no voice condition that fights Evil Troy perfectly.

.

5. FD

I'm not scum. I'm not and I know I'm not. I know the rest of you lot don't have access to my PMs so feel free to make the case against me, but I assure you it's wrong. It would not only involve regular pierce being scum with the evil study group members, but also a lot of questionable scum team decisions that I would never sign off in. Lopen's vanishing? Not in a million years. Lopen was instrumental to my victory in Valentine's mafia and I was very disappointed/worried when he got eliminated that game. If I am on a team that has a day kidnap/janitor/whatever then it is being used on Red or Blade or Death, full stop. Death and Red were both town, so the only way I'm scum is with Blade and leaving the other two alive was a tactic to justify Blade not being targeted at night. I don't know who signs off on the Lopen vanishing and the night kills that we've seen, but it sure as hell isn't me.

.

6. IGCD

IGCD's sidequest was either a true thing that occurred or it was an elaborate ruse. In either case him being scum requires him to actually have access to a dayvig shot, which would be a rarity for scum. If I were thinking more clearly yesterday I would have asked IGCD to "##Kill" somebody just to prove the he didn't already have the shot, in which case the 3x hammer thing could potentially be fluff he added on to have an excuse not to make a decision for 3-5 days. The other thing that would have to be true is that IGCD would have to have gambited on town not having it's own regular ass day vig to shoot him as soon as he claimed. Now ctes (if truthful) may have access to a dayvig shot, but only after succeeding on a very unlikely bet with his own life at stake. I believe he also claimed his shot and his hammer conditions before Lopen disappeared so it's not like Lopen could have been day vig which allowed him the safety of a claim. So yeah, IGCD scum requires all of that and it also requires either a no kill last night or a kill on death.

7. Kirby

Kirby is nearly the least likely person to be scum and the hardest to make a case against, second only to myself. Kirby being scum requires some bizarre things. Either scum had TWO abilities that can roleblock (in which case town's only protection becomes doctor blade) or Lopen was Jailer and the role that vanished Lopen actually allowed Kirby to steal the abilities. In the show the evil study group want to send the regular study group members over to their evil timeline so they can replace them in the good timeline. So perhaps the shot Lopen was hit with did exactly that and Lopen was Elroy, Jailer. So not only would one of those things have to be true, but then Kirby would have needed to conspire against his scummate on night 1 after losing Knightz' incredible role on day 1.

.

8. MI

The final Vanilla. A scum MI could be any number of roles, most likely would be scum jack since it best explains a redirect that we've only seen the effect of on 1 night out of 5. It feels unlikely that there could be an every night redirector and not hit it more than once. MI was Jailed on night 3 when SBell died which is good, but it feels like MI could slot as scum with virtually anyone else. that's the nature of a vanilla claim i suppose but there isn't really anything that would conflict with the other actions we've seen that would necessarily prevent a pairing.

.

9. Ulti

Similar to Blade, the case against Ulti comes squarely down to Lopen. With the lack of a reliable information role (Sbell only halfway counts and it's very situational) the balance of town NEEDS a cop. So scum ulti absolutely requires cop lopen and there's no debating that point. Now if we assume that's what happens then the claimed "cop scans" from there do not look great for Ulti. He continually "scanned" people who weren't even the most logical choice to be lynched the following day, so he was merely providing extraneous information that wasn't really going to affect the upcoming lynch. If town that makes for terrible night action decisions, and if scum it implies he has deliberately been avoiding "scanning" his partner, unless his partner is Ctes in which case he faked an inno scan day 1 counting on there not being a cop source besides Lopen to contradict him.

.

And those are the cases. So if I had to order of who i think that makes scum?

Ben > Ctes > MI >>> Ulti > Blade >> Chang >>> IGCD > Kirby

##Vote: Ben

->

I don't really feel like there should be a world where none of the 6 vanilla claims were scum, but I genuinely feel more confident about Ben than MI. And hey if there's 3 scum then it is likely both, might as well go with the one who's claim and justification gives me the ick.

Never mind, its not even letting me copy/paste right now without copying each individual line, and I dont have time for that. I sincerely think it would make both of us look better lol

I did want to come back to this post really quick because it made me laugh so much.

UltimaterializerX posted...

They both fall into the category of sending messages at night.

One role spends the entire night talking to the person they targeted.

The person I target receives a PM from the host letting them know they received my love. I do not "send messages".

UltimaterializerX posted...

If I had either role, Id counterclaim the other.

Then you should probably have counter claimed Blade immediately this game. You both claimed roles that have a "c" and an "o" in them. Practically identical!

Forceful_Dragon posted...

It's also worth reminding that when it was time to full claim he attempted to lie about his claim, multiple times. Not only did he tell his neighbors to not say anything when he claimed vanilla, but he put them through some weird exercise of reciting something so he could "be bulletproof". Something he first said was true and then walked back after it justifiably made him suspicious. The justification for "tricking them into thinking he was bulletproof" still doesn't make sense.

Yes it does. It accomplishes so many things. If I neighbor scum I get to test their reaction to having to make me bulletproof. (AKA, what if they refuse or hesitate), and also makes them not shoot me. And then if I ever get shot naturally by scum it means that none of the people I neighbored thought that I was bulletproof. That's why I had to "trick them" so that it was convincing. And since my goal this game was to play the role like when I was Chrom in Fire Emblem mafia, I wanted to aim to only pull in town. My death would confirm them if we all stayed silent about it.

I even said as much to Chang on night 1 when I came up with this plan.

1. Overnight I realized the best way to use my role
2. So many neighbors claim it quickly as a way to "soft-confirm" themselves. I will need to play this like bodyguard last game and keep it a complete secret as long as possible
3. 
   
4. The ideal scenario is that I claim vanilla, make it far enough in the game where if we do ever have a cop or investigation role who has claimed and is obviously dying at night, I neighbor them to get one more scan off
5. 
   
6. Since you're able to town clear yourself I wont even need to hint that I have any exra reasons to think you are town, besides the day 1 feeling
7. FlykicksFTW
8. 05/02/2024 10:48 AM
9. And then I just aim to neighbor fellow town on subsequent nights so that my secret doesn't get out. Probably going this route instead of using it to interrogate people I dont like

I am just now realizing how funny it is and likely very disheartening to FD that I actually said I should play it like body guard last game lol. I really did learn nothing

PunishedBen posted...

My death would confirm them if we all stayed silent about it.

It would NOT.

Do you know for a FACT that scum team does not have access to a strongman or any ability that can deal with a BP? If you do then you know more than me.

Because your entire plan hinges on something you should have no way to know for sure as well as the assumption that you successful convinced them all that your were a bulletproof neighborizer who required them to cast a spell on your behalf to make the BP part real.

And hell, with two other claimed ways to stop a nightkill what would it have even meant to the people you lied to if there was a night with no kill? They will all have it in their head that you might have been responsible which would lead them down a false rabbit hole?

It's a colossally awful play with next to no redeeming logic.

A REAL town neighborizer breadcrumbs their target and if they are going to lie they tell a lie that will draw a bullet if the person they neighborized is scum.

So yeah, it has very little to do with your flavor of Buddy (which is still awful and wrong) and everything to do with your play of the role and logical justification around it.

Scum always uses the strong man early. Yeah my plan is based on hopefully getting lucky and not getting shot early, because if that happens then yeah, there's no plan to be had at all, and no info to get from my death. But I've gotta go for it

Or you just can't even understand why what you're proposing doesn't fit from a town perspective because you don't have a town perspective.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

It's also worth reminding that when it was time to full claim he attempted to lie about his claim, multiple times. Not only did he tell his neighbors to not say anything when he claimed vanilla, but he put them through some weird exercise of reciting something so he could "be bulletproof". Something he first said was true and then walked back after it justifiably made him suspicious. The justification for "tricking them into thinking he was bulletproof" still doesn't make sense.

I dunno dude, that's a very Ben thing to do as town. He's always had a reputation of doing insane stuff and somehow making it work.

... Like forgetting to submit a night action N1 and then committing to not protecting anybody as Bodyguard out of pure shame

I'm not gonna say Ben's idea was foolproof or optimal or even the smartest tactic he could have pulled off. But his idea was uniquely Ben .

For what it's worth, scum neighborizer Ben once neighborized third-party Chris in Star Wars + Pokmon Mafia and got subsequently eviscerated. I imagine scum neighborizer Ben is way more obvious than town neighborizer Ben.

As usual we just don't agree how to use the role I guess. I still don't under stand how its optimal to play it the way you propose. That sounds like it introduces just as many or more nebulous factors to the role that won't prove anything except end with me trying to get myself killed. And I don't think me dying is great for town clearly as evidenced by last game

By that I mean, as evidenced by my behavior with using my role last game. Not trying to say I did the right thing last game, just that it's how I acted

In fact, reading your list, FD, I felt a bit worse about Ctes. With such abysmal odds of proving his role, he could very easily fake it as scum.

I know we're running it back all over again, but we're running out of options at this point.

I think MI is a complacent but mediocre lynch. Ctes would be the spicier option that wouldn't really hurt town much if Ctes was telling the truth.

Though that would mean scum Ctes deliberately avoided shooting Ulti to instead shoot... IGCD? I feel like scum Ctes offs either me or Blade first.

Furthermore, I don't think Ctes agrees to kill off Isquen and SBell.

If anything, my faith on Blade being town cleared is wavering. I feel like Blade is the chaotic element that would absolutely explain the nightkills and the Lopen vanishing, because I don't think Wallz would ever be the first person to put forth those ideas. Blade strikes me as the kind of guy to absolutely go for a NK deliberately just to fuck with town.

Kirby321 posted...

Blade strikes me as the kind of guy to absolutely go for a NK deliberately just to fuck with town.

It was absolutely a ballsy Blade play that won them Bloodborne Mafia so it's not impossible. But it's also just not as likely as the others imo.

We still have to assume there are 3 scum and make sure to lynch scum either today or tomorrow. Even if Blade is one of them I think he'll have a scummate that's easier to hit.

Fair enough. In that case, ##Vote: MI

It's a lame and boring vote, but I think an important one to figure out which of our town powers are lying.

I don't think anyone could have ever predicted an endgame state where all the Vanillas are dead and all that's left is claimed power.

If MI is town, we don't really gain anything. But if MI is scum, it'll help us narrow down which town powers were interacting strangely with MI and are thus scummy.

All that my reevaluating is telling me is once again what I started the day saying, that I can't imagine MI not being scum in any remaining configuration. With Ctes being the most likely of the power claims to be scum

##Vote: MI

I see town is well on it's way to throwing this game and good riddance.

(Though Ben is likely scum #3 so I guess I used the word "town" loosely there)

FD ffs. We can disagree about how to play this role correctly to the if time, but you are not dumb enough to not understand the argument against claiming his to bet because it is dead simple. It's basically going your argument. Scum being forced to play around the claim exactly makes it near impossible to get the good rewards because the downside there is crucial.

*to the end of time

Look at that paragraph about me, that says absolutely no words about anything not relayed to meta stuff. Throw that s*** in the trash and look at my contributions against scum instead. Finding the Knightz' contradiction, Wallz' clear frustration I took credit for his lynch and pushed him.