Board 8 > Friends Mafia Topic 5 - The One Where Peaf Is In A Pinch

(+) Yeah! (+)

wallmasterz posted...

It didnt occur to me someone would get a roleblocked message for being jailkept. I assumed it would be a generic your action was unsuccessful or something of the sort. JK may have the same effect as RB (+ doc obviously) but theyre separate actions.

Traditionally you get the same message from being RBd as jailkept.

If you're scum this is kinda sad, there was no chance. Too much nuance in the roles that can't be fake claimed around, or it's too easy to trip up. I think scum seriously needed and assassin AND poisoner to have a chance.

Only remaining chance they have is for Peaf to shoot wrong.

wallmasterz posted...

Im getting old over here.

Yeah... I guess I'll reveal in in about 30-60 min.

After this evening, many people won't be able to play much before Peaf's 6pm deadline due to work, which makes holding back info anti-town. Sbell obviously agrees with this and will claim his N1 action shortly too.

A lot of bravado coming from foolmos corner.

it's likely he's just scum and chang stopped the night kill.

I'd go out on a limb and say that scum knows there is a jailkeeper and that's why foolmo freely claimed doc, gambling that the game couldn't possibly have both.

foolm0r0n posted...

Sbell obviously agrees with this and will claim his N1 action shortly too.

my n1 info has zero bearing on whatever you plan to do in 30 to 60 minutes and would not change peafa mind on whether or not to shoot me in cold blood.

but please, continue.

foolmo is REALLY worried about my N1 target, almost like he knows something already...

Obellisk posted...

and would not change peafa mind on whether or not to shoot me in cold blood.

Then you're fucked lol.

I'd suggest building a case to throw a scumbud under the bus, asap.

foolm0r0n posted...

Then you're fucked lol.

I'd suggest building a case to throw a scumbud under the bus, asap.

##vote: foolmo

Give to to me daddymo

could you fuck me a little quicker, I'd like to turn in soon.

MZero posted...

idk about tight lipped but I didn't want to push any lynches because then I'd have to vote and if I didn't mention that my vote counted double it could lead to inadvertent hammers (especially when I'm asleep)
I figured this way it wouldn't stick out that I haven't voted all game

I considered claiming I couldn't vote but I decided to be lazy instead

Why didnt you just claim that out of the gate? Not that you couldn't vote, but that you can double voter.

Obellisk posted...

could you fuck me a little quicker, I'd like to turn in soon.

Sure, just claim your N1

Obellisk posted...

A lot of bravado coming from foolmos corner.

it's likely he's just scum and chang stopped the night kill.

I'd go out on a limb and say that scum knows there is a jailkeeper and that's why foolmo freely claimed doc, gambling that the game couldn't possibly have both.

In that scenario there is no gamble, and Foolmo would want the game to believe both can exist. But also scum probably wouldn't use their results steal on Chang last night if they were expecting a Jailkeeper. That implies they didn't know what he was and wanted to find out. If anything, scum knew there was a doctor night 1 when Foolmo's results were stolen. So its more likely Chang is scum if we're using that argument.

PunishedBen posted...

In that scenario there is no gamble, and Foolmo would want the game to believe both can exist. But also scum probably wouldn't use their results steal on Chang last night if they were expecting a Jailkeeper. That implies they didn't know what he was and wanted to find out. If anything, scum knew there was a doctor night 1 when Foolmo's results were stolen. So its more likely Chang is scum if we're using that argument.

the gamble is that ctes didn't set it up with a doc and a jk. yes, his goal is to convince us they both make sense.

PunishedBen posted...

Why didnt you just claim that out of the gate? Not that you couldn't vote, but that you can double voter.

what's the point of being a secret double voter if it's not a secret?

MZero posted...

what's the point of being a secret double voter if it's not a secret?

extremely fair.

Ben (and Mzero since you're here), why is Sbell holding back his N1

Mzero i considered taunting you but didn't want to waste a night on a payback target.

MZero posted...

what's the point of being a secret double voter if it's not a secret?

So your regular vote counts as 2? So in votals you would be listed as 1 but the day would just mysteriously end with 1 fewer lynch than required?

foolm0r0n posted...

Ben (and Mzero since you're here), why is Sbell holding back his N1

idk but he probably targeted someone unclaimed and is locking them into claiming a moving or non-moving role based on his info

foolm0r0n posted...

So your regular vote counts as 2? So in votals you would be listed as 1 but the day would just mysteriously end with 1 fewer lynch than required?

right, or if there was a tie whoever I'm voting for would be lynched

foolm0r0n posted...

Ben (and Mzero since you're here), why is Sbell holding back his N1

I'd rather wait and hear his reason than try to think about it or guess

MZero posted...

right, or if there was a tie whoever I'm voting for would be lynched

interesting way to look at it, wonder how that would have played out with the Lawyer present.

Wait, Lawyer has nothing to do with ties... it just cancels a lynch.

I should have gone to bed.

How long do y'all wanna wait? Remember there's like 1.5 non-dayjob hours before Peaf's deadline

Hold on. The only ones who haven't claimed yet are Death and Dumey. Peaf said he's 100% on Death, so Dumey's the only one Sbell could possibly be waiting to trap.

You're really stalling just for Dumey Sbell? That's the "someone" you're talking about Mzero. It's 1 person. What kind of play is that lol.

Dumey also disappeared 30m into the day. If he was still here, Sbell would have no reason to stall.

Its been a long game
without you my friend
and Ill tell you all about it when I trap you again

everyone cries

I don't get the reference, wallz.

happy father's day before it's over though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgKAFK5djSk

happy Fathers Day to you too sbell, if youre indeed town. If not, boo you for the sentiment.

Vibes are telling me you are probably town and Dumey is probably scum so I have no problem with you holding out until he claims

Sbell you're with Peaf on Death being 100% town?

Sorry guys, I was doing some gaming with friends.

Kate Miller - TOWN Vanilla

If SBell was waiting on me and taunted whatever action I took, then nothing would have happened to him at all.

foolm0r0n posted...

Sbell you're with Peaf on Death being 100% town?

death looked better after review on day 2. but I don't recall saying I was 100% on him being town.

So the problem we have here is the lack of any roleblock claims N1 or N2, except for the claimed Jailkeeper. So that would mean that scum probably doesn't have a roleblock, and instead has some kind of strongman shot instead? That seems like not a lot of protection. Is Sultan's doppelganger supposed to be the scum roleblock? That only works if he knows the JK identity, and leave it up? Because it doesn't prevent Chang from using his JK right? Just means there are two JK actions in the night?

I don't like it, but with potential redirects in play as well, maybe the redirections are the answer to this and we shouldn't dismiss two protection out of hand.

Obellisk posted...

death looked better after review on day 2. but I don't recall saying I was 100% on him being town.

No, it's just what everyone assumes since you were waiting for Dumey here. You're good with Dumey's claim?

foolm0r0n posted...

You're good with Dumey's claim?

well even madness games need vanillas.

told you guys when you were saying IGCD couldn't be JUST a miller. Not EVERY role in a role madness game is going to be crazy. Just look at the amount of lynch manipulation with secret double voter, lawyer, and bringing in host confirmed spectators, in addition to redirects, results stealing, role stealing at night. Plenty of crazy misdirection happening in this game.

am I the only one that reads foolmo as scared I'm going to claim I targeted him both nights?

Obellisk posted...

am I the only one that reads foolmo as scared I'm going to claim I targeted him both nights?

i'm not really sure what the implication of that would be, so no i don't think so. >_> it wouldn't disprove anything he's said i think?

You already claimed your N1 as Dumey so why would I be afraid of that?

PeaceFrog posted...

Chang, i didn't even ask you. Why the quick claim?

Foolmo, I'm really confused by you saying at eod you weren't doctor but now you're saying you are. Was it to wifom scum?

was already on my way out the door IRL but seeing there was no kill made me feel like I blocked it. So I didnt want everyone to write up a bunch of analysis from an incomplete picture when I was gonna be gone for the next several hours. And then have to do it again in the morning.

after mulling it over I think its significantly more likely that I blocked the kill by protecting foolmo than blocking him sending the kill.

so with that said i think Im looking at IGCD, wallz, and Dumey based on the claims. I have absolutely no clue why Wallz would claim that if its his actual role. And like, yeah, i remember that ctes fake claimed it in whatever game but that still doesnt make it a fun or interesting role for o put into a game. would lean toward wallz fake claiming that as a tribute to ctes before ever believing thats his real role.

Dumey claiming Vanilla as well - I kinda thought he was hinting at power yesterday with how much he kept talking about enabling scans and such so its a little bit of a red flag to me that he isnt claiming a scanning role of some kind. Maybe had to change fake claims after Corrik flipped cop?

and did I miss Ben claiming? I know Death is asleep. SBell Im still okay with for now, though Im not totally sure I understand what the gameplan was on taunting away claimed doctor. did he make any hints as to his night 2 target? What if he died?

Anyway, this is kinda what I was afraid of. The are no town scanners in the game other than cop, and maybe taunter which is prosty-ish. Not a ton of info in these claims.

Death targeted me of course. His role lets someone else write a 200 word message. If you search for that number in previous posts you'll see he breadcrumbed it blatantly. Lopen also mentioned the number more subtly, so I figure Peaf was Death's N1 and told Lopen, which is why they are both inexplicably sure Death is town. I would link these but you bums can find it yourselves.

changmas posted...

I know Death is asleep

Is he in europe? Otherwise I would suspect he was silenced. That would be super dangerous. Instead of 3v7 it's 3v6 effectively, and if Mzero is actually mafia secret doublevoter (90% likely), it's 4v6 in terms of votes. If Peaf picks incorrectly, it becomes 4v4, scum wins.

LITERALLY HOST CONFIRMED TOWN
Peaf

WOULD NOT SHOOT IF I WERE PEAF
Dumey - Because I'm Town.
Wallz - I believe his role. I think it's probably a good interaction with Sultan's role, even if it kind of sucks for Wallz, because he can't play like a Vanilla and try to get himself shot.
Chang - See Below
Foolmo - I have no reason to disbelieve the two protection claims right now. I think taking a shot on these two is too much of a coinflip when it's Peaf's life on the line. If Foolmo is scum, there's zero chance of him winning the game on his own if we find whatever scum mates he has left.
IGCD - We've seen Cop and Godfather flip, no real reason to doubt the Miller claim for now. IGCD hasn't been the most helpful after the end of D1, but no reason to shoot him.
MZero - Secret Double Voter explains not voting. Does not explain not participating in the game. MZero could easily have given more reads and played the game, but just not voted because of being absent for deadline. The games have been so low vote until deadline, that it would not have been difficult for him to play this way at all. I don't DOUBT the role itself, but it is a convenient claim that won't get caught by night actions, and can't be tested today because of the gun. Could potentially force MZero to hammer a lynch in the future to "prove" his claim, and feel somewhat confident that scum does not have a secret double vote.

COULD SHOOT
Ben - I think Ben is probably town because of the way he buried Sultan, and his play and reads D2 and on have been on point. I don't think his D1 play was great outside of the very end, so it's POSSIBLE that he's scum that bussed and has found his groove. He is likely town, but shouldn't be REMOVED from PoE.
Death - Was a large focus for a portion of D2 and survived the investigation. Could be scum that just hasn't had to put his neck out at any point this game yet. Only had to defend against a weak TMI accusation that he had every justification to make with assuming Twins could possibly be flavor justified as double voter by being two characters. Can't remove from PoE.
SBell - Taunt has not been proven to be done, and we know there is something out there stealing town results. SBell has ridden a town read from D1 because of the way he interacted with me the whole game, and had a decent vote on Sultan at the end of D1. SBell COULD be scum here who jumped on to bus Sultan D1 (I know SBell has bussed in the past with little hesitation). Definitely should not be removed from PoE.

I don't have a strong scum case on anyone, but I kind of think Death might be the answer here. I know I'm definitely on the table as well for Peaf when he's making his decision. All I can really say is I would accept being lynched for killing Corrik the way I did, but I don't want you to die with me, so I must make the case that I am town. Shoot scum today, and if we're in a good position tomorrow, lynch me with MZero hammering me, and the game becomes a lot clearer to solve with far less distractions.

Oh I guess I should have refreshed to see Foolmo's post about Death. Hmmmm.

foolm0r0n posted...

Anyway, this is kinda what I was afraid of. The are no town scanners in the game other than cop, and maybe taunter which is prosty-ish. Not a ton of info in these claims.

Death targeted me of course. His role lets someone else write a 200 word message. If you search for that number in previous posts you'll see he breadcrumbed it blatantly. Lopen also mentioned the number more subtly, so I figure Peaf was Death's N1 and told Lopen, which is why they are both inexplicably sure Death is town. I would link these but you bums can find it yourselves.

What was the message he had you write?

The other thing I noticed looking back at the Peaf gun thing is that I want to crunch the math on it. because its a double town kill if he shoots town but a vig shot if he shoots scum. So theres inherently a lot of risk to that. Theres theoretically a third possibility which is for peaf not to shoot anyone and to treat it as a poison. I definitely dont think we should opt into that scenario unless its absolutely necessary though.

on my phone so Id like someone to check over the numbers and make sure Im calculating this correctly

worst case scenario
10 players alive -> 8 players if peaf shoots wrong -> 7 after town mislynch -> 6 if foolmo and I lose a 50/50

if theres 3 scum remaining the game might be over at that point. Or i guess MZero double vote would be the only chance for us. Actually, they might not even have to shoot between foolmo and I if theres 3 scum left, they can shoot MZero too.

obviously thats the worst case scenario but thats scary how quickly it could be over.

but on the flip side if peaf shoots scum the numbers look very good for town, and it seems like its our only chance to have a vig shot. we just need to be really sure were hitting scum and not double suiciding town

foolm0r0n posted...

Is he in europe? Otherwise I would suspect he was silenced. That would be super dangerous. Instead of 3v7 it's 3v6 effectively, and if Mzero is actually mafia secret doublevoter (90% likely), it's 4v6 in terms of votes. If Peaf picks incorrectly, it becomes 4v4, scum wins.

hes European yeah

Oh, I didn't realize that we would have a normal lynch after Peaf's gun went off. So we could potentially test MZero today.

Oh god if MZero is scum doublevoter the math gets really bad

changmas posted...

Oh god if MZero is scum doublevoter the math gets really bad

Isn't scum doublevoter like super super bad mojo for hosts to do?

So I still don't quite understand how Death's role works, and would like clarification on exactly how much control he had over what these 200 post messages were, and when they were posted.

But clearly one theme of this game is misdirection during the day for the lynch. There's TOWN Lawyer confirmed. Host confirmed TOWN Spectator Hydra that gets to summon in spectators during the day. There's Death getting to send messages via other people covertly (?) Then there's a secret double vote to manipulate the hammer if the vote gets that close.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that ONE of these roles is scum to give them some counterplay, and it's not all just Town confusing themselves. If that's the case, Death seems like the most sure one. I think the game was designed with the idea that we might question whether Death or Peaf was the scum one of the two. But because of the gun being given to Peaf HOST CONFIRMING him as town, that leads me to think maybe Death is the odd one out here?

Someone tell me if I'm crazy and it makes sense for all of these roles to be town and scum has no day manipulation roles as a counter.

It would only help scum to explain Death's exact mechanics. You only need to know that he clearly breadcrumbed it, and host-confirmed town and uncontested doctor corroborated.

To be clear, if I was vig I would've shot Death, that's how sure I was he was scum. Now I'm sure he's town.

EDumey posted...

Someone tell me if I'm crazy and it makes sense for all of these roles to be town and scum has no day manipulation roles as a counter.

Which is why mafia doublevoter is actually balanced. Imagine if we actually had 2 cop scans today too.

foolm0r0n posted...

Death targeted me of course. His role lets someone else write a 200 word message. If you search for that number in previous posts you'll see he breadcrumbed it blatantly. Lopen also mentioned the number more subtly, so I figure Peaf was Death's N1 and told Lopen, which is why they are both inexplicably sure Death is town. I would link these but you bums can find it yourselves.

how does this make him town though?

MZero posted...

how does this make him town though?

Due to the details of the role, if scum had it, they would just never use it since it only helps town as far as I can tell.

Are you really trying to convince Peaf to put Death on the table here?