Current Events > New Majority Index suggests Kamala victories in play in NC and FL

(+) Yeah! (+)

Next week: Trump ahead in all battleground states

wackyteen posted...

If they're swayed by his presence, why wouldn't they be swayed to vote for who he champions?

Well the figures are the figures, even if I can't read their minds and tell why. The modern party does significantly worse when he's not on the ballot.

I would theorize that any enthusiasm for the modern GOP surrounds Trump, and some GOP voters simply do not care about the uncharismatic pandering suck-ups he promotes. There's no trust there and they don't have the same personalities. Trump's own VP didn't shill the agenda as hard as supporters wanted, which lends credibility to the notion that not every Trump suppprting politician is true MAGA (full blown fascist) and explains the skepticism on their end.

This creates an issue where a MAGA candidate wins the primary, motivates liberals to vote against them, turns away independents, but doesn't even pick up enough MAGA votes to compensate and gets landlisided by the Democratic opponent.

wackyteen posted...

However some of the situations in which Dems outperformed or won were in deep red territories where it should have been a GOP landslide. Smaller elections sure, but it does seem to indicate Democratic interest, fervor, and momentum.

To be clear Democrats certainly have more broad enthusiasm than the GOP and have since after 2016. A silent majority awakened for them in 2018 and hasn't let up, crushing midterms for them.

The problem they run into with the generals is that beyond a certain point they hit their ceiling in swing states and just run up the score in blue states, which ends up not mattering due to the EC, while facing the boosted Trump-led Republican opposition in said swing states. They can still win against these factors, like in 2020, but the obstacles produce an underperfornance by electoral metrics.